GDT: 2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread

[blindsideheadshot]

To be fair, at least for any Capital prospect, skating is about the last thing I really care about at all. The team has at least one absolute rock of a development in that they've always been able to make dudes better skaters.

I will bang the table and point out how shit Wilson was when he first arrived vs. what he's like today. I remember his first few games and the man looked like he was running on sand. Now he's a gazelle.

Wendy effin Marco, man.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Wendy effin Marco, man.

Even when I was playing as a kid….the best power skating coach at my rink was a woman …..pretty neat/interesting.

 

[Jags]

When was the last time the Caps obviously drafted BPA for rds1-2?

Last year.

Props to those of you who actually know who to draft in these later rounds. I have a decent idea of the consensus for round 1 and maybe the 1st half of round 2, but after that, no idea. How do y'all track all these prospects?

I watch a stooooopid amount of hockey, and I only feel confident about the first couple rounds. I know the names after that and can tell you what I've seen, but it gets super hard for me to rank. It really needs to be a full-time job for A LOT of people to have a staff that crushes it every year. It's a ton of info.

 

[Carlzner]

The issue isn't that anyone thinks Leonard is going to be a bad player, more just that we don't know if he's got the ceiling or any elite skill to really justify his draft position. If he turns into a TJ Oshie? Probably worth the pick (though, keep in mind Oshie was the 24th overall pick, and I couldn't find any scouting reports to really compare them both as prospects). But if he's just an Eller type player? Not really worth it.

This just isn’t the case though. He very clearly does have the elite offensive skill and was almost universally ranked right outside the top 4.

One chart and bozos like Bucci and Weekes talking about compete level doesn’t change that.

 

[g00n]

Last year.

Good point. I don't remember who else was available for each pick and they started at pick 20, but they definitely didn't reach and go off the board.

Seems like for many years before that they'd "draft for need" instead of BPA, or they'd outsmart themselves and pick someone way out of turn.

 

[twabby]

That.... a real thing though. Hell, I noticed it myself watching the tape and it's a little important because at his size if he can't keep getting separation with it at the NHL level he's going to suddenly be a lot easier to take off the puck.

When Jeff Skinner is getting completely shut down it's a similar thing

I’m not a skater (ice is too slippery for me) but I think I’m not making my point well enough.

My point is I don’t care if his skating is a little funky if he scores a lot. I think focusing on a guy's skating style while downplaying his output is stupid. I don't think there's a strong case to be made that Cristall's skating is going to affect how impactful he is at the NHL level any more than is already baked into his current scoring output. And his current scoring impact indicates a top 10 talent. Hence the A+ ranking at #40.

Similarly, all of Leonard's qualities are probably already baked into his scoring output, which indicates a top 15-20 talent. He's good, but I think there were better options available. Hence the C+ ranking I gave that pick. They stayed within reason and got a guy who might enter the lineup quicker than others. That makes sense for their current timeline, so I could be convinced to move the C+ (slightly above average pick) to a B- (a little above average pick).

 

[Roshi]

I’m not a skater (ice is too slippery for me) but I think I’m not making my point well enough.

My point is I don’t care if his skating is a little funky if he scores a lot. I think focusing on a guy's skating style while downplaying his output is stupid. I don't think there's a strong case to be made that Cristall's skating is going to affect how impactful he is at the NHL level. His skating deficiencies are probably already baked into his current scoring output.

Of course it affects. The level of competence in NHL versus the juniors is absolutely crushing. In juniors you can dominate with just one attribute, but you cant make that transition to NHL if everyone else is much ahead of you in others. And skating is one of the most important attributes there is.

You just cant dangle and make apples if you cant skate with the NHL talent. If you’ve ever played backyard hockey with someone who actually skates pro level, while you dont, you get the picture better.

But the good thing is that skating is very teachable and its a lot easier to improve in that part, than it would be for hockey vision or offensive instincts.

So im very happy with Cristall from 2nd round. He has the upside. But putting him ahead of Leonard today is just not right and the charts should be ashamed of themselves for making that stuff up.

 

[Carlzner]

It’s getting comical. The algorithm clearly has no clue how to analyze a team that plays vastly different levels of competition throughout the year.

