Prospect Info: 2023 NHL Draft (mod warning 1st post)

[Ducks DVM]

Ah, but are we allowed to talk about the political angle. I think that we have been warned about talking politics, and yet that is an integral part of the evaluation regarding the draft of any of the Russian players. Do we/any team draft a Russian player given the political environment, which causes more concern over whether they will come to North American to play hockey? If the draft is a team's future, it can't afford to waste high draft choices for any reason, be it the political environment or a history of questionable maturity.

You can say that a political angle EXISTS. No more.

 

[HanSolo]

Well I killed the time at lunch and between work and Vegas' first game half watching the other playoff games and watching Fantilli and Carlsson video breakdowns/game tape.

Still feel just as confident in either one being a great free pickup. Both are very smart with the puck, have great on ice vision and hockey IQ. Fantilli seems to have a Getzlaf-esque trait of making soft touch passes in tight to make controlled short passes that other players don't tend to contemplate while Carlsson is a closer match to Getzy in terms of play style with attending acceleration issues (but can get up to a high speed with enough strides). My review of both last night was limited to the footage selected for YouTube videos so it's not comprehensive but it seems like Fantilli's issues are a little more easily resolved with physical maturity and exposure development through playing with pros.

I think against bigger guys in the NHL than he sees in the NCAA he might be less effective at pivoting and weaving in tight than he seems to have been with Michigan, at least when considering whether he'd be NHL ready right out of the draft and sometimes his penchant for soft short passes seems like something that can be exploited by active and capable defenders. So puck management seems to be something he needs to work on, but he strikes me as a great option as a future 1C that could be a 90+ point guy that's just as comfortable shooting as he is being the playmaker. And he never seems to give up on a play. We'll see how he looks in the NHL but whether he has the puck or not, he looks like he's always forcing the issue and giving it his best. In any case, my impressions continue to be that Fantilli is very well suited for the modern game.

Carlsson is already a guy that is extremely hard to knock off the puck, I saw many clips from the SHL where he just straight up absorbed contact from grown men and continued advancing the play. His stick handling seems to be strong but I wouldn't call it elite or potentially elite. He may get by in today's NHL by simply not being a guy who opponents want to physically engage and they may prefer to go for positioning and stick denials which will give him more room to stick handle. I think his passing is exactly what you want from a player with his level of pedigree. His shooting leaves something to be desired and I think that's where Getzlaf comparisons stop dead without dedicated work to improve from Carlsson. Both are pass first players almost to a fault but Getzy had blistering power behind his shot. Carlsson seems to have a good release from his wrister and snap shot but the power behind his shots is just a bit above average. And then even though I wouldn't say his skating is a concern necessarily, he definitely has an issue with getting to his top speed from a stop. This is where there's a lot of Getzlaf similarity because it looks like if he has room and time to get to 6+ hard strides, he can get up to a top speed (or I noticed he does this thing where he'll take like 8 quick and short strides just to get the momentum going and then he can take full strides to get moving). So this is just at 18 years old and there's plenty of room to improve but as of now he shows he might not be as effective as he could be at applying forechecking pressure in the neutral zone on an opposing counter attack because he needs that neutral zone time to get back to the defensive zone and keep up with the pace of play. That said, European ice surfaces are significantly larger than NA ice so it's not like he has an uphill battle to improve his skating. Definitely something to work on. But overall I feel fairly confident that he has a tool kit to be an imposing first line center, I'd just argue that his general style of play will make it a little more challenging for him to adapt to the modern NHL and be effective as compared to Fantilli. But I may, mentally, not be accounting enough for the difference between playing against adults and playing on the NCAA.

So I know worst case scenario is we have to decide between who's left of Fantilli and Carlsson or take the risk on Michkov but if we somehow ended up with second, right now I'd lean towards Fantilli just because I think a number of his issues and weak spots are more naturally resolved through ordinary course player development and physical growth. Carlsson still looks to me like a potential franchise player but I can see an issue with him struggling to adapt to the higher pace of play in the NHL.

 

[Beckett]

If Carlsson improves his first step to even average NHL level he's going to be ridiculous, I'd say that's very possible. Good point on him being more useful on the smaller NA ice, totally agree. For a player with his size and lack of first step to play as well as he has on the big ice against men just shows how well he thinks the game.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Ah, but are we allowed to talk about the political angle. I think that we have been warned about talking politics, and yet that is an integral part of the evaluation regarding the draft of any of the Russian players. Do we/any team draft a Russian player given the political environment, which causes more concern over whether they will come to North American to play hockey? If the draft is a team's future, it can't afford to waste high draft choices for any reason, be it the political environment or a history of questionable maturity.

