HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[SOLR]

Yeah you seem to have a difficulty grasping the semantics here. Savoie isn't an "above average" he's god damn near the top. He literally was in the top 3 of all the Kubota tests last year, he would rank first in this years Kubotas by 0.2 in both 30 meter and 30 meter with puck.

Being above average means you are better than Q1 and Q2 and are somewhere in Q3 or Q4, there is quite a difference between someone that clears the average by .5% and someone that clears it by 25% or more.

Anyway you define it, Benson won't have trouble at the next level with his speed.

I think I know Savoie more than most...

Savoie is above average, if you compare him to McDavid and Hughes, he's not close to them. Just because of his size most probably. If you are saying Benson is 5% over average, that's fine. But it's not material to the way he will play in the NHL.

Since you are bringing the Kubota tests.

Benson is only showing in the reaction test (playing fast...) in a year with no really good skaters in the CHL.

2023 Kubota CHL/NHL Top Prospects perform on-ice testing | Canadian Hockey League

Forty of the Canadian Hockey League’s top prospects for the 2023 NHL Draft competed in on-ice testing Tuesday ahead of the 2023 Kubota CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game on Wednesday in Langley, B.C. The Sport Testing Combine conducted by the Okanagan Hockey Group offered all players in attendance the...

chl.ca

Meanwhile, "elite" Guhle only makes the top 3 once. Drysdale is the elite skater in Guhle year. Guhle is above average, but I would say he's elite in athleticism (hoping the numerous injuries don't undermine him too much)

Top Prospects perform in Sport Testing Combine – Kubota Top Prospects

kubotatopprospects.ca

 

[Nicko999]

So now that the disappointment of not getting Bédard has settled, if we pick either Carlsson, Michkov or Smith would you consider the tank a success?

And what if the Habs pick either Dvorsky, Reinbacher, Leonard, Benson or Wood? Would you still consider it a success?

When you have a chance at a GENERATIONAL player, not getting him is a failure. That was a once in a lifetime opportunity to get a 70 goals scorer and we failed. Yes I know you need to be lucky to get him but it's still a disappointment.

Fantilli, Carlsson, Mitchkov and Smith are good consolation prices.

The others would mean a complete waste of a season. We need game breakers and superstars.

 

[KevSkillz4]

So now that the disappointment of not getting Bédard has settled, if we pick either Carlsson, Michkov or Smith would you consider the tank a success?

And what if the Habs pick either Dvorsky, Reinbacher, Leonard, Benson or Wood? Would you still consider it a success?

It's a succed if they don't draft Reinbacher at 5.

 

[The Great Weal]

Who is everyone's non-Michkov pick?

Reindog. THAT'S the tier where to me all the talent is comparable and you can afford to go positionally. I'll be absolutely livid either way though.

So now that the disappointment of not getting Bédard has settled, if we pick either Carlsson, Michkov or Smith would you consider the tank a success?

And what if the Habs pick either Dvorsky, Reinbacher, Leonard, Benson or Wood? Would you still consider it a success?

1. Yes
2. No

 

[WentWughes]

When you have a chance at a GENERATIONAL player, not getting him is a failure. That was a once in a lifetime opportunity to get a 70 goals scorer and we failed. Yes I know you need to be lucky to get him but it's still a disappointment.

Fantilli, Carlsson, Mitchkov and Smith are good consolation prices.

The others would mean a complete waste of a season. We need game breakers and superstars.

70 goal scorer? Wow those are high expectations. People are lost in the hypetrain, keep in mind he is not and will never be a McDavid like player. He has a small (although relatively strong) frame and NHL wise he will not stand out with his skating. I think it is a lot more likely then people realize that other players in the top 5 have similar careers production wise. Yes his shot is elite and he has a very high hockey iq and will almost certainty be at least a 40+ goal scorer, but all of Smith , Fantilli, and Michkov have point per game plus potential and Carlsson may settle below that mark but will have a great two way game. I see it if as long as we don’t go off the board and pick whoever is left of the top 5, the tank was a success.

 

[McGees]

Michkov per his agent plans to attend the 2023 NHL draft

Nice - will make things interesting.
Did Kuznetsov and Kaprizov attend during draft years?

 

[The Great Weal]

I really like the Nelson comparison for Dvorsky.

 

[Mrb1p]

I really like the Nelson comparison for Dvorsky.

Yeah similar inside game. Dvorsky has a much better shot than all the goalscoring centers though.