 

[twabby]

Of course it affects. The level of competence in NHL versus the juniors is absolutely crushing. In juniors you can dominate with just one attribute, but you cant make that transition to NHL if everyone else is much ahead of you in others. And skating is one of the most important attributes there is.

You just cant dangle and make apples if you cant skate with the NHL talent.

But the good thing is that skating is very teachable and its a lot easier to improve in that part, than it would be for hockey vision or offensive instincts.

So im very happy with Cristall from 2nd round. He has the upside. But putting him ahead of Leonard today is just not right and the charts should be ashamed of themselves for making that stuff up.

But again, if his skating is so bad then wouldn't he have some less than stellar production in the WHL?

The case needs to be made that his poor skating is going to disproportionately affect his NHL impact compared to other attributes where he shines, and that case hasn't really been made. I suspect it's because that case can't be made.

 

[HTFN]

I’m not a skater (ice is too slippery for me) but I think I’m not making my point well enough.

My point is I don’t care if his skating is a little funky if he scores a lot. I think focusing on a guy's skating style while downplaying his output is stupid. I don't think there's a strong case to be made that Cristall's skating is going to affect how impactful he is at the NHL level any more than is already baked into his current scoring output. And his current scoring impact indicates a top 10 talent.

If you read that like it was a focus I don't really know what to tell you, it didn't seem that way to me. Just seemed like an element that should be mentioned when talking about how he projects.

We're not all the way at odds here, I like the pick a lot, but it would hardly be the first CHL producer who didn't have the full variety of tools needed to make it all the way to the NHL and there's probably something beyond size that kept him out of the first round.

You live in a linear statistical world and it's no surprise that it will always be "don't ask how, ask how many" there but it doesn't devalue scouts making observations about how a player plays and how it will translate. He's not exceptionally fast or wildly agile, but he has good edges. If he can make that keep working for him or get a little quicker (man legs) it won't matter, but if he can't he'll have to adjust and that's not something you can project with rate stats on a graph.

When you open up and commit to an edge like that your center of gravity is way more vulnerable to disruption. At the NHL level with bigger bodies and great lateral skaters, the potential for that is a lot higher and the space closes quickly so skating can absolutely put a limit on a player who performs well right now.

 

[Jags]

Good point. I don't remember who else was available for each pick and they started at pick 20, but they definitely didn't reach and go off the board.

Seems like for many years before that they'd "draft for need" instead of BPA, or they'd outsmart themselves and pick someone way out of turn.

Totally agree. BPA is way more important when you're drafting late, then crucial as you get past the first round. Last year felt like a sea change for us in that regard, and I think they did well this year, too.

The other thing to consider is that the best people qualified to make a list at all are NHL scouts and execs. People from other leagues are biased, pundits don't know shit because they rightfully spend all of their time covering the only league most people care about, and all the prognostication sites with their "expert rankings" are mostly horseshit but at least less biased.

This is why I don't get too involved in pre-draft discussions, because most people on the street and in forums are operating off rankings I don't believe in without seeing really any players actually play. I see tons of these guys play, have lots of feelings about how good I think they are, but find it impossible to weigh a standout in this league versus that one.

Take "played against children" and "playing against adults," for example. Forum posters love this comp, and it's dodgy. The guys that get high rankings versus "children" are playing against the best "children" in the world, all champing at the bit to make it to the next level and get where they are via the best talent evaluators on the planet.

The adult leagues that have kids running around have ridiculous mixtures of talent in their adult ranks, from NHL hopefuls to that guy you'd swear was in your beer league last year. This means WAY less than people think. I only really think it matters when a kid plays v. adults when you see him take a thumping and see how he responds. That he's in that situation at all says a lot about his trajectory elsewise.

So on draft day you have to trust your team's staff, for better or worse. There are 31 other staffs, but they don't share info, so your scout team is a lot like your actual NHL team that way. About a dozen respectable news outlets put out "expert" rankings, and none of them have a scintilla of the first-person insight NHL scout teams do. I'm sure they have access to scouts off the record, but those people are at least equally interested in delivering misinformation to reporters as they are good information. All other info comes from hugely biased sources.

