2023 line combinations

[Buffdog]

When it comes to the lines stuff... if what you are interpreting is true, he wants to balance out scoring in the lineup and that leads to Connor and Scheif and Ehlers 2nd line? That's perfectly good reasoning.

Except what he is doing in aim of that goal does not appear to actually be the best way to accomplish what he wants to accomplish. Not based off how the lines have performed to date anyway.

I'm hoping it turns out I'm wrong here, my head and my heart see this two different ways (it's usually my head posting on here now compared to the past)

My line of thought goes all the way back to PoMo talking about limiting Ehlers minutes and creating soft match ups for him

People will read that and think that PoMo was denigrating Ehlers, but I think the opposite. I think that the org sees him as a unique talent that can destroy other teams 3rd and 4th lines if the match schief and Lowry against the other teams top lines

 

[BoneDocUK]

My line of thought goes all the way back to PoMo talking about limiting Ehlers minutes and creating soft match ups for him

People will read that and think that PoMo was denigrating Ehlers, but I think the opposite. I think that the org sees him as a unique talent that can destroy other teams 3rd and 4th lines if the match schief and Lowry against the other teams top lines

Don't disagree, and perhaps they are aiming for that by now building a line around him that seems to be performing well. I do think that he may be baffling for an older generation of coaches / coaching mindsets that focuses on stable positioning and roles over fluidity of movement and assignments. FWIW, similar discussions happened in footy for years beginning in the 90s. Hockey's catching up.

That being said, if GV's return can't stabilize and push the top line forward, then swapping Eels and KFC seems like the natural move.

And if we have to see a digger up there on L1, it should IMO be Nino over Al -- yeah, 3rd Line Unity, but Nino has the smarts and hands to at least nearly finish on the dozens of chances 55 can generate for anyone on that wing.

 

[kylbaz]

They have it, and a lot more that you don't have

*How do we get management to listen to this stuff.

 

[Buffdog]

*How do we get management to listen to this stuff.

I think that some people think that management will listen by polluting every goddamn thread on an anonymous online hockey forum every goddamn day with that stuff

 

[Keystone]

Ehlers Schiefele Vilardi
Connor. Monohan. Appleton
Nino. Lowry Toffoli
Barron. Namestikov. Iaffalo

I might try something like this and although I’m not a huge Apples fan, I prefer his pace and ability to come back defensively on KC line. And Toffoli adds more finish to the 3 rd line.
I also think it doesn’t matter what lines they run out up front, if Pionk and Dillion don’t get there sh!t together and play closer to how they did early in the year.
And Larry Bro needs to get 3-4 starts in the rest of season.

 

[DRW204]

What are thoughts on Connor-Monahan-Names, would this be reminiscent of Connor-PLD-Svech from 21-22? Or perhaps Perfetti even, would require one of Barron or Iafallo to sit.

That leaves likely Toffoli on the 3rd line. Nino-Lowry-Toffoli? Idk I have not always loved Lowry playing with players with a top 6 skill set where he needs to be creative offensively.

 

[sipowicz]

Ehlers Schiefele Vilardi
Connor. Monohan. Appleton
Nino. Lowry Toffoli
Barron. Namestikov. Iaffalo

I might try something like this and although I’m not a huge Apples fan, I prefer his pace and ability to come back defensively on KC line. And Toffoli adds more finish to the 3 rd line.
I also think it doesn’t matter what lines they run out up front, if Pionk and Dillion don’t get there sh!t together and play closer to how they did early in the year.
And Larry Bro needs to get 3-4 starts in the rest of season.

On what planet is AHL Apples a top 6?

 

[Flair Hay]

I think that some people think that management will listen by polluting every goddamn thread on an anonymous online hockey forum every goddamn day with that stuff

Obviously management isn't picking up tips from the inmates in the asylum, haha.

As the top line continues to struggle and the team is losing games, it's not a good climate for everyone to shrug their shoulders and assume our coach has got it handled.

Still time to go to turn it around.

 

[Flair Hay]

What are thoughts on Connor-Monahan-Names, would this be reminiscent of Connor-PLD-Svech from 21-22? Or perhaps Perfetti even, would require one of Barron or Iafallo to sit.

That leaves likely Toffoli on the 3rd line. Nino-Lowry-Toffoli? Idk I have not always loved Lowry playing with players with a top 6 skill set where he needs to be creative offensively.

Any line with Namestnikov or Iafallo will likely be solid, neutral line that won't overwhelm teams but won't give up a ton either.

More of a description for what we want in our bottom six, not our top six.

I honestly think making the one obvious swap is all that is needed and we can tinker or swap back based off what does and doesn't work from there.

