Prospect Info: 2023 Draft Thread (Yotes picking #6 & #12)

[lanky]

Not apples to apples but still nice.

The Bedard hype has deservedly gone to a whole new level but I'm not convinced that he's any better than Michkov.

 

[rt]

The Bedard hype has deservedly gone to a whole new level but I'm not convinced that he's any better than Michkov.

I’m pretty sure.

Bedard has no holes. Michkov, from what I’ve read, seems to have plenty. I think a full step below Bedard, in a tier with Carlsson and Fantilli who are both having very special and memorable draft seasons in their leagues (production wise) is no insult. Especially given those guys have all the physical gifts of size and speed.

 

[Jakey53]

Button is getting really whacky in his old age. And he was pretty whacky before he got old.

Craig’s List: Connor Bedard rises to generational status in NHL Draft ranking | TSN

If there was any doubt about Connor Bedard as the consensus No. 1 in the 2023 NHL Draft, those concerns were shattered after a legendary performance at the World Juniors. Check out the new Top 64 from Craig Button.

www.tsn.ca

I know he is wacky, but what didn't you like?

 

[rt]

I know he is wacky, but what didn't you like?

I need to watch more CHL games before I can really weigh in. Even then, I’m no scout. Im just a fan. I rank kids who play games I “like”. I can’t project anything. I sell software and I’m a lousy skater. Haha.

I was commenting more that he’s deviated from the “consensus” considerably. And that he seems to more and more each year. Both in breadth and in depth (or I guess frequency and degree?).

I don’t mind it. The goofball Twitter scouts all do too. And I find them refreshing and interesting. I’m just a bit more jarred when I see “TSN” attached to hot takes like this. I shouldn’t be. I’m sure individual NHL scouts and even final team lists have even more deviation from the “consensus” than Button or even Scouch (as an example of the wildest popular ranker).

McKenzie’s poll is obviously the consensus. Literally. It’s just an average of polled data from NHL teams. But I’m thinking Corey Pronman is becoming the next best “predictor” as he’s become more connected.

He openly admits that his conversations with NHL scouts and front office execs sway his rankings. That he sends his list out and accepts feedback and makes changes. He seems to think this is more like what happens to lists in scouting meetings anyway. And I agree and am fine with that. I don’t care about purity.

 

[lanky]

I’m pretty sure.

Bedard has no holes. Michkov, from what I’ve read, seems to have plenty. I think a full step below Bedard, in a tier with Carlsson and Fantilli who are both having very special and memorable draft seasons in their leagues (production wise) is no insult. Especially given those guys have all the physical gifts of size and speed.

If you look only at current offensive production and forget about projections, Michkov is way ahead of Fantilli and Carlsson.

 

[hbk]

If you look only at current offensive production and forget about projections, Michkov is way ahead of Fantilli and Carlsson.

If he wasn't Russian there is an argument I feel for Michkov at 2OV. As it stands with the uncertainty I suspect he goes 5-8

 

[Coyotes19c]

If he wasn't Russian there is an argument I feel for Michkov at 2OV. As it stands with the uncertainty I suspect he goes 5-8

I want us to draft him with our 2nd first round pick (that we hopefully get from the trade deadline). This is assuming he’s fine with coming to Arizona when his contract ends.

 

[hbk]

I want us to draft him with our 2nd first round pick (that we hopefully get from the trade deadline). This is assuming he’s fine with coming to Arizona when his contract ends.

I don't think we are getting another top 10 pick.

 

[Coyotes19c]

I don't think we are getting another top 10 pick.

I think trading up again is very possible. We have the assets to make it happen.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

If he wasn't Russian there is an argument I feel for Michkov at 2OV. As it stands with the uncertainty I suspect he goes 5-8

That contract thing will always be an issue for me, no matter how good he is.

The way our team is set up, and they way they want to come out of the rebuild right when TED opens in about 4 - 5 years, means that we want whoever we draft this year to have developed and be ready for prime time right as we're ready to make an honest run at the playoffs. Michkov has a built-in two-year delay on that process. So for me, I'd rather pick someone else.

