Prospect Info: 2023 NHL Draft (mod warning 1st post)

[Anaheim4ever]

Yeah i know its early but 2022 draft discussion started pretty quickly too last year.
So far its #1 Bedard and #2 Mitchkov but after that what are players you are interested in for the Ducks ?
I don't see Bedard falling like Wright did at all. Who will be this years Slaf and Cooley ?

Blanket warning to everyone - the season is over, the active tanking is over, and everyone needs to remember how to get along.

Polite discussions of different viewpoints is fine. Assertions as to who is a good fan, who is a bad fan, and most particularly trolling behavior is going to result in thread bans and warnings. The vast majority of posters here are great about this. There are a few of you, on both sides of this issue, who are trying to start things, and I would advise you to carefully consider if that snarky comment you just made is worth being your last post in a thread. I would advise the folks who think that making an even snarkier response to make that same assessment. Neither of your posts will be seen by anyone else for long regardless.

It is perfectly fine to not understand how anyone could root for the team to lose. It is perfectly fine to not understand how losing has strong benefits to the franchise king term. There are gaping holes in BOTH positions, that may be discussed and debated…POLITELY.

We are all Ducks fans. Time to remember that and stop being at each other’s throats.

Click to read more...

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

NHL doesn't want a repeat of the Pittsburgh staff openly admitting to losing on purpose

I think today this is really overblown. The NBA has a significantly more erratic lottery than the NHL ones and teams are borderline outrageous with how openly they tank. You even have teams being outright flippant towards the big initiative they’ve pushed in the play-in games. I don’t think scrapping the lottery would change much.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

It’s really not that complicated haha. What I said is correct, it seems like we might’ve had a different interpretation of “win” tho

Your interpretation on who wins is wrong, therefore what you said is incorrect that Anaheim doesn't have to win the lottery to drop down one.

Let's do a tangential example before going into the draft lottery example. All teams are represented in each round of the draft. Ottawa finished with the 12th worst record. Yet, they don't own that pick due to a trade. The 12th overall now belongs to Arizona and Ottawa is just a placeholder for official records, being that all teams are represented in each round of the draft. Come draft time, an Ottawa representative isn't going to the podium with the 12th overall selection, Arizona's representative is going up.

On to the draft lottery example, let's say that Ottawa wins the lottery on the first draw. Ottawa orignally owns the 12th overall pick. Did Ottawa win the #1 pick overall? No. Ottawa is incapable of winning the first overall pick by design and is only a placeholder for Anaheim. Ottawa's slot is needed for the lottery to have that 1,001 odds setup. Similarly, all the teams that cannot jump 10 spots up are all placeholders for the top pick in each draw, giving the worst team in each draw a higher chance of winning that top spot.

​

​	Draft Odds​	2023​	​	​	​
Pick​	2023 Old Rules​	Team​	​	2023 New Rules​	Team​
1​	18.5​	Anaheim​	​	25.5​	Anaheim​
2​	13.5​	Columbus​	​	13.5​	Columbus​
3​	11.5​	Chicago​	​	11.5​	Chicago​
4​	9.5​	San Jose​	​	9.5​	San Jose​
5​	8.5​	Montreal​	​	8.5​	Montreal​
6​	7.5​	Arizona​	​	7.5​	Arizona​
7​	6.5​	Philadelphia​	​	6.5​	Philadelphia​
8​	6​	Washington​	​	6​	Washington​
9​	5​	Detroit​	​	5​	Detroit​
10​	3.5​	St. Louis​	​	3.5​	St. Louis​
11​	3​	Vancouver​	​	3​	Vancouver​
12​	2.5​	Ottawa (Arizona)​	​	x​	Anaheim​
13​	2​	Buffalo​	​	x​	Anaheim​
14​	1.5​	Pittsburg​	​	x​	Anaheim​
15​	0.5​	Nashville​	​	x​	Anaheim​
16​	0.5​	Calgary​	​	x​	Anaheim​

For the #1 overall pick draw, Ottawa (Arizona), Buffalo, Pitt, Nashville, and Calgary are all just placeholders for Anaheim. If Anaheim doesn't win the 1st overall pick, then for pick 2, Buffalo, Pitt, Nashville, and Calgary remain placeholders for Anaheim.