ESV
CMT
NLA
BNI

Then the mob can move on and fully commit to Pionk

 

[BoneDocUK]

Any line with Namestnikov or Iafallo will likely be solid, neutral line that won't overwhelm teams but won't give up a ton either.

More of a description for what we want in our bottom six, not our top six.

I honestly think making the one obvious swap is all that is needed and we can tinker or swap back based off what does and doesn't work from there.

ESV
CMT
NLA
BNI

Then the mob can move on and fully commit to Pionk

Looks good to me.

But then anything that isn't what we've been running and how we've been running it looks good to me.

Especially on the back end. WTH is going on with MIA Miller and MVP Samberg's 4 games in the PB?

Why not rest JMo for a few games so he's fresh for the playoffs?

I am genuinely baffled by what is happening with the D right now.

 

[Heldig]

Any line with Namestnikov or Iafallo will likely be solid, neutral line that won't overwhelm teams but won't give up a ton either.

More of a description for what we want in our bottom six, not our top six.

I honestly think making the one obvious swap is all that is needed and we can tinker or swap back based off what does and doesn't work from there.

ESV
CMT
NLA
BNI

Then the mob can move on and fully commit to Pionk

So no Perfetti?

And that second line is allergic to defense.

 

[Buffdog]

So no Perfetti?

And that second line is allergic to defense.

There's the rub

Swapping Connor and ehlers won't make the top line good enough to beat the mcdavids, Mackinnon and Eichals of the world, and you're also turning your second line from one that could be dominant vs soft matchups into one that can't get the puck out of their own end

 

[MardyBum]

What are thoughts on Connor-Monahan-Names, would this be reminiscent of Connor-PLD-Svech from 21-22? Or perhaps Perfetti even, would require one of Barron or Iafallo to sit.

That leaves likely Toffoli on the 3rd line. Nino-Lowry-Toffoli? Idk I have not always loved Lowry playing with players with a top 6 skill set where he needs to be creative offensively.

What are the thoughs of Connor Namestnikov Toffoli and Barron Monahan Iafallo . Realize Monahan is what he was advertised as, give him PP time and shelter the ever loving jesus out of him .

In all seriousness I like that line. Who cares who plays 4C. Monahan needs help to drive play in either end, he's not so much a driver as a connector. He can make some plays but he's rarely the catalyst. Connor in the Ozone, Names in the Dzone.

Lowrys line has played great but with their ice time youd love a bit more offense while keeping the great play

 

[scelaton]

What are thoughts on Connor-Monahan-Names, would this be reminiscent of Connor-PLD-Svech from 21-22? Or perhaps Perfetti even, would require one of Barron or Iafallo to sit.

That leaves likely Toffoli on the 3rd line. Nino-Lowry-Toffoli? Idk I have not always loved Lowry playing with players with a top 6 skill set where he needs to be creative offensively.

It is certainly worth a try, since the status quo isn't working. So, top six is:
Ehlers--Scheif--Valardi
Connor--Monahan--Names

Now let's really shake it up, with the assumption that the bottom 2 lines get equal time on average, but situational deployment depends on home vs away, the opposition, the score etc

Nino--Perfetti--Tofolli
Barron--Lowry--Apples/Iafallo

I just think there needs to be a top-9 with offensive potential and that in the remaining games we need to give Perfetti a chance with wingers who have skill and size (Nino) and finishing ability (TT). There is almost nothing more to lose by remaining stagnant.

Lowry's line plays more when we need their particular skill set, Perfetti's when we need offensive potential.

 

[Slimy Sculpin]

It is certainly worth a try, since the status quo isn't working. So, top six is:
Ehlers--Scheif--Valardi
Connor--Monahan--Names

Now let's really shake it up, with the assumption that the bottom 2 lines get equal time on average, but situational deployment depends on home vs away, the opposition, the score etc

Nino--Perfetti--Tofolli
Barron--Lowry--Apples/Iafallo

I just think there needs to be a top-9 with offensive potential and that in the remaining games we need to give Perfetti a chance with wingers who have skill and size (Nino) and finishing ability (TT). There is almost nothing more to lose by remaining stagnant.

Lowry's line plays more when we need their particular skill set, Perfetti's when we need offensive potential.

Good suggestions as are a few others from assorted posters. However, and it's a big however, has Bowness in the past or with the Jets been open to making and sticking with minor "adjustments " let alone more substantial ones? For the third yesterday he did play SVE with some success but when questioned by the local media mob on whether they'd stay together, replied...."Well, we lost the game. We were just trying to generate a little bit more offence." Kinda sounds like an "old dog who can't be taught new tricks".