 

[ReHabs]

Who is everyone's non-Michkov pick?

BensonBoys rise up

 

[The Great Weal]

Yeah similar inside game. Dvorsky has a much better shot than all the goalscoring centers though.

Sure but I don't see that offensive creativity and dynamism of being a consistent 70+ point center.

 

[ReHabs]

What’s so special about Smith? Why is he considered defacto top5?

 

[Mrb1p]

Sure but I don't see that offensive creativity and dynamism of being a consistent 70+ point center.

I agree with you with the creativity, I do see consistent 70+ though, especially in the 10 goals a game NHL. He should be a 35 goals regular guy.

What’s so special about Smith? Why is he considered defacto top5?

His production at the u18

 

[The Great Weal]

I agree with you with the creativity, I do see consistent 70+ though, especially in the 10 goals a game NHL. He should be a 35 goals regular guy.


His production at the u18

I think he will be having more goals than assists most of the time so I can't see how he goes 70+ unless he plays on a stacked team.

What’s so special about Smith? Why is he considered defacto top5?

Really smart and incredibly talented player. He's a more skilled and smarter Cooley but not as complete or fast.

 

[ReHabs]

His production at the u18

Give it to me straight, in your opinion:

1. Would he have gone 1OA last year? If not, where would you rank in in the 2022 draft?
2. What’s his reasonable upside?
3. What’s his best NHL comparable?
4. What’s his trajectory timeline?
5. If all goes well, would he be a long-awaited protagonist (ie reliable point producer) for the Habs?

 

[The Great Weal]

Give it to me straight, in your opinion:

1. Would he have gone 1OA last year? If not, where would you rank in in the 2022 draft?
2. What’s his reasonable upside?
3. What’s his best NHL comparable?
4. What’s his trajectory timeline?
5. If all goes well, would he be a long-awaited protagonist (ie reliable point producer) for the Habs?

I'll provide my opinion.

1. Totally depends on the team drafting him. Habs probably still go with Slaf since they like his rarity and Devils still pass up on him since they are loaded at center already and want size up front. I do think that realistically, the tiers for this draft are Bedard gap Michkov huge gap Fantilli/Carlsson gap Smith. Smith's U18 really helped his cause, but worth mentioning that Michkov was the U18 MVP....at 16 years old.

2. 70-80 points.

3. Zegras.

4. A year in college then probably another half a year in the AHL.

5. I don't see Smith being a top 10 point producer in the league but he would be the most offensively gifted player in the system (or at least comparable to CC).

 

[waitin425]

There are always a couple of bonkers picks in the draft. Any scenario can happen after Bedards name is called at 1.

It is conceivable with Michkov at the draft that the Ducks pick him #2, Jackets end up picking Carlsson, Sharks go for Smith and we end up with Fantilli. You just never know where teams have players ranked. Take Bob's rankings as a consensus but not unanimous.

Wright is a classic example of that last year.

I just can't wait for this damn draft.

 

[morhilane]

Hughes also repeated multiple times, wanting to pick the player that will have the best/longest NHL career.

Trying to weed out the injury prone players/playstyles in advance I see.

Totally not trauma from the last two seasons.

 

[Draft]

I agree with you with the creativity, I do see consistent 70+ though, especially in the 10 goals a game NHL. He should be a 35 goals regular guy.


His production at the u18

Dvorsky does just about everything you could want from an 18yo off the puck. Very strong defensive game from what I've seen. He's making an impact all over the ice and doing it consistently. The creativity and flash is... lacking, but he's still a very productive player. Put him with Leonard and Perrault against the trash that was group B and I'm not surprised if he puts up close to 20pts.

I don't agree with the narrative that his upside is capped at a 2C. I think people see a well-rounded, pro-style player and think they're limited because they don't rely on low percentage plays (Smith's slot pass attempts?) and flashy 1v1 stick work to produce. I think there's a lot of room for offensive development for Dvorsky with the right team.

 

[Nicko999]

70 goal scorer? Wow those are high expectations. People are lost in the hypetrain, keep in mind he is not and will never be a McDavid like player. He has a small (although relatively strong) frame and NHL wise he will not stand out with his skating. I think it is a lot more likely then people realize that other players in the top 5 have similar careers production wise. Yes his shot is elite and he has a very high hockey iq and will almost certainty be at least a 40+ goal scorer, but all of Smith , Fantilli, and Michkov have point per game plus potential and Carlsson may settle below that mark but will have a great two way game. I see it if as long as we don’t go off the board and pick whoever is left of the top 5, the tank was a success.

