HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[NotProkofievian]

A couple points about production.

Every single year the USNTDP guys get shit on about how they dunk on jabronis all year. We have Caufield in some small part because of it.

Will Smith does play with better players than Dvorsky. Are they better than Caufield, Zegras, Boldy? Because Jack Hughes who is now a 99 point player (so close, Jack!) also played on a super team and produced about the same as Will Smith.

If you're going to shit on Will Smith for dunking on fools, you should do the same for all players. Dvorsky's J20 stats were pedestrian (just above ppg) until the New Year, in which the J20 splits into a top 10, and a bottom 10. Dvorsky put up a bunch of points in 5 games against the worst of the J20.

I say we don't do such adjustments, and take the stats for what they are historically worth. And in that respect, Smith's production is in another league compared to Dvorsky's, even including U18 and J20.

 

[Pazucha]

Just curious how many full games of each prospects have you seen this season? I tried to fill mine with some prospects that get mentioned in the top 30.

Bedard ( 6+) U20
Fantilli (8+) U20,WC
Michkov (0)
Carlsson (0-1)
Dvorsky (20+) U18,U20,Allsvenskan
Leonard (5-7) U18
Smith (5-7) U18
Reinbacher (2) WC, Friendly
Perrault (5-7) U18
Benson (0)
Wood (2-4)
Honzek (1) :/
Sale (6-8) U18, U20, Czech League
ASP (5-7) U18, U20

I tried to be honest and not include any matches where i tuned in after first or second period.

 

[Jack Skellington]

Every single year the USNTDP guys get shit on about how they dunk on jabronis all year. We have Caufield in some small part because of it.

Will Smith does play with better players than Dvorsky. Are they better than Caufield, Zegras, Boldy? Because Jack Hughes who is now a 99 point player (so close, Jack!) also played on a super team and produced about the same as Will Smith.

If you're going to shit on Will Smith for dunking on fools, you should do the same for all players. Dvorsky's J20 stats were pedestrian (just above ppg) until the New Year, in which the J20 splits into a top 10, and a bottom 10. Dvorsky put up a bunch of points in 5 games against the worst of the J20.

I say we don't do such adjustments, and take the stats for what they are historically worth. And in that respect, Smith's production is in another league compared to Dvorsky's, even including U18 and J20.

Yes this is kind of where I’m at with Smith. The highlights are lovely, I don’t personally like what I’ve seen from watching full USDP games.. but production in juniors usually begets production in the NHL.. and that’s really what we’re going for here at the end of the day. The scary thing about this Smith line is we can’t be sure what ingredient is the most important one. What if we are really underrating what Leonard does for it, or what if it’s leading scorer, Perrault is being massively underlooked? We don’t want to end up with the Turcotte. Smith is in an absolute ideal situation that we may have to perfectly reproduce for him one day to get good results which isn’t a fear I have with Benson or Reinbacher.

 

[xposbrad]

Habs need that high-end player and everyone has pretty is drawn to the conclusion that the Habs won't draft Michkov, who isn't perfect, but definitely is a high-end prospect. The rest are a step, or tier below and that's why there's so many suggestions and so many opposed to the variety.

It f***ing sucks honestly.

Habs are never in that spot where there's a unanimous selection, or almost unanimous. There's always question marks around who could go where they're drafting and the Habs have a history if selecting wrong.

If the Habs mess up and avoid Michkov and Smith is taken. Then there would have been no point to finishing 5th since there will be a bunch of teams selecting equal level talent. We need to hit a homerun or we will most likely end up a middle of the pack team for a while until the next small 'retool'.

 

[Jaynki]

And don't forget the Zircon encrusted tweezers.....

View attachment 713588

View attachment 713587

The muffin man! If we can encrust a stud that will be to hockey what Zappa was to guitar we will be in business

 

[Vachon23]

I would be fine with Ethan Gauthier at 31/32. I know he didn't produce that much this season but he was on a stack team and didn't have every offensive opportunity. I think his offensives qualities are getting underrated here even if he's not at the same level then a guy like Cristall and his compete level his extremely high.

