HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[SOLR]

#11 Wood
#12 Barlow
#13 Moore
#14 Pellikka
#15 Yager

This is my exact list outside of Fantilli trading with Michkov and Yager at 10.

 

[Mrb1p]

Still time to trade up... or get that Pittsburgh 14th pick in a trade that includes taking on the Granlund contract.

We need the most picks possible in the first four rounds, i dont want to trade up.

 

[KevSkillz4]

If Habs don't trade 31th overall, they will have good player aswell!

 

[MarkJ]

21 Ritchie
22 But
23 Gulyayev
24 Sale
25 Musty
26 Lindstein
27 Cristall
28 Bonk
29 Gauthier
30 Brindley
31 Nadeau
32 Heidt

 

[Vachon23]

Riley Heidt or Andrew Cristal could be good options at 31

 

[MarkJ]

so no goalie in top 32

 

[NotProkofievian]

21 Ritchie
22 But
23 Gulyayev
24 Sale
25 Musty
26 Lindstein
27 Cristall
28 Bonk
29 Gauthier
30 Brindley
31 Nadeau
32 Heidt

Sale, Musty, Cristall are all trade up candidates for me.

 

[Mrb1p]

I get a kick out of Zach Bensons ranking though, lol.

He falls 4 spots because... he didnt play at the u18s, I guess?

Honestly if Im an agent I tell my kids to go the NCAA/Pro route rather than CHL at this point, lol.

Every single player that didnt make the u18s fell or stayed at the same spot, while, at least in the 20s, every single player that played in the u18s at least stayed neutral or gained a spot. Ritchie and Reinbacher are the only ones that played/didnt play that moved the other way, and tbh, Reinbacher played in the WC, so recency bias applies too. Barlow was injured, so Im not counting him.

Riley Heidt or Andrew Cristal could be good options at 31

The friggin' dream! This draft is so good we might get a better forward at 31 than we did at 1 last year.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Reinbacher over Benson surprised me, but guess it shows in the real world there are concerns over Bensons size.

 

[Mrb1p]

Sale, Musty, Cristall are all trade up candidates for me.

Id rather pick the faller and get one more player than move up, IMO.

Well, assuming the price is a 2nd

 

[HomeAndHome]

So Reinbacher does come in as the top ranked D on Bobby's list as expected at #8.

Now the biggest question for me is when he is picked. I know a lot of people are expecting Arizona, but there always seems to be a D taken in the top 5.

I wonder if this is the year that trend is broken. As I've stated before I'm hoping for a game changing forward this year, but if HuGo and the Habs scouts see Reinbacher as a top pair D I could see Mtl keep the trend going. Maybe Anaheim with Zegras/McTavish could reach? Hard to see them pass on Fantilli though. I can only see Columbus going with Fantilli/Carlsson. SJ could really be a wildcard.

Next week is going to be interesting, that's for sure!

 

[Mrb1p]

Reinbacher over Benson surprised me, but guess it shows in the real world there are concerns over Bensons size.

Size concerns that do not exist for same height Bedard and Michkov?

 

[JoelWarlord]

The perception that the 2 and a half centimeters between Leonard and Michkov would make one a playoff beast and a playoff bust is so unscientific its giving me deep state theory vibes

THERE'S TUNNELS DOWN THERE TIMMY, I TELLS YA!

You keep using this line about a 1-2cm difference over and over but the measurements at the combine were 5'9.75" and 5'11.75". A quarter inch below 6'0 vs. a quarter inch below 5'10 is not a trivial difference. Of course it's not some big huge gap, but it's enough that one player is going to be an average sized NHLer and the other will be in the bottom quartile.

Before you start yelling at me, no, I do not think Benson's size is an "issue" and I would be fine if they picked him, but it's dishonest to pretend that it's just some tiny fractional difference or that Leonard does not have a meaningful size advantage over Benson.

 

[Mrb1p]

So Reinbacher does come in as the top ranked D on Bobby's list as expected at #8.

Now the biggest question for me is when he is picked. I know a lot of people are expecting Arizona, but there always seems to be a D taken in the top 5.

I wonder if this is the year that trend is broken. As I've stated before I'm hoping for a game changing forward this year, but if HuGo and the Habs scouts see Reinbacher as a top pair D I could see Mtl keep the trend going. Maybe Anaheim with Zegras/McTavish could reach? Hard to see them pass on Fantilli though. I can only see Columbus going with Fantilli/Carlsson. SJ could really be a wildcard.

