2023 NHL Draft June 28 and 29, Nashville, TN (Selections - 13, 39, 45, 86, 109, 141, 173, 205)

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The Blunder Years

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Humour me... If Simashev were named Dominic Smith and played for usntdp... Where would he be ranked?
I don’t think any different. If anything, the Sabres board overrates him due to positional need. If he had some more offense to his game he would be ranked higher. It is very hard for defensive defensemen to go in the top 10-15 in 2023.
 
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HOOats

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It is very hard for defensive defensemen to go in the top 10-15 in 2023.
True, yet developed defensive defensemen seem rarely available in trades (and get overvalued in trade conversations on these boards, ala Roy).

Given that, they seem to be somewhat undervalued in the draft. I'm curious where the sweet spot is to draft but not reach for quality defensive D. It seems like the third round might be it, but all those guys below took time and are in their prime now. The top of the second for guys like Sammy and Carlo, and the fourth also produces some guys.

Ekblad (2014) 1-1
Heiskanen (2017) 1-3
Pietrangelo (2008) 1-4
Larsson (2011) 1-4
Nurse (2013) 1-7
Brodin (2011) 1-10
McDonagh (2007) 1-12
Morrissey (2013) 1-13
McAvoy (2016) 1-14
Sanheim (2014) 1-17
Miller (2018) 1-22
Samuelsson (2018) 2-32
Carlo (2015) 2-37
Cernak (2015) 2-43
Lindgren (2016) 2-49
Sieganthaler (2015) 2-57
Severson (2012) 2-60
Pelech (2012) 3-65
Pesce (2013) 3-66
Lindell (2012) 3-74
Parayko (2012) 3-83
Grzelcyk (2012) 3-85
Anderson (2017) 4-103
Toews (2014) 4-108
Graves (2013) 4-110
Brodie (2008) 4-114
Slavin (2012) 4-120
Jensen (2009) 5-150
Gavrikov (2015) 6-159
Weegar (2013) 7-206
Tanev (2010) UDFA

Any of our draftniks have defensive D targets for our picks at 39/45, 87, and 109? Going forward 13 then three D could be ideal.
 

Selanne00008

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The trend is clear, BobMc already dropped him to 5, lets see where is on his final list.

Seems teams are already preparing the excuse why they could not take him.

whats going on with Mich? I always assumed he was goin top 3 since forever ago.
Has his production slid? I assume it's concern/PR/Issues with coming over to the NHL?
 

Ehran

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whats going on with Mich? I always assumed he was goin top 3 since forever ago.
Has his production slid? I assume it's concern/PR/Issues with coming over to the NHL?
A couple of things, and the Russian component is definitely one of them.

Another is that he's signed with his KHL team for 2 years so many teams are reluctant to invest a #3 pick on someone they can't work with or develop for 2 years.

Plus, with the Russians being banned from major international tournaments nobody has been able to scout him against his age appropriate peers. What they see in the KHL isn't the best to evaluate him.
 

Chainshot

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True, yet developed defensive defensemen seem rarely available in trades (and get overvalued in trade conversations on these boards, ala Roy).

Given that, they seem to be somewhat undervalued in the draft. I'm curious where the sweet spot is to draft but not reach for quality defensive D. It seems like the third round might be it, but all those guys below took time and are in their prime now. The top of the second for guys like Sammy and Carlo, and the fourth also produces some guys.

Ekblad (2014) 1-1
Heiskanen (2017) 1-3
Pietrangelo (2008) 1-4
Larsson (2011) 1-4
Nurse (2013) 1-7
Brodin (2011) 1-10
McDonagh (2007) 1-12
Morrissey (2013) 1-13
McAvoy (2016) 1-14
Sanheim (2014) 1-17
Miller (2018) 1-22
Samuelsson (2018) 2-32
Carlo (2015) 2-37
Cernak (2015) 2-43
Lindgren (2016) 2-49
Sieganthaler (2015) 2-57
Severson (2012) 2-60
Pelech (2012) 3-65
Pesce (2013) 3-66
Lindell (2012) 3-74
Parayko (2012) 3-83
Grzelcyk (2012) 3-85
Anderson (2017) 4-103
Toews (2014) 4-108
Graves (2013) 4-110
Brodie (2008) 4-114
Slavin (2012) 4-120
Jensen (2009) 5-150
Gavrikov (2015) 6-159
Weegar (2013) 7-206
Tanev (2010) UDFA

Any of our draftniks have defensive D targets for our picks at 39/45, 87, and 109? Going forward 13 then three D could be ideal.

