Kevin Musto
Hard for Bedard
- Feb 16, 2018
- 22,587
- 29,265
This is generational overflow. I need you all to understand.
speaking of, their track record with drafting players who Captain a WJC team is also sweet, can't wait for Cam Allen to become a monsterWe’ve had pretty good history with clutch American national team players.
Help me out. You keep saying there were better options available, but you've really keyed in on Benson. If ONE guy in your ranking was higher than the guy they picked, how does your grade drop from A+ to C+?
I'm with you on Benson. I personally would take Leonard first, but it's purely a risk averse opinion for me. I'm not down on small players at all, but what concerns me about Benson's size is how he wields it. Because he's not super elite in any one category, the increased snarl, closer quarters, and speed of the NHL game, the NHL could overwhelm a portion of what makes him special. You see him maneuver in tight spaces now that he simply won't be able to in the NHL without someone putting a shoulder in his chest. NHL top lines don't play against very many pylons.
I think it's likely he grows with the competition and becomes a star regardless, but if the comp is Leonard, I want the pro body and the higher floor. Give me the 55-60 point guy that will play in all situations -- that kind of versatility is extremely rare and valuable -- over the guy that might put up 20 more points but little else. Contrary to what you've said, players like Leo's comps are NOT available in free agency every year, and "stars" aren't measured on boxcars alone.
Still, there'd have to be like 4 guys the Caps should have taken ahead of Leonard to justify a full two-grade drop. Feels like hyperbole to me otherwise. I can only maybe point to Benson, and that still feels iffy to me. Who else did you have higher?
Except for the Arizona Coyotes staff, who knows what's up with them.The other thing to consider is that the best people qualified to make a list at all are NHL scouts and execs.
I will try to address the rest of these posts when I get a chance. Sorry for the delay!
100% this. Some guys get dinged for skating when the issue is far more awareness-related. So it's not that he can't make the quick cuts, it's that he's not reading the play and didn't see that the quick cut was necessary.
So it's a spectrum between Awareness and Skating Mechanics. Awareness is far more innate and more difficult to correct. Mechanics can be taught and/or overcome. Oshie is a dogshit skater, but it's never appeared to me that better skating would have made him significantly better overall. He reads and feels the game at an elite level, definitely understands goalie tendencies like few others, and simply isn't fast enough for more elegant and efficient skating to matter all that much.
Cristall's skating issues are 100% mechanical. He does have the kind of wheels where it matters, however, so it is something he needs to work on. His offensive awareness isn't something anyone needs to worry about. He sees the game marvelously.
I would have taken Benson, Dvorsky, Perreault, and Dragicevic. Also Cristall but since they got him anyways I won't hold that one against them!
So do at least 25 or so other teams.We still need the franchise player though. The Messiah. Heir to the (Ov's) Empire.
But imagine Oshie's motor and ability with Kuzy's skating. SWOOON....Skating is less of a concern when you’ve got A+ hockey IQ and play making ability.
I’d wager he never developed that part of his game because it was never needed.
There were quite a few posts in his prospect thread about how he acts as the “Center” of that line in all aspects except face offs, and that he’s played pure center in the past.Bold prediction: Leonard will be our 1C in 3 years and in 5 years he will be a beast/stud and the pick will be considered one of the best in the top15.
I'm basing this purely on what I hope happens.
That’s LeonardBut imagine Oshie's motor and ability with Kuzy's skating. SWOOON....
There were quite a few posts in his prospect thread about how he acts as the “Center” of that line in all aspects except face offs, and that he’s played pure center in the past.
Round 7, Pick 206 - Antoine Keller
Grade: ????
Yeah, no clue. I like picking at least one goalie in every draft (presuming you have close to a full compliment of picks). But I didn't know this guy existed before today. I guess it's at least a clever move to grow the French fanbase.
Bold prediction: Leonard will be our 1C in 3 years and in 5 years he will be a beast/stud and the pick will be considered one of the best in the top15.
