HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[ReHabs]

https://www.tvasports.ca/2023/05/09/le-dossier-matvei-michkov-vu-par-un-informateur-proche-des-russes

"The GM who will draft Michkov must prepare so that the timeline for his arrival in North America may resemble that of Artemi Panarin and Kirill Kaprizov." (after 6 or 7 seasons in the KHL).
-From a russian source.

It’s all speculation. There is nothing definitive. He has a contract — that’s all it is. If the Habs offer the appropriate deal, he will come. Every elite Russian comes over.

If he has ambition he will come if he doesn’t have ambition we are spared the agony of having a Yashin type or mercenary playoff letdown. It’s not that bad.

 

[Mrb1p]

*Slowly creeps in *

 

[WeThreeKings]

Has anyone watched Grant's "scouting breakdowns"

I appreciate the footage but the breakdowns are f***ing hilarious.

There's no voice over, just a highlight on the player and sometimes a textbox at the top.

You can tell if he likes someone, for example, "great play by the defender to cut the pass." vs. "has to do better"

But none of the textbox provides any analysis, it just functions as a play by play.

"Good outlet."
"Shot low for rebound."

 

[ReHabs]

*Slowly creeps in *

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Feeling like this is gonna be a BensonBoys Summer.

 

[skidcells]

*Slowly creeps in *

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I wont debate Will Smith vs. Zach Benson but from a purely statistical perspective, I must highlight the games tracked at 9. Sampling bias may be problem in this analysis.

 

[morhilane]

*Slowly creeps in *

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Is Smith a pure rush player or those In-zone stats are the result of how his team plays?

 

[Doublechin]

https://www.tvasports.ca/2023/05/09/le-dossier-matvei-michkov-vu-par-un-informateur-proche-des-russes

"The GM who will draft Michkov must prepare so that the timeline for his arrival in North America may resemble that of Artemi Panarin and Kirill Kaprizov." (after 6 or 7 seasons in the KHL).
-From a russian source.

Time to ignore local French media

 

[McGuires Corndog]

Time to ignore local French media

I’ve been ignoring the French media since about 2002.

*Slowly creeps in *

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Benson’s going to be a player. I’m happy with him at 5, all things considered.

I do think Smith has some more interesting upside, but I do see Benson making an impact in the NHL sooner.

 

[Mrb1p]

I wont debate Will Smith vs. Zach Benson but from a purely statistical perspective, I must highlight the games tracked at 9. Sampling bias may be problem in this analysis.

Its about the same sample that Will Smith needed to jump over Benson in most rankings. (U18s.)

 

[Supersonic]

I’m zen to the point where whoever we pick, I’ll be happy with

I just hope they also get a good goalie prospect this draft (or two)

 

[Mrb1p]

Is Smith a pure rush player or those In-zone stats are the result of how his team plays?

Not at all, Id say hes a better zone player than a rush player. Its advanced stats, so not super accurate. I just wanted to stir the pot .

The USHL is a run-and-gun league though, so that may be it. A lot less settling in the zone and a lot more tick-tack-toe'ing and goals after 1 or 2 passes. Theyre pure kids, its more offensive than the Q.

 

[McGees]

if Benson had a note from his bone Dr he’d go top 5.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Maybe that will be a bad thing.....dman stats can be very misleading as much of their production can be due to the style of play of their respective teams. Teams that don't score off transitions and cycle the puck low don't allow defenders to get touches and accrue easy secondary assists. Maybe the Reinbacher story will be a cautionary tale about the pitfalls of putting too much value on stats.

I am not saying that I think he will bust but I am wary of the comparisons that are being made between prospects from different years/teams who played in the same league.

That's a fair point, but to add to it a little, Reinbacher's stats suggest that there is room for offensive growth, as opposed to being fluffed by 2nd assists.

15 of his 22 points were primary, and 4 were on the PP.

And of course the stat that many people don't really talk about is TOI. TOI reflects what the person who knows his game the most, his coach, thinks about him. There's exceptions to that (remember Rotenberg's kid playing ahead of Romanov), but generally it's a fairly good gauge of who the coach thinks are his best players.

 

[Mrb1p]

if Benson had a note from his bone Dr he’d go top 5.

He doesn't really need one since hes 3 inches taller than Hutson

 

[le_sean]

Has anyone watched Grant's "scouting breakdowns"

I appreciate the footage but the breakdowns are f***ing hilarious.

There's no voice over, just a highlight on the player and sometimes a textbox at the top.

You can tell if he likes someone, for example, "great play by the defender to cut the pass." vs. "has to do better"

But none of the textbox provides any analysis, it just functions as a play by play.

"Good outlet."
"Shot low for rebound."

He’s one of those moronic old Oakland Athletics scouts from Moneyball. The game has passed him. I get the impression he watches one game from a prospect and decides whether he likes him or not right there, then tries his hardest to convince everyone else with these silly cherrypicking clips.

I’m also 100% convinced that when he claims “one former NHL scout told me…” that it’s always himself he’s referencing.

The problem is he has a following since he’s the only English speaking Habs-focused former scout with a platform. If we want Habs-related draft info, it’s really just him. I assume it’s because the others are still employed somewhere.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

*Slowly creeps in *

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I do like Benson, but I think advanced stats should be a very small factor in projecting a player's success 5 years down the line in the NHL.

 

[Mrb1p]

I do like Benson, but I think advanced stats should be a very small factor in projecting a player's success 5 years down the line in the NHL.

Good because his offensive production in the WHL is like the 5th best in 35 years, his play on the ice matches that too.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Good because his offensive production in the WHL is like the 5th best in 35 years, his play on the ice matches that too.

Dangles per 60 too low, bust IMHO ainec tbf.

 

[Mrb1p]

Dangles per 60 too low, bust IMHO ainec tbf.

Cant hear you over the sound of all the ankles hes been breaking.

 

[McGees]

He doesn't really need one since hes 3 inches taller than Hutson

He’s 6’ or 6’1” ?

 

[Mrb1p]

He’s 6’ or 6’1” ?

Hutson was 5'8 on a good day last year. Benson was measured at 5'10.5. Its like Plekanec size.

 

[Frank JT]

Time to ignore local French media

Denial?

 

[McGees]

Hutson was 5'8 on a good day last year. Benson was measured at 5'10.5. Its like Plekanec size.

I’m a big fan but also think they’ll opt someone with more size…maybe not, we’ll see!

 

[JoelWarlord]

I think Reinbacher is going to make a lot of scouts and fans look silly in the near future. He's much better than people give him credit for.

Yep. He's 100% going in the 5-8 range and people on HF and hockey twitter will clown on whatever team took him ahead of their preferred sub-6'0 CHL or NTDP winger for "drafting for need" and then he'll be an awesome first pair defenceman. I've come to recognize that a lot of times when people talk about "drafting BPA" or "skill" they really just mean flashiest player available and junior points.

 

[Mrb1p]

I’m a big fan but also think they’ll opt someone with more size…maybe not, we’ll see!

So Wood, Dvorsky or Reinbacher?

Yep. He's 100% going in the 5-8 range and people on HF and hockey twitter will clown on whatever team took him ahead of their preferred sub-6'0 CHL or NTDP winger for "drafting for need" and then he'll be an awesome first pair defenceman. I've come to recognize that a lot of times when people talk about "drafting BPA" or "skill" they really just mean flashiest player available and junior points.

Cue Will Smith