Prospect Info: 2023 Draft Thread (Yotes picking #6 & #12)

[The Feckless Puck]

Interesting you're the only one (so far) who wouldn't take that deal. Generally philosophy or you thick Fantilli is not a lock to become a 1C?

General philosophy, mostly (as I explained above). I'm very high on Fantilli and think he'll be an amazing NHL player when his game matures. But I keep coming back again and again to the idea that teams win championships, and I've posted before that a team full of near-stars and hard-working everymen/women (like the 6-15 range of the draft) will go farther than a team like the Oilers have been for the past few years, with the best player in the game and one of the top-five best behind him, surrounded by a sharp dropoff in skill and cohesion.

TL;DR I think we can make up in aggregate what Fantilli brings alone, so while I would dearly love to play with the shiny new toy, I think quantity at that level of the draft is better for us long-term.

What do you think it'd take?

Well, consider this - as much as we desire Fantilli, so do the rest of the NHL teams. We've already seen in the thread how people would gladly give up the players at 6 and 11 to get Fantilli, so you gotta figure what would entice us to give up Fantilli if the roles were reversed. Would you be content with 6 and 11 if it meant giving up Fantilli? Based on the thread, I would wager not - even if it were supplemented with other later picks. You'd be wanting another prime asset or two to go along with it.

 

[TheLegend]

l

100% but they wouldn’t.

Agree with this...

Nobody sitting in the top 8 spots is going to let that spot go.

 

[RemoAZ]

I think it is time for your afternoon nap old man!

RT's prick-ly-ness has nothing to do with age. Took me a long time and seeing him apologize to people dozens of times for being a jerk to realize that. That's just who he is. Now I just ignore him when he fires off one of those smart ass replies. Plus, he was reborn as the Kindler, Gentler RT or that's the rumor anyway.

 

[Schemp]

I think it is time for your afternoon nap old man!

I'm probably older than RT's dad, so thank you for the insult and wasting what little time I have left on this planet reading your nonsense...

 

[rt]

RT's prick-ly-ness has nothing to do with age. Took me a long time and seeing him apologize to people dozens of times for being a jerk to realize that. That's just who he is. Now I just ignore him when he fires off one of those smart ass replies. Plus, he was reborn as the Kindler, Gentler RT or that's the rumor anyway.

I’m at least 50% at fault at least 50% of the time.

But on this particular incident, I accept no blame. Haha.

I'm probably older than RT's dad, so thank you for the insult and wasting what little time I have left on this planet reading your nonsense...

My dad was born in 1950. He was in his mid 30s when I was born. I was in my mid 20s when he passed away.

 

[Schemp]

My dad was born in 1950. He was in his mid 30s when I was born. I was in my mid 20s when he passed away.

I stand corrected, but only by a few years. My dad was born in 1928 and his dad was born in 1894.

 

[Sinurgy]

General philosophy, mostly (as I explained above). I'm very high on Fantilli and think he'll be an amazing NHL player when his game matures. But I keep coming back again and again to the idea that teams win championships, and I've posted before that a team full of near-stars and hard-working everymen/women (like the 6-15 range of the draft) will go farther than a team like the Oilers have been for the past few years, with the best player in the game and one of the top-five best behind him, surrounded by a sharp dropoff in skill and cohesion.

TL;DR I think we can make up in aggregate what Fantilli brings alone, so while I would dearly love to play with the shiny new toy, I think quantity at that level of the draft is better for us long-term.



Well, consider this - as much as we desire Fantilli, so do the rest of the NHL teams. We've already seen in the thread how people would gladly give up the players at 6 and 11 to get Fantilli, so you gotta figure what would entice us to give up Fantilli if the roles were reversed. Would you be content with 6 and 11 if it meant giving up Fantilli? Based on the thread, I would wager not - even if it were supplemented with other later picks. You'd be wanting another prime asset or two to go along with it.