I expect a big season for him next year with Drummondville with a good team where he's gonna have offensive opportunities.

 

[Michoulicious]

A couple points about production.

Every single year the USNTDP guys get shit on about how they dunk on jabronis all year. We have Caufield in some small part because of it.

Will Smith does play with better players than Dvorsky. Are they better than Caufield, Zegras, Boldy? Because Jack Hughes who is now a 99 point player (so close, Jack!) also played on a super team and produced about the same as Will Smith.

If you're going to shit on Will Smith for dunking on fools, you should do the same for all players. Dvorsky's J20 stats were pedestrian (just above ppg) until the New Year, in which the J20 splits into a top 10, and a bottom 10. Dvorsky put up a bunch of points in 5 games against the worst of the J20.

I say we don't do such adjustments, and take the stats for what they are historically worth. And in that respect, Smith's production is in another league compared to Dvorsky's, even including U18 and J20.

Stop making so much sense! You need to take into account the grindz/gritz/intangiblez of Dvorsky at the U18s. Smith is only a hotdog around these parts.

 

[Jaynki]

Martineau from TVA sports talked with SKA assistant coaches about Michkov.

He is coming to NA after his KHL deal.

I doubt he is there at 5 to be honest.

 

[Vachon23]

Martineau from TVA sports talked with SKA assistant coaches about Michkov.

He is coming to NA after his KHL deal.

I doubt he is there at 5 to be honest.

https://www.tvasports.ca/2023/05/29/exclusif--lentraineur-de-matvei-michkov-remet-les-pendules-a-lheure

RDS should make a great offer to Anthony Martineau, that guy always have a great chronic

 

[WinterLion]

Just curious how many full games of each prospects have you seen this season? I tried to fill mine with some prospects that get mentioned in the top 30.

Bedard ( 6+) U20
Fantilli (8+) U20,WC
Michkov (0)
Carlsson (0-1)
Dvorsky (20+) U18,U20,Allsvenskan
Leonard (5-7) U18
Smith (5-7) U18
Reinbacher (2) WC, Friendly
Perrault (5-7) U18
Benson (0)
Wood (2-4)
Honzek (1) :/
Sale (6-8) U18, U20, Czech League
ASP (5-7) U18, U20

I tried to be honest and not include any matches where i tuned in after first or second period.

What do you think Dvorsky will end up becoming in the NHL?

 

[Michoulicious]

Martineau from TVA sports talked with SKA assistant coaches about Michkov.

He is coming to NA after his KHL deal.

I doubt he is there at 5 to be honest.

I think every team not named Chicago that skip on Michkov will look like fools in 5 years.

 

[26Mats]

Martineau from TVA sports talked with SKA assistant coaches about Michkov.

He is coming to NA after his KHL deal.

I doubt he is there at 5 to be honest.

We have to make a deal with Columbus if we want him. They don't want him. If Columbus moves back to 5, they still get one of Will Smith or Carlsson. So if they prefer Carlsson to will Smith, then we have to make them an offer that more than makes up for the gap they see.

We could also make San Jose an offer that makes up for the gap between Will Smith and Michkov if that's who's avaialble to them at 4.

 

[SwiftyHab]

Finally a good long article talking to Michkov’s coach dispelling all the rumours that he won’t come here.

 

[Pazucha]

What do you think Dvorsky will end up becoming in the NHL?

I dont know maybe something between Suzuki and Hischier in terms of ppg and what they bring to the team.

 

[Michoulicious]

We have to make a deal with Columbus if we want him. They don't want him. If Columbus moves back to 5, they still get one of Will Smith or Carlsson. So if they prefer Carlsson to will Smith, then we have to make them an offer that more than makes up for the gap they see.

We could also make San Jose an offer that makes up for the gap between Will Smith and Michkov if that's who's avaialble to them at 4.

Trading up for Michkov is the only way trading up makes sense.

I'd be all for it.

I dont know maybe something between Suzuki and Hischier in terms of ppg and what they bring to the team.

Or maybe an Anton Lundell.