My response was just to point out that many/most people who don't want to draft him are doing so for fear he may never get here for reasons out of his control, not because they doubt his talent. That's where I'm at today although I wasn't there a while back when we didn't have a guaranteed top 3 pic.

For sure politics is very integral to drafting any Russian today. Sad but true.

 

[HanSolo]

If Carlsson improves his first step to even average NHL level he's going to be ridiculous, I'd say that's very possible. Good point on him being more useful on the smaller NA ice, totally agree. For a player with his size and lack of first step to play as well as he has on the big ice against men just shows how well he thinks the game.

Agreed and I think maybe I was a little too dismissive of his puck handling. When I think of the best puck handlers I think of Kane, Getzlaf, Datsyuk, Jagr, and as a contemporary example from the current Ducks, Zegras. I don't think Carlsson is quite at that level but his puck management under defensive pressure and the occasional slick deke to beat a challenging defender is still good. I just wouldn't say it's currently shaping up to be the best of the best. The reason I fall back on the Getzlaf comparison is Getzy made good work of excellent hands and had the freedom to do so because players rarely tried to engage him in a physical battle for the puck in open ice. So Getzy used that to his advantage and often positioned his body in a way that let him make strong dekes to retain possession and trick defenders into errors. I can see Carlsson being able to do the same thing if his development goes well.

Also while I criticized Carlsson's acceleration his edgework and ability to make quick turn maneuvers shouldn't be discounted. It's not like he's a lumbering log out there. Just like you said, he doesn't have the best first step and the explosive start he needs to be ready to take off at any given moment. But I wouldn't say he's a bad skater by any means.

 

[Ducks]

Michkov is going to make whoever drafts him very happy. He's the most highly anticipated Russian prospect since Ovechkin and if not for the political stuff, he'd be #1 in this draft by a mile if Bedard wasn't in it. He's going to be an elite NHL player.

 

[ScarTroy]

Michkov is going to make whoever drafts him very happy. He's the most highly anticipated Russian prospect since Ovechkin and if not for the political stuff, he'd be #1 in this draft by a mile if Bedard wasn't in it. He's going to be an elite NHL player.

I don’t think anyone argues that, I think what everyone is looking at is the chance (however small it may be) that he sets back the rebuild of whoever drafts him. Even if it’s a 1 in 10 chance he never comes, sure would f***ing suck if that was that 1 time. The other 9 times though whoever drafts him looks like geniuses.

 

[Ducks]

I don’t think anyone argues that, I think what everyone is looking at is the chance (however small it may be) that he sets back the rebuild of whoever drafts him. Even if it’s a 1 in 10 chance he never comes, sure would f***ing suck if that was that 1 time. The other 9 times though whoever drafts him looks like geniuses.

I think the only scenario where he doesn't come over is one where all Russian players cannot come to the NHL, and the likelihood of that happening while not zero, just doesn't seem far from zero to me. There's just too much money and positive publicity involved to make that a realistic scenario in my eyes. Putin wants Russian celebrities and sports stars to succeed worldwide because it makes Russia look good (in his eyes at least).

I could be wrong, I mean, Michkov's father did just pass away in very suspicious circumstances, so maybe there is a bigger conspiracy at work, but I don't know. I just don't see it really playing out that way.

 

[Gliff]

I think the only scenario where he doesn't come over is one where all Russian players cannot come to the NHL, and the likelihood of that happening while not zero, just doesn't seem far from zero to me. There's just too much money and positive publicity involved to make that a realistic scenario in my eyes. Putin wants Russian celebrities and sports stars to succeed worldwide because it makes Russia look good (in his eyes at least).

I could be wrong, I mean, Michkov's father did just pass away in very suspicious circumstances, so maybe there is a bigger conspiracy at work, but I don't know. I just don't see it really playing out that way.

If they were going to keep anyone it would be him. He is the national treasure.

 

[Terry Yake]

michkov and bedard would be debated as the #1 pick if it wasn't for the russia thing. that's the only reason why most people aren't going to be willing to pass on fantilli/carlsson for a guy who might never come over

 

[Mr Rogers]

Is he suspected to be that much better than Carlsson/Fantilli where we should run the risk of him never playing for the Ducks, even if it's small? Not to mention, centres are more valuable than wingers. So to take that risk and pass on a guy who maybe doesn't quite reach the offensive peak of Michkov, but could become a PPG+ player and plays centre just doesn't make much sense to me.