For anyone who says, "You'll regret missing out on his talent," I really doubt I will - because that's the thing with prospects, there is always someone else coming down the pike every year who people believe is The Next Big Thing in case you miss out on The Big Thing in a given season. For me, it's always going to be about the team, and who can help it and how, rather than just going after a surfeit of skill and talent for its own merits.

I realize I'm probably in the minority here, and that's fine. I just feel like, if you're trying to build the best Star Wars diorama, you don't buy a super-cool Pikachu, no matter how rare it is, because it just won't fit the context.

 

[rt]

If you look only at current offensive production and forget about projections, Michkov is way ahead of Fantilli and Carlsson.

All three are having extremely impressive - on the all time lists type of seasons in their respective leagues. Michkov’s league is the best of them. But there’s no guarantee how he’d perform relative to the others in their leagues. All three are eye poppingly productive for draft eligible players right now and all three are doing in leagues where they rarely happens.

And despite Michkov being much smaller, less toolsy, and much less well-rounded, I’m still happy to put him in their tier.

I’m just not about to put any of them in Bedard’s tier. Last guy in that tier was Matthews.

 

[rt]

If he wasn't Russian there is an argument I feel for Michkov at 2OV. As it stands with the uncertainty I suspect he goes 5-8

We’re a long way out but I think if the draft was tomorrow and no darkhorses had time to climb further, he’d go 2-4 I’d guess. Probably 4th though. A team just starting a rebuild with a food history with Russians like Chicago might take him 2nd or 3rd. Of course the Fantilli connection to Chicago is maybe too enticing.

Say AZ moves to 1st and Philly up to 2nd. I could see AZ taking Bedard, Philly Fantilli, Chicago Michkov and Columbus Carlsson.

 

[rt]

That contract thing will always be an issue for me, no matter how good he is.

The way our team is set up, and they way they want to come out of the rebuild right when TED opens in about 4 - 5 years, means that we want whoever we draft this year to have developed and be ready for prime time right as we're ready to make an honest run at the playoffs. Michkov has a built-in two-year delay on that process. So for me, I'd rather pick someone else.

For anyone who says, "You'll regret missing out on his talent," I really doubt I will - because that's the thing with prospects, there is always someone else coming down the pike every year who people believe is The Next Big Thing in case you miss out on The Big Thing in a given season. For me, it's always going to be about the team, and who can help it and how, rather than just going after a surfeit of skill and talent for its own merits.

I realize I'm probably in the minority here, and that's fine. I just feel like, if you're trying to build the best Star Wars diorama, you don't buy a super-cool Pikachu, no matter how rare it is, because it just won't fit the context.

The Caps had to be wait like 4+ years for Kuznetsov, IIRC. But he didn’t stop developing. It wasn’t a developmental delay. If I’m not mistaken, he was a top player for them pretty much right away.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

The Caps had to be wait like 4+ years for Kuznetsov, IIRC. But he didn’t stop developing. It wasn’t a developmental delay. If I’m not mistaken, he was a top player for them pretty much right away.

I don't know much about the Caps' history, but if I had to guess I'd say that they were not in the situation we are in as a franchise. We can afford very few luxuries, particularly at this point of our existence.

Again, if everyone disagrees with me, that's fine, and BA calls the shots with his scouts, not me. I'm not going to commit hara-kiri if they use our first pick on Michkov. We have enough assets in the Draft that we can augment that pick with more immediate return in later rounds. But my personal preference is to let someone else take a chance on a small Russian right winger who might be the next Patrick Kane (hopefully without the baggage) and pick someone who might not have as much raw skill, but is a better and more immediate fit in our system.

 

[Llewzaher]

The Caps had to be wait like 4+ years for Kuznetsov, IIRC. But he didn’t stop developing. It wasn’t a developmental delay. If I’m not mistaken, he was a top player for them pretty much right away.

Like Teemu Selanee drafted in 88 , first season 92 - 93

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

Like last season when I wasn't thrilled with trading 3 picks to get Geekie...I truly hope we don't do that again. I like having more darts and right now I'd trade Geekie straight up for Kulich who went #27

 

[hbk]

Like Teemu Selanee drafted in 88 , first season 92 - 93

Well he did have a year of military service and then he broke his leg.

 

[lanky]

Today's PHNX podcast was focused on the draft with guest Chris Peters.

A couple takeaways
- The top 4 plus Will Smith is gaining separation from the rest.

