GDT: 2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread

[CapitalsCupReality]

I dunno, I wasn't as big a fan of Orpik as the rest of you. I still remember him getting burned by Nick Bonino in Game 1 vs the Pens in 2017 in the 3rd period, a game that we absolutely DOMINATED and should have won. Orpik could hit, but he was also as slow as molasses. So did we win BECAUSE of him or DESPITE him in 2018, we'll never truly know.

You’re talking one play….his value was so far beyond that. Pittsburgh was so lucky to get his young years…..can’t imagine a 21yr old Orpik on your team….we had him on the last 1/3 of his career….and at least I feel like we were lucky to have him still. His off ice impact was franchise altering IMO.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

RMNB has its value like telling me where I can buy new Caps merchandise or showing me behind the scenes stuff of things I wouldn’t otherwise see like the Hershey Bears Calder Cup celebration. They’re really great at showing a different aspect of the sport.

On the other hand, I can’t think of more than a few people whose opinions on the actual sport of hockey I’d rather hear less than them.

 

[YippieKaey]

That’s a pretty underwhelming group of players. There’s maybe one or two top line/top pairing players in that group. It is a terrible haul for the assets they had.

They could have had Cooley, Nemec, or Wright last year. They could have had Michkov this year. There were multiple reports that Philly offered 7 and 22 for 5 so they could have traded back and maybe still have gotten Reinbacher + someone like Perrault at 22. And they paid a premium for a player in Alex Newhook who struggled in perhaps the best possible situation you could want a prospect to develop in.

Again maybe they get lucky and it works out but the process seems lacking and it feels like they wasted a golden opportunity.

I don't know, they could have made different choices of course but looking at max potential i see an elite two-way center (Suzuki) an elite sniper (Caufield) a good to great huge power forward with skill (Slaf) 2 good playmaking #2 C (Newhook and Dach) a bruising d-man (Xhekaj) a good to great two-way D with offensive skill (Reinbacher) a good two-way D with some snarl (Guhle).

Sure, Cooley and Wright are great and i guess Nemec aswell but seems like they're building a pretty strong two-way team with an edge and they already have a Cooley and a Wright in Caufield and Suzuki.

But obviously, predicting these things isn't even done to a high degree by people doing it for a living so what do i know

 

[crazy8888]

Told my wife word for word what caps org was going to say after drafting Leonard. Didint expect him to still be available, yea yea yea. What a nice way to say we stood with our thumbs up our asses and settled for whatever was available.
I suppose the bright side is we should be pretty competitive again in 2-3 years. Yay. Lets load up on more prospects while the anchors play out their contracts.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

1- we have no idea what was offered or what was being asked
2- we don’t know yet what prospect will be better
3- the Russian may not ever be in the nhl at the same time as Ovie
4- IMO this is a baseless hot take

Agree, we do have no idea either way. We have no idea if they even pursued a deal.

Either way, I do feel mgmt is trying to tow the line between building for the future and competing now which usually doesn’t end well.

With the plan they are pursuing right now, you end up being just bad enough to miss the playoffs and just good enough to not get great draft positioning. It’s a bad strategy. They need to make up their mind on what they are trying to do.

 

[EroCaps]

The only way the Leonard pick isn’t a home run is if Michkov turns out to be a HoFer and that is way tbd.

 

[twabby]

Orpik was a HUGE cog in our cup securement. He would step up early in game 1s and the opposition would dump pucks in after that. Hitting. Yeah we had timely goals from those 3 but physically destroying the opposition leads to goals. The cup is a battle of attrition more than good fortune. Orpik also covered for our 160lb defensemen beautifully and led the team. Ovi and Nick jointly passed the Cup to him - they knew and showed the world.

Willy clobbering Kunitz led to that backbreaking early goal vs Tampa in game 7 that sucked the life out of that arena & team 1 minute in. Willy destroyed Karlsson arguably their best player in game 2 IIRC who was invisible the rest of the series. Oshie vs Vegas game 4 or 5? trucking players that led directly to 2 goals.

"Lenny" fits the mold of the type of player that won us a cup. That Vegas team needed more Ryan Reeves who got benched after a game 1 GWG IIRC he didn't play after that and they lost every game. Who did he knock over in our crease to score... DJoos maybe.

