2023 Free Agency/UFA Targets

[jkutswings]

Which is pretty much impossible.

Ottawa fell in a trap when they traded for DeBrincat. I don't want to knowingly step into that same trap.

This situation right here is why teams are locking up kids coming out of their ELCs. There is no way to win in acquiring DeBrincat. You lose futures for the right to overpay a guy looking forward to free agency.

On paper you're correct. But the reason you turn over that rock is because each player could be a unique situation.

Maybe he idolizes Yzerman, forces his way out of Ottawa for pennies, and would play here for less. Maybe Detroit's not even on his list and he's all about maximizing dollars. But you don't know unless you look into it.

 

[norrisnick]

But you get the goal scorer we desperately need and aren't going to draft unless we blow it up and trade guys like Larkin.

Is DeBrincat the goal scorer we desperately need?

Where do we go if our top line wingers are Raymond and DeBrincat?

 

[norrisnick]

On paper you're correct. But the reason you turn over that rock is because each player could be a unique situation.

Maybe he idolizes Yzerman, forces his way out of Ottawa for pennies, and would play here for less. Maybe Detroit's not even on his list and he's all about maximizing dollars. But you don't know unless you look into it.

If he's that eager, it's not turning over a rock it's answering the phone if/when they call, ala Hossa.

If he's willing to go $7Mx7, sure. But it doesn't truly address what this team needs up front which is another play driver. Larkin isn't enough.

 

[NickH8]

Is DeBrincat the goal scorer we desperately need?

Where do we go if our top line wingers are Raymond and DeBrincat?

Yes.

The dude scored 27 in an off year. Has hit 40 multiple times. We aren't in a position to be picky.

 

[norrisnick]

Yes.

The dude scored 27 in an off year. Has hit 40 multiple times. We aren't in a position to be picky.

Doubtful.

He scored 27 on the 2nd line playing behind a top line of Stutzle/Tkachuk and with them on PP1. The 40 were scored with Patrick Kane. The Wings don't have that kind of support for a tiny shooter.

If we aren't picky, we're f***ed.

Again, where do we go if our top wingers are 5'11" 176lb Raymond and 5'7" 178lb DeBrincat? You commit big money on DeBrincat and you start hemming yourself in. Can we construct a winner with a guy like DeBrincat eating $8M+ of the cap?

 

[Detroit Knights]

Is DeBrincat the goal scorer we desperately need?

Where do we go if our top line wingers are Raymond and DeBrincat?

I wouldn't put debrincat and raymond on the same line, so that's a start.

I'd put debrincat with larkin and a bigger forward like rasmussen or someone similar. Then put Raymond on second with copp/kasper (when ready) and kubalik.

having debrincat and raymond would make the line too small imo. I'm sure it could work, but with top line players in the league like drai/mcd, mathews, benn, etc. you should have at least one bigger guy to try and compensate a bit imo.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Doubtful.

He scored 27 on the 2nd line playing behind a top line of Stutzle/Tkachuk and with them on PP1. The 40 were scored with Patrick Kane. The Wings don't have that kind of support for a tiny shooter.

If we aren't picky, we're f***ed.

Again, where do we go if our top wingers are 5'11" 176lb Raymond and 5'7" 178lb DeBrincat? You commit big money on DeBrincat and you start hemming yourself in. Can we construct a winner with a guy like DeBrincat eating $8M+ of the cap?

DeBrincat at 8 years 7 million?

 

[norrisnick]

DeBrincat at 8 years 7 million?

It's a weird sort of situation where a player just might not be a great fit. We don't have the other players to complement both Ray and DeBrincat in our top 6. Not unless both Ras and Elmer decide now is the time to hulk out and become top line big boys.

 

[Bench]

Again, where do we go if our top wingers are 5'11" 176lb Raymond and 5'7" 178lb DeBrincat? You commit big money on DeBrincat and you start hemming yourself in. Can we construct a winner with a guy like DeBrincat eating $8M+ of the cap?

Is their height really that impactful for two forwards?

