2023 Draft Prospect Polls: Happy/Mad with Nate Danielson at #9?

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

don’t shoot the messenger

I get it. But I've watched a lot of full games with Reinbacher this year and the stuff I read in the blackbook this year did not match the prospect I watched at all. There was also some BS scout comment posted on twitter earlier this year where someone trashed Reinbacher for compiling secondary assists when a google search of scoring logs would show he had more primary assists than secondary assists. I think blackbook interviewed the one scout that just doesn't like the guy.

 

[Frk It]

I've read some things recently about Reinbacher that I don't like. Kinda feels like there's interest more because he fills a need than because he's a legit top-9 player.

I might do a poll for this one too, just to make @jkutswings super happy

I feel a bit similar as you on this one. I would be perfectly fine with taking Reinbacher, but I would have way more tempered expectations than with Edvinsson and Seider. I think the other 2 guys have far superior tools to work with.

 

[norrisnick]

Simashev =/= Edvinsson
Danielson =/= Kasper

They are very different players aside from position. I'm not drinking the Simashev sauce. From what I've seen in his highlights I think he's a plus level athletic defenseman that has Rasmus Ristolainen brain syndrome. Edvinsson always played pretty smart. I don't think I've seen that in what little I've seen of Simashev.
Danielson and Kasper are centers with good skating and strong defensive tendencies. That doesn't make them the same player though.

So how about REAL reasons?

They are the same types of player. Decently sized two-way centers with plus skating and high compete but questions about ultimate offensive upside. Now, that's a great player to have. But we don't need to draft that player every year. We picked him last year. Lets try something else.

Big, smooth skating rangy two-way LHD. Again, not a bad player to have. But we are full up.

Draft who you think can be a first line forward. Not who has the highest potential to be an NHLer. We have a ton of NHLers. We need difference makers at the top.

If you want to pick a safe forward, pick a safe D instead with Willander. Much more valuable player.

 

[Detroit Knights]

Danielsson size and the way he looks in those highlights just looks like a tage thompson/alex tuch kind of guy. I really wouldn't mind that, but from what I've read, Danielsson is a mid to late 1st.

I think I would put a guy like Dvorsky above him.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Danielsson size and the way he looks in those highlights just looks like a tage thompson/alex tuch kind of guy. I really wouldn't mind that, but from what I've read, Danielsson is a mid to late 1st.

I think I would put a guy like Dvorsky above him.

Danielson's not going late 1st. Big centers that can skate and shoot and compete like him don't last long.

As for Dvorsky? I don't know. I love the shooting and his on-puck play but his skating still makes me think he's just a winger. And as for ultimate upside I think he's a 2nd liner. Not great IQ and not great skating will ultimately limit him.

 

[Holden Caufield]

If people really want it, then fine. It just seems overkill to the point of silliness to have a draft thread, and then a poll for every semi-realistic candidate at each draft position.

The draft thread can have 10 different posters posting about 10 different players on any given day and then 2 extra guys arguing about something random like Cossa or the history of Tampa Bay Lightning drafting habits.

Nice to have streamlined conversations for specific prospects in our range.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

They are the same types of player. Decently sized two-way centers with plus skating and high compete but questions about ultimate offensive upside. Now, that's a great player to have. But we don't need to draft that player every year. We picked him last year. Lets try something else.

Big, smooth skating rangy two-way LHD. Again, not a bad player to have. But we are full up.

Draft who you think can be a first line forward. Not who has the highest potential to be an NHLer. We have a ton of NHLers. We need difference makers at the top.

If you want to pick a safe forward, pick a safe D instead with Willander. Much more valuable player.

That's too much oversimplification when comparing their profiles. And it worked out great picking Kasper (like I knew it would ) but they are still different types of players. Danielson is more of a sniper where Kasper is more of a playmaker. Kasper is also MUCH more physical as a player than Danielson.