So we're all just along for the ride. I GREATLY appreciate people in forums like this that appear to also do the deep dive on young players, whether it's for their exhaustive knowledge and honest interpretive insight (@Langway), gathering and distilling stats and opinions so I don't have to (@twabby), or just the knowledge with unfiltered opinions, whether I agree (@Kalopsia) or not (@Hivemind a lot of the time, but I appreciate his perspective regardless).

Having free access to a resource like this forum makes me feel better about just watching way more hockey than is probably healthy. Let them do the work.

Thanks for making draft days better, HFCaps...

 

[HTFN]

But again, if his skating is so bad then wouldn't he have some less than stellar production in the WHL?

The case needs to be made that his poor skating is going to disproportionately affect his NHL impact compared to other attributes where he shines, and that case hasn't really been made. I suspect it's because that case can't be made.

No? It's not even that it's bad, it's just pretty average and can be offset by great senses. He's got them compared to his peers now, that won't be a guarantee as peers get better and the pool gets wider.

Fact is at his size if you can't keep getting separation by being shifty it won't matter how sweet your hands are, you'll be smothered and forced to get rid of the puck. How shifty he is is going to, well... depend on his skating.

If it were really that simple wouldn't he just get drafted in the top 10, or at least in the first round?

 

[Roshi]

But again, if his skating is so bad then wouldn't he have some less than stellar production in the WHL?

The case needs to be made that his poor skating is going to disproportionately affect his NHL impact compared to other attributes where he shines, and that case hasn't really been made. I suspect it's because that case can't be made.

Its very very simple actually and its one thing where you really dont need a chart to make case. Its hockey basics.

You just cant get to use your shiny attributes in hockey if you dont keep up with the skates. Im not saying you have to better or even as good as others, but you have to be able to keep up.

And for Cristall, he even isnt that bad of a skater. Its a bit overblown. Im sure he can make the developement if he puts the effort there, and why wouldnt he. Im noting this in general.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

I'm pretty happy with this draft. The forward crop looks better for the future and we have the guys from previous drafts that won in Hershey. People need to be patient.

 

[HTFN]

Its very very simple actually and its one thing where you really dont need a chart to make case. Its hockey basics.

You just cant get to use your shiny attributes in hockey if you dont keep up with the skates. Im not saying you have to better or even as good as others, but you have to be able to keep up.

And for Cristall, he even isnt that bad of a skater. Its a bit overblown. Im sure he can make the developement if he puts the effort there, and why wouldnt he. Im noting this in general.

His edgework is good, it's his top speed and burst that just seem sort of okay. If they can get more acceleration out of him I don't think it'll be a problem but.... shit, I'd love to know what Mike Comrie's "projected star rating" would have been.

It's just something to work on and the "10-2 skating" comment that got twabby all flustered is totally part of that. If you're on the edges all the time and don't stay ahead of everyone else mentally they're gonna knock you off plays. As of right now it just remains to be seen but again, there's a reason guys fall out of the first round when they're producing and it's usually a missing tool.

 

[Jags]

Similarly, all of Leonard's qualities are probably already baked into his scoring output, which indicates a top 15-20 talent. He's good, but I think there were better options available. Hence the C+ ranking I gave that pick.

Help me out. You keep saying there were better options available, but you've really keyed in on Benson. If ONE guy in your ranking was higher than the guy they picked, how does your grade drop from A+ to C+?

I'm with you on Benson. I personally would take Leonard first, but it's purely a risk averse opinion for me. I'm not down on small players at all, but what concerns me about Benson's size is how he wields it. Because he's not super elite in any one category, the increased snarl, closer quarters, and speed of the NHL game, the NHL could overwhelm a portion of what makes him special. You see him maneuver in tight spaces now that he simply won't be able to in the NHL without someone putting a shoulder in his chest. NHL top lines don't play against very many pylons.

I think it's likely he grows with the competition and becomes a star regardless, but if the comp is Leonard, I want the pro body and the higher floor. Give me the 55-60 point guy that will play in all situations -- that kind of versatility is extremely rare and valuable -- over the guy that might put up 20 more points but little else. Contrary to what you've said, players like Leo's comps are NOT available in free agency every year, and "stars" aren't measured on boxcars alone.