The top scorers for those incredible Tampa teams (Kucherov and Point) were under 6 feet tall. And then there's 5'9" Brad Marchand, of course, top 5 in points in the last 5 off-seasons.

I'm pretty indifferent to DeBrincat specifically at this point, other than he's an interesting bit of trade block news and from Michigan, but worrying about your forward size in the current NHL feels a bit dated. All things equal, yeah size is better, but skill wins out on size more often than not in this current landscape.

I mean, is Vegas sweating that their top winger Marchessault is only 5'9" right now?

Assuming the guy can produce, height is the last thing I'm worried about from a scoring winger.

It's a weird sort of situation where a player just might not be a great fit. We don't have the other players to complement both Ray and DeBrincat in our top 6. Not unless both Ras and Elmer decide now is the time to hulk out and become top line big boys.

It's a really young team. They aren't done adding pieces. Yzerman has a wealth of draft picks in the next two years, including 4 first rounders, that are going to change the landscape fairly significantly assuming it's not all busts.

 

[Detroit Knights]

DeBrincat at 8 years 7 million?

He will never be happy lmao. All norris wants (what it seems anyways) is for the team to be just so bad and take no chances on guys, or has a fairy tale belief of something that he just won't say.

It's amazing really. Everything from him seems like a sarcastic comment or it's negative to whoever posts it, but never actually comes up with logical ideas of possibilities. If he doesn't believe in that, that is totally fine, but never does he come up with an actual plan of what he would do, other than of course saying he hates X idea or Y idea.

Debrincat seems to be the only guy that we have a good possibility of getting, given the circumstances (I didn't see if we made his list of teams to be traded too), and yet that is still not good enough. Kane is a shell of who he is now and you cannot say the reason debrincat was on a 50 goal pace one year and 40's for all the rest just because of Kane. Debrincat has the ability to score without that help. And when it comes to passing, I think Larkin could find debrincat open from time to time.........................and Berggren

 

[K1900L]

He also played quite a bit with Claude Giroux and Drake Batherson with a ton of PP time on the top unit with Brady Tkachuk.

Alex Debrincat - Fantasy Hockey Game Logs, Advanced Stats and more - Frozen Tools

I'll say this; I'm for adding DeBrincat but the price has to be right both in terms of trade and contract value.

This is partially true, yes. Still, he spent 63.8% percent of the season with either Pinto, Brassard or Greig (meaning two rookies and a vet depth player) centering his line. He finished with 27 goals and I can't think of a scenario where he finishes with less than 35 with someone like Norris centering his line, let alone Stützle. And not to forget that his shooting percentage was terrible compared to his prior years: if you adjust the percentage to his average career shooting percentage we are talking about 41 goals, this year! In a year where he didn't really get any support from down the middle.

It is ridiculous to claim that he is a $6M player, like some people here seem to believe.

 

[Detroit Knights]

It's a really young team. They aren't done adding pieces. Yzerman has a wealth of draft picks in the next two years, including 4 first rounders, that are going to change the landscape fairly significantly assuming it's not all busts.

Rasmussen showed that he could be on the second line or first line after the injuries and playing wing, not center. When Rasmussen plays with a center like Larkin or Copp, he actually shines very well because he goes to the corners. And since he doesn't need the responsibility to be the center and just be the winger, it doesn't seem like he has to think as much.

So he goes into the corners, works on the puck, squirts it out to copp or larkin (from memory that's what I remember, and then they either pass to the third guy or take a shot. Before his injury, Ras was producing and making impact every time he was on the ice. I hope he brings it back next year

 

[norrisnick]

Is their height really that impactful for two forwards?

The top scorers for those incredible Tampa teams (Kucherov and Point) were under 6 feet tall. And then there's 5'9" Brad Marchand, of course, top 5 in points in the last 5 off-seasons.

I'm pretty indifferent to DeBrincat specifically at this point, other than he's an interesting bit of trade block news and from Michigan, but worrying about your forward size in the current NHL feels a bit dated. All things equal, yeah size is better, but skill wins out on size more often than not in this current landscape.