Part of the problem with just targeting someone to be a defensive defenseman is that it seems harder for a player to not be unproductive offensively at developmental levels prior to the draft or even right after and turn out. It's the art of scouting - how does someone project and will they make it to that tier?

Useful defensemen tend to be molded into roles. For some guys who probably project out as more useful as defensemen, there are so many who look like they might be something in the 2nd-4th rounds but it's going to take work from them and from the organization drafting them.

As an example, I like Brady Cleveland from the NTDP and it's not based on points. He's a hard kid to play against around his net and hits to hurt. His issues are going to be is there enough offense there to make him a passable player? He's way more likely to be Patrick Sieloff than say Will Borgen with the production he had on a good scoring U18 team. Think of the low-production (ie. low skill) guys Botterill went with in the late rounds in 2018. If he's around say in the 5th round, I'd be picking him up and stashing him for later but the likelihood is that he's not going to be one of those guys because he doesn't get offensive situations and doesn't do enough offensively at his development level to get the puck out. If he's around at 109 or later, I might look at him.

Similarly, someone like Axel Landen who is a hard, hard individual physically and is more adept at just muscling up on a shot than any other offensive play could be another one. There might be more there, but that's more for someone whose watching a lot of his J20 games than just me flipping through a bunch of U18 tournaments and thinking - "that guy takes care of his crease with authority". I'm curious about him, maybe an 87, maybe later


A bunch of the Swedes at the U18's impresses: Willander's U18's probably get him pulled into the last third of the first round. Theo Lindstein showed out and I'd have him in the 39/45 talk if he's not already gone. Some of the smaller PMD's did too (Bergstrom more than Wikman who only played in 2 games) but then there is Kristian Kostadinski or Axel Hurtig who are both sizeable and mobile enough against their peers so that's probably 109 or later.

NA-wise in the earlish part of the draft, Hunter Brzustewicz is someone I've really liked in limited OHL viewing in Kitchener. He's probably going in the first half of the 2nd round IMO if not slipping into the late 1st. He'd be one to look at who seems like he's going to be a solid mid-pairing RHD. But he might be a 39.

I'm impressed with Simashev for his age in the KHL. I think he goes before 39 and I'm not sold enough to go there at 13. I've talked about him a bunch - frame and tools, projectability - and who knows if he's there.

Martin Strbak from the Slovak U18 and U20 teams could be one of those 3rd round types who continues to add to his game - his offense in the USHL isn't Cleveland-level low, he's middle of his roster in production on a weak Sioux Falls team but takes care of his own end first. I'm drawn to him when he's on the ice, I like what he's doing most of the time. 87/109 should be a player. Maybe even up to 45, but again, that's maybe more scarcity than merit for me. *shrug*

Gavin McCarthy's a local kid (his brother Case was hurt and couldn't play for BU at the Frozen Four), righty with some physical swagger and skill. There is the possibility of digging up someone who might be game to try to be just a bit more to play for the local team - some teams have that pull on guys and it works to get a bit more out of 'em (and some fail). That's a 109 type.
 

Chainshot

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A couple of things, and the Russian component is definitely one of them.

Another is that he's signed with his KHL team for 2 years so many teams are reluctant to invest a #3 pick on someone they can't work with or develop for 2 years.

Plus, with the Russians being banned from major international tournaments nobody has been able to scout him against his age appropriate peers. What they see in the KHL isn't the best to evaluate him.

If he slipped to 13, run to the podium. Don't walk, run, and select him.
 

HOOats

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Part of the problem with just targeting someone to be a defensive defenseman is that it seems harder for a player to not be unproductive offensively at developmental levels prior to the draft or even right after and turn out. It's the art of scouting - how does someone project and will they make it to that tier?

