GDT: 2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread

[ArmadilloThumb]

Did anyone end up drafting that massive Italian goalie that I was hearing about?

Duncan? Not sure he's eligible. Also had mobility issues...

 

[Kalopsia]

Did anyone end up drafting that massive Italian goalie that I was hearing about?

Yeah, the Ducks took Damian Clara all the way back in the 2nd with the 60th OA.

 

[Carlzner]

Rough new rankings...

1. Leonard
2. Miroshnichenko
3. Cristall
4. Lapierre
5. McMicheal
6. Chesley
7. Iorio
8. Suzdalev
9. Allen
10. Hofer?

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

Rough new rankings...

1. Leonard
2. Miroshnichenko
3. Cristall
4. Lapierre
5. McMicheal
6. Chesley
7. Iorio
8. Suzdalev
9. Allen
10. Hofer?

Some of the order may still be TBD, but certainly better than a week ago!

Development camp should be interesting!!

 

[marcel snapshot]

Prospect guy on NHL Radio saying over-agers may have a gotten a harder look this year than most others because COVID stunted or interrupted development for 04s.

 

[Langway]

Leonard, Miro, Cristall, McMichael, Lapierre, Suzdalev, Iorio, Chesley, Hofer, Allen.

I think you can make a case for Cristall over Miro, at least from a pure offensive ceiling standpoint. Instantly the most creative player in the system. Needs a lot of work in other areas but boatloads of fun on the PP and the halfwall. Sick hands.

 

[racingmoose]

It’s always good to add a RHD to the pipeline. Seems like a decent pick for a 5th rounder

Yep, and this is a very solid selection in the later rounds.

 

[Kalopsia]

Rough new rankings...

1. Leonard
2. Miroshnichenko
3. Cristall
4. Lapierre
5. McMicheal
6. Chesley
7. Iorio
8. Suzdalev
9. Allen
10. Hofer?

I think I'd swap Iorio with Cristall, McMichael with Lapierre, and Suzdalev with Chesley, but that's the pretty clear top 10 assuming Protas no longer counts.

 

[usiel]

Chesley is harder to evaluate considering his role on that college team this year figure after this upcoming season we'll have a better read.

 

[twabby]

TopDownHockey's equivalency models rank the prospects as follows:

1. Cristall
2. Leonard
3/4. Miroshnichenko/McMichael (CMM has a higher NHLer rate, but Miroshnichenko has a higher "star" rate)
5. Iorio
6. Suzdalev
7. Allen
8. Lapierre
9. Chesley

Hofer's not in their database for some reason.

 

[Ridley Simon]

TopDownHockey's equivalency models rank the prospects as follows:

1. Cristall
2. Leonard
3/4. Miroshnichenko/McMichael (CMM has a higher NHLer rate, but Miroshnichenko has a higher "star" rate)
5. Iorio
6. Suzdalev
7. Allen
8. Lapierre
9. Chesley

Hofer's not in their database for some reason.

Damn you @twabby. You’ve failed us. Miserably.

Ridley Simon is getting upset!!

 

[letsgocaps]

Antoine Keller

 

[RandyHolt]

It's nice to not just be drafting random defenders again.

I think BMac got it stuck into his head... in McPhee's voice... you can never have enough undersized puck moving defensemen.

I think I have PTSD from neglecting forward for what seems like a decade.

 

[twabby]

Washington Capitals 2023 NHL Draft grade

Corey Pronman evaluates the Capitals' picks at the 2023 NHL Draft.

theathletic.com

Analysis: Cristall is very talented offensively. He has puck-on-a-string type of hands and routinely beats defenders with his stickhandling. He has a highly-imaginative offensive mind and very good vision with the puck. Cristall is so dangerous on the power play because of his skill but also his great shot, as he’s scored a ton of goals from range this season. The concerns come down to his frame and especially his skating. He lacks footspeed for the higher levels and has awkward skating mechanics that are concerning for his NHL projection where he too often defaults into the 10-2 skating style, overly relying on his edgework. He doesn’t shy from going to the net, but I wouldn’t call him a high-compete type. He will need to score a lot in the NHL to justify his various risk factors, and while I think he can get games due to his immense offensive talent, I have a hard time seeing him as a long NHL career type given his various risk factors.

