Prospect Info: 2023 NHL Draft (mod warning 1st post)

[Anaheim4ever]

Yeah i know its early but 2022 draft discussion started pretty quickly too last year.
So far its #1 Bedard and #2 Mitchkov but after that what are players you are interested in for the Ducks ?
I don't see Bedard falling like Wright did at all. Who will be this years Slaf and Cooley ?

Blanket warning to everyone - the season is over, the active tanking is over, and everyone needs to remember how to get along.

Polite discussions of different viewpoints is fine. Assertions as to who is a good fan, who is a bad fan, and most particularly trolling behavior is going to result in thread bans and warnings. The vast majority of posters here are great about this. There are a few of you, on both sides of this issue, who are trying to start things, and I would advise you to carefully consider if that snarky comment you just made is worth being your last post in a thread. I would advise the folks who think that making an even snarkier response to make that same assessment. Neither of your posts will be seen by anyone else for long regardless.

It is perfectly fine to not understand how anyone could root for the team to lose. It is perfectly fine to not understand how losing has strong benefits to the franchise king term. There are gaping holes in BOTH positions, that may be discussed and debated…POLITELY.

We are all Ducks fans. Time to remember that and stop being at each other’s throats.

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[Zegs2sendhelp]

I told my son he has 1 job on his birthday and that is to wish for bedard when he blows out his candles.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

I've been pretty busy the last couple weeks and last night I finally got a chance to relax and I literally got butterflies in my stomach when I remembered the lottery was on Monday.

 

[HanSolo]

I just hate being against the grain but I don't think you can pass up on Carlsson at 2.

I have them about even. I'd slightly prefer Fantilli but I'd be just as happy with Carlsson. I'm not gonna speak against professional scouts, but from my view of how Smith plays I think he has aot more to work on with his game than the other two just mentioned. Not just the defensive side. So I really hope we don't take Smith if we end up picking third. I'm fairly sure his spot at third is based on human recency bias before Carlsson has started playing for his men's national team at the WC. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Carlsson jumps back up to third on Bob's list on the final ranking so this idea that Bob's list is indicative of BPA on draft day doesn't really track with me.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Agreed. I don't want to have to deal with falling a spot again, let alone two. I can not remember if we ever really moved up a spot or two beforehand in a regular lottery draw (2005 was, IIRC, effectively a +1 spot from #3 to #2 but might as well be seen as staying on course, as our roster was atrocious and we would've finished bottom two anyway). We have dropped a spot like 80% of the past 20 drafts, we're overdue to win the lottery.

In 2003-04, the Ducks finished with the 9th worst record and Pitt owned the worst record. 2004-05 was the lockout. Then we had the 2005 lottery system. Wikipedia has the lottery breakdown:

Teams were weighted based on playoff appearances in the last three completed seasons (2001-02, 02-03 and 03-04), and first overall picks in the last four drafts (2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004). Three lottery balls each were assigned to teams which had not qualified for any of those playoffs and received no first overall picks in that period. Teams which had one playoff appearance or first overall pick in those years were given two lottery balls. All other teams received one lottery ball.[1]​

- Three balls: Buffalo, Columbus, NYR, and Pitt​

- Two balls: Anaheim, Atlanta Thrashers, Calgary, Carolina, Chicago, Edmonton, LA, Minny, Nashville, and Phx.​

Using the 2003-04 record, Anaheim jumped 8 spots to land the 2nd overall pick.

NHL Lottery results from 1995 to present. Aside from recent drafts starting in 2019, the other drafts didn't push down the Ducks when they were in the lottery.

Recent lottery results for the Ducks: 2019 to present

2019: moved down one to 9th​

2020: moved down one to 6th​

2021: moved down one to 3rd​

2022: stayed at 10th​

The recent changes in the lottery rules starting in 2021 has helped improved many of worse teams. We're guaranteed at least the 3rd overall pick, which the 2020 Red Wings were not and went from 1st overall to 4th overall. This is the first draft that teams 12-16 cannot win the lottery, giving the worst team an extra 7% chances of winning the lottery.

Things are looking great for the Ducks in this draft to land either Bedard, Fantilli, or Carlsson. In last year's draft, Fantilli and Carlsson would be considered #1 picks.

 

[KyleJRM]

Everyone moves down way more than they move up. It's just how it works. Every one move up creates 1-10 moves down.

 

[ADHB]

I think people are looking at it the wrong way. We can't "fall" to 2. We would have to actually win a drawing to get to 2.

Technically, you can look at it as we are 3 right now and need to win one of the drawings (or have one of the outsiders win) to move up.

 

[Mr Rogers]

I think people are looking at it the wrong way. We can't "fall" to 2. We would have to actually win a drawing to get to 2.

Technically, you can look at it as we are 3 right now and need to win one of the drawings (or have one of the outsiders win) to move up.

Couldn’t we technically fall to 2nd if another team got the 1st pick, and then one of the 13-16 teams won the drawing for the 2nd pick?

 

[ohcomeonref]

Couldn’t we technically fall to 2nd if another team got the 1st pick, and then one of the 13-16 teams won the drawing for the 2nd pick?