Useful defensemen tend to be molded into roles. For some guys who probably project out as more useful as defensemen, there are so many who look like they might be something in the 2nd-4th rounds but it's going to take work from them and from the organization drafting them.

As an example, I like Brady Cleveland from the NTDP and it's not based on points. He's a hard kid to play against around his net and hits to hurt. His issues are going to be is there enough offense there to make him a passable player? He's way more likely to be Patrick Sieloff than say Will Borgen with the production he had on a good scoring U18 team. Think of the low-production (ie. low skill) guys Botterill went with in the late rounds in 2018. If he's around say in the 5th round, I'd be picking him up and stashing him for later but the likelihood is that he's not going to be one of those guys because he doesn't get offensive situations and doesn't do enough offensively at his development level to get the puck out. If he's around at 109 or later, I might look at him.

Similarly, someone like Axel Landen who is a hard, hard individual physically and is more adept at just muscling up on a shot than any other offensive play could be another one. There might be more there, but that's more for someone whose watching a lot of his J20 games than just me flipping through a bunch of U18 tournaments and thinking - "that guy takes care of his crease with authority". I'm curious about him, maybe an 87, maybe later


A bunch of the Swedes at the U18's impresses: Willander's U18's probably get him pulled into the last third of the first round. Theo Lindstein showed out and I'd have him in the 39/45 talk if he's not already gone. Some of the smaller PMD's did too (Bergstrom more than Wikman who only played in 2 games) but then there is Kristian Kostadinski or Axel Hurtig who are both sizeable and mobile enough against their peers so that's probably 109 or later.

NA-wise in the earlish part of the draft, Hunter Brzustewicz is someone I've really liked in limited OHL viewing in Kitchener. He's probably going in the first half of the 2nd round IMO if not slipping into the late 1st. He'd be one to look at who seems like he's going to be a solid mid-pairing RHD. But he might be a 39.

I'm impressed with Simashev for his age in the KHL. I think he goes before 39 and I'm not sold enough to go there at 13. I've talked about him a bunch - frame and tools, projectability - and who knows if he's there.

Martin Strbak from the Slovak U18 and U20 teams could be one of those 3rd round types who continues to add to his game - his offense in the USHL isn't Cleveland-level low, he's middle of his roster in production on a weak Sioux Falls team but takes care of his own end first. I'm drawn to him when he's on the ice, I like what he's doing most of the time. 87/109 should be a player. Maybe even up to 45, but again, that's maybe more scarcity than merit for me. *shrug*

Gavin McCarthy's a local kid (his brother Case was hurt and couldn't play for BU at the Frozen Four), righty with some physical swagger and skill. There is the possibility of digging up someone who might be game to try to be just a bit more to play for the local team - some teams have that pull on guys and it works to get a bit more out of 'em (and some fail). That's a 109 type.
Awesome, thanks for the knowledge.

All interesting names, but Landen and McCarthy sound ideal. Going to look into them more.
 

Chainshot

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Awesome, thanks for the knowledge.

All interesting names, but Landen and McCarthy sound ideal. Going to look into them more.

Case, Gavin's older brother, hasn't signed with the Devils who drafted him and he's talking about taking his 5th year eligibility to stay and play with his little brother. BU's stocked and I haven't dug into who for sure is coming back and if they will have the minutes for both of those guys and Kai Janviriya and Ty Gallagher and whoever else they have on their recruit list.

Landen's one of the guys who I saw last August and my assessment has been he plays a hard, heavy game. Same with Cleveland. *shrug* That may not be any part of what they want since there is certainly an emphasis on being able to move the puck now that is almost a must in the NHL.
 

Ace

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They can take a defensive D with every pick from round 2 on for all I care…but reaching at 13 should be a non-starter. What’s very likely to happen given the history of the draft is that the top two RHD go before 13. Teams can’t help themselves. The always go higher than expected. Now…everyone knows that so some of it is already baked in to mock drafts…but they still manage to jump up and beat those projections every year.