-David Reinbacher is the top defenseman. He's the highest scoring draft year player ever in the Swiss men's league. He's also a 6'2 right-shooting D.

These two points have me believing that Reinbacher will be our pick if we fall outside the top 5. Our scouts have also been leaning in to the German speaking leagues lately with Moser, Lutz and Szuber.

 

[PHX FireBirds18]

If u asked me at the start of season i would have likely said Yager.

Today its likely Dvorsky. I like that Barlow kid as well. Watching him closely these days.

If we draft outside of the top 5 I wouldn’t mind Barlow. This comment is made without seeing everyone but a big burly leader type that can pot some goals. Still missing Doan. We have a lot of shifty playmaker types so adding another shooter sounds appealing to me. The guy plays with fire listed at 6’1 which surprised me. Definitely plays bigger than he is.

 

[rt]

Today's PHNX podcast was focused on the draft with guest Chris Peters.

A couple takeaways
- The top 4 plus Will Smith is gaining separation from the rest.

-David Reinbacher is the top defenseman. He's the highest scoring draft year player ever in the Swiss men's league. He's also a 6'2 right-shooting D.

These two points have me believing that Reinbacher will be our pick if we fall outside the top 5. Our scouts have also been leaning in to the German speaking leagues lately with Moser, Lutz and Szuber.

I liked when they were talking lines:

Keller-Matthews-Bedard
Maccelli-Cooley-Guenther

I don’t know what to make of Reinbacher. Austria was so overmatched against the top six teams, and I honestly couldn’t bring myself to watch Austria vs Germany, Latvia, or Switzerland. I might get a good idea of the player if I watched those games. I’m not sure I can invest the time. Haha.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

Reinbacher was good, but not top 10 good to be our pick. We need goal-scoring, we've got playmakers (Keller, Maccelli, Schmaltz, Cooley), we need more goal scorers to go along w/the playmakers.

 

[Antonche]

Our def's group is awful. We need high end puckmover or top 2way mental leader. Attack group with Cooley, healthy Maccelli and steping forward Geekie is good in perspective. Our d's deep is most problem part for future.

 

[Jagged Ice]

Like last season when I wasn't thrilled with trading 3 picks to get Geekie...I truly hope we don't do that again. I like having more darts and right now I'd trade Geekie straight up for Kulich who went #27

I would have taken Mateychuk, Miroshnichenko or Yurov with the 11th pick, but I'm still good with Geekie. I think Geekie will thrive under the right coach. We've all seen what he's capable of. He either plays like a superstar or he's invisible. But he's got skill and great size. I think AT will get the best out of him.

 

[Dead Coyote]

For the most part, I actually like Button's list. The hottest take there is Yager at 12, Leonard right below him and then Stramel at 44. Reinbacher I keep seeing low on lists and I'm not sure why. He's not a top 10 talent, but he's close to it. For me he's probably the 2nd best D-man behind Dragicevic, who is another guy that seems constantly underrated.

I watched all of the games at the WJC (or at the very least watched some of them + highlights for a few in the RR that I had to work through) and while Bedard is very clearly #1, I still don't think Michkov is much below him. Below him for sure, but not by much.

Bedard

Michkov

Carlsson
Fantilli

Everyone else

Is how I would put it right now.

In terms of ranking for who I'd prefer *us* to draft, this is what I'd do.


Clear top 4

1. Bedard
2/3. Carlsson
3/2. Fantilli
4. Michkov

There isn't much of a gap between these guys and the next tier, but there is between top 4 and the rest

5. Sale
6. Benson
7. Dvorsky

Next tier between these guys is really close

8/9/10
Smith
Yager
Perrault

11, Dragicevic

12-15
Stramel
Heidt
Barlow

It's really hard to rank anything past 4, because 5-10 could all go anywhere in that position, and even 15 could jump to 8 potentially.

 

[Jakey53]

Our def's group is awful. We need high end puckmover or top 2way mental leader. Attack group with Cooley, healthy Maccelli and steping forward Geekie is good in perspective. Our d's deep is most problem part for future.

We lose Chych and Ghost we don't have much left and not much in the way of quality in the minors, unless we can get a D or two when trading Chych and Ghost.