In order for Anaheim to finish 1st or 2nd overall, Anaheim has to win the lottery.

 

[91Fedorov]

I think your logic is stuck in thinking picks 12-16 in draw #1 and picks 13-16 in draw #2 actually belong to those slotted teams. They don't. They're only place holders. If you look at the table above, I share how the odds are distributed among the 16 participants for the first draw.

This is wrong. They do belong to those slotted teams. And if those teams win, they move up 10 spots in the lottery.

 

[Mr Rogers]

Your interpretation on who wins is wrong, therefore what you said is incorrect that Anaheim doesn't have to win the lottery to drop down one.

Let's do a tangential example before going into the draft lottery example. All teams are represented in each round of the draft. Ottawa finished with the 12th worst record. Yet, they don't own that pick due to a trade. The 12th overall now belongs to Arizona and Ottawa is just a placeholder for official records, being that all teams are represented in each round of the draft. Come draft time, an Ottawa representative isn't going to the podium with the 12th overall selection, Arizona's representative is going up.

On to the draft lottery example, let's say that Ottawa wins the lottery on the first draw. Ottawa orignally owns the 12th overall pick. Did Ottawa win the #1 pick overall? No. Ottawa is incapable of winning the first overall pick by design and is only a placeholder for Anaheim. Ottawa's slot is needed for the lottery to have that 1,001 odds setup. Similarly, all the teams that cannot jump 10 spots up are all placeholders for the top pick in each draw, giving the worst team in each draw a higher chance of winning that top spot.

​

​	Draft Odds​	2023​	​	​	​
Pick​	2023 Old Rules​	Team​	​	2023 New Rules​	Team​
​ 1​	​ 18.5​	Anaheim​	​	​ 25.5​	Anaheim​
​ 2​	​ 13.5​	Columbus​	​	​ 13.5​	Columbus​
​ 3​	​ 11.5​	Chicago​	​	​ 11.5​	Chicago​
​ 4​	​ 9.5​	San Jose​	​	​ 9.5​	San Jose​
​ 5​	​ 8.5​	Montreal​	​	​ 8.5​	Montreal​
​ 6​	​ 7.5​	Arizona​	​	​ 7.5​	Arizona​
​ 7​	​ 6.5​	Philadelphia​	​	​ 6.5​	Philadelphia​
​ 8​	​ 6​	Washington​	​	​ 6​	Washington​
​ 9​	​ 5​	Detroit​	​	​ 5​	Detroit​
​ 10​	​ 3.5​	St. Louis​	​	​ 3.5​	St. Louis​
​ 11​	​ 3​	Vancouver​	​	​ 3​	Vancouver​
​ 12​	​ 2.5​	Ottawa (Arizona)​	​	x​	Anaheim​
​ 13​	​ 2​	Buffalo​	​	x​	Anaheim​
​ 14​	​ 1.5​	Pittsburg​	​	x​	Anaheim​
​ 15​	​ 0.5​	Nashville​	​	x​	Anaheim​
​ 16​	​ 0.5​	Calgary​	​	x​	Anaheim​

For the #1 overall pick draw, Ottawa (Arizona), Buffalo, Pitt, Nashville, and Calgary are all just placeholders for Anaheim. If Anaheim doesn't win the 1st overall pick, then for pick 2, Buffalo, Pitt, Nashville, and Calgary remain placeholders for Anaheim.

In order for Anaheim to finish 1st or 2nd overall, Anaheim has to win the lottery.

I mean not really. The two teams chosen by the balls are the teams that “won the lottery.” The ducks could still pick 1st or 2nd even if they don’t get drawn. but this is really just turning into a semantics thing I think. My main issue is actually you saying I’m wrong about the process lol

 

[Static]

I've watched and read next to nothing about bedard and really hammered in on Carlsson to the point that I might be weirdly (and incorrectly) bummed if we don't drop to third.

