2023 NHL Draft June 28 and 29, Nashville, TN (Selections - 13, 39, 45, 86, 109, 141, 173, 205)

[Der Jaeger]

Reasonably, not enough time has passed for anyone drafted by Adams to be considered a bust so it's a bit misleading, though his drafting is looking really good so far.

Been saying this for a while now.

Trust the process

Agreed, it is early. But the process is established. I don’t remember the Sabres making this many seemingly correct moves and picks in a while.

There will be busts, for sure. But so far it looks like Adams and his team have the Sabres in the right path.

 

[Chainshot]

They start with commentary on Musty.

 

[Husko]

Could anyone be so kind to point me toward the 3-5 players most likely to be there for our pick that we're hoping for? Any guesses who might be on Adams radar based on past trends?

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Could anyone be so kind to point me toward the 3-5 players most likely to be there for our pick that we're hoping for? Any guesses who might be on Adams radar based on past trends?

Wood, Moore, Sandin-Pallikka, Barlow, Simashev are ones who will likely be available and expected to go around where we pick.

Some pipe dreams are: Dvorsky, Benson, Reinbacher, Danielson

 

[truthbluth]

Could anyone be so kind to point me toward the 3-5 players most likely to be there for our pick that we're hoping for? Any guesses who might be on Adams radar based on past trends?

This draft, at this spot, is far less predictable than precious drafts imo. I could see maybe 10 players. Plus at least one player that I'd expect to go top 10
Will slip.

No chance:
Bedard
Fantilli
Carlsson
Smith

People know something we don't:
Mitchkov

Very unlikely:
Dvorsky
Benson*
Reinbacher*
Moore
Leonard*

Possible:
Sandin-Pelikka
Barlow*
Sale
Yager
Danielson*
Simashev*
Wood*
But*
Honzek*
Musty
Heidt
Ritchie
Brindley
Perreault

What is Kev doing?:
Cristall

I put * next to the players most discussed on these boards by people who pay much closer attention than me.

 

[Chainshot]

Could anyone be so kind to point me toward the 3-5 players most likely to be there for our pick that we're hoping for? Any guesses who might be on Adams radar based on past trends?

There is so wide a swath of players in the tier that just focusing on 3-5 is kind of hard in terms of rating. Adams likes competitive guys who are smart and who can add to themselves physically. That fits 10-12 guys at 13, possibly more. This draft could see the guy going at 39 developing into guys better than at 13 IMO.

 

[Chainshot]

This draft, at this spot, is far less predictable than precious drafts imo. I could see maybe 10 players. Plus at least one player that I'd expect to go top 10
Will slip.

No chance:
Bedard
Fantilli
Carlsson
Smith

People know something we don't:
Mitchkov

Very unlikely:
Dvorsky
Benson*
Reinbacher*
Moore
Leonard*

Possible:
Sandin-Pelikka
Barlow*
Sale
Yager
Danielson*
Simashev*
Wood*
But*
Honzek*
Musty
Heidt
Ritchie
Brindley
Perreault

What is Kev doing?:
Cristall

I put * next to the players most discussed on these boards by people who pay much closer attention than me.

I appreciate you listing so many of them out. It's so very deep that some of those guys might be a 13OA contemplation that winds up being at 39 or 45.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

2023 NHL Draft Stock

For those who are interested in players and want to get an idea of who might be available at the Sabres picks, this is a handy tool. It’s the first edition of it. Hopefully next year you can also search by pick number as well.

 

[Husko]

There is so wide a swath of players in the tier that just focusing on 3-5 is kind of hard in terms of rating. Adams likes competitive guys who are smart and who can add to themselves physically. That fits 10-12 guys at 13, possibly more. This draft could see the guy going at 39 developing into guys better than at 13 IMO.

As a very casual observer of the NHL drafter (especially compared to how I nerd out for the nfl draft), it strikes me that we're hearing this sort of language more and more often lately. Not necessarily exactly like this, but just generally the idea of really big tiers and big clumping after the top couple of tiers. I wonder if that's an actual trend? If somehow it's getting harder to hone in on who the best prospects are? Just a general observation.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

This draft, at this spot, is far less predictable than precious drafts imo. I could see maybe 10 players. Plus at least one player that I'd expect to go top 10
Will slip.

No chance:
Bedard
Fantilli
Carlsson
Smith

People know something we don't:
Mitchkov

Very unlikely:
Dvorsky
Benson*
Reinbacher*
Moore
Leonard*

Possible:
Sandin-Pelikka
Barlow*
Sale
Yager
Danielson*
Simashev*
Wood*
But*
Honzek*
Musty
Heidt
Ritchie
Brindley
Perreault

What is Kev doing?:
Cristall

I put * next to the players most discussed on these boards by people who pay much closer attention than me.

