HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[Kennerback]

I'm more excited by Simashev ceiling than Reinbacher's....

The only reason I like Reinbacher is because we’ll get a second pair D one day. We get ”something” out of this draft. I don’t know the 6 to 10 will meet their lofty projections. Some are way oversold. Simplest thing would be Smith, Carlsson or Michkov, unfortunately things are complicated…

 

[AHShadow]

Arpon did a live Q&A for Athletic Subscribers. Wasn't there for the entire thing, but caught the end of it where he was saying that the Habs don't really believe in having a lot of small players in their top 6 and that already having Caufield makes it difficult to draft players like Michkov and Benson.

I understand it but still disagree with the overall process. I understand if you have two equally rated players and you take the guy with size instead, but I just don't get drafting a less-talented bigger guy instead of a higher-skilled player.

In general I agree with the Habs vision of how the game should be played, but they do seem to put a lot of emphasis on size, which I'm wondering would come to bite us back eventually.

 

[Doublechin]

Any predictions on Bobby Mac's top 10?

I'll say
1. Bedard
2. Fantilli
3. Carlsson
4. Smith
5. Michkov
6. Leonard
7. Reinbacher
8. Benson
9. Dvorsky
10. Moore

1. Bedard
2. Fantilli
3. Carlsson
4. Smith
5. Leonard
6. Michkov
7. Dvorsky
8. Benson
9. Reinbacher
10. Hard one here, could be anyone between Moore, ASP, Wallinder, Wood or Barlow

 

[badfish]

Arpon did a live Q&A for Athletic Subscribers. Wasn't there for the entire thing, but caught the end of it where he was saying that the Habs don't really believe in having a lot of small players in their top 6 and that already having Caufield makes it difficult to draft players like Michkov and Benson.

I understand it but still disagree with the overall process. I understand if you have two equally rated players and you take the guy with size instead, but I just don't get drafting a less-talented bigger guy instead of a higher-skilled player.

In general I agree with the Habs vision of how the game should be played, but they do seem to put a lot of emphasis on size, which I'm wondering would come to bite us back eventually.

I don't think Arpon's speculation on this is right. Hughes said in the past he does not want too many small players in the top-6, but he has never said if that line is drawn at one small player, two small players, three small players, etc. Drawing the line at Caufield only is Arpon's interpretation of Hughes comments, and in my opinion, Hughes behaviour does not match Arpon's interpretation.

Case in point is last years draft when the Habs picked Mesar. If they were drawing the line at Caufield only in the top-6, why spend a first round pick on a 5'10, 170lb water-bug forward who projects poorly in a bottom-6 role? Especially when there are bigger players like Bystedt or grittier players like Howard still available?

 

[sheed36]

Arpon did a live Q&A for Athletic Subscribers. Wasn't there for the entire thing, but caught the end of it where he was saying that the Habs don't really believe in having a lot of small players in their top 6 and that already having Caufield makes it difficult to draft players like Michkov and Benson.

I understand it but still disagree with the overall process. I understand if you have two equally rated players and you take the guy with size instead, but I just don't get drafting a less-talented bigger guy instead of a higher-skilled player.

In general I agree with the Habs vision of how the game should be played, but they do seem to put a lot of emphasis on size, which I'm wondering would come to bite us back eventually.

But if the Habs did draft a Michkov or Benson they'll be better than any other Habs prospect currently and also better than everyone in their top 6 outside of Suzuki and Caufield and maybe Dach. My opinion anyway..

There's also the option of trading away some of the lesser talented smaller guys already in their system, who are less talented than a Michkov or Benson, to fill other needs if they feel they have too many smaller guys in the system.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

I'm more excited by Simashev ceiling than Reinbacher's....But outside of the top 5, I think that Reinbacher's floor is top 5-10 material.

Simashev seems much more like a potential Seider to me.

 

[BeliveauFan4ever]

.

They didn't want it to be draft day 1, draft day 2, free agency.

It's apparently better tv if the draft is Thursday, Friday, but as I mentioned they didn't want to do it.

No idea why they wouldn't have done it this week.

o

Arpon did a live Q&A for Athletic Subscribers. Wasn't there for the entire thing, but caught the end of it where he was saying that the Habs don't really believe in having a lot of small players in their top 6 and that already having Caufield makes it difficult to draft players like Michkov and Benson.

I understand it but still disagree with the overall process. I understand if you have two equally rated players and you take the guy with size instead, but I just don't get drafting a less-talented bigger guy instead of a higher-skilled player.

In general I agree with the Habs vision of how the game should be played, but they do seem to put a lot of emphasis on size, which I'm wondering would come to bite us back eventually.

I think it’s too early to say what they aim to build.