"Sure he scores a ton and is gifted offensively, but he's a 10-2 skater instead of a 10:15-1:45 guy."

Getting bogged down by mindless stuff like this is why scouts and draft experts should largely be ignored. So much noise to sift through.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Elite 1C and 1D. Only the two most valuable, hard to acquire positions.

The talent on the wing is legit, though.

I’m going to call this their best draft since 2012.

Thats what 24 and 25 1st rounders are for Glad we didnt make a panic trade yesterday.

 

[EroCaps]

Regardless, it’s a great swing to take in the 2nd round.

Even if it busts I support it in principle.

I’ve heard Zuccarello on Cristall. His playmaking ability is top 3-5 in this draft. The tape is phenomenal.

 

[Langway]

The big key with Cristall is getting those man legs as he said. If he puts in that work, gets stocky and adds some greasiness to his game he could be a star. I don't know if he'll ever really add that weasel type agitation that some smaller guys play with. I don't know that he has that sort of chip on his shoulder. But all of the finesse ability is there. Put him with skilled players and he'll make plays. Outside of strength his off puck compete also needs to level up. But he's 18. This is a marathon, not a sprint.

You're not drafting players for next year or the year after so it's about projection. 2-5 years from now if he puts in the work he could be a star offensive talent. All up to him in how great he wants to be because the IQ/skill combo is next level without question.

 

[Carlzner]

Should we start a betting pool on when Twabby warms up to Leonard?

Dev Camp? First month of NCAA games? WJC?

He's our first bluechip prospect since Kuzy/Forsberg and one chart does not overrule the highlight tapes and scouting reports. What a player.

 

[RedRocking]

Washington Capitals 2023 NHL Draft grade

Corey Pronman evaluates the Capitals' picks at the 2023 NHL Draft.

theathletic.com

"Sure he scores a ton and is gifted offensively, but he's a 10-2 skater instead of a 10:15-1:45 guy."

Getting bogged down by mindless stuff like this is why scouts and draft experts should largely be ignored. So much noise to sift through.

Tell me you’ve never been around the game of hockey without telling me yada yada

EDIT to explain: 10-2 is a basic skating technique, open hips/open feet. You see Crosby use it a lot as he rotates down low. It’s a valid criticism that a guy is relying too much on this type of edgework over moving his feet.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

When was the last time the Caps obviously drafted BPA for rds1-2?

2009 we got Mojo and Orlov with late picks. Crazy we traded them both last season for the next run.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Here's TSLH's *extensive* scouting report for Cristall, for anyone interested. It doesn't feature fancy stats or charts (it's much more eye-test oriented), but the person watched him a lot. It's... not glowing. But whatever!

Spoiler: TSLN Report

Andrew Cristall:

Cristall is quite possibly one of the greatest enigmas of the entire 2023 draft. Appearing inside several top 5 throughout the season, he was also ranked towards the end of the first round by an equivalent number of people. If his talent does not leave anyone perplexed, his efficiency on the ice, leaves many uncertain.

Cristall is first and foremost an offensive player who advocates a spectacular and ‘Fancy’ style of play. His puck handling is excellent and easily rivals the best in this draft. That being said, he too often fell for me into the category of players who bring flash, but lack substance. I detect in him a certain lack of maturity in this regard when he tries to display all his abilities, without necessarily choosing the opportune moments.

It happens regularly to see Cristall bait the first player towards him and manage to beat him with a deke, the problem is that he will skate directly into the 2nd player and lose the puck. Although his handling of the puck is excellent, his plays often do not materialize.