 

[HanSolo]

I don't know that I even necessarily agree that he's all that dramatically better than Fantilli and Carlsson either. On his Sochi team he had a lot more opportunity and on KHL ice he had a lot more space to operate. Granted there's an argument that his numbers on a bad team are much more impressive but I don't know if this is a case of one guy being in the generational rung of first overall quality talents, one guy on the lower end of that cusp and two guys as potential franchise superstars. I'm not trying to discredit what Michkov accomplished necessarily, I'd still pick him second overall if there weren't extenuating circumstances but I don't think there's an ocean of difference between him and the next two guys.

There's a size concern with both Bedard and Michkov but Michkov will have to overcome his small stature while adapting to the smaller NHL ice in a league that's faster and has more potential for physical engagement on smaller ice. Carlsson will have to adapt to the same thing but he's never going to have to worry about the physical side unless he becomes lazy in the weight room.

The difference to me, from what I've seen is that Michkov possesses higher skill than the next two guys but I would say hockey IQ, passing, vision, they're all about on par with each other. I don't think we're talking about the difference between someone in the Kucherov/Pastrnak tier versus someone in the Stutzle/Keller tier here.

Obviously post draft development can be impacted by a number of factors but assuming everyone develops as planned and gets to or close to their upside, I don't think we'd be looking at our roster and seeing Carlsson or Fantilli and thinking "yeah he's good and all but f*** me, we could've had Michkov if we were just more ballsy in 2023"

 

[lwvs84]

One of the advantages of Fantilli/Carlsson over Mitchkov is the position versatility. We can match up centers/wings based on what we need in a future playoff series or if Z never gets the handle on faceoffs/defense and learns to be more effective at wing, we can put one of the other guys at C with Z on their wing. It also covers for if/when one of the centers gets injured. Having 3 guys that can play top 6 C (possibly even 1C) gives the team options that it has never had before.

 

[HanSolo]

One of the advantages of Fantilli/Carlsson over Mitchkov is the position versatility. We can match up centers/wings based on what we need in a future playoff series or if Z never gets the handle on faceoffs/defense and learns to be more effective at wing, we can put one of the other guys at C with Z on their wing. It also covers for if/when one of the centers gets injured. Having 3 guys that can play top 6 C (possibly even 1C) gives the team options that it has never had before.

A solid point too.

Would be nice if we could just win the lottery outright and not worry about this shit but given how ravenously we rooted for third guaranteed I'm still not going to sweat it too much. If it's me, I'm not taking the risk on Michkov. If the team picking second overall takes that risk and takes the choice out of our hands, all the better.

 

[tomd]

All this Michkov talk is pointless. PV will grit his teeth and take 5'10" Bedard if the Ducks win the lottery but IMO there is ZERO chance he passes on 6'2" Fantilli or 6'3" Carlsson for 5'10" Michkov at 2 or 3. The fact that Michkov doesn't play a lick of defense doesn't help his case either.

 

[goonsaredumb]

All this Michkov talk is pointless. PV will grit his teeth and take 5'10" Bedard if the Ducks win the lottery but IMO there is ZERO chance he passes on 6'2" Fantilli or 6'3" Carlsson for 5'10" Michkov at 2 or 3. The fact that Michkov doesn't play a lick of defense doesn't help his case either.

I'd have to agree with you here, Verbeek clearly loves his big players, with Bedard it's a no brainer he's the best guy in the draft and there's no uncertainty around him playing in the NHL plus he plays bigger than his size, not afraid to get physical, I'm sure Verbeek as a smaller guy who played bigger than his size appreciates that element, but with Michkov it's hard to imagine Verbeek passing up on two big, NHL ready centres with great two-way games for an undersized Russian winger who lacks much of a defensive game and might not come over here for years.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

We'll see how he looks in the NHL but whether he has the puck or not, he looks like he's always forcing the issue and giving it his best.

Great breakdown.

Your description quoted above is the reason I labeled his style of play as "Hero Puck" as he lacks that team game chemistry. His athleticism and elite skating takes a front seat to team play. In the 2021 draft, there was a player similar to Fantilli such that their athleticism and gifted play didn't play well in a team game atmosphere because of "Hero Puck"; that player is Kent Johnson. IMO, Johnson has the highest talent ceiling in the 2021 draft, but has a difficult time playing a team game effort. Johnson is still developing that team game aspect.

What scares me is Fantilli's WCJ and playoff performances against higher level competition. At the WJC, he's darting everywhere like a whirling dervish and, like a whirling dervish, no one knows where exactly he's going. Fantilli's offense in the Big-10 and Frozen Four tourney against higher level competition got muted. Rugter McGroarty was the big producer in those games.