Which leaves you with another forward for value…or reaching for a D (which has been a fear of mine since they went crazy on forwards every year under Adams knowing what this draft was and wasn’t). Neither option is ideal given our pipeline. Especially given what I think of the forwards likely to be there. Maybe they can convince themselves that the third D is worth it. But I’d bet a lot they wouldn’t if last years picks had gone differently.
 

Fjordy

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I don’t think any different. If anything, the Sabres board overrates him due to positional need. If he had some more offense to his game he would be ranked higher. It is very hard for defensive defensemen to go in the top 10-15 in 2023.
Or is he just a really good player? I don't overestimate Simashev, and if there's a forward on the board that they think is better than him, they should take him. But underestimating Simashev is also wrong, I'm sure the majority here have not even seen his game. He also has good ratings in various scouting reports.
 

Sabres

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All this talk about Michkov continuing to fall blows my mind. Before this disaster with Russia, scouts had him and Bedard as near equal prospects. Michkov had been the projected #2 pick for years. He had 20 points in 30 KHL games this year, statlines like that literally just don’t happen for draft eligible players.

We should package whatever secondary pieces we need to trade up to get him.
 
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Fjordy

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All this talk about Michkov continuing to fall blows my mind. Before this disaster with Russia, scouts had him and Bedard as near equal prospects. Michkov had been the projected #2 pick for years. He had 20 points in 30 KHL games this year, statlines like that literally just don’t happen for draft eligible players.

We should package whatever secondary pieces we need to trade up to get him.
I think the contract factor will also influence, not all GMs can wait until their potential main star arrives in three years, the Russian factor can also be. Even the player's position can affect, though if the GM chooses a BPA then it shouldn't.

Michkov is a great player and probably the only one close or equal to Bedard, he played in probably the worst team in the KHL with almost no help and still scored 20 points in 27 games. at such a young age. Guys like Yurov, Miro didn't even come close to that.
 
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Sabres

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I think the contract factor will also influence, not all GMs can wait until their potential main star arrives in three years, the Russian factor can also be. Even the player's position can affect, though if the GM chooses a BPA then it shouldn't.

Michkov is a great player and probably the only one close or equal to Bedard, he played in probably the worst team in the KHL with almost no help and still scored 20 points in 27 games. at such a young age. Guys like Yurov, Miro didn't even come close to that.

Yeah I understand, obviously a lot of factors. I just wonder what GM is gonna smarten up and take him. Hopefully Kevyn and the scouting staff like him and we can do something crazy

Michkov’s 20 points in 27 games (.74 ppg) in his draft year is higher than Ovechkin’s 26 points in 37 games (.70 ppg) in his D+1 season. I’m not saying he’s better than Ovechkin, that was a long time ago and the league is different. But Michkov has the potential to be special
 

Jim Bob

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All this talk about Michkov continuing to fall blows my mind. Before this disaster with Russia, scouts had him and Bedard as near equal prospects. Michkov had been the projected #2 pick for years. He had 20 points in 30 KHL games this year, statlines like that literally just don’t happen for draft eligible players.

We should package whatever secondary pieces we need to trade up to get him.
It is unlikely.

Here is why:

History of trading back in the top 20 of the NHL Draft

Hockey Draft Pick Transactions

2022: SJ traded 11 to Arizona for 27, 34, & 45

2021: Dallas traded 14 to Detroit for 22, 47, & 137

Edmonton traded 19 to Minnesota for 21 & 89

2020: Calgary traded 19 to NYR for 22 & 71

2019: Philadelphia traded 11 to Arizona for 14 & 45

2018: NONE

2017: NONE

2016: NJ traded 11 to Ottawa for 12 & 80

Philadelphia traded 18 & 79 to Winnipeg for 22 & 36

2015: NONE

2014: SJ traded 20 & 179 to Chicago for 27 & 62

2013: Detroit traded 18 to SJ for 20 & 58

Teams have not traded out of the top 10 for picks like in the NFL Draft in the last 10 NHL drafts.

Manifesting Michkov falling to 13 is more likely to happen than the Sabres being able to move up on draft night using a 2nd or two as ammo to move up.
 

Dirty Dog

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It is unlikely.