Often within a quality, one can observe other attributes of the player that come to work in conjunction with the primary asset. In the case of Cristall, I have not often seen in his handling of the puck an ability to adapt to the pressure that has arisen on him. The vast majority of the time, he will take advantage of junior defensemen who will play the puck rather than the body. For me, he doesn’t have the explosion in his lateral skating stride to avoid the big defensemen in the NHL who will play the body instead.

When I talk about inefficiency and profusion of turnovers, here is an example:

In overtime, Kelowna has a power play (4 against 3), Cristall is at the top of the left circles with the puck.

He will look to fake a shot, change his angle to the outside and maraud with the puck, all that to end up nailed in the corner of the rink by the defender.

All this while he had all the space and time in the world !

Cristall’s playmaking talents are often sold as the main draw of his offensive game, yet that’s not what I’ve observed over the season.

Of course, he shows good vision and is able to orchestrate some good offensive sequences, but for me, the frequency of these plays does not manage to compensate for the number of turnovers he commits.

He is dangerous on the power plays when he moves in possession of the puck since he can shoot from anywhere, he draws defensive coverage on him.

Similar to what was apparent with his puck handling, Cristall sometimes has difficulty properly gauging when the pressure is closing on his passing options, it has happened time and time again to see him pass to a teammate he believed to be alone to finally see that he wasn’t.

I personally find him more dangerous as a shooter. His wrist shot is quite impressive. The puck hits the target with great velocity.

The quality of his hands comes out a lot in the way he uses his shot, he is able to raise the puck from the backhand, even being very close to the goalkeeper. It remains, however, when he wins the center of the ice that he is at his most dangerous. It is mainly on the powerplay that he will be able to take advantage of a static defensive coverage, we see him exuding confidence and challenging his opponents. He has the puck handling as well as the passing options at his disposal to sell his intentions to his opponents and that’s why he is so dangerous.

Unfortunately, Cristall was playing on the left on the power play, being left-handed himself, he did not have the luxury of being able to win the center of the offensive zone on his forehand. He has, however, developed a kind of shot all his own, as he will sell the wrist shot from the left side, then change the angle to the outside, step to the side and unleash a shot without having the defenseman in front of him to block the shot. What is impressive is how good the shot is despite the fact that he is far from an ideal body position to make such a shot. Cristall’s balance on his skates is still impressive.

He uses this kind of shot quite regularly, the problem is that even if it’s impressive, he changes his angle to go outside rather than to attack inside and also, in the train of thought that with his hands, when it works, it’s taking advantage of a cheating junior goaltender. I highly doubt that will work in the NHL.

Cristall’s decision-making seems to be a constant that emerges within each of his individual abilities. I’ve scratched my head several times seeing some of his plays, not to mention some execution errors on a few trivial plays.

He is the typical case of a player who tries to do too much and mismanages his risk-taking, for example, going in front of his net with the puck when he already has a player chasing him. He plays quite individually.

One thing that constantly resurfaces with Cristall as well is that he constantly needs to slow down the play when he wins the offensive zone. This causes some concerns as to whether he can be as good offensively when the game is played at a high pace. Also, he doesn’t have the physical strength to protect the puck and he doesn’t have the acceleration in his skating to draw a player in one direction and explode in another.

Not only does Cristall have to slow down the game, he also has this annoying habit of constantly turning his back to the play when he has the puck. He does this kind of play to assess if he doesn’t have any options that come up in the 2nd wave, but the number of times that translates into a turnover….

We have an example here

(Cristall is in white at the top of the screen, in possession of the puck)

The worst thing is that just before, he had a clean look to send his teammate on a breakaway !

It is a play that he performs several times per game!

Even in the neutral zone when he has the puck with the other team backchecking hard, he has to slow down the play, navigate, handle the puck, to finally pass it out of reach to a teammate or send the puck in an open-space in the offensive zone while his teammates had to slow down to avoid being offside. The worst thing is that it happened several times to see Cristall do this kind of play and stop skating afterwards.

This is also an aspect of his game in which he has been very inconsistent and which also raises concerns, his involvement and his work ethic.