Yep. If one of the teams that's too low to move up to 1st wins the lottery then it locks us into top 2.

 

[Mr Rogers]

Yep. If one of the teams that's too low to move up to 1st wins the lottery then it locks us into top 2.

I’ve been thinking about what we can garner from when Daly reveals the cards, especially in the early part of it. Basically if we see one of those better teams was skipped, it’s good news for us

 

[AngelDuck]

It’s a stupid system.

 

[All Mighty]

I’ve been thinking about what we can garner from when Daly reveals the cards, especially in the early part of it. Basically if we see one of those better teams was skipped, it’s good news for us

Right. I think if we see one of the 12-16 teams skipped, then we are guaranteed top 2.

 

[dracom]

last place should get the 1st pick, lets stop with the lottery nonsense.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Everyone moves down way more than they move up. It's just how it works. Every one move up creates 1-10 moves down.

Meh I’m really not concerned…. At the end of the day we’re getting 1 of bedard fantilli carlsson or michkov and that is a okay for me

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Couldn’t we technically fall to 2nd if another team got the 1st pick, and then one of the 13-16 teams won the drawing for the 2nd pick?

The worst team in the lottery has a 25.5% of winning the lottery. The breakdown is 18.5% chance as the worst team and 7% chance from picks 12-16, since they cannot win the lottery and those odds are reallocated to the 1st overall selection.

Similarly, picks 13-16 odds belong to the 2nd overall odds' selection.

Anaheim can "fall down one spot" if they lose the first lottery pick and "win the 2nd lottery pick".

There is no lottery selection after the first two draws and Anaheim would be awarded with the 3rd overall if they don't win either of the first two lottery draws.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

A potential 2nd/3rd round pick is winger Danny Nelson. He's 6'3 and 203 lbs. Danny was a defenseman converted to winger. He'll be a long term project as he is planning on attending Michigan (NCAA) in the 2024-25 season. If all things go right, then Danny could become a middle-six, goal scoring power forward in three to five years.

The problem here is that he's going to the NCAA and I dunno if Verbeek is willing to spend round 2-4 assets on a collegian.

 

[MMC]

 

[Mr Rogers]

The worst team in the lottery has a 25.5% of winning the lottery. The breakdown is 18.5% chance as the worst team and 7% chance from picks 12-16, since they cannot win the lottery and those odds are reallocated to the 1st overall selection.

Similarly, picks 13-16 odds belong to the 2nd overall odds' selection.

Anaheim can "fall down one spot" if they lose the first lottery pick and "win the 2nd lottery pick".

There is no lottery selection after the first two draws and Anaheim would be awarded with the 3rd overall if they don't win either of the first two lottery draws.

If by “win” you mean the only way they can get the 2nd is by actually winning the drawing for the 2nd pick in the event they are pushed down during the 1st drawing, I’m not sure that’s technically correct, although it’s probably the most likely way. If the team that wins the 2nd drawing is too far back, they wouldn’t bypass the Ducks, and we’d just stay at 2.

View attachment 703641

I don’t wanna look too far into this but I kinda do haha

 

[KyleJRM]

last place should get the 1st pick, lets stop with the lottery nonsense.

NHL doesn't want a repeat of the Pittsburgh staff openly admitting to losing on purpose

 

[LePerilsofPerreault]

I’ve seen all the Leo Carlsson video I can find, i’m pre-prepared for 3rd

 

[Leonardo87]

View attachment 703641

Hopefully Wild Wing is making the pick. Lol.

 

[91Fedorov]

View attachment 703641

So, if this is actually from the Ducks... can we assume we won't be looking at Michkov in the top 3?

If by “win” you mean the only way they can get the 2nd is by actually winning the drawing for the 2nd pick in the event they are pushed down during the 1st drawing, I’m not sure that’s technically correct, although it’s probably the most likely way. If the team that wins the 2nd drawing is too far back, they wouldn’t bypass the Ducks, and we’d just stay at 2.

From what I've looked into, this is correct.

 

[ADHB]

Couldn’t we technically fall to 2nd if another team got the 1st pick, and then one of the 13-16 teams won the drawing for the 2nd pick?

Yes, but again, that would basically be moving up to 2nd. Same as the first overall pick, we can "win" by either winning the draw ourselves or having one of the bottom teams win it. The combos belonging to those teams are basically our combos as far as the top 2 picks are concerned.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

If by “win” you mean the only way they can get the 2nd is by actually winning the drawing for the 2nd pick in the event they are pushed down during the 1st drawing, I’m not sure that’s technically correct, although it’s probably the most likely way. If the team that wins the 2nd drawing is too far back, they wouldn’t bypass the Ducks, and we’d just stay at 2.

What?

Anaheim has a 25.5% of winning the lottery. Why is there a huge drop between picks 1 and 2?