 

[Flair Hay]

There's the rub

Swapping Connor and ehlers won't make the top line good enough to beat the mcdavids, Mackinnon and Eichals of the world, and you're also turning your second line from one that could be dominant vs soft matchups into one that can't get the puck out of their own end

What the swap could do is give them a measurably better chance to break even with the elite lines that they do not have currently.

It will also give them a measurably better chance to outscore 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th lines they face against any opponent.

Ehlers has been on the 2nd (3rd?) line 75% of this year and most of previous seasons. He has never been as dominant in that role as with Scheifele.

The line that can't get the puck out of its own end is Connor and Scheifele and it's our 1st line.

Fixing that should be the priority, not the 3rd line that is being sheltered. It's the biggest problem we have and it's a known problem, not an unknown problem we could proactively work around.

 

[Buffdog]

What the swap could do is give them a measurably better chance to break even with the elite lines that they do not have currently.

It will also give them a measurably better chance to outscore 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th lines they face against any opponent.

Ehlers has been on the 2nd (3rd?) line 75% of this year and most of previous seasons. He has never been as dominant in that role as with Scheifele.

The line that can't get the puck out of its own end is Connor and Scheifele and it's our 1st line.

Fixing that should be the priority, not the 3rd line that is being sheltered. It's the biggest problem we have and it's a known problem, not an unknown problem we could proactively work around.

I would argue that for whatever reason, this is the fundamental disagreement between the org/coaching staff and fans

They see things differently, and have going all the way back to PoMo. Who knows whether it's the coach(es) or management but this seems to be their plan eith the forwards:

Line 1: xxx Schief xxx - match other trams top
lines on the road, 2nd line at home

Line 2: Ehlers xxx xxx - soft matchups vs other teams bottom 6

Line 3: xxx Lowry xxx - match up other teams top lines at home, 2nd line on the road

Line 4: xxx xxx xxx - limited minutes, sheltered vs other teams bottom 6 - ideally hold their own

Why has it been this way? Who knows, but I find it hard to believe that they've stuck with this for years for no good reason. As has been noted, their analytics are above and beyond what we have access to. People seem to settle on general incompetence, but I find that an awfully arrogant argument from casual fans

 

[Flair Hay]

I would argue that for whatever reason, this is the fundamental disagreement between the org/coaching staff and fans

They see things differently, and have going all the way back to PoMo. Who knows whether it's the coach(es) or management but this seems to be their plan eith the forwards:

Line 1: xxx Schief xxx - match other trams top
lines on the road, 2nd line at home

Line 2: Ehlers xxx xxx - soft matchups vs other teams bottom 6

Line 3: xxx Lowry xxx - match up other teams top lines at home, 2nd line on the road

Line 4: xxx xxx xxx - limited minutes, sheltered vs other teams bottom 6 - ideally hold their own

Why has it been this way? Who knows, but I find it hard to believe that they've stuck with this for years for no good reason. As has been noted, their analytics are above and beyond what we have access to. People seem to settle on general incompetence, but I find that an awfully arrogant argument from casual fans

They may have access to analytics that are more accurate than us. That doesn't mean they are using them systematically to problem solve lineup combinations.

From my experience, solving problems is typically difficult because of human factors and not because they are too complex or complicated to solve.

I would be extremely surprised if there is analytical data out there that contradicts the high level but pretty strong data most fans are going off in this case. To me, the human factor is a lot more likely. Everyone has bias though and I include myself in that.

 

[Slimy Sculpin]

I would argue that for whatever reason, this is the fundamental disagreement between the org/coaching staff and fans

They see things differently, and have going all the way back to PoMo. Who knows whether it's the coach(es) or management but this seems to be their plan eith the forwards:

Line 1: xxx Schief xxx - match other trams top
lines on the road, 2nd line at home

Line 2: Ehlers xxx xxx - soft matchups vs other teams bottom 6

Line 3: xxx Lowry xxx - match up other teams top lines at home, 2nd line on the road

Line 4: xxx xxx xxx - limited minutes, sheltered vs other teams bottom 6 - ideally hold their own

Why has it been this way? Who knows, but I find it hard to believe that they've stuck with this for years for no good reason. As has been noted, their analytics are above and beyond what we have access to. People seem to settle on general incompetence, but I find that an awfully arrogant argument from casual fans

I write this with due respect. I worked at my profession for >40 years. Based on my annual work appraisals, I was at least competent. However, over those 40+ years, I had come across more than a few less than competent colleagues. I'd argue that like mine, in most professions one would come across incompetent people. NHL coaches/managers would be no different. Is Coach Bowness incompetent, probably not but he does seem set in his ways. Is Coach Lauer incompetent? Based on his (lack of)success with special teams over the years on several teams, a case could be made.