 

[tooji]

the odds of drafting a michkov calibre player in the future given the state of our rebuild is basically 0. Hope they will be satisfied with never having a superstar forward in this core

 

[ginomini]

Any predictions on Bobby Mac's top 10?

Pretty much your list, but I'll try a spicier one.

1. Bedard
2. Fantilli
3. Carlsson
4. Smith
5. Leonard
6. Reinbacher
7. Michkov
8. Dvorsky
9. Benson
10. Willander

 

[montreal]

He's certainly very good value at 31, if he makes it to that spot. With his sorta meh draft season, there's a real chance he could slip.

I wouldn't pick him at 31, too high imo

 

[waitin425]

I'll be choked if Washington gets Michkov. If they want him so bad and HuGo is dumb enough not to select him...I'd trade back and select Leonard, Benson or Dvorsky.

Washington can sweeten the pot with Hendrix and top 3 protected 1st next year.

 

[Kennerback]

I'll be choked if Washington gets Michkov. If they want him so bad and HuGo is dumb enough not to select him...I'd trade back and select Leonard, Benson or Dvorsky.

Washington can sweeten the pot with Hendrix and top 3 protected 1st next year.

I don’t mind Michkov per se. It’s not even getting Smith or Carlsson. A bunch of 6 to 10 picks never get off the ground or become complementary players. There’s a great drop in hitting upside between 1to5 and 6to10. Your 3 names are bona fide 6to10s. They might hit. Usually hit somewhat. Much more likely than the 1to5s to bust.

 

[AHShadow]

I don't think Arpon's speculation on this is right. Hughes said in the past he does not want too many small players in the top-6, but he has never said if that line is drawn at one small player, two small players, three small players, etc. Drawing the line at Caufield only is Arpon's interpretation of Hughes comments, and in my opinion, Hughes behaviour does not match Arpon's interpretation.

Case in point is last years draft when the Habs picked Mesar. If they were drawing the line at Caufield only in the top-6, why spend a first round pick on a 5'10, 170lb water-bug forward who projects poorly in a bottom-6 role? Especially when there are bigger players like Bystedt or grittier players like Howard still available?

I hope you're right and that Arpond is just interpreting what he believes Hughes means. And you're right, we did actually draft a lot of smaller players later in the draft with Mesar, Hutson and Rohrer.

But if the Habs did draft a Michkov or Benson they'll be better than any other Habs prospect currently and also better than everyone in their top 6 outside of Suzuki and Caufield and maybe Dach. My opinion anyway..

There's also the option of trading away some of the lesser talented smaller guys already in their system, who are less talented than a Michkov or Benson, to fill other needs if they feel they have too many smaller guys in the system.

I mean I completely agree with you. I think both Michkov and Benson could realistically become our teams top forwards in a few years, so I'd rather build around them and if we need to trade Caufield cause we have too many small forwards, he'll for sure feth a premium.

.

o

I think it’s too early to say what they aim to build.

This is also true, but I think this draft will give us really good signs on what they truly believe in. Last year they drafted Slaf which is fine, but if they continue drafting "character players" with "size" instead of just getting the most skilled player available, then that becomes a red flag to me.

I don’t mind Michkov per se. It’s not even getting Smith or Carlsson. A bunch of 6 to 10 picks never get off the ground or become complementary players. There’s a great drop in hitting upside between 1to5 and 6to10. Your 3 names are bona fide 6to10s. They might hit. Usually hit somewhat. Much more likely than the 1to5s to bust.

In any other year, I think you'd be right and it's also why historically only few top 5 draft picks have ever been traded.

All of Fantilli, Carlsson, Michkov and arguably Smith all would've fought for the 1st spot in the 2022 draft, which leaves 3-4 more players that would be the equivalent of a top 5 pick in other years. Reinbacher is a good example where he probably fights with Jiricek and Nemec in last years draft for a top 5 spot.

 

[Koivu11]

the odds of drafting a michkov calibre player in the future given the state of our rebuild is basically 0. Hope they will be satisfied with never having a superstar forward in this core

Exactly. It could be a decade or more before we’re in a position to be able to draft a talent like Michkov again. It’s a risk you have to take.

Some of these guys being mentioned are available in most drafts between 5-15 where we’re likely to be picking again.

 

[Michoulicious]

Arpon did a live Q&A for Athletic Subscribers. Wasn't there for the entire thing, but caught the end of it where he was saying that the Habs don't really believe in having a lot of small players in their top 6 and that already having Caufield makes it difficult to draft players like Michkov and Benson.

I understand it but still disagree with the overall process. I understand if you have two equally rated players and you take the guy with size instead, but I just don't get drafting a less-talented bigger guy instead of a higher-skilled player.