Yes, Bedard is THAT good. Obviously not saying he will score 70 next year but with the way scoring is up I see him hitting 70 goals in his prime (outside chance of 80 goals if everything goes well one season).

He will probably match McDavid in pts but have way more goals.

Also keep in mind he is 7 months younger than McDavid in his draft year. If Bedard was born 2 months later, he would have been 2024 draft eligible.
Draft year

McDavid : 2.55 PPG
Bedard: 2.51 PPG

McDavid : 0.94 GPG
Bedard: 1.25 GPG

Bedard is the best goal scoring prospect we have seen in our lifetimes.

 

[Nicko999]

Give it to me straight, in your opinion:

1. Would he have gone 1OA last year? If not, where would you rank in in the 2022 draft?
2. What’s his reasonable upside?
3. What’s his best NHL comparable?
4. What’s his trajectory timeline?
5. If all goes well, would he be a long-awaited protagonist (ie reliable point producer) for the Habs?

1. Absolutely, 100%
2. PPG, could hit 100 pts if it goes well
3. Jack Hughes
4. Probably 1 year in the NCAA, then NHL
5. Should be our best point producer

 

[WentWughes]

Yes, Bedard is THAT good. Obviously not saying he will score 70 next year but with the way scoring is up I see him hitting 70 goals in his prime (outside chance of 80 goals if everything goes well one season).

He will probably match McDavid in pts but have way more goals.

Also keep in mind he is 7 months younger than McDavid in his draft year. If Bedard was born 2 months later, he would have been 2024 draft eligible.
Draft year

McDavid : 2.55 PPG
Bedard: 2.51 PPG

McDavid : 0.94 GPG
Bedard: 1.25 GPG

Bedard is the best goal scoring prospect we have seen in our lifetimes.

Junior production is valuable but only to a certain extent. What is more important is the skill sets that will transfer to the next level. With McDavid his speed, agility, and ability to process the game and stick handle at top speed makes him head and shoulders above everyone else. Bedard his trait that is superior to every other player is his shot but I can’t see it translating nearly as impactful. Will Bedard have enough speed and agility to get separation on as you are predicting to almost score a goal a game at his peak? I doubt it. He will be a great player but people have to temper their expectations, in a league with bigger, faster, stronger and smarter players it remains to be seen how it will translate. I think 40+ is a safe bet in his peak but to predict 60+ without seeing a single game against men is wild.

 

[Playmaker09]

Give it to me straight, in your opinion:

1. Would he have gone 1OA last year? If not, where would you rank in in the 2022 draft?
2. What’s his reasonable upside?
3. What’s his best NHL comparable?
4. What’s his trajectory timeline?
5. If all goes well, would he be a long-awaited protagonist (ie reliable point producer) for the Habs?

1. Depends on team. I'd have the big 4 + Benson and Smith above all in 2022.
2. 25-30 goals, 80-90 points
3. Smaller Jason Spezza
4. I'd suggest 2 years, but I always lean towards slow-playing it. I think he has a lot of development to do in skating, strength and conditioning.
5. Yes. But I think he's the type of player who's more likely to help you win a Presidents Trophy than a Cup. Think Huberdeau.

 

[Deebs]

Well, he has stated that he wants to play in the NHL and he will be present at the draft. Surely he will do interviews with the teams. I think it's as likely as he is not there as 5 as he is.

I personally adore Fantilli, but to put things into perspective, he is 5 months younger than Cooley. (For what its worth) Could the Ducks drop a f***ing bomb and go with Michkov at 2? If they are convinced he is there in maximum 3 years?

I think no mater what, Bedard and Fantilli go 1-2....the rest is somewhat open.

 

[NotProkofievian]

What’s so special about Smith? Why is he considered defacto top5?

Dirty dangles.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Nice - will make things interesting.
Did Kuznetsov and Kaprizov attend during draft years?

Not sure on Kuz. Definitely not for Kaprizov he was a 5th rounder.

So now that the disappointment of not getting Bédard has settled, if we pick either Carlsson, Michkov or Smith would you consider the tank a success?

And what if the Habs pick either Dvorsky, Reinbacher, Leonard, Benson or Wood? Would you still consider it a success?

Option A is an outstanding success.

Option B is still successful but I think you're thinking about how we can ensure we are still picking top 10 next year without compromising development