As for "awfully arrogant argument(s)", that seems a bit harsh. We're all fans here, some casual, some with hockey experience of all sorts of levels. We're here discussing our favorite team warts and all.

 

[WolfHouse]

Here's a fun stat.... the Jets are 19-5-3 with AJF in the lineup

Maybe our depth was actually fine when we had AJF-Gus/Toni-Barron playing 8-10 mins a night a wreaking havoc

There's been so much line tinkering since then that we have lost any identity - playing a less talented 'energy line' really was key to Bones success - you look back now and MAYBE the fourth line creating chaos actually made matchups easier for our 1st line...

If there were no other politics/personalities involved - our best lineup is likely
ESV
Nino-Names-Toffoli
Lowry-Monahan-Apples
AJF-Gus-Barron

Jomo-DM
Dillon-Samberg
Stanley-Schmidt

At this point, what does the team have to lose by benching Pionk and Connor?

PK
Barron-Lowry
AJF-Names
Monahan-Apples


The Jets PK does not have the speed out there to wreak havoc - Lowry/Iafallo are just not fast enough to pressure anyone

 

[Slimy Sculpin]

Here's a fun stat.... the Jets are 19-5-3 with AJF in the lineup

Maybe our depth was actually fine when we had AJF-Gus/Toni-Barron playing 8-10 mins a night a wreaking havoc

There's been so much line tinkering since then that we have lost any identity - playing a less talented 'energy line' really was key to Bones success - you look back now and MAYBE the fourth line creating chaos actually made matchups easier for our 1st line...

If there were no other politics/personalities involved - our best lineup is likely
ESV
Nino-Names-Toffoli
Lowry-Monahan-Apples
AJF-Gus-Barron

Jomo-DM
Dillon-Samberg
Stanley-Schmidt

At this point, what does the team have to lose by benching Pionk and Connor?

PK
Barron-Lowry
AJF-Names
Monahan-Apples


The Jets PK does not have the speed out there to wreak havoc - Lowry/Iafallo are just not fast enough to pressure anyone

Lately, our PK does seem to play a tighter box/diamond than most teams. There appears to be less "reaching out" and challenging the opposition's PP so the position has more time to react , move anout and make a pass or shoot. You maybe correct and more ideal players for the PK are not being used.

 

[WolfHouse]

My line of thought goes all the way back to PoMo talking about limiting Ehlers minutes and creating soft match ups for him

People will read that and think that PoMo was denigrating Ehlers, but I think the opposite. I think that the org sees him as a unique talent that can destroy other teams 3rd and 4th lines if the match schief and Lowry against the other teams top lines

Aside from the time he spent on the third line with Lowry... and the fourth line with Thorburn...

Maybe Connor would have benefited from the same treatment - Ehlers sure seems to read the game well

 

[jetsfan15]

They may have access to analytics that are more accurate than us. That doesn't mean they are using them systematically to problem solve lineup combinations.

From my experience, solving problems is typically difficult because of human factors and not because they are too complex or complicated to solve.

I would be extremely surprised if there is analytical data out there that contradicts the high level but pretty strong data most fans are going off in this case. To me, the human factor is a lot more likely. Everyone has bias though and I include myself in that.

I have wondered (out of curiosity) which teams have bigger analytical departments and does it correlate with more successful teams. And do some teams not have a dedicated analytics department? (It would seem like a massive and self-inflicted disadvantage for an NHL team not to have one though, so I doubt this is the case for any team). I should google it to see.

 

[10Ducky10]

My opinion.
Lowry, Iafallo, Perfetti, Apples, Nino, Gus and Names are all strong defensively.
Scheif, Volare, Ehlers, are all adequate defensively.
KFC, Tof, Monahan are all poor defensively.
Barron is in between good and adequate.

Play the poor ones with at least one that is strong defensively.

Nino with KC and Names?
Perfetti with Tof and Scheif?
Monahan with Ehlers and Iafallo?
That leaves Lowry with Apples and Barron and Gus sits.

Perfetti Scheif Tof
Iafallo Monahan Ehlers
KC Names Nino
Barron Lowry Apples

 

[MardyBum]

I have wondered (out of curiosity) which teams have bigger analytical departments and does it correlate with more successful teams. And do some teams not have a dedicated analytics department? (It would seem like a massive and self-inflicted disadvantage for an NHL team not to have one though, so I doubt this is the case for any team). I should google it to see.

There were regular yearly updated posts on twitter with a breakdown of publicly known analytics dept members by team, can't remember by who though. Not sure if @garret9 is still around these parts but he'd likely remember.