In general I agree with the Habs vision of how the game should be played, but they do seem to put a lot of emphasis on size, which I'm wondering would come to bite us back eventually.

They already went for size with Slaf last year.

A scout in the video they released post draft said he's ok for drafting size at #1 OA if that means they stop chasing size later in the draft.

Hopefully that scout is still there and will pound the table for a generational talent like Michkov. Not the time for size here. Time for talent.

 

[Mrb1p]

I'm more excited by Simashev ceiling than Reinbacher's....But outside of the top 5, I think that Reinbacher's floor is top 5-10 material.

Simashev seems much more like a potential Seider to me.

Thats ridiculous and not based on factual evidence, at all. Theres a reason Simashev hasnt ever produced anywhere and Reinbacher is one of the most productive D prospect ever.

Youre talking about a guy that couldnt even go half a PPG in the MHL of all leagues. He cannot get his shot through, hes bad at walking the line, his playmaking isnt even close to being dynamic and hes not particularly good at moving the puck up ice.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Thats ridiculous and not based on factual evidence, at all. Theres a reason Simashev hasnt ever produced anywhere and Reinbacher is one of the most productive D prospect ever.

Youre talking about a guy that couldnt even go half a PPG in the MHL of all leagues. He cannot get his shot through, hes bad at walking the line, his playmaking isnt even close to being dynamic and hes not particularly good at moving the puck up ice.

From a trait perspective, Simashev is 6’4”, an amazing skater, and highly skilled with the puck. He has Reinbacher beat on all three of those attributes- and similar grades to Seider in those attributes as well.

 

[Mrb1p]

From a trait perspective, Simashev is 6’4”, an amazing skater, and highly skilled with the puck. He has Reinbacher beat on all three of those attributes- and similar grades to Seider in those attributes as well.

Reinbacher is a better skater and like 5 centimeters shorter? Reinbacher is better all over the board and its not even close.

Simashev isnt a better stickhandler, its just the only quality he has.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Reinbacher is a better skater and like 5 centimeters shorter? Reinbacher is better all over the board and its not even close.

Simashev isnt a better stickhandler, its just the only quality he has.

I do have Reinbacher above Simashev to be clear, considering floor and the Russian factor. But in terms of a Seider comp and pure upside, that’s Simashev.

 

[GlassesJacketShirt]

They already went for size with Slaf last year.

A scout in the video they released post draft said he's ok for drafting size at #1 OA if that means they stop chasing size later in the draft.

Hopefully that scout is still there and will pound the table for a generational talent like Michkov. Not the time for size here. Time for talent.

It is a very specific quote for a specific player, but assuming that is the philosophy at play: they did draft a lot of smaller players afterwards; I get the feeling that was true only in the context of that draft. Out of the skaters, nobody other skaters picked went above 6'0''.

I would be shocked if Michkov or Benson are in heavy consideration.

 

[Whitesnake]

Thats ridiculous and not based on factual evidence, at all. Theres a reason Simashev hasnt ever produced anywhere and Reinbacher is one of the most productive D prospect ever.

Youre talking about a guy that couldnt even go half a PPG in the MHL of all leagues. He cannot get his shot through, hes bad at walking the line, his playmaking isnt even close to being dynamic and hes not particularly good at moving the puck up ice.

I'm pretty sure by talking about ceiling it's me NOT using facts and just mostly talking potential based on style of play and attributes. Also, me saying that Reinbacher FLOOR is top 5-10 material...I'm pretty sure it's ME not dissing Reinbacher.

Reinbacher is in my top 10. Simashev isn't.

 

[Mrb1p]

I'm pretty sure by talking about ceiling it's me NOT using facts and just mostly talking potential based on style of play and attributes. Also, me saying that Reinbacher FLOOR is top 5-10 material...I'm pretty sure it's ME not dissing Reinbacher.

Reinbacher is in my top 10. Simashev isn't.

Whats Simashev gonna be good at ?

 

[Michoulicious]

Reinbacher is a better skater and like 5 centimeters shorter? Reinbacher is better all over the board and its not even close.

Simashev isnt a better stickhandler, its just the only quality he has.

Simashev is a IMO a better skater than Reinbacher.

 

[Doublechin]

The difference between Simashev and Reinbacher to me is draft position, I'd hate to grab Reinbacher at 5 and I'd love Simashev at 31.

I have Reinbacher ahead in my rankings but Simashev's value as of the early 20s to me is a huge advantage on Reinbacher at 5

If Simashev wasn't Russian he'd be ranked way closer to 10 then 15

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Simashev is a IMO a better skater than Reinbacher.

Have to agree here tbh. Reinbacher uses his skating more effectively, but Simashev (tools wise) is the better skater.