I can't imagine Tampa saying, "Nah, let's pass on that Cirelli kid because we picked Brayden Point last year." And to quote Rzombo4prez, I can't see Detroit saying mission accomplished after drafting Kasper and not picking another valuable center.

Also, would you rather gamble on a kid that's got a 40% chance of being a defensively responsible top 6 guy with a 50% chance of "busting" and becoming a defensive specialist middle 6 player, and a 10% chance of becoming a top line guy...

...or would you rather take a swing at a guy that's a bad skater and has a 20% (being generous here) chance of being a top line player, 20% chance of being top 6, and 60% chance of outright busting? Because when I see names like Perreault, Cristall, Wood and a few others mentioned in the draft that's what I think could happen with them.

 

[Henkka]

Danielsson size and the way he looks in those highlights just looks like a tage thompson/alex tuch kind of guy. I really wouldn't mind that, but from what I've read, Danielsson is a mid to late 1st.

Like I said, he'll be there at #17.

 

[Indrid Cold]

Thats not his absolute upside



Danielson is the Kasper of this draft. A late riser thats liked way more by actually NHL scouts than the media "scouts". Does a little bit of everything and plays a really pro game. Played on a bad team but was the clear best player, has some gritand offensive upside and like Kasper will be a shitty guy to play against in a playoff series.

I posted this in another thread but its more relevant here.

This is what legit NHL scouts and executives have to say about Danielson. The question was who is the number 2 player in the WHL this year behind Bedard. A couple others answered Benson and one Yager but the overhwleming favourite was Danielson

“Danielson. He has so much going for him. He’s a great skater, the size down the middle, he has skill, hockey sense, he plays both ways. He could be a better skating version of Anton Lundell.”

“Danielson has an easy path to being a top two-line NHL center. He skates very well, he’s smart, he competes, he has NHL size. People are sleeping on him.”

“Danielson has a lot of NHL in him, a ton of upside between his size, skating and skill. He didn’t have as much around him as the other top guys, but he would have put up a lot of points on a different team.”

“I lean Danielson. He looks like a no-doubt NHL center, a guy who is going to play for a long time and be very good for you. I can’t sit here and promise you big point totals, maybe they come, maybe they don’t, but you can pick him and sleep easy.”

“It’s between Danielson and Honzek for me. I lean Danielson because of the position. Both have NHL bodies and skating ability, produce offense and are two-way guys.”

This is where the scouts were asked who isnt getting enough love publically

“Nate Danielson. He’s an all-day NHL player, candidate to go in the top 10. He skates, competes and has the size of an NHL center and I think there will be enough offense for him to play big minutes.”

I like the cut of your jib here.

Like with Kasper vs. Savoie. If Savoie scores 15 more points a season than Kasper does, but isn't physical and doesn't play defense like Kasper does, who is the better player? 'Media' scouts with say Savoie, while REAL scouts would say Kasper.

 

[norrisnick]

That's too much oversimplification when comparing their profiles. And it worked out great picking Kasper (like I knew it would ) but they are still different types of players. Danielson is more of a sniper where Kasper is more of a playmaker. Kasper is also MUCH more physical as a player than Danielson.

I can't imagine Tampa saying, "Nah, let's pass on that Cirelli kid because we picked Brayden Point last year." And to quote Rzombo4prez, I can't see Detroit saying mission accomplished after drafting Kasper and not picking another valuable center.

Also, would you rather gamble on a kid that's got a 40% chance of being a defensively responsible top 6 guy with a 50% chance of "busting" and becoming a defensive specialist middle 6 player, and a 10% chance of becoming a top line guy...

...or would you rather take a swing at a guy that's a bad skater and has a 20% (being generous here) chance of being a top line player, 20% chance of being top 6, and 60% chance of outright busting? Because when I see names like Perreault, Cristall, Wood and a few others mentioned in the draft that's what I think could happen with them.

The same reasons that made Kasper a great pick last year, makes Danielson a less great pick this year. Namely positional need to solidify the C lineup behind Larkin. Last year we had Larkin, Suter, Ras, and Veleno. Now we have Larkin, Copp, Kasper, and Suter/Veleno with Ras at the wing.