Hopefully, time will help improve Fantilli's team game, like you said. If he doesn't grasp the team game philosophy well, then he might be following Kent Johnson's path, which is to play on the wing. That elite speed, visual tenacity, and goal scoring brings lots of potential.

 

[GunnarStahl]

Does anyone have any 2nd or mid round targets?

Haltunnen, Stramel, Simashev, But, and Ziemmer seem like compelling profiles to me for the first second.

 

[HanSolo]

Great breakdown.

Your description quoted above is the reason I labeled his style of play as "Hero Puck" as he lacks that team game chemistry. His athleticism and elite skating takes a front seat to team play. In the 2021 draft, there was a player similar to Fantilli such that their athleticism and gifted play didn't play well in a team game atmosphere because of "Hero Puck"; that player is Kent Johnson. IMO, Johnson has the highest talent ceiling in the 2021 draft, but has a difficult time playing a team game effort. Johnson is still developing that team game aspect.

What scares me is Fantilli's WCJ and playoff performances against higher level competition. At the WJC, he's darting everywhere like a whirling dervish and, like a whirling dervish, no one knows where exactly he's going. Fantilli's offense in the Big-10 and Frozen Four tourney against higher level competition got muted. Rugter McGroarty was the big producer in those games.

Hopefully, time will help improve Fantilli's team game, like you said. If he doesn't grasp the team game philosophy well, then he might be following Kent Johnson's path, which is to play on the wing. That elite speed, visual tenacity, and goal scoring brings lots of potential.

Yeah I can see that and I remember you talking about it before (and the term "hero puck" really stuck with me) but I didn't really consider it until you brought it back up.

The hope there is he's just anxious about proving himself to the teams considering drafting him. But certainly always better for a player to learn how to utilize all 5 other guys on the ice sooner rather than later. At least from my viewings it still looked like he was playing that hero puck with the aim of setting up chances as often as he was shooting it. But I understand there's more to it than just bulling your way to the best playmaking opportunity. Sometimes you need to hand the puck off to advance it. Unless you're McDavid, there's no sense in trying to be charge forward with the puck every time (here and there is fine for an elite talent).

The benefit of us drafting him would be that Verbeek, assuming he picks up on this, can tell Fantilli directly that he figures into be a centerpiece of our future but he absolutely has to work on being more of a team oriented player. He can't put too much pressure on Michigan to ensure that happens in the D+1 year, but a direct advisement from an NHL GM could be effective.

 

[goonsaredumb]

Fantilli's offense in the Big-10 and Frozen Four tourney against higher level competition got muted. Rugter McGroarty was the big producer in those games.

McGroarty had 1 more point than Fantilli in those games and Fantilli had 1 more shot in those games than McGroarty, I don't think it's really fair to say his offense got muted when he was over a point per game in those 3 games, he also contributed outside of the scoresheet with his face off wins and defensive play, I also thought he looked fantastic at the World Juniors, he wasn't putting up the big numbers Bedard was but he was an absolute stud defensively and he looked like a great team player to me, I don't know I wasn't seeing the hero puck element as much personally, not saying I wasn't seeing it at all but I think his team play was there, he seemed to tone down the hero puck stuff after the first game of the tournament and get more in rhythm with the team based play.

 

[HunterDuck]

the Swedish Lion of Orange County

 

[Hockey Duckie]

The benefit of us drafting him would be that Verbeek, assuming he picks up on this, can tell Fantilli directly that he figures into be a centerpiece of our future but he absolutely has to work on being more of a team oriented player. He can't put too much pressure on Michigan to ensure that happens in the D+1 year, but a direct advisement from an NHL GM could be effective.

I think Michigan wants Fantilli to develop into that team player to help elevate his team and his play, but that's all gonna be on Fantilli. Another year at Michigan might serve Fantilli better as he already knows he can dominate at hero puck, but for him to be more effective against higher level competition, then he needs to develop that team game chemistry.

If it doesn't work out, then that's still good for us b/c Fantilli can shift to wing and because we do have centers that see the ice better for the team with Z and McTavish.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Why are you guys giving a new poster/Ducks fan a hard time, more the merrier. 5-6 years ago I came here, and the first reply I got was “How is McIlrath” lol.

In my defense you deserved it

 

[Leonardo87]

In my defense you deserved it

It honestly didn‘t bother me, since I am/was a Fowler fan.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

It honestly didn‘t bother me, since I am/was a Fowler fan.

I still bring it up to machinehead bern and edjovanovski everytime I cross paths with them