I agree every team that wins the cup is full of hard working players and near stars but they're typically anchored by at least 2 or 3 star players as well. Here are the teams that have won the cup in the last 15 years:

Colorado - MacKinnon, Makar, Rantanaan, Landiskog
Tampa Bay - Kucherov, Stamkos, Hedman
St. Louis - Tarasenko, Pietrangelo (I think this is the type of team you're describing)
Capitals - Ovechkin, Backstrom, Carlson
Penguins - Crosby, Malkin, Letang
Blackhawks - Kane, Toews, Keith
Kings - Kopitar, Doughty
Bruins - Chara, Thomas
Redwings - Lidstrom, Datsyuk, Zetterberg
Ducks - Getzlaf, Perry, Niedermayer, Pronger

Of those 15 teams, I think only a single team fits your description and that would be the one and done Blues. While star players are no guarantee of a cup, it would seem winning the cup without them is near impossible.

 

[Dead Coyote]

RE: Trading #6 and #11

It solely depends on what we know about the teams drafting and who we think they're taking.

If Benson and Michkov (assuming Carlsson, Fantilli, Bedard are 1-3) won't be available at #6, then I take the deal.

If either of them are, I keep the pick. Obviously this depends heavily on who we think #2 will take, and I agree that Carlsson, Fantilli, and Bedard are a step above Benson. But only Bedard is a step above Michkov, so if the #2 team is wanting to take him, I'd consider moving up if I think Benson will be gone at 6. It's quite possible that BOTH of those players fall though...and I'd much rather have one of them and another player (Reinbacher, Dragicevic, Sale, Dvorsky, Smith (who is my least favorite of the options), Yager, Barlow etc) than just have Fantilli/Carlsson/Michkov.

I'm very very high on all 3 of those players, but I think there's...at least a 50% chance that one of Michkov/Benson falls to #6 and if that's the case I'll snatch those guys up and be very happy about still having #11 to pick with.

 

[MIGs Dog]

I agree every team that wins the cup is full of hard working players and near stars but they're typically anchored by at least 2 or 3 star players as well. Here are the teams that have won the cup in the last 15 years:

Colorado - MacKinnon, Makar, Rantanaan, Landiskog
Tampa Bay - Kucherov, Stamkos, Hedman
St. Louis - Tarasenko, Pietrangelo (I think this is the type of team you're describing)
Capitals - Ovechkin, Backstrom, Carlson
Penguins - Crosby, Malkin, Letang
Blackhawks - Kane, Toews, Keith
Kings - Kopitar, Doughty
Bruins - Chara, Thomas
Redwings - Lidstrom, Datsyuk, Zetterberg
Ducks - Getzlaf, Perry, Niedermayer, Pronger

Of those 15 teams, I think only a single team fits your description and that would be the one and done Blues. While star players are no guarantee of a cup, it would seem winning the cup without them is near impossible.

I agree that you need stars to win, with the emphasis on plural, but what should be reassuring to Coyote fans is that drafting 1OA is not required. It certainly has helped many teams, but a Cup team can be built without lottery luck.

 

[Sinurgy]

I'd say yes, based on what I've read about the draft prospects. The #2 should be a home run. While the #6 should also be a solid NHL player, he likely will be lower quality than #2. #11 is starting to get into the unknown area. I would do the deal.

Based on your response and basically everyone elses as well (except Feckless), the difference between 2nd overall and 6th overall might as well be measured in light years. The consensus seems to be that adding 11th overall to the 6th overall wouldn't be enough to move up the 4 spots, in fact it would seem it hardly even moves the needle. Man this really puts into perspective what the drop in draft position has cost the franchise.

 

[Dead Coyote]

Consolidated rankings at midterm were still wide open and I don't think much has changed.

Consensus #1 is Bedard
#2 had 2 players receive votes (Bedard and Fantilli)
7 players in top 5 (Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Michkov, Benson, Smith, Sale)
16 players in top 10 (Yager, Cristall, Moore, Leonard, Perron, ASP, Barlow, Dvorsky, Danielson)
28! players in top 15 (Reinbacher, Honzek, Simashev, Musty, Heidt, Gulyayev, Stenberg, Ritchie, Wood, Gauthier, Perrault, Wallinder)
60!!! players in top 32 (Bonk, NDN, Lindstein, Dragicevic, Bjarnason, Whitelaw, Brindley, Molgaard, Mukhanov, Stramel, Hrabal, Allen, But, Halttunen, Lind, Cagnoni, Gajan, Ziemmer, Morin, Cataford, Nadeau, Price, Forsfjall)

I don't remember the last time consensus rankings for the first round were this all over the place.