Again the Leonard pick wasn't bad, I just don't think it was optimal. It was an above average pick for the spot they were in. I just think they had a home run available (Benson) and missed out on it. Benson similarly has been praised for his motor and competitiveness, but he also scored more than Leonard.

It's fine. They didn't reach. Go Caps, love da Caps.

 

[RandyHolt]

I dunno, I wasn't as big a fan of Orpik as the rest of you. I still remember him getting burned by Nick Bonino in Game 1 vs the Pens in 2017 in the 3rd period, a game that we absolutely DOMINATED and should have won. Orpik could hit, but he was also as slow as molasses. So did we win BECAUSE of him or DESPITE him in 2018, we'll never truly know.

The opposition gets paid too & even the fastest Dmen get burned. 2017... we can also go back ~30 CONSECUTIVE years and document countless stud defensemen getting burned in our annual May golfing ambitions.

Ovi and Nick jointly passing the cup to him 3rd in line before Oshie DSP Kuzy Holts is my supporting evidence that Orpik was a boss in 2018, and thus forever rest my case.

Back on topic. Lenny seems like a safe pick and was happy to hear he models his game after Tkachuk. IIRC Ovi liked his papa and that is the type of player that puts fans in seats and makes the games fun to watch as we wait 40 years for our next cup.

 

[trick9]

I hope there’s a reason the Caps didn’t trade up with Montreal or Arizona besides lack of testicular fortitude.

I don't think anyone wanted to move down. Hell teams like Chicago and Detroit tried to offer multiple 2nd rounders to move back into the 1st round and nobody baited. Blues apparently tried to move up with their 2 late 1st's, no dice.

This is a draft where it seems that multiple teams wanted to move up. There is a reason why it didn't happen. Nobody wanted to move down.

 

[Kolzilla]

I can’t believe they took Reinbacher, and Price just straight froze up like that: what a blunder lol

I absolutely died laughing when Price didn't even know the dudes last name. Reinbacher didn't looked too thrilled when they finally got his name right either.

 

[Acallabeth]

You're getting all worked up about a kid being a pro and saying the right things.
The Flyers wanted him more and made sure he felt wanted. He pointed that out. If he was drafted by the Capitals, he would say that to become a part of such a great franchise is a dream come true, and how honored he is to follow Ovechkin's footsteps.
It's the Caps who didn't want him that much, not the other way.

 

[Fred22406Capsfan]

No, just about all the players drafted (outside of Bedard), will be years away from playing in the NHL.

Specifically, Leonard is set to go play at Boston College. I imagine he'll spend at least 2-3 years there (if not the entire 4 years) before transitioning to professional hockey, likely spending at least a little time in Hershey along the way.

ETA: The NHL draft is VERY different from either the NBA or NFL, who's draftees generally step in somewhat immediately. If I had to compare it to something, Id compare the NHL draft to MLB in that there is years of development time to come for most of these players.

Thanks, Serial_Derecho. I'm more familiar with the first two you mentioned. The baseball comparison makes sense.

 

[trick9]

I think Reinbacher is a good player but there were better players available. Montreal hasn’t had a 40 goal scorer in 30 years and instead of taking a generational forward prospect they took a guy who projects to be a second pairing defenseman.

Fair point, but i don't really agree. 40 goal scorers are nice, but right now there is one available on the market for what? I think DeBrincat would have moved for a late 1st round pick. It's just a fact that wingers don't have nearly the same value as D's, even if they manage to hit the jackpot. There weren't really a forward available that had as high floor as Reinbacher did.

As for second-pairing defenseman... yeah i don't think so. Sportsnet had his floor at 2nd pairing defenseman, top-pairing potential. Bob McKenzie had him 8th. He's just not a flashy pick because he isn't that electric offensive defenseman, but defensively he blows those guys out of the water at the same age. Plus he does have good offensive potential, just not a PPG potential because he isn't your ideal PPQB.

Also will just drop this in here:

 

[twabby]

Either way, I do feel mgmt is trying to tow the line between building for the future and competing now which usually doesn’t end well.

I think this is what I need to see settled this offseason. Pick a direction and go with it. Retooling seems to be the direction they are choosing, which is perfectly valid. But I want their moves this offseason to be consistent with that direction.

