2023 Free Agency/UFA Targets

[NickH8]

I find it a little odd how the same people that think Larkin would magically be a 100 point guy with better Wingers also simultaneously don't want DeBrincat because they think he needs a guy like that to produce

so then.....what's the problem?

We talk about how we need scoring and then whenever a scorer is available everyone is poking holes in them. A scorer with no flaws simply does not become available. It's a pay to win league, sometimes you have to overpay a little bit. And the cap is going to increase anyway. DeBrincat should absolutely be a target.

 

[Henkka]

We are a bad team and you are worried about having too many overpaid good players.

That would be like a homeless person being worried when they get a house their garage won't be big enough for all their Ferraris.

Let's get some more good players first.

Yeah, let's get better vets from free agency (for free, no lost assets) to surround our own kids.

Good environment to grow and learn. Just like Yzerman did it at Tampa. Short deals for vets who will die away from the roster with a right timeline for the kid to take the torch.

That's the right model. Don't overpay for top players. Especially don't trade after them who are gonna be overpaid. Trade them away like JT Miller and keep the effective cap/asset management going.

 

[Frk It]

Yeah, let's get better vets from free agency to surround our own kids.

Good environment to grow and learn. Just like Yzerman did it at Tampa. Short deals for vets who will die away from the roster with a right timeline build for the kid to take the torch.

That's the right model.

What UFA's do you like this year? Do you think they could be impactful as adding DeBrincat?

 

[Henkka]

What UFA's do you like this year? Do you think they could be impactful as adding DeBrincat?

No. There's no single winger who could be better than him. But you need to plan long-term and avoid overpayments, which could destroy whole team structure.


All the damn formulas will show that Debrincat should get more money than Dylan Larkin. 9-10 milllions. And that's not based on the player level, that's based on inflated scoring thanks to playing most of his career with generational playmaker Patty Kane.

For sure he is not better player than Larkin. 7M Debrincat would be probably fine in our team structure. But as long as we don't know the salary ask, this is difficult situation.

Everthing depends of the ask for the next contract.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

I think Debrincat can make sense

Need to include a 1st(preferably Bostons 2024 1st), a roster player (fabbri) and either a 2nd this year or a guy like veleno/zadina or prospect biuim

No. There's no single winger who could be better than him. But you need to plan long-term and avoid overpayments, which could destroy whole team structure.


All the damn formulas will show that Debrincat should get more money than Dylan Larkin. 9-10 milllions. And that's not based on the player level, that's based on inflated scoring thanks to playing most of his career with generational playmaker Patty Kane.

For sure he is not better player than Larkin. 7M Debrincat would be probably fine. But as long as we don't know the salary ask, this is difficult situation.

Everthing depends of the ask for the next contract.

Our only prospect/young player at the moment who has earned a salary north of 7m is Seider.

I hope more do but for now that's not a concern

 

[norrisnick]

Our only prospect/young player at the moment who has earned a salary north of 7m is Seider.

I hope more do but for now that's not a concern

With Caufield's extension setting precedent for smaller RH Wingers scoring at a mid-50s pace during their ELC, RayRay is gonna be north of $7M as well.

 

[Frk It]

With Caufield's extension setting precedent for smaller RH Wingers scoring at a mid-50s pace during their ELC, RayRay is gonna be north of $7M as well.

One contract does not set a market.

Also it's not the 50 pt pace that is getting Caufield the money. It is the goal scoring and perceived goal scoring ability.

Caufield - .43 goals per game
Raymond - .26 goals per game

 

[Frk It]

No. There's no single winger who could be better than him. But you need to plan long-term and avoid overpayments, which could destroy whole team structure.


All the damn formulas will show that Debrincat should get more money than Dylan Larkin. 9-10 milllions. And that's not based on the player level, that's based on inflated scoring thanks to playing most of his career with generational playmaker Patty Kane.

For sure he is not better player than Larkin. 7M Debrincat would be probably fine in our team structure. But as long as we don't know the salary ask, this is difficult situation.

Everthing depends of the ask for the next contract.

It's just a little exhausting because people poke holes in UFA's too, they are all too old, or are they are stop gaps, or they are ____insert criticism here_____

I see some of your logic and where you are coming from.

You want to make smart acquisitions. But we also need to make sure we are actually improving the team when possible. That might involve overpaying for a player or making a bold type of move. But the drawback to not doing that is that you just stay bad.

 

[Gniwder]

One contract does not set a market.

Also it's not the 50 pt pace that is getting Caufield the money. It is the goal scoring and perceived goal scoring ability.

Caufield - .43 goals per game
Raymond - .26 goals per game

Fer sure, if Raymond asks for $7M/season he can sit out. For that kind of money, I'd rather go and get Bert back. (I don't want to do that either, but just saying....)

Caufield is a Tage Thompson type contract where they're betting on his future. Raymond sort of plateaued, can't drive the play by himself. We'll see if he can take the next step next season, or if he's gonna be a second line winger.... which would be a little disappointing, but still fills a need.

Remember when someone here said the Tage contract was dumb? LOL.