I mean, is Vegas sweating that their top winger Marchessault is only 5'9" right now?

Assuming the guy can produce, height is the last thing I'm worried about from a scoring winger.



It's a really young team. They aren't done adding pieces. Yzerman has a wealth of draft picks in the next two years, including 4 first rounders, that are going to change the landscape fairly significantly assuming it's not all busts.

When they're nowhere near as good as Point, Kucherov, or Marchand, yeah, size starts to factor in.

He might have slightly fewer points, but Stone is Vegas' top winger. Cap hit, captaincy, deployment and all that. I wouldn't mind DeBrincat at Marchessault's caphit though...

Exactly. Not done adding pieces. Or done updating caphits on some of the pieces we have in Mo, Ray, Ras, etc.... DeBrincat north of $8M starts to hinder that. Is a tiny shooter at top shelf cap hit the correct piece for this team? I don't think it is. Especially not when we have to pay Ottawa just for the privilege to offer said top shelf contract.

 

[Holden Caufield]

 

[Henkka]

He finished with 27 goals and I can't think of a scenario where he finishes with less than 35 with someone like Norris centering his line, let alone Stützle. And not to forget that his shooting percentage was terrible compared to his prior years: if you adjust the percentage to his average career shooting percentage we are talking about 41 goals, this year! In a year where he didn't really get any support from down the middle.

His shooting pecentage just a bit normalized to realistic level, after getting easy tap-ins from Patty Kane for majority of his career.

That's DeBrincat's real level, when generational playmaker is not carrying him.

 

[Frk It]

His shooting pecentage just a bit normalized to realistic level, after getting easy tap-ins from Patty Kane for majority of his career.

That's DeBrincat's real level, when generational playmaker is not carrying him.

The 2 things I think are getting lost with DeBrincat

1) He was an exceptional offensive player in Juniors.... it's not like he was a nobody who ended up with Patrick Kane and had no track record beforehand
2) The eye test. Watch him shoot the puck. He shoots the puck better than anyone on this team.

 

[Detroit Knights]

The 2 things I think are getting lost with DeBrincat

1) He was an exceptional offensive player in Juniors.... it's not like he was a nobody who ended up with Patrick Kane and had no track record beforehand
2) The eye test. Watch him shoot the puck. He shoots the puck better than anyone on this team.

This is exactly what I have been saying. Kane didn't make Debrincat, he just helped facilitate.

Who is to say that Debrincat didn't elevate Kane's play and points? It is possible.

 

[Henkka]

This is exactly what I have been saying. Kane didn't make Debrincat, he just helped facilitate.

Who is to say that Debrincat didn't elevate Kane's play and points? It is possible.

It goes both ways but THE point all the time in this dicsussion is his overpayment because of that favorable situation with Kane.

Don't pay assets for an overapay situation.

Wait until he is UFA and if he likes to play at Michigan with a hometown discount. Then Yzerman will be interested. That's how winning teams are built.

With bargain deals. Not paying the premium.

 

[norrisnick]

We need to be really f***ing careful with capspace this summer. Not factoring in anyone that isn't already on the team, we could very easily see a $20M jump in caphit in '24-'25 with just raises for Mo, Ray, Ras, Kubalik, and Bergie.

To illustrate. Take our current roster. Add a $8M forward, $5M defenseman, $3M goalie, and another $1M defenseman. Retain Veleno and Suter at a combined $4M, they can fight for how it gets split. That's just over $75M. Ton of room right?

Fast forward to next fall. Give the 5 mentioned above raises. Retain Perron with zero raise. $93M payroll.

 

[Gniwder]

The 2 things I think are getting lost with DeBrincat

1) He was an exceptional offensive player in Juniors.... it's not like he was a nobody who ended up with Patrick Kane and had no track record beforehand
2) The eye test. Watch him shoot the puck. He shoots the puck better than anyone on this team.

Do you think it's a move that Stevie would do? I don't, so it's moot. His contract is structured in a way that doesn't give Stevie leverage in contract negotiations, $9M QO. I think that's the biggest drawback, more so than his height.