Draft Odds​	​	​	​	​	​
Pick​	2019​	2020​	2021​	2022 Old Rules​	2022 New Rules​	2022 New Rules Team
1​	18.5​	18.5​	16.6​	18.5​	25.5​	Anaheim
2​	13.5​	13.5​	12.1​	13.5​	13.5​	Columbus
3​	11.5​	11.5​	10.3​	11.5​	11.5​	Chicago
4​	9.5​	9.5​	10.3​	9.5​	9.5​	San Jose
5​	8.5​	8.5​	8.5​	8.5​	8.5​	Montreal
6​	7.5​	7.5​	7.6​	7.5​	7.5​	Arizona
7​	6.5​	6.5​	6.7​	6.5​	6.5​	Philadelphia
8​	6​	6​	5.8​	6​	6​	Washington
9​	5​	5​	5.4​	5​	5​	Detroit
10​	3.5​	3.5​	4.5​	3.5​	3.5​	St. Louis
11​	3​	3​	3.1​	3​	3​	Vancouver
12​	2.5​	2.5​	2.7​	2.5​	x​	Anaheim
13​	2​	2​	2.2​	2​	x​	Anaheim
14​	1.5​	1.5​	1.8​	1.5​	x​	Anaheim
15​	1​	1​	1.4​	0.5​	x​	Anaheim
16​	x​	x​	1​	0.5​	x​	Anaheim

Since Picks 12-16 cannot win the lottery, all of their odds of winning now belong to the #1 pick. (See table above.) Hence, 18.5% (pick 1) + 7.0% (picks 12-16) = 25.5% chance of winning the first pick on the first draw under the new rules because the order doesn't change if pick 1, 12, 13, 14, 15, or 16 wins.

Similarly, when the second draw occurs, pick 2 odds also includes picks 13-16 odds, since teams 13-16 cannot win the lottery. If pick 2 doesn't win with those inflated odds, then they will drop down.

I think your logic is stuck in thinking picks 12-16 in draw #1 and picks 13-16 in draw #2 actually belong to those slotted teams. They don't. They're only place holders. If you look at the table above, I share how the odds are distributed among the 16 participants for the first draw.

 

[Mr Rogers]

What?

View attachment 703659

Anaheim has a 25.5% of winning the lottery. Why is there a huge drop between picks 1 and 2?

​

Draft Odds​	​	​	​	​	​
Pick​	​ 2019​	​ 2020​	​ 2021​	​ 2022 Old Rules​	2022 New Rules​	2022 New Rules Team
​ 1​	​ 18.5​	​ 18.5​	​ 16.6​	​ 18.5​	​ 25.5​	Anaheim
​ 2​	​ 13.5​	​ 13.5​	​ 12.1​	​ 13.5​	​ 13.5​	Columbus
​ 3​	​ 11.5​	​ 11.5​	​ 10.3​	​ 11.5​	​ 11.5​	Chicago
​ 4​	​ 9.5​	​ 9.5​	​ 10.3​	​ 9.5​	​ 9.5​	San Jose
​ 5​	​ 8.5​	​ 8.5​	​ 8.5​	​ 8.5​	​ 8.5​	Montreal
​ 6​	​ 7.5​	​ 7.5​	​ 7.6​	​ 7.5​	​ 7.5​	Arizona
​ 7​	​ 6.5​	​ 6.5​	​ 6.7​	​ 6.5​	​ 6.5​	Philadelphia
​ 8​	​ 6​	​ 6​	​ 5.8​	​ 6​	​ 6​	Washington
​ 9​	​ 5​	​ 5​	​ 5.4​	​ 5​	​ 5​	Detroit
​ 10​	​ 3.5​	​ 3.5​	​ 4.5​	​ 3.5​	​ 3.5​	St. Louis
​ 11​	​ 3​	​ 3​	​ 3.1​	​ 3​	​ 3​	Vancouver
​ 12​	​ 2.5​	​ 2.5​	​ 2.7​	​ 2.5​	x​	Anaheim
​ 13​	​ 2​	​ 2​	​ 2.2​	​ 2​	x​	Anaheim
​ 14​	​ 1.5​	​ 1.5​	​ 1.8​	​ 1.5​	x​	Anaheim
​ 15​	​ 1​	​ 1​	​ 1.4​	​ 0.5​	x​	Anaheim
​ 16​	x​	x​	​ 1​	​ 0.5​	x​	Anaheim

Since Picks 12-16 cannot win the lottery, all of their odds of winning now belong to the #1 pick. (See table above.) Hence, 18.5% (pick 1) + 7.0% (picks 12-16) = 25.5% chance of winning the first pick on the first draw under the new rules because the order doesn't change if pick 1, 12, 13, 14, 15, or 16 wins.

Similarly, when the second draw occurs, pick 2 odds also includes picks 13-16 odds, since teams 13-16 cannot win the lottery. If pick 2 doesn't win with those inflated odds, then they will drop down.

I think your logic is stuck in thinking picks 12-16 in draw #1 and picks 13-16 in draw #2 actually belong to those slotted teams. They don't. They're only place holders. If you look at the table above, I share how the odds are distributed among the 16 participants for the first draw.

It’s really not that complicated haha. What I said is correct, it seems like we might’ve had a different interpretation of “win” tho

 

[duckaroosky]

I told my son he has 1 job on his birthday and that is to wish for bedard when he blows out his candles.

And when it doesn't happen, straight to the orphanage?