At his best, he plays with a chip on his shoulder, looks hungry, backcheck and finishes his checks. But on other nights, his compete-level is just appalling. He’s nowhere to be found in the defensive zone, cheats offensively and if you give him a pass that’s a little out of reach, he doesn’t even skate to chase the puck. His defensive game is often non-existent.

It is not only defensively that Cristall’s involvement left something to be desired during the season, his desire to engage the body was also one.

There is an example here: the opposing team loses control of the puck in the neutral zone and one of Cristall’s teammate goes to recover the puck. Cristall has the center of the ice and he has an advantageous position on the defenseman. The interior is conceded to him and he could get a very good chance to score.

Instead, he looks right away to get to the other side behind the defender.

He could have physically competed for a chance, but he didn’t. Of course going to huddle behind the defender for a 2 on 1 was not a bad idea, it even shows the player’s awareness of his own weaknesses (acceleration and physical strength), which I myself consider to be a quality. But in this case, the play closed on him and he was never a viable passing option, and this is just one of many examples of similar plays.

It’s very common that when he skates to the corner with the puck, he just sends the puck towards the net, simply losing possession for his team.

As for his skating, Cristall moves well overall, but for a player of his size, he lacks separation speed.

I don’t really like to see him as an option in transition since he doesn’t have that necessary speed and also because he slows down the game too often and plays in an individualistic way.

Cristall demonstrates good agility on the ice, we often see him using the ’10-2′ technique where he skates heel-to-heel to make space and to mask his intentions. The problem is that in junior he is given more space than he will get in the NHL and he does not have the physical strength to protect the puck with his body.

The analysis may seem quite scathing to some, but it should be noted that I have no personal agenda, I only share what I observe in my viewing. I agree that Cristall has quite a talent and he definitely has the ability to make those who rank him too low look bad. That being said, by virtue of all the questions I have about his game, I can hardly see myself recommending his selection to my general manager. A player’s faults are to be taken into consideration, and in the case of Cristall, we are not at a single flaw to determine his eventual success in the NHL or not, there is simply too much variable in the equation to make me rank him too high.

Numbers of games watched: 28

Getting Sprong vibes

 

[HTFN]

Washington Capitals 2023 NHL Draft grade

Corey Pronman evaluates the Capitals' picks at the 2023 NHL Draft.

theathletic.com

"Sure he scores a ton and is gifted offensively, but he's a 10-2 skater instead of a 10:15-1:45 guy."

Getting bogged down by mindless stuff like this is why scouts and draft experts should largely be ignored. So much noise to sift through.

That.... a real thing though. Hell, I noticed it myself watching the tape and it's a little important because at his size if he can't keep getting separation with it at the NHL level he's going to suddenly be a lot easier to take off the puck.

When Jeff Skinner is getting completely shut down it's a similar thing

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[Brian23]

Should we start a betting pool on when Twabby warms up to Leonard?

I feel like Twabby and I have mostly been on the same page. The issue isn't that anyone thinks Leonard is going to be a bad player, more just that we don't know if he's got the ceiling or any elite skill to really justify his draft position. If he turns into a TJ Oshie? Probably worth the pick (though, keep in mind Oshie was the 24th overall pick, and I couldn't find any scouting reports to really compare them both as prospects). But if he's just an Eller type player? Not really worth it.

I kinda expect him to have a really long career, probably as a middle 6 guy who maybe puts up .5ppg a year. That's not an awful thing, but it's certainly not a home run that I wanted/expected for this pick.

That.... a real thing though. Hell, I noticed it myself watching the tape and it's a little important because at his size if he can't keep getting separation with it at the NHL level he's going to suddenly be a lot easier to take off the puck.

When Jeff Skinner is getting completely shut down it's a similar thing

To be fair, at least for any Capital prospect, skating is about the last thing I really care about at all. The team has at least one absolute rock of a development in that they've always been able to make dudes better skaters.

I will bang the table and point out how shit Wilson was when he first arrived vs. what he's like today. I remember his first few games and the man looked like he was running on sand. Now he's a gazelle.