 

[Mr Rogers]

I've watched and read next to nothing about bedard and really hammered in on Carlsson to the point that I might be weirdly (and incorrectly) bummed if we don't drop to third.

He’d be awesome here. Our forward group would be incredibly well-balanced with him in the fold

 

[lwvs84]

He’d be awesome here. Our forward group would be incredibly well-balanced with him in the fold

To add to that, he'd probably be a few mil $ cheaper on his long term contract than Bedard, which means we can keep more of our depth players (that's how I'm justifying losing the lottery at least).

 

[LePerilsofPerreault]

I've watched and read next to nothing about bedard and really hammered in on Carlsson to the point that I might be weirdly (and incorrectly) bummed if we don't drop to third.

I’d like to see Fantilli’s tenacity seep into our other players but I love watching Carlsson’s style of play

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

And when it doesn't happen, straight to the orphanage?

Gunnna throw his ass on offer up

 

[Hockey Duckie]

This is wrong. They do belong to those slotted teams. And if those teams win, they move up 10 spots in the lottery.

You're saying picks 12-16 can win the 1st overall pick? From NHL.com:

Two other changes will begin with the 2022 NHL Draft Lottery:​

​

-- Teams will be restricted from moving up more than 10 spots if it wins one of the lottery draws.​

​

-- Teams cannot win the lottery more than twice in a five-year period. Wins in the lottery prior to 2022 will not be counted toward this total.​

Oh... and here's Tankathon's odds for winning the first overall pick:

Draw #1: teams 1-11 can participate. Teams 12-16 cannot move up.
Draw #2: teams 2-12 can participate. Team 13-16 cannot move up.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

delete.

 

[ADHB]

You're saying picks 12-16 can win the 1st overall pick? From NHL.com:

Two other changes will begin with the 2022 NHL Draft Lottery:​

​

-- Teams will be restricted from moving up more than 10 spots if it wins one of the lottery draws.​

​

-- Teams cannot win the lottery more than twice in a five-year period. Wins in the lottery prior to 2022 will not be counted toward this total.​

Oh... and here's Tankathon's odds for winning the first overall pick:

View attachment 703726

Draw #1: teams 1-11 can participate. Teams 12-16 cannot move up.
Draw #2: teams 2-12 can participate. Team 13-16 cannot move up.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but those teams can and do participate. They can win the drawing, but they just can't move up *more* than 10 spots. They will move up exactly 10 spots. So, for example, if team 13 wins the drawing for #1 overall, they get moved up to 3rd, and the worst team (Ducks) retains the #1 pick.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Yeah this is from the official ducks twitter. No Smith or Benson among the three Wild Wing is looking at:

 

[BringBackTheIceman]

Yeah this is from the official ducks twitter:

No Smith or Benson among the three Wild Wing is lookng at.

I doubt the content team is sitting on scouting meetings

 

[Anaheim4ever]

I doubt the content team is sitting on scouting meetings

It would be big blow to the fans if they end up picking none of those 3 after showing that.
The Ducks website in 2021 had a profile on McTavish among the choices they could draft.

 

[Mr Rogers]

Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but those teams can and do participate. They can win the drawing, but they just can't move up *more* than 10 spots. They will move up exactly 10 spots. So, for example, if team 13 wins the drawing for #1 overall, they get moved up to 3rd, and the worst team (Ducks) retains the #1 pick.

One weird thought I had is what if the Pens at 14th win the 1OA drawing and Sabres (13th) win the 2OA drawing. It would seem that despite the Pens winning the 1OA, Buffalo would still pick ahead of them? Unless there’s some red-tape stipulation on that scenario. Obviously very unlikely.

 

[ADHB]

One weird thought I had is what if the Pens at 14th win the 1OA drawing and Sabres (13th) win the 2OA drawing. It would seem that despite the Pens winning the 1OA, Buffalo would still pick ahead of them? Unless there’s some red-tape stipulation on that scenario. Obviously very unlikely.

