HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[Jesker]

I want Smith or Michkov. Would be okay with Benson.

I'd legit rather trade down and take Moore ++ than Reinbacher or Leonard.

 

[le_sean]

I want Smith or Michkov. Would be okay with Benson.

I'd legit rather trade down and take Moore ++ than Reinbacher or Leonard.

The last two will be far better NHLers than Moore, and I like Moore.

 

[Garp]

With the infos in Bob's text, if you assume that the other Fantilli vote was a 3rd place, here are the votes per players :

Fantilli : 9 2nd and 1 3rd
Carlsson : 7 3rd, 1 4th and 2 5th
Smith : 1 3rd, 6 4th and 3 5th
Michkov : 1 2nd, 1 3rd, 3 4th and 5 5th
Leonard : 5 6th, 1 9th
Dvorsky : 5 6th, 2 11th
Reinbaker : Multiple 7th and 1 15th

 

[Ozmodiar]

Leonard put up 97 points in 57 games. He was ppg.

Similar to Tkachuk numbers, but MT a year sooner.

From Bobby Mckenzie:

Winnipeg Ice left winger Zach Benson is only 5-foot-10 and 170 pounds and doesn’t possess blinding speed, but is so smart, creative and competitive that he still checks in at No. 9 on our list. Eight of 10 scouts had him in their Top 10 but the other two had him between 15 and 20.


Between 15 and 20 eh? Interesting.

here’s a pic of the two scouts who have him ranked lower. Good old school hockey guys.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Fab Five? Super Six? Nah. More like a Sexy Seven.

Bedard
Fantilli
Michkov
Carlsson
Dvorsky
Smith
Leonard.

Give me one of those guys and I’ll be happy.

 

[Kennerback]

With the infos in Bob's text, if you assume that the other Fantilli vote was a 3rd place, here are the votes per players :

Fantilli : 9 2nd and 1 3rd
Carlsson : 7 3rd, 1 4th and 2 5th
Smith : 1 3rd, 6 4th and 3 5th
Michkov : 1 2nd, 1 3rd, 3 4th and 5 5th
Leonard : 5 6th, 1 9th
Dvorsky : 5 6th, 2 11th
Reinbaker : Multiple 7th and 1 15th

We can view it a different way:

2OA: Fantilli (9), Michkov (1)
3OA: Carlsson (7), Fantilli (1), Smith (1), Michkov (1)
4OA: Smith (6), Michkov (3), Carlsson (1)
5OA: Michkov (5), Smith (3), Carlsson (2)
6OA: Leonard (5), Dvorsky (5)
7OA: Reinbacher (multiple)

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

So no scouts had Leonard top 5?

 

[Kennerback]

Fab Five? Super Six? Nah. More like a Sexy Seven.

Bedard
Fantilli
Michkov
Carlsson
Dvorsky
Smith
Leonard.

Give me one of those guys and I’ll be happy.

Not a single scout put a top-5 in the 6-10 bracket
Not a single scout put a 6-10 in the top-5.
It’s as clear as it gets that there’s two very we’ll defined tiers with no overlap.

 

[Ozmodiar]

We can view it a different way:

2OA: Fantilli (9), Michkov (1)
3OA: Carlsson (7), Fantilli (1), Smith (1), Michkov (1)
4OA: Smith (6), Michkov (3), Carlsson (1)
5OA: Michkov (5), Smith (3), Carlsson (2)
6OA: Leonard (5), Dvorsky (5)
7OA: Reinbacher (multiple)

The 6th spot was tight!

Also interesting that 1/2 have Michkov in the top 4.

 

[Kennerback]

The 6th spot was tight!

Also interesting that 1/2 have Michkov in the top 4.

Basically a coin toss between Leonard and Dvorsky.

 

[Mrb1p]

With the infos in Bob's text, if you assume that the other Fantilli vote was a 3rd place, here are the votes per players :

Fantilli : 9 2nd and 1 3rd
Carlsson : 7 3rd, 1 4th and 2 5th
Smith : 1 3rd, 6 4th and 3 5th
Michkov : 1 2nd, 1 3rd, 3 4th and 5 5th
Leonard : 5 6th, 1 9th
Dvorsky : 5 6th, 2 11th
Reinbaker : Multiple 7th and 1 15th

Very weird that they ranked Michkov behind Smith then, as he has a lower voting score than Smith, and a 2nd place, which should give him defacto 4th spot.