Still, there'd have to be like 4 guys the Caps should have taken ahead of Leonard to justify a full two-grade drop. Feels like hyperbole to me otherwise. I can only maybe point to Benson, and that still feels iffy to me. Who else did you have higher?

 

[Hivemind]

or just the knowledge with unfiltered opinions, whether I agree (@Kalopsia) or not (@Hivemind a lot of the time, but I appreciate his perspective regardless).

I feel like @Kalopsia and I agree on most things, though

 

[ChaosLord]

I'm pretty happy with this draft. The forward crop looks better for the future and we have the guys from previous drafts that won in Hershey. People need to be patient.

We still need the franchise player though. The Messiah. Heir to the (Ov's) Empire.

 

[HTFN]

Did a quick check since Yamamoto was just traded for nothing and that's a guy with a 90+ point draft year season and like 40+ goals who shared a lot of Cristall's best traits and also had top end speed and skating. Look, I want every Caps draft pick to develop but if we're talking about Cristall being "arguably better" than Leonard... come on now.

 

[HTFN]

Similarly, all of Leonard's qualities are probably already baked into his scoring output, which indicates a top 15-20 talent. He's good, but I think there were better options available. Hence the C+ ranking I gave that pick. They stayed within reason and got a guy who might enter the lineup quicker than others. That makes sense for their current timeline, so I could be convinced to move the C+ (slightly above average pick) to a B- (a little above average pick).

They said that about Tom Wilson too, that his hint of offensive potential was just playing playoff hockey against little children. Then he developed hands and... I'm not going to check this one but I feel pretty sure he's outproduced his OHL stats in the NHL, or at least matched it when it "should have" been diminished.

 

[RedRocking]

Did a quick check since Yamamoto was just traded for nothing and that's a guy with a 90+ point draft year season and like 40+ goals who shared a lot of Cristall's best traits and also had top end speed and skating. Look, I want every Caps draft pick to develop but if we're talking about Cristall being "arguably better" than Leonard... come on now.

No, don’t put that Yamamoto comp out into the universe! Lol

 

[HTFN]

No, don’t put that Yamamoto comp out into the universe! Lol

It's one of like a million crazy options, anything could happen, these are kids. Johnny Gaudreau isn't an elite skater either but his brain and hands make it work, and it's not like he was a first round pick either.

Just saying, there are reasons to underestimate and reasons to doubt, and sometimes we won't know how that pans out until later but we don't have to plug our ears and just not notice holes.

 

[Jags]

If you're on the edges all the time and don't stay ahead of everyone else mentally they're gonna knock you off plays.

100% this. Some guys get dinged for skating when the issue is far more awareness-related. So it's not that he can't make the quick cuts, it's that he's not reading the play and didn't see that the quick cut was necessary.

So it's a spectrum between Awareness and Skating Mechanics. Awareness is far more innate and more difficult to correct. Mechanics can be taught and/or overcome. Oshie is a dogshit skater, but it's never appeared to me that better skating would have made him significantly better overall. He reads and feels the game at an elite level, definitely understands goalie tendencies like few others, and simply isn't fast enough for more elegant and efficient skating to matter all that much.

Cristall's skating issues are 100% mechanical. He does have the kind of wheels where it matters, however, so it is something he needs to work on. His offensive awareness isn't something anyone needs to worry about. He sees the game marvelously.

 

[Jags]

I feel like @Kalopsia and I agree on most things, though

And I feel like I agree with you most of the time. But when we disagree, we REALLY disagree.

I'm not much of a "me too" poster; I only speak up when I have something to say (and then I overdo it). So you prolly don't "hear" me agree with you as much as you should.

Still, just like in real life on issues far more important than hockey, I enjoy talking with people I disagree with more. I like to learn things and I find that's one of the best ways. So this new world where not thinking a person that disagrees with you is automatically a Nazi? Not loving that so much.

I appreciate you, Hive. You're not a Nazi.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

We’ve had pretty good history with clutch American national team players.