Yeah I think they probably get put behind the team that wins #1 in that case. If you look at the odds board, there is a minuscule chance of teams at the bottom picking in spots that wouldn't make sense at first glance. Like for example, the Pens have a very small chance of picking 5th or 6th.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I mean not really. The two teams chosen by the balls are the teams that “won the lottery.” The ducks could still pick 1st or 2nd even if they don’t get drawn. but this is really just turning into a semantics thing I think. My main issue is actually you saying I’m wrong about the process lol

That's a you issue, not my issue. The process is correct, but the allocation of who wins is your mistake.

I'm identifying you're incorrect about you saying "the Ducks can move down one without winning the lottery". They have to win the lottery to win the 1st or 2nd overall pick.

If by “win” you mean the only way they can get the 2nd is by actually winning the drawing for the 2nd pick in the event they are pushed down during the 1st drawing, I’m not sure that’s technically correct, although it’s probably the most likely way. If the team that wins the 2nd drawing is too far back, they wouldn’t bypass the Ducks, and we’d just stay at 2.

Those teams too far back "couldn't" bypass the Ducks by regulation, not "wouldn't". It's impossible for those team to move ahead of the Ducks. Since it's impossible to move up, then those teams are placeholders for the Ducks because the Ducks own those odds to win.

I don't see any asterisk next to the Ducks' odd of winning the first overall pick with a 25.5% chance of winning. Without the new rules, the Ducks' chances of winning the first overall pick is 18.5%.

I don't see any odds listed for Ottawa, Buffalo, Pittsburg, Nashville, nor Calgary winning the first overall pick. In fact, they cannot win the first overall pick as the possibility does not exist. All of their odds belong to Anaheim. There is no possibility those teams can pass up the Ducks because they are not part of the equation to win. They're just placeholders for Anaheim by regulation which is why Anaheim is listed with a 25.5% chance of winning.

 

[ohcomeonref]

Edit: nm, who cares.

 

[Mr Rogers]

That's a you issue, not my issue. The process is correct, but the allocation of who wins is your mistake.

I'm identifying you're incorrect about you saying "the Ducks can move down one without winning the lottery". They have to win the lottery to win the 1st or 2nd overall pick.



Those teams too far back "couldn't" bypass the Ducks by regulation, not "wouldn't". It's impossible for those team to move ahead of the Ducks. Since it's impossible to move up, then those teams are placeholders for the Ducks because the Ducks own those odds to win.

View attachment 703731

I don't see any asterisk next to the Ducks' odd of winning the first overall pick with a 25.5% chance of winning. Without the new rules, the Ducks' chances of winning the first overall pick is 18.5%.

View attachment 703735

I don't see any odds listed for Ottawa, Buffalo, Pittsburg, Nashville, nor Calgary winning the first overall pick. In fact, they cannot win the first overall pick as the possibility does not exist. All of their odds belong to Anaheim. There is no possibility those teams can pass up the Ducks because they are not part of the equation to win. They're just placeholders for Anaheim by regulation which is why Anaheim is listed with a 25.5% chance of winning.

For the last time, it is absolutely 100% a correct statement! The definition of winning the lottery means winning 1 of the 2 drawings, like your team is literally chosen. Nashville (15) and Calgary (16) can win the lottery. The Ducks do not have to win the 2OA drawing (aka winning the lottery) to pick 2nd.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Can’t wait for us to win the second pick so that…..

A - We can stop bickering over the lotto.
B - We can start the “We picked the wrong guy!/No we didn’t!” bickering.

 

[Leonardo87]

Carlsson and Silf will be teammates in the WC.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Carlsson and Silf will be teammates in the WC.

I can already imagine him telling Carlsson, we most likely drop to 3rd overall so here is the list of the best restaurants in the OC and the best beaches.

 

[Leonardo87]

I can already imagine him telling Carlsson, we most likely drop to 3rd overall so here is the list of the best restaurants in the OC and the best beaches.

We are all gonna hype Carlsson, and watch us land that bum Bedard, lol.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

We are all gonna hype Carlsson, and watch us land that bum Bedard, lol.

Silf might just retire then.
Meanwhile McTavish and Bedard become like Steve and Dustin in Stranger Things: