Cotton Eye Joe
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- Oct 8, 2023
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2023 line combinations
- Thread starter kylbaz
- Start date
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Perfetti Scheif Volare
Nino Names Ehlers
KC Monahan Toffoli
Iafallo Lowry Apples
Nino Names Ehlers
KC Monahan Toffoli
Iafallo Lowry Apples
Buffdog
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- Feb 13, 2019
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Yeah, he's gotten shit results with this team this year. He sucks, what the f*** does he know
JetsFan815
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Not the be all and end all, but I keep struggling to explain away such a huge discrepency
kylbaz
Winnipeg <3
Buffdog
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They have it, and a lot more that you don't have
It’s such a small sample that it’s almost meaningless.
Before Vilardi got injured at the beginning of the year they ran about 30 mins together at >80% xG%, scored 3 goals and only gave up 5 shots against.
After Vilardi came back from his knee injury, they had a really bad stretch of about 100 mins. Vilardi hadnt played in months and the team was dealing with the flu.
I don’t think it’s as stupid as people seem to think to try to get them back to how they played at the beginning of the year.
Buffdog
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I think it's also lost on people that the ehlers - schief - vilardi is also a relatively small sample size of only 166 minutes over just 15 games.
Those games coincided with when the team was firing on all cylinders. I realize how easy it would be to get caught up in a correlation/causation issue there. We're the Jets succeeding because of that line? It's possible, but it's also possible that it was a side effect of the team playing well as a whole. More likely, it was a bit of both
I need a BTS Amazon series on the Jets just to learn the true reason why Ehlers and Connor aren’t switched.
Mind bottling.
Mind bottling.
JetsFan815
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This might straight up cost the Jets a shot at a deep run and the opportunity to re-sign Ehlers this summer. All this Perfetti, Appleton, Schmidt, Miller stuff is marginal but this might literally be the difference between contending in the playoffs and a quick 1st round exit.
I get some of this. It would be nice to have found out if ESV could have performed like an elite line over a longer period of time, as you said it's not a huge sample, only 15 games.
That's half of it. The other half is what we do know about Connor and Scheifele together over several years. At least CSV has still been 50/50 for goals even if they haven't been able to carry the play.
I'm sure there is some rhyme and reason behind it. Not sure how results driven that is, and I'll never know for sure. I just hope it doesn't come back to haunt us.
Buffdog
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I don't think I've ever seen someone so sure that they're right about something without even knowing what information they don't have access to that might explain why they're wrong
Why don't you take a second and "Steel Man" your agument?
Buffdog
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Not sure anyone caught this a few weeks ago. Bones is 100% aware of how strong ehlers -schief - vilardi is analytically. He's open to going back to it. But it sounds like he's trying to find a forward group configuration that provides more scoring throughout. I won't beat my chest to say "I was right", but this is what I've been saying all along
I won't be surprised to see the three of them back together at some point if nothing else works, or nothing else works as well as them on the top line and a drop-off to the second line. With vilardi back, hopefully we'll see some tinkering so that the top 6 talent is maximized over both lines
winnipegsun.com
I won't be surprised to see the three of them back together at some point if nothing else works, or nothing else works as well as them on the top line and a drop-off to the second line. With vilardi back, hopefully we'll see some tinkering so that the top 6 talent is maximized over both lines
Jets' Bowness answers fans' most-asked question
Why doesn't Rick Bowness go back to the top line that worked?
winnipegsun.com
ESV has played more time together than CSV. at this point given the Jets recent woes id say get your best 5v5 combo together that gives the best chance to out-score the opposition.
the team has been struggling to score goals. why not try their most prolific goal-scoring top line they've had this season that also seems to give up the least? CSV looked like it had some promise at the beginning of the year.... that was like half a year ago now.
ehlers and scheifele seem to work & score at a high rate together.... what if maybe just maybe connor-monahan is some hidden gem of a duo or actually has connor in the + at 5v5 (like he was w/ PLD). although i don't love Toffoli on RW with those 2, id actually like to see Names there and build something a bit similar to Connor-PLD-Svechnikov which was a v good line in 21-22. however at this point doubt there will be any multi-part movements.
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Board Bard
Dane-O-Mite
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So you're saying you're just as obtuse as Bowness? I'm not sure anyone ever doubted it. Seems a funny thing to brag about.
Buffdog
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Reading isn't your thing
I haven't once in this entire shitshow conversation said what I think the optimal lines would be, because I give zero f***s about who plays with who. I'll watch and enjoy the Jets regardless
BUT I have given possible reasons as to why Bones might be doing what he's doing. Again, I've never agreed or disagreed with his approach. I've just tried to add insight for posters who can't seem to grasp his train of thought
scelaton
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That Wpg Sun article is 7 weeks old and just shows that Bones is aware of the analytics and hasn't meaningfully acted on them. Nothing new here, folks.
There is also nothing in the article to suggests they have proprietary analytics that contradict what is publicly available. This is not the Manhattan Project and the info has been analyzed and interpreted at length by reputable people, who are impartial.
Much more likely is that Bones is still not persuaded by the numbers to make the top 6 changes (not just Ehlers) that have worked in the past.
Old dogs...
This is not about chest thumping or needing to be right as much as the consequences of being wrong. If the Jets don't respond to the information in front of them and flame out over the next month or so, it could affect UFA players' and fans' decisions beyond this season. All of this has been alluded to above and elsewhere, so I won't rehash it here.
There is also nothing in the article to suggests they have proprietary analytics that contradict what is publicly available. This is not the Manhattan Project and the info has been analyzed and interpreted at length by reputable people, who are impartial.
Much more likely is that Bones is still not persuaded by the numbers to make the top 6 changes (not just Ehlers) that have worked in the past.
Old dogs...
This is not about chest thumping or needing to be right as much as the consequences of being wrong. If the Jets don't respond to the information in front of them and flame out over the next month or so, it could affect UFA players' and fans' decisions beyond this season. All of this has been alluded to above and elsewhere, so I won't rehash it here.
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There is nothing in the article that suggests the Jets have proprietary analytics, but it is a Winnipeg Sun article and they aren't exactly known for in-depth reporting. The evidence however is that the Jets do in fact have proprietary analytics separate from what is available to the public, as they have 3 full time positions in Analytics positions, which would suggest they do more than copy and paste from Natural Stats Trick.
NHL Analytics | Behind the Benches
Behind the Benches: A public database on what hockey coaches do and for how long they've been doing it. NHL | AHL | CWHL | NWHL | NCAA
Perfetti Scheif Volare
Nino Names Ehlers
KC Monahan Tofolli
Iafallo Lowry Apples
That is 3 solid O lines and Iafallo replacing Nino on Lowry's line.
Nino Names Ehlers
KC Monahan Tofolli
Iafallo Lowry Apples
That is 3 solid O lines and Iafallo replacing Nino on Lowry's line.
Buffdog
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So... just to be clear..
People are wondering why Bones has the lines the way he does. He's asked that EXACT question and answers ON THE RECORD
But you, for some reason, decide not to take his words at face value
And I'M obtuse? Lol
Cognitive dissonance in its literal sense right here
scelaton
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You may have misread my post. I know all too well they have their own analytics people (one of my son's buddies did that job for a while). What I said is there is nothing in my reading of the article to suggest that their analytics is saying something different from publicly available sources on the utilization issues we've talked to death.There is nothing in the article that suggests the Jets have proprietary analytics, but it is a Winnipeg Sun article and they aren't exactly known for in-depth reporting. The evidence however is that the Jets do in fact have proprietary analytics separate from what is available to the public, as they have 3 full time positions in Analytics positions, which would suggest they do more than copy and paste from Natural Stats Trick.
NHL Analytics | Behind the Benches
Behind the Benches: A public database on what hockey coaches do and for how long they've been doing it. NHL | AHL | CWHL | NWHL | NCAAbehindthebenches.com
In any case, there really is little new to be said about this, so I'll see my way out of the thread.
Cheers.
When it comes to the lines stuff... if what you are interpreting is true, he wants to balance out scoring in the lineup and that leads to Connor and Scheif and Ehlers 2nd line? That's perfectly good reasoning.
Except what he is doing in aim of that goal does not appear to actually be the best way to accomplish what he wants to accomplish. Not based off how the lines have performed to date anyway.
I'm hoping it turns out I'm wrong here, my head and my heart see this two different ways (it's usually my head posting on here now compared to the past)