Next week is going to be interesting, that's for sure!

Anaheim has the strongest defensive pool in the league, there is no way they go for a D.

It becomes likely at San Jose and not before.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

#8 Reinbacher
#9 Benson
#10 Perreault

Damn, Perreault at #10. That momentary time when we were at #14 and I thought he could be our pick there.

Pittsburgh's f***ing choke job of all time.
Florida should be at that pick!

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Hutson-Willander could have been a great pair yes

They're playing together at Boston University next season.

 

[Andrei79]

You keep using this line about a 1-2cm difference over and over but the measurements at the combine were 5'9.75" and 5'11.75". A quarter inch below 6'0 vs. a quarter inch below 5'10 is not a trivial difference. Of course it's not some big huge gap, but it's enough that one player is going to be an average sized NHL and the other will be in the bottom quartile.

Before you start yelling at me, no, I do not think Benson's size is an "issue" and I would be fine if they picked him, but it's dishonest to pretend that it's just some tiny fractional difference or that Leonard does not have a meaningful size advantage over Benson.

Interestingly, the difference is not enough to make a difference vs a smaller player, but the same height difference is significant enough to make the Matthew Tkachuk comparisons inaccurate.

Personally, I feel the difference is significant in both cases.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Size concerns that do not exist for same height Bedard and Michkov?

Both Bedard and Michkov are jacked and can shoot the puck which opens up space.

 

[26Mats]

We need the most picks possible in the first four rounds, i dont want to trade up.

Maybe something like this.

To MTL: 14th overall + Granlund
To PIT: 31st overall + Edmundson (50% retained)

Edit: I thought Granlund only had 1 more year left. He actually has 2 years left. That changes things...

 

[WeThreeKings]

Based on Bob's list, this is what I would do:

5: Michkov (Leonard or Reinbacher)
31: Heidt (Nadeau or Dragicevic)
37: Hrabal (Ziemmer or Edstrom)
69: Minnetian (Terrance or Dower-Nilsson)

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Whens the last time a line on a team had #4, #7 and #10? Whats the historical value here? Closest I can think is 2019 but Caufield wasnt ranked that high I believe.

Pretty sure Caufield was ranked top 10. I think 7. He just fell.

Who was on that line? Boldy?

Hughes #1
Caufield #7
Boldly #10

 

[HomeAndHome]

Anaheim has the strongest defensive pool in the league, there is no way they go for a D.

It becomes likely at San Jose and not before.

Ya I fully expect Fantilli/Carlsson to go 2/3.

Reinbacher going to SJ would really open things up for us. Picking between Michkov, Smith, Leonard is getting close to a wet dream @ #5 for a lot of us

However, seeing Dvorsky @7 on Bobby's list has me thinking he's likely in the consideration for us too.

 

[le_sean]

Whoever gets a player like Cristall at 25-35 will be laughing

 

[Mrb1p]

You keep using this line about a 1-2cm difference over and over but the measurements at the combine were 5'9.75" and 5'11.75". A quarter inch below 6'0 vs. a quarter inch below 5'10 is not a trivial difference. Of course it's not some big huge gap, but it's enough that one player is going to be an average sized NHL and the other will be in the bottom quartile.

Before you start yelling at me, no, I do not think Benson's size is an "issue" and I would be fine if they picked him, but it's dishonest to pretend that it's just some tiny fractional difference or that Leonard does not have a meaningful size advantage over Benson.

The size difference is literally negligible. Leonard is gonna be the smaller guy 85% od the time and Benson 95%, aa majority of the time theyll be smaller.

Think of it as standard deviations, the mean is about 184 cm for NHL players, and the SD is a little bit more than 5.5 centimeters, this means that both players are in the same SD bracket, they literally will see the same amount of challenges more or less.

Its just a poor application of statistics and or poor reasoning to think a 181 cm player is in a better spot than a 178 cm one.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Based on Bob's list, this is what I would do:

5: Michkov (Leonard or Reinbacher)
31: Heidt (Nadeau or Dragicevic)
37: Hrabal (Ziemmer or Edstrom)
69: Minnetian (Terrance or Dower-Nilsson)

I really like Wahlberg too at #31.

#37 is where we should take a goalie though.
Definitely like Terrance at #69.