 

[WeThreeKings]

So no scouts had Leonard top 5?

No one other than who was ranked in the top 5 received a top 5 vote.

 

[Pazucha]

In 30 Minutes:

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

No one other than who was ranked in the top 5 received a top 5 vote.

So what you're saying is


There's a chance

 

[Kennerback]

Highest pick for Reinbacher was 7OA. Multiple scouts picked him there.

 

[WeThreeKings]

So what you're saying is


There's a chance

There was always a chance but it seems very unlikely, just listen to Bob talk about the Michkov situation, I don't think he has any indication from the Canadiens organization they are interested in picking Michkov.

 

[ReHabs]

Why is Ryan Leonard being compared to Mike Richards? Richards had a nice career despite being a brutal skater but in a different era. Leonard's one of the best skaters in the top 10 of this draft.

Undersized guy who had a lotta heart and grit and was a playoff player with a lotta character.

Leonard would be very successful to have the on-ice reputation Richards enjoyed.

Highest pick for Reinbacher was 7OA. Multiple scouts picked him there.

Biggest surprise of the day imo

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Coming out of two tank years with Slafkovsky, Mesar, Leonard, and X as our first round picks is really unfortunate and will be widely criticized in the near future. I have hope this won't be the case.

The writing is on the wall.

 

[Pompeius Magnus]

Getting Nadeau at #31 would be pretty rad. In a lot of ways he's like a lite Bedard, lots of offensive tools to develop with him. His shot alone could become a legit pro plus weapon.

 

[Skip Bayless]

Getting Nadeau at #31 would be pretty rad. In a lot of ways he's like a lite Bedard, lots of offensive tools to develop with him. His shot alone could become a legit pro plus weapon.

Underrated definitely. He's one of my favorites for the panthers pick.

 

[JoelWarlord]

Its just a poor application of statistics and or poor reasoning to think a 181 cm player is in a better spot than a 178 cm one.

Again I don't really care to go into the weeds about this much because I like Benson a lot and don't think his height is really a problem, nor do I view Leonard as some hulking Lucic-style power forward, but you are doing the same thing again. You keep rounding Benson up and rounding Leonard down, and then using that difference to argue it's a tiny difference after arbitrarily rounding Benson to be a little taller and rounding Leonard to be a little shorter than reality.

5'9.75 and 5'11.75 corresponds to 177cm (177.165) and 182cm (182.245) for a slightly over 5cm difference, which taking the 184cm mean and 5.5cm standard deviation you provided (idk if the actual std. dev. is 5.5cm) puts Leonard at -0.364 and Benson at -1.273 standard deviations, nearly a difference of 1 standard deviation between the two. That's not gigantic but it is enough that it matters. It's approximately the same difference as Harvey-Pinard vs. Suzuki and that's without talking about weight/build either (yes, I understand that Benson will bulk up with NHL training/nutritionists too, but he's not going to end up thicker than Leonard).

It's fine to prefer Benson at 5 but it's disingenuous to keep rounding Benson up by a quarter inch and rounding Leonard down by three quarters of an inch and then say "look, they're only an inch apart who cares!"

 

[Draft]

I’m not at all keen on taking wingers with our first pick in back to back drafts.

 

[Skip Bayless]

I’m not at all keen on taking wingers with our first pick in back to back drafts.

I get it, but if you consider them the BPA...youre not gonna go out of your way to diversify your picks at the expense of upside.

 

[le_sean]

I’m not at all keen on taking wingers with our first pick in back to back drafts.

Well one was a LW and the other is a RW. It’s also ignoring the fact they traded for a good young centre in the last draft and might even trade for another good young centre in this one.

We should not have an issue with drafting wingers when the top ones in the system before last draft were Farrell and Roy. Nothing special.

 

[WinterLion]

So no scouts had Leonard top 5?

No but at least 2 scouts feel that Dvorsky is part of a "top 6"