And yes, it is oversimplified because I don't feel like writing dissertations with every post.

The latter. 100%. And the 10% of being a top line guy for the first guy should be 10% scrub out completely. 10% top line play is far more generous than your 20% for the second option.

I like the cut of your jib here.

Like with Kasper vs. Savoie. If Savoie scores 15 more points a season than Kasper does, but isn't physical and doesn't play defense like Kasper does, who is the better player? 'Media' scouts with say Savoie, while REAL scouts would say Kasper.

Having one of each makes you a better team than having two of either.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

The latter.

I think the root of our argument is philosophic at this point then.

 

[norrisnick]

I think the root of our argument is philosophic at this point then.

Well, yeah. We have a roster full of NHLers. We need to get some difference makers.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Well, yeah. We have a roster full of NHLers. We need to get some difference makers.

So...you pass Danielson who has the makeup of a guy that can put up 25-30 goals a season in the NHL regularly because you want a kid with poor skating/motor/size constraints that will take 4+ years might score 30-35?

Again I point to the Vegas Knights as an example. Larkin would have been their top scorer this year and they won the f***ing cup. You could have swapped Eichel and Larkin and they still win the cup. 3 of the 4 teams they beat had the difference makers you want in Robertson, Tkachuk and McDrai + RNH. How did they do it? Superior depth. How do you get superior depth? In Detroit's case it will have to be drafting well. Zadina was an upside pick. So was Cholowski. Picking for only upside while ignoring how ugly the floor is how you build the Montreal Canadiens.

 

[norrisnick]

So...you pass Danielson who has the makeup of a guy that can put up 25-30 goals a season in the NHL regularly because you want a kid with poor skating/motor/size constraints that will take 4+ years might score 30-35?

Again I point to the Vegas Knights as an example. Larkin would have been their top scorer this year and they won the f***ing cup. You could have swapped Eichel and Larkin and they still win the cup. 3 of the 4 teams they beat had the difference makers you want in Robertson, Tkachuk and McDrai + RNH. How did they do it? Superior depth. How do you get superior depth? In Detroit's case it will have to be drafting well. Zadina was an upside pick. So was Cholowski. Picking for only upside while ignoring how ugly the floor is how you build the Montreal Canadiens.

I think Dallas and Buffalo are pretty content with Robertson and Tage's development curves.

Do you think Vegas loses the cup if Reilly Smith is Robertson instead?

That and depth is pretty easy when you spend $14M over the cap.

 

[Detroit Knights]

Danielson's not going late 1st. Big centers that can skate and shoot and compete like him don't last long.

As for Dvorsky? I don't know. I love the shooting and his on-puck play but his skating still makes me think he's just a winger. And as for ultimate upside I think he's a 2nd liner. Not great IQ and not great skating will ultimately limit him.

I see what your saying about dvorsky. I just think if he were able to stay as a center, being 6'1'' 200 to start out is pretty good. But if his IQ ain't there then I don't see how Yzerman would choose him.

I've said it a couple of times, but our 9th OA is going to be a high IQ player with a specific skillset for their drafted position. Kasper, edvinsson, seider. All high IQ players that were specific to their position and weren't going to move off it. Kasper has stayed true to being a center, so much so lalonde used him as center to see what he's working with on the second line for that game. ed and seider are defenseman so can't really change their position but point still stands I think.

Who has the best IQ that is projected to be available at 9? Leonard? Reinbacher? Legitmately asking. You and @Frk It no more about this stuff than me.

 

[Leadzedder]

Frk, the polls are appreciated but I’m not getting much out of them. Don’t we normally do our own ranking polls for our preference?

I always like seeing how we rank as a group before the draft. I don’t have time to do it. Do we want it? Can anyone whip it up?

I’d say the top 3 are a lock, or at least not possible for 9th. Start at 4. Half day polls?