Moore should be in the possible category. Definitely not "very unlikely."

 

[Zach716]

I’d be happy with a move up to grab Michkov if he falls enough or a Simashev/Sandin Pelikka pick.

I know BPA is always wisest but we really have a logjam on forward coming up and I’d want it to be an excellent value pick if we do end up F.

 

[Chainshot]

I’d be happy with a move up to grab Michkov if he falls enough or a Simashev/Sandin Pelikka pick.

I know BPA is always wisest but we really have a logjam on forward coming up and I’d want it to be an excellent value pick if we do end up F.

Expect them to not move up. The draft day moves into the top 10 in the cap era can be counted on 1 hand, hell, 1 finger. And while they have a lot of forwards, differentiation is certainly possible.

As a very casual observer of the NHL drafter (especially compared to how I nerd out for the nfl draft), it strikes me that we're hearing this sort of language more and more often lately. Not necessarily exactly like this, but just generally the idea of really big tiers and big clumping after the top couple of tiers. I wonder if that's an actual trend? If somehow it's getting harder to hone in on who the best prospects are? Just a general observation.

Part of it was losing the COVID year evaluation cycles. People didn't play anywhere for a while and we're still seeing people sort through those. Part of it is geopolitical. Last year's top tier would likely be in the third tier this year - I would take Bedard, Carlsson, Fantilli and Michkov over Slafkovsky without thinking twice. Part of why I think Adams is so public about wanting to make his selection is the player at 13 this year - at least from where I sit - is going to be on par with or perhaps better than Savoie if we compare them on individual draft days. And then there is so much parity in the there. It's a gradient from up around 8-9 down easily into the upper 20's and even then from the upper 20's down into the 30's for me. I can see Simashev going anywhere from 11OA to early the second day. Willander I had around 39 until his U18's so now he's in the 20's but someone may like him enough to pluck him at say 16 or so. The variation is going to be team and scouting community specific which means a team might pass on someone who is going to crush their development cycle and wind up being great a bit lower down.

 

[Ace]

You need to always apply scarcity principles to the draft too. You might have a personal ranking or look at an analysts ranking that you respect and see a big forward or a puck moving/and or RH D or a natural C with size who is ranked low but they go higher than ranked all the time. Because everyone wants a certain type of player and they are scarce. BPA in the draft is impacted by scarcity value every year. When you’re looking for players to “drop” you have to look at who will be “overdrafted”. Which are, traditionally, puck moving/and or RH D, natural C with size and big forwards. How did Savoie, Ostlund and Kulich fall into the Sabres picks last year when they had all of them rated higher than where they drafted them? They all had attributes that could be passed by scarcity value. Savoie and Ostlund are small. Kulich isn’t as small but he’s the least likely to be a center. He still should not have fallen that far. There is also a misunderstanding of Czech league production at work there. His AHL breakout might have teams rethinking their models on that.

anyway…the most likely players to “fall” to 13 (outside of Michkov…who actually fits every criteria for falling without his unique Russian factor…but is far too talented for it to happen if he was from anywhere else) are Benson, Moore and Perreault (if you consider Perreault a faller, I don’t but his production is stupid and in another class he’d be ranked much higher). But you need people to pass them. Most likely to be guys like ASP and Willander. Also a guy like Wood going ahead of those forwards. But would be one if he wasn’t Russian.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

I’d be happy with a move up to grab Michkov if he falls enough or a Simashev/Sandin Pelikka pick.

I know BPA is always wisest but we really have a logjam on forward coming up and I’d want it to be an excellent value pick if we do end up F.

Sandin Pelikka clocked in at 5'11" and 180. lbs. Still small for a Dman but a bit bigger than I thought he was.

 

[truthbluth]

Moore should be in the possible category. Definitely not "very unlikely."

That’s probably right

 

[Chainshot]

NHL Draft Rankings - FC Hockey

nhlentrydraft.com

FC's final rankings. Again, the variability of it all on display with stuff like Leonard down in the 20's and Honzek in the 30's.

 

[Dingo44]

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

NHL Draft Rankings - FC Hockey

nhlentrydraft.com

FC's final rankings. Again, the variability of it all on display with stuff like Leonard down in the 20's and Honzek in the 30's.

That's someone who isn't taking reality into consideration. Teams are slobbering all over Leonard at the combine, for instance.

That's the only good thing about guys like Pronman and McKensie, who hear things from NHL scouts and incorporate them into their commentary and lists. Let's be honest, opinions are like you-know-what and at this point I'm mainly interested in the buzz coming from the teams instead of the young internet scouts on the outside.

 

[Chainshot]

 

[Chainshot]

 

[Chainshot]

 

[Chainshot]

 

[Chainshot]

This made me laugh -

 

[Chainshot]

 

[MarkusKetterer]