It does not excite me at all, personnally. And I like Lundell.

I want the big offensive talent in the top 5.

 

[Jack Skellington]

Finally a good long article talking to Michkov’s coach dispelling all the rumours that he won’t come here.

That's some good info. I imagine the teams themselves have known all of this stuff for months now, it's more the general public that is fretting about it.

 

[WinterLion]

I dont know maybe something between Suzuki and Hischier in terms of ppg and what they bring to the team.

I'm taking this as you are a big fan of his leadership and intangibles? That's great!

 

[SOLR]

A couple points about production.

Every single year the USNTDP guys get shit on about how they dunk on jabronis all year. We have Caufield in some small part because of it.

Will Smith does play with better players than Dvorsky. Are they better than Caufield, Zegras, Boldy? Because Jack Hughes who is now a 99 point player (so close, Jack!) also played on a super team and produced about the same as Will Smith.

If you're going to shit on Will Smith for dunking on fools, you should do the same for all players. Dvorsky's J20 stats were pedestrian (just above ppg) until the New Year, in which the J20 splits into a top 10, and a bottom 10. Dvorsky put up a bunch of points in 5 games against the worst of the J20.

I say we don't do such adjustments, and take the stats for what they are historically worth. And in that respect, Smith's production is in another league compared to Dvorsky's, even including U18 and J20.

1) not all years are the same (thinking by analogy etc... dangerous)

2) you have to evaluate each player individually

3) many players in that Jack Hughes teams were passengers (Turcotte)

4) historical production in junior rank isn't very predictive of the next level

5) most of that Hughes team took many years to arrive (effect of the dunking vs. having to play a more complete game?)

6) they just get more criticism because they dunk on other teams a whole lot more than any other prospects (particularly the European ones who play pro hockey early)- but I could say the same about Fantilli in the all-star team or a lot of nights of Bedard in the WHL - it just looks way worse for the USNTDP guys because they are playing exhibition hockey.

 

[Jack Skellington]

I dont know maybe something between Suzuki and Hischier in terms of ppg and what they bring to the team.

 

[Lockin17]

How comparable is Smith vs Turcotte ??
Having a bust at #5 would suck !

 

[Pazucha]

View attachment 713623

Feel free to make your own prediction

 

[Vachon23]

How comparable is Smith vs Turcotte ??
Having a bust at #5 would suck !

Not the biggest Smith fan but he's better then Turcotte. He was the one that was carrying the US18 program and his offensive tools are more impressive then Turcotte.

The best comparable in the 2019 draft for Smith is Trevor Zegras

 

[Jack Skellington]

How comparable is Smith vs Turcotte ??
Having a bust at #5 would suck !

Not at all in terms of playstyle. In terms of possibly not being the straw that stirs the drink? Who knows, hard to say. He's alot closer to Zegras but I never saw Zegras float the way Smith does.

Feel free to make your own prediction

Brock Nelson

 

[Michoulicious]

Not the biggest Smith fan but he's better then Turcotte. He was the one that was carrying the US18 program and his offensive tools are more impressive then Turcotte.

The best comparable in the 2019 draft for Smith is Trevor Zegras

I like the Zegras comparison. Both very high skill, very high IQ players.

Zegras is one of the players I like the most watching in the whole league after McDavid.

 

[Michoulicious]

I would be fine with Ethan Gauthier at 31/32. I know he didn't produce that much this season but he was on a stack team and didn't have every offensive opportunity. I think his offensives qualities are getting underrated here even if he's not at the same level then a guy like Cristall and his compete level his extremely high.

I expect a big season for him next year with Drummondville with a good team where he's gonna have offensive opportunities.

I'm down for Gauthier at that spot, not doubt.

Can you imagine the RW depth if we somehow pick Michkov and Gauthier in the 1st round?

Michkov (RW, shoots left)
Caufield
Gauthier
Anderson
Gallagher
Roy (RW, shoots left)

Probably Gallagher/Anderson will be gone when Michkov/Gauthier are there, but still.

Crazy stuff. We'll need some RHD at some point however.