I think he has to make a big move sooner or later, but I don't see it happening until after the lottery next season. I would not be surprised at all if next season is just another sucky season, though not a full on tank. Kub and Perron will get traded at the TDL unless they agree to an extension beforehand. WIngs finish basically in the same spot (5 - 10 from bottom).

 

[Detroit Knights]

It goes both ways but THE point all the time in this dicsussion is his overpayment because of that favorable situation with Kane.

Don't pay assets for an overapay situation.

Wait until he is UFA and if he likes to play at Michigan with a hometown discount. Then Yzerman will be interested. That's how winning teams are built.

With bargain deals. Not paying the premium.

what exactly have you seen from yzerman that says he would overpay to acquire debrincat? I don't see him overpaying at all, quite simply because he has never overpaid to get an asset in his GM career. He gets rid of players for more than what people expect.

Trading for Debrincat with bostons 1st next year and one of our seconds this year is not really an overpayment. He has already said he wants out and won't sign with ottawa. That lowers ottawa's leverage and their leverage is even lower because they do not have the real cap space to improve their team and keep him at his QO guarantee.

With all that being said, the trade is going to be minimal assets sent over. Yes, the actual 7 year contract price is the only thing to really worry about and I don't even see it as a problem with paying him 7x8 to be the scorer of the team. He has more scoring ability in him than our entire top 6, so I don't see why people are getting all butt hurt about it.

Doing the math, you can get debrincat at 7x8, sign seider to 8x9, sign raymond to a bridge deal asap before this year begins at 3x6. We could DO ALL OF THIS and still trade and sign for a player like Meier and pay him his 7x9 and never be in cap hell at all.

If you really want to see what that looks like I can break it down from cap friendly.

 

[Detroit Knights]

Do you think it's a move that Stevie would do? I don't, so it's moot. His contract is structured in a way that doesn't give Stevie leverage in contract negotiations, $9M QO. I think that's the biggest drawback, more so than his height.

I think he has to make a big move sooner or later, but I don't see it happening until after the lottery next season. I would not be surprised at all if next season is just another sucky season, though not a full on tank. Kub and Perron will get traded at the TDL unless they agree to an extension beforehand. WIngs finish basically in the same spot (5 - 10 from bottom).

A QO literally means nothing. It doesn't mean we have to sign him to a contract that starts at 9m.

Also, most players would rather sign a 7-8 year deal at a lower AAV than their high QO because if they get injured during a season where they sign a QO with no long-term contract, then they screw themselves harder than anything else. Because if they are coming back from injury, they are going to try even harder to do better and that can backfire in itself too.

 

[SantosHalper]

1) He was an exceptional offensive player in Juniors.... it's not like he was a nobody who ended up with Patrick Kane and had no track record beforehand

Speaking of which, in the juniors DeBrincat played with McDavid and Strome. Couple of quite dominant players in OHL and then DeBrincat got to play with Kane in the NHL. If we take all of these playmakers away, there would be far less hype around DeBrincat.

Red Wings doesn't have a playmaker like that and even if they had DeBrincat still demands way too much money. No point to mess up the cap structure for a couple extra goals.

 

[Bench]

These summer threads, man.

All I can say is you can tell who goes to a garage sale and offers $2 with a "take it or leave it" posture for the already underpriced $5 item.

 

[Gniwder]

A QO literally means nothing. It doesn't mean we have to sign him to a contract that starts at 9m.

Also, most players would rather sign a 7-8 year deal at a lower AAV than their high QO because if they get injured during a season where they sign a QO with no long-term contract, then they screw themselves harder than anything else. Because if they are coming back from injury, they are going to try even harder to do better and that can backfire in itself too.

Of course not, but DeBrincat isn't gonna be in a hurry to sign a long term contract for less than what he thinks his market value is. A lot of players want to test free agency. They're not gonna worry about getting injured in a one year time span. The notion of doing a trade & sign thinking you're gonna get a discount is PURE FANTASY, look at Tkachuk and Horvat. That's the reality.

Especially considering Ottawa already made that particular mistake last year, lol.