 

[Fyodorov]

That's too much oversimplification when comparing their profiles. And it worked out great picking Kasper (like I knew it would ) but they are still different types of players. Danielson is more of a sniper where Kasper is more of a playmaker. Kasper is also MUCH more physical as a player than Danielson.

I can't imagine Tampa saying, "Nah, let's pass on that Cirelli kid because we picked Brayden Point last year." And to quote Rzombo4prez, I can't see Detroit saying mission accomplished after drafting Kasper and not picking another valuable center.

Also, would you rather gamble on a kid that's got a 40% chance of being a defensively responsible top 6 guy with a 50% chance of "busting" and becoming a defensive specialist middle 6 player, and a 10% chance of becoming a top line guy...

...or would you rather take a swing at a guy that's a bad skater and has a 20% (being generous here) chance of being a top line player, 20% chance of being top 6, and 60% chance of outright busting? Because when I see names like Perreault, Cristall, Wood and a few others mentioned in the draft that's what I think could happen with them.

Not sure how you can say definitively that Kasper "worked out great" before he's even played a single game in NA, let alone the NHL.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I would be happy with him at 9. I will almost guarantee that he does not make it to 17. At this point I think people are over-stating the offensive upside of a lot of these forwards. He projects really well as an NHL center and frankly you cannot have too many of them in an organization. He is one of those guys who could look a lot different once surrounded by talent.

 

[jaster]

I think the root of our argument is philosophic at this point then.

Took ya long enough. I figured that out after like 2 posts between me and nick

 

[DoMakc]

Not sure how you can say definitively that Kasper "worked out great" before he's even played a single game in NA, let alone the NHL.

I can easily say that, because he already played a game in the NHL, which also took place in NA (I think Canada counts,right?)

 

[jaster]

Not sure how you can say definitively that Kasper "worked out great" before he's even played a single game in NA, let alone the NHL.

Que?

 

[norrisnick]

I would be happy with him at 9. I will almost guarantee that he does not make it to 17. At this point I think people are over-stating the offensive upside of a lot of these forwards. He projects really well as an NHL center and frankly you cannot have too many of them in an organization. He is one of those guys who could look a lot different once surrounded by talent.

What are you going to do with a roster full of Copps?

As to the last point. It is the "surrounded by talent" part we should be drafting.

Took ya long enough. I figured that out after like 2 posts between me and nick

It's easy to sort Wing fans into two camps. Who did you like more, Helm or Hudler?

 

[RedHawkDown]

Id be neutral, he has upside but I think he is probably a 25-35 guy for his career. Whcih is fine but doesn’t move the needle. As for highest IQ guys available at 9, Probably Benson. IQ is at th top of this draft, likely higher than Bedards.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

What are you going to do with a roster full of Copps?

This is a bad faith argument.

This is what your argument sounds like to me:

Player that can't skate, has questionable motor, avoids contact, but scores a lot in junior while playing one-dimensional hockey = homerun swing.
Player with good size, motor, IQ and can skate but scores less than the above because they also play two-way hockey = Andrew Copp clone.

Also, I f***ing wish this team was filled with Andrew Copps instead of the Velenos and Zadinas and Suters and Ernes. LOOK AT SEATTLE! A roster of "middle 6 players" with no "game breakers" and they had a season that we Wings fan could only wish for right now.

Draft good players. The rest will sort itself out.

 

[norrisnick]

This is a bad faith argument.

This is what your argument sounds like to me:

Player that can't skate, has questionable motor, avoids contact, but scores a lot in junior while playing one-dimensional hockey = homerun swing.
Player with good size, motor, IQ and can skate but scores less than the above because they also play two-way hockey = Andrew Copp clone.

Also, I f***ing wish this team was filled with Andrew Copps instead of the Velenos and Zadinas and Suters and Ernes. LOOK AT SEATTLE! A roster of "middle 6 players" with no "game breakers" and they had a season that we Wings fan could only wish for right now.

Draft good players. The rest will sort itself out.

Let's bunt our way to victory!