 

[norrisnick]

One contract does not set a market.

Also it's not the 50 pt pace that is getting Caufield the money. It is the goal scoring and perceived goal scoring ability.

Caufield - .43 goals per game
Raymond - .26 goals per game

It just takes one to start a trend. But even then Keller, Hischier, Suzuki, Norris, etc... all signed term north of $7M with similar or even lower production than Raymond.

It's just a little exhausting because people poke holes in UFA's too, they are all too old, or are they are stop gaps, or they are ____insert criticism here_____

I see some of your logic and where you are coming from.

You want to make smart acquisitions. But we also need to make sure we are actually improving the team when possible. That might involve overpaying for a player or making a bold type of move. But the drawback to not doing that is that you just stay bad.

The problem with DeBrincat is it's both.

It's trading big assets for someone AND a likely overpay since he's right there at UFA.

Trade for a guy with term or pay big to someone worth it on the market. Market is shitty this year.

This is quite likely why Yzerman stressed that offensive improvement this coming season may need to come from within.

 

[jkutswings]

This is quite likely why Yzerman stressed that offensive improvement this coming season may need to come from within.

Raymond could go PPG this season and Detroit still needs another first line caliber forward.

I think it's realistic to expect some improvement from within. I think it's unrealistic to expect ALL the improvement to come from within.

 

[norrisnick]

Raymond could go PPG this season and Detroit still needs another first line caliber forward.

I think it's realistic to expect some improvement from within. I think it's unrealistic to expect ALL the improvement to come from within.

To compete? Absolutely.

Are we competing this coming season? No.

Is there a possibility of a far better trade/free agent crop during or after this coming season? Undoubtedly.

 

[Henkka]

With Caufield's extension setting precedent for smaller RH Wingers scoring at a mid-50s pace during their ELC, RayRay is gonna be north of $7M as well.

Yzerman will offer the bridge. Raymond hasn't shown anything yet to commit long-term.

Seider is our only sure bet to go with 8 years.

 

[norrisnick]

Yzerman will offer the bridge. Raymond hasn't shown anything yet to commit long-term.

And RayRay turns down the bridge. Ray has shown as much as the many other 20-22yo kids that have signed term at $7M+ the last few years.

 

[Henkka]

And RayRay turns down the bridge. Ray has shown as much as the many other 20-22yo kids that have signed term at $7M+ the last few years.

He can go to Sweden for a season and then take the bridge and lose some money.

Yzerman will offer only short ot shorter deals. I can take a bet about it.

Yzerman is not a copy-cat guy which will follow what others at NHL are doing. He has preferred short-term deals in the past and has talked about it, how he sees it as a better way.

 

[norrisnick]

He can go to Sweden for a season and then take the bridge and lose some money.

Yzerman will offer only short ot shorter deals. I can take a bet about it.

Yzerman is not a copy-cat guy which will follow what others at NHL are doing. He has preferred short-term deals in the past and has talked about it, how he sees it as a better way.

Banishing a guy to Sweden is a real solid team building move. Sure the PA would love it.

Nothing is more meaningless than forum wagers.

Yzerman may not be a copy-cat. Agents are. Yzerman is not the only party in a contract negotiation. You'd think you'd have picked up on that when he got forced from sub $8M to $8.7M by Larkin's camp.

 

[jkutswings]

To compete? Absolutely.

Are we competing this coming season? No.

Is there a possibility of a far better trade/free agent crop during or after this coming season? Undoubtedly.

I don't mean this against you specifically, but if there's one word I would ban from this forum it's the word 'compete'. Mostly because no two people mean the same thing by it, and it leads to countless arguments of misunderstanding and talking past one another.

I expect Detroit to have an aggressive summer that still fits with their long term plans and make the playoffs this coming season.

It's a tall ask, but one that I think Yzerman is of the same mindset about. I think he's ready to turn the page and be less patient in order to kick things up a notch or two, without selling the farm for anything short of a tremendous boost that's also a great fit.

 

[K1900L]

Yep. And Debrincat scoring has been way higher when playing with Patrick Kane.

Debrincat has played most minutes with Patty Kane on last 3 seasons, of ALL NHL players. And he has been 40-goal scorer with Kane.

But he has been under 30 goal scorer without Kane. You don't pay premium 9-10 million deals for that.

Debrincat is a 6M guy.

DeBrincat was playing with a rookie 3rd line center most of this year (Pinto). Norris was injured and I don't remember any game where he was given a chance to play with Stützle from start to finish.

Any center in Detroit will be a big update to this, let it be Larkin or Kasper or someone else who could be signed in the future. He will be good for 35+ goals at least.
Also, DeBrincat is someone who brings a lot to the table: he is fast, has great hands, can hold a puck in the corner, can rush a puck from zone to zone and he can make plays happen by himself while not shying away from fights. He is gritty and feisty. Detroit is lacking these skills, especially with Bertuzzi gone.

If you get a chance to sign him without hurting yourself too much, you do so. DeBrincat has the potential to be a fan favorite within few games, he is a great fit to the Detroit type of hockey. He is basically a more skilled Bertuzzi without the injury-proneness and the off-the-ice-ineptitude.