Here is why:

History of trading back in the top 20 of the NHL Draft

Hockey Draft Pick Transactions

2022: SJ traded 11 to Arizona for 27, 34, & 45

2021: Dallas traded 14 to Detroit for 22, 47, & 137

Edmonton traded 19 to Minnesota for 21 & 89

2020: Calgary traded 19 to NYR for 22 & 71

2019: Philadelphia traded 11 to Arizona for 14 & 45

2018: NONE

2017: NONE

2016: NJ traded 11 to Ottawa for 12 & 80

Philadelphia traded 18 & 79 to Winnipeg for 22 & 36

2015: NONE

2014: SJ traded 20 & 179 to Chicago for 27 & 62

2013: Detroit traded 18 to SJ for 20 & 58

Teams have not traded out of the top 10 for picks like in the NFL Draft in the last 10 NHL drafts.

Manifesting Michkov falling to 13 is more likely to happen than the Sabres being able to move up on draft night using a 2nd or two as ammo to move up.

Though, I will say the .1 percent chance we move up may be more than the 0 percent he drops down to us. But I’m splitting hairs :)
 
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Jim Bob

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6. Arizona Coyotes - Matvei Michkov, RW, Sochi (KHL)
The wild card of the draft, Michkov slides out of the top five and into Arizona's lap. The small, dynamic winger possesses game-breaking abilities. He's an elusive skater and nifty stick-handler with tremendous upside. Michkov, who's under contract in Russia through 2025-26, played for four different teams this past season, most notably piling up 20 points in 27 games for Sochi in the KHL. The Coyotes are in no rush to be competitive and desperately need an otherworldly talent like Michkov to sell to the local market.





13. Buffalo Sabres - Oliver Moore, C, USNTDP U-18
Buffalo drafted three standout young forwards - Matthew Savoie, Noah Ostlund, and Jiri Kulich - in last year's first round. Joining their ranks is Moore, an excellent skater whose doggedness at both ends of the ice heightens his floor as a prospect. He's committed to play for the University of Minnesota next season.


13. Buffalo Sabres

Kimelman -- Matthew Wood, RW, Connecticut (NCAA):
Wood's game got better as the season went on, capped by 13 points (seven goals, six assists) in seven games for Canada at World U-18s, where he answered any questions about his skating. His size (6-4, 193) and skill make him one of the best players below the dots in this draft class. The Sabres have built an impressive array of young offensive talent, led by Tage Thompson (also a Connecticut product), Alex Tuch, Peyton Krebs, Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn. Wood would make a strong group even better.

Morreale -- Nate Danielson, C, Brandon (WHL): It's a great opportunity for the Sabres to add a skilled right-handed shot with vision and patience with the puck. Danielson (6-2, 185) made one of the most significant jumps in Central Scouting's final ranking of North American skaters, from No. 13 on the midterm list in January to No. 7, after leading Brandon with 78 points (33 goals, 45 assists) in 68 regular-season games. He can play all situations, including the power play and penalty kill.
 
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Chainshot

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So what you're saying is ONG is actually Mike Morreale's burner.
 

HOOats

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Are Moore and Danielson each safe bets to stick at center at the NHL level? I don't hate the idea of continuing to stockpile the position (there may or may not be a devil on one of my shoulders that keeps me worried about Tage's long-term durability and elite production).
 

Chainshot

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Are Moore and Danielson each safe bets to stick at center at the NHL level? I don't hate the idea of continuing to stockpile the position (there may or may not be a devil on one of my shoulders that keeps me worried about Tage's long-term durability and elite production).

I can see both making it at center. And if nothing else, both have a bit higher floor - they should be good depth players if they don't hit their offensive potential.
 
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BloFan4Life

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I was thinking about this and kind of thinking this may be a thing going forward.

How much NIL money could Bedard make in college (obviously he can't play college till the rule is amended)? The guaranteed pay on entry level contracts is very low for the NHL. At what point would it make sense for a guy to stay in college, and then pick his team? There are players earning millions in NIL deals. Obviously not in college hockey, but I wonder what a massive superstar like Bedard could get in NIL deals.
 
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