I'm basing this purely on what I hope happens.
If you read that like it was a focus I don't really know what to tell you, it didn't seem that way to me. Just seemed like an element that should be mentioned when talking about how he projects.
We're not all the way at odds here, I like the pick a lot, but it would hardly be the first CHL producer who didn't have the full variety of tools needed to make it all the way to the NHL and there's probably something beyond size that kept him out of the first round.
You live in a linear statistical world and it's no surprise that it will always be "don't ask how, ask how many" there but it doesn't devalue scouts making observations about how a player plays and how it will translate. He's not exceptionally fast or wildly agile, but he has good edges. If he can make that keep working for him or get a little quicker (man legs) it won't matter, but if he can't he'll have to adjust and that's not something you can project with rate stats on a graph.
When you open up and commit to an edge like that your center of gravity is way more vulnerable to disruption. At the NHL level with bigger bodies and great lateral skaters, the potential for that is a lot higher and the space closes quickly so skating can absolutely put a limit on a player who performs well right now.
NHLe doesn’t, but there are analytics that do. Relative stats, WOWY (with or without you), and Spider stats are all designed to capture the effect of individual players on their line mates (or vice versa).And in that discussion there was mention of how he helped elevate Moore's play/production when Moore moved up to that line.
Not sure if the fancy stats can capture that kind non-linear, esoteric subtle effect one player can have on another, or a whole team. Spark plug.
There are at least 96 players in the league (32x3) that are guaranteed first liners. If the #8 pick in a deep draft isn't able to make it into that group then it should be considered a huge failure on the part of the scouts and the team's ability to develop talent.Round 1, Pick 8 - Ryan Leonard
I think I have somewhat lower expectations of the typical performance of a #8 pick than some other posters around here, so I'm not going to be too upset if Leonard ends up as a 20G/40P 2nd line winger with some hustle and grit to his game. I think the odds are better that he ends up more as a complimentary or secondary piece are greater than him being a primary driver or guaranteed first liner.
No? It's not even that it's bad, it's just pretty average and can be offset by great senses. He's got them compared to his peers now, that won't be a guarantee as peers get better and the pool gets wider.
Fact is at his size if you can't keep getting separation by being shifty it won't matter how sweet your hands are, you'll be smothered and forced to get rid of the puck. How shifty he is is going to, well... depend on his skating.
If it were really that simple wouldn't he just get drafted in the top 10, or at least in the first round?
Its very very simple actually and its one thing where you really dont need a chart to make case. Its hockey basics.
You just cant get to use your shiny attributes in hockey if you dont keep up with the skates. Im not saying you have to better or even as good as others, but you have to be able to keep up.
And for Cristall, he even isnt that bad of a skater. Its a bit overblown. Im sure he can make the developement if he puts the effort there, and why wouldnt he. Im noting this in general.
Sure…..especially if like Fehr in 2003 (#18), Getzlaf 19, Burns 20, Kesler 23, Richards 24, Perry 28, Bergeron 45, Weber 49….everything turned to gold around him…There are at least 96 players in the league (32x3) that are guaranteed first liners. If the #8 pick in a deep draft isn't able to make it into that group then it should be considered a huge failure on the part of the scouts and the team's ability to develop talent.
And if my #8 pick in a deep draft turned into a 20 goal / 40 point guy I'd be pretty unhappy with the selection.
But only time will tell. It's going to be interesting (I misspelled insufferable) around here in future years, that much IS guaranteed!
There are at least 96 players in the league (32x3) that are guaranteed first liners. If the #8 pick in a deep draft isn't able to make it into that group then it should be considered a huge failure on the part of the scouts and the team's ability to develop talent.
They said that about Tom Wilson too, that his hint of offensive potential was just playing playoff hockey against little children. Then he developed hands and... I'm not going to check this one but I feel pretty sure he's outproduced his OHL stats in the NHL, or at least matched it when it "should have" been diminished.