EDIT: And you absolutely just know that with 32 GM's and 100+ scouts working for all those GM's, that there are probably even more players we don't know about. I'd say even the top 5 is wide open. The only thing I'm sure about is that Bedard will go #1.

 

[zerekstar]

I'm nearly 30 and I feel like I'm a young child on this forum

You have great insight which I put a lot of stock in.

 

[Sinurgy]

I agree that you need stars to win, with the emphasis on plural, but what should be reassuring to Coyote fans is that drafting 1OA is not required. It certainly has helped many teams, but a Cup team can be built without lottery luck.

It's not required but 10 of those 15 cups I just referenced had a #1OA pick on them.

 

[Sinurgy]

RE: Trading #6 and #11

It solely depends on what we know about the teams drafting and who we think they're taking.

If Benson and Michkov (assuming Carlsson, Fantilli, Bedard are 1-3) won't be available at #6, then I take the deal.

If either of them are, I keep the pick. Obviously this depends heavily on who we think #2 will take, and I agree that Carlsson, Fantilli, and Bedard are a step above Benson. But only Bedard is a step above Michkov, so if the #2 team is wanting to take him, I'd consider moving up if I think Benson will be gone at 6. It's quite possible that BOTH of those players fall though...and I'd much rather have one of them and another player (Reinbacher, Dragicevic, Sale, Dvorsky, Smith (who is my least favorite of the options), Yager, Barlow etc) than just have Fantilli/Carlsson/Michkov.

I'm very very high on all 3 of those players, but I think there's...at least a 50% chance that one of Michkov/Benson falls to #6 and if that's the case I'll snatch those guys up and be very happy about still having #11 to pick with.

So basically you think one of Benson/Michkov + 11th overall is greater than Fantilli?

 

[Dead Coyote]

So basically you think one of Benson/Michkov + 11th overall is greater than Fantilli?

Absolutely and it's not close. Personally I believe Michkov is a better talent than Fantilli (outside issues with Russia and contract notwithstanding) and view Benson as projecting to the same heights as Fantilli in terms of valuableness to a franchise, but in a much different way. Benson projects as a more all round #1C/W who controls the flow of the game and offense through vision and playmaking and is good on both ends of the ice. Fantilli projects as a big, elite offensive goalscorer/power forward who has bite/physicality to his game and is good on both ends of the ice. I *would* say that Benson *currently* has a higher chance of reaching that peak than Fantilli, but only because Fantilli has a lot to work on defensively and will likely have a harder time learning- Fantilli will still be elite offensively and almost definitely a better goalscorer than Benson.

So which is better? A goal scorer who is physical, can crash the net, and is decent or good defensively ala Ovechkin? Or a high IQ playmaker who plays the game incredibly smart, and can control the pace of the game who is always dangerous ala Crosby?

(I'm not comparing either of these guys directly to Crosby/Ovechkin, just their role in the team)

 

[MIGs Dog]

It's not required but 10 of those 15 cups I just referenced had a #1OA pick on them.

1/3 ain't bad. And look at Boston. They are crushing it this year. I don't think they even have any top 5 picks on their roster.

 

[Jamieh]

1/3 ain't bad. And look at Boston. They are crushing it this year. I don't think they even have any top 5 picks on their roster.

Tampa's 1st Cup was played without Stamkos for all but a couple minutes as well.

 

[Dead Coyote]

f*** it, I'm gonna stop procrastinating and do my draft rankings/analysis. I've watched enough games, I just need to make decisions lol. Gonna do it over in mock drafts though as I don't want to have a huge post take up 30 scrolls in this thread. Will link it when I'm done.

 

[PHX FireBirds18]

Absolutely no way. Gulyayev has a ton of warts. He's like...probably 5th or 6th on my list of d-man. Definitely have Simashev above him. And they're different players but Gulyayev IMO doesn't even stack up great against the other offensive d-man in the draft. People are so in love with his skating and IQ, both great assets, but his shot is mediocre at best, and his defense leaves a lot to be desired as does his size and strength. He's a good PMD who can quarterback a PP, for sure, but right now he's more like Torey Krug than he is like Cale Makar.