 

[norrisnick]

I don't mean this against you specifically, but if there's one word I would ban from this forum it's the word 'compete'. Mostly because no two people mean the same thing by it, and it leads to countless arguments of misunderstanding and talking past one another.

I expect Detroit to have an aggressive summer that still fits with their long term plans and make the playoffs this coming season.

It's a tall ask, but one that I think Yzerman is of the same mindset about. I think he's ready to turn the page and be less patient in order to kick things up a notch or two, without selling the farm for anything short of a tremendous boost that's also a great fit.

What's Kasper's best attribute? Compete.

Is contend any better? The goal, ultimately, is to build a Cup winning/competitive team. That ultimate goal supercedes any want for incremental improvement this coming season. If trading for and backing up the Brinks truck for DeBrincat doesn't improve our shot to ultimately compete for the Cup, that's not the right move even if would make us a "better" team this coming year.

Back to the post that I quoted, even if Raymond goes PP we'd need another 1st line player. Even if we acquire/sign DeBrincat we'd still need another 1st line player. If Raymond and DeBrincat are our two best wingers we aren't winning anything.

EDIT - to address the final point about thinking Yzerman is ready to turn the page and be less patient? Re-watch his season ending presser. If anything he's stressing the opposite. Now is not the time to overreact.

 

[ricky0034]

i'm mostly kidding because he's about to be 35 and will miss the start of the year with injury recovery and probably wouldn't want to come here anyways

but I just want to point out that Patrick Kane is a UFA this year because nobody else has yet

 

[norrisnick]

i'm mostly kidding because he's about to be 35 and will miss the start of the year with injury recovery and probably wouldn't want to come here anyways

but I just want to point out that Patrick Kane is a UFA this year because nobody else has yet

I'd pay DeBrincat and Kane a combined $8M/yr.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

DeBrincat was playing with a rookie 3rd line center most of this year (Pinto). Norris was injured and I don't remember any game where he was given a chance to play with Stützle from start to finish.

Any center in Detroit will be a big update to this, let it be Larkin or Kasper or someone else who could be signed in the future. He will be good for 35+ goals at least.
Also, DeBrincat is someone who brings a lot to the table: he is fast, has great hands, can hold a puck in the corner, can rush a puck from zone to zone and he can make plays happen by himself while not shying away from fights. He is gritty and feisty. Detroit is lacking these skills, especially with Bertuzzi gone.

If you get a chance to sign him without hurting yourself too much, you do so. DeBrincat has the potential to be a fan favorite within few games, he is a great fit to the Detroit type of hockey. He is basically a more skilled Bertuzzi without the injury-proneness and the off-the-ice-ineptitude.

He also played quite a bit with Claude Giroux and Drake Batherson with a ton of PP time on the top unit with Brady Tkachuk.

Alex Debrincat - Fantasy Hockey Game Logs, Advanced Stats and more - Frozen Tools

I'll say this; I'm for adding DeBrincat but the price has to be right both in terms of trade and contract value.

 

[norrisnick]

He also played quite a bit with Claude Giroux and Drake Batherson with a ton of PP time on the top unit with Brady Tkachuk.

Alex Debrincat - Fantasy Hockey Game Logs, Advanced Stats and more - Frozen Tools

I'll say this; I'm for adding DeBrincat but the price has to be right both in terms of trade and contract value.

Which is pretty much impossible.

Ottawa fell in a trap when they traded for DeBrincat. I don't want to knowingly step into that same trap.

This situation right here is why teams are locking up kids coming out of their ELCs. There is no way to win in acquiring DeBrincat. You lose futures for the right to overpay a guy looking forward to free agency.

 

[NickH8]

Which is pretty much impossible.

Ottawa fell in a trap when they traded for DeBrincat. I don't want to knowingly step into that same trap.

This situation right here is why teams are locking up kids coming out of their ELCs. There is no way to win in acquiring DeBrincat. You lose futures for the right to overpay a guy looking forward to free agency.

But you get the goal scorer we desperately need and aren't going to draft unless we blow it up and trade guys like Larkin.

 

[Snuggs]

Banishing a guy to Sweden is a real solid team building move. Sure the PA would love it.

Nothing is more meaningless than forum wagers.

Yzerman may not be a copy-cat. Agents are. Yzerman is not the only party in a contract negotiation. You'd think you'd have picked up on that when he got forced from sub $8M to $8.7M by Larkin's camp.

While he settled with Larkin he did trade off Bertuzzi/Hronek who might have been asking for certain types of money.

Till Raymond starts pushing near 30 goals...*which he can do*. I don't think he sniffs a 7mill average long-term. He'll need to top 30 goals. I'm chiming in but, I do mostly agree with you. Talking out both corners of my mouth now but... Raymond produces this year Wings will have to pay him, and not a bridge. Agents gonna make some noise like you suggested. If he has another sub 20 goal type year doesn't top 50 points... Then yeah, he'll get a 3-year type of prove it bridge-deal. (IMO)