I’m seeing a lot of Brian Campbell in that one vid that was posted. It wasn’t until they started showing him pivoting his hips and walking half the line on two c cuts is when I started taking notice. Some of the breakout passes were off the mark but he was already shoulder to shoulder with the forwards after a couple strides. I would have to watch more of the player to determine if he can actually play defense though.

 

[rt]

I’m seeing a lot of Brian Campbell in that one vid that was posted. It wasn’t until they started showing him pivoting his hips and walking half the line on two c cuts is when I started taking notice. Some of the breakout passes were off the mark but he was already shoulder to shoulder with the forwards after a couple strides. I would have to watch more of the player to determine if he can actually play defense though.

A bit like Adam Fox-Lite.

 

[rt]

Boy that Nate Danielson sure looks fantastic in transition. Not sure if the WHL tracks controlled zone exits and entries but this kid has got to be up there. Good size, picture perfect skater, head up player. Neutral zone hound, good defensively, and great on the PK. Big, strong RHS C, is already a captain for the wheat kings (old for his draft year). He really does look the part when he’s flying down the middle, controlling the puck.

 

[Sinurgy]

Absolutely and it's not close. Personally I believe Michkov is a better talent than Fantilli (outside issues with Russia and contract notwithstanding) and view Benson as projecting to the same heights as Fantilli in terms of valuableness to a franchise, but in a much different way. Benson projects as a more all round #1C/W who controls the flow of the game and offense through vision and playmaking and is good on both ends of the ice. Fantilli projects as a big, elite offensive goalscorer/power forward who has bite/physicality to his game and is good on both ends of the ice. I *would* say that Benson *currently* has a higher chance of reaching that peak than Fantilli, but only because Fantilli has a lot to work on defensively and will likely have a harder time learning- Fantilli will still be elite offensively and almost definitely a better goalscorer than Benson.

So which is better? A goal scorer who is physical, can crash the net, and is decent or good defensively ala Ovechkin? Or a high IQ playmaker who plays the game incredibly smart, and can control the pace of the game who is always dangerous ala Crosby?

(I'm not comparing either of these guys directly to Crosby/Ovechkin, just their role in the team)

I thought Benson was pretty well entrenched as a winger but admittedly I don't follow the prospects as closely as I wish should, at least for this draft. Anyway if you think those 2 players are as good or equal to Fantilli I guess that's a no brainer for you then. I'm not so sure but I guess it doesn't matter since not only is it super unlikely the team with 2nd overall would offer that pick but also AZ is extremely unlikely to pick 6th or 11th anyway. Which leads me to the sad part, it's unlikely you're getting Benson or Michkov either thanks to all the garbage time points.

 

[Sinurgy]

1/3 ain't bad. And look at Boston. They are crushing it this year. I don't think they even have any top 5 picks on their roster.

It ain't great either, particularly when you then realize that all but 3 of the past 15 cup champions iced players who were drafted in the top 3! There will always be outliers ala Boston but it's pretty clear the road to the stanley cup is almost always traveled with players from the top 3.

 

[Llewzaher]

Sooooo...assuming whomever holds the #2 overall pick would be interested, would any of you be willing to trade both the 6th and 11th overall picks for it?

Yup but would have to add a lot

edit lol.. obviously late to the party…. However if we had to add… no one has more draft capital than us in the next few years

 

[Dead Coyote]

I thought Benson was pretty well entrenched as a winger but admittedly I don't follow the prospects as closely as I wish should, at least for this draft. Anyway if you think those 2 players are as good or equal to Fantilli I guess that's a no brainer for you then. I'm not so sure but I guess it doesn't matter since not only is it super unlikely the team with 2nd overall would offer that pick but also AZ is extremely unlikely to pick 6th or 11th anyway. Which leads me to the sad part, it's unlikely you're getting Benson or Michkov either thanks to all the garbage time points.

Benson plays on a team and line with several other natural centers (Geekie and Savoie usually on his line and Pederson otherwise) but he absolutely has the skills to play center and be good at it, it will depend on his size and growth and how that impacts his strength on whether he will or not. But I think he has a pretty good chance of it given his playstyle and work ethic.