 

[twabby]

For instance I think they need to make a trade for a roster player today in order for me to really think they are aggressively pursuing a retool. I understand not trading the pick yesterday, but no one at #40 is going to help the team for several years or is going to be an elite level talent where you hold onto it. Holding onto both their first and second round picks this year isn't consistent with a retool, it's consistent with a rebuild. And if they are rebuilding, most of their TDL moves like re-signing Jensen and TVR make no sense. Rebuilding teams should be getting something for all of their UFAs and should be weaponizing cap space.

 

[Brian23]

Fair point, but i don't really agree. 40 goal scorers are nice, but right now there is one available on the market for what? I think DeBrincat would have moved for a late 1st round pick. It's just a fact that wingers don't have nearly the same value as D's, even if they manage to hit the jackpot. There weren't really a forward available that had as high floor as Reinbacher did.

As for second-pairing defenseman... yeah i don't think so. Sportsnet had his floor at 2nd pairing defenseman, top-pairing potential. Bob McKenzie had him 8th. He's just not a flashy pick because he isn't that electric offensive defenseman, but defensively he blows those guys out of the water at the same age. Plus he does have good offensive potential, just not a PPG potential because he isn't your ideal PPQB.

Also will just drop this in here:

Where do you find these comparisons? Curious what it says for Leonard.

 

[pman25]

i have the elite prospects draft guide. FWIW they had Leonard ranked 6th. Also notable they had Simashev at 10!

Best available, per their rankings...

13. Sawchyn
19. Cristall
21. Brindley
27. Heidt
28. Fisker Molgaard
29. Perron

Some snippets from Leonard:

 

[Corby78]

The only way the Leonard pick isn’t a home run is if Michkov turns out to be a HoFer and that is way tbd.

You act as if you know we turned him down

 

[twabby]

Where do you find these comparisons? Curious what it says for Leonard.

Those ones are from Byron Bader at Hockey Prospecting. I didn't subscribe to it so I don't have access to everything of his, but Leonard's chart is here (on the left):

The DY comparisons in particular aren't very flattering. Compare that to Zach Benson, who has guys like Mitch Marner, Jason Spezza, Nikita Kucherov, and Aleksander Barkov as comparables:

 

[g00n]

You're getting all worked up about a kid being a pro and saying the right things.
The Flyers wanted him more and made sure he felt wanted. He pointed that out. If he was drafted by the Capitals, he would say that to become a part of such a great franchise is a dream come true, and how honored he is to follow Ovechkin's footsteps.
It's the Caps who didn't want him that much, not the other way.

When was the last time both the player and the FO said the exact same things about getting together and finding a perfect fit and preferring that team?

Your take just ignores what they actually did and said.

 

[Kalopsia]

If i had to guess this is more on AZ than WAS. I’m sure there were discussions. AZ got greedy on what they wanted and as a result lost out on getting more value. With reasonable ask, Caps would have likely moved. Caps have some leverage here as they win with either Michkov falling, Leonard still being available, or Bensen. GMBM knows he wins either way. Without knowing the actual moves, it seems like GMBM played a good game of chess.

Yeah, anyone who's played fantasy sports for a while has encountered those managers who have their own list and they're gonna take the guy at the top of their list no matter what, because they either don't understand or don't care about the value they're leaving on the table by reaching. They just aren't willing to stomach the risk that they trade back or take a guy who's lower on their list but higher on the consensus list and end up missing out on the guy on top of their list. Coyotes management definitely give me vibes of being that guy.

 

[Langway]

Prospect of Interest: The skill and snarl of Ryan Leonard

Ryan Leonard comes with the offensive production and potential of a high-end draft pick, and adds a little snarl for good measure.

www.sportsnet.ca

Official Site of the National Hockey League | NHL.com

The official National Hockey League website including news, rosters, stats, schedules, teams, and video.

www.nhl.com

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

You act as if you know we turned him down

And you act as if you know we pushed hard to get him. No one knows either way. Anything else is speculation.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

For instance I think they need to make a trade for a roster player today in order for me to really think they are aggressively pursuing a retool. I understand not trading the pick yesterday, but no one at #40 is going to help the team for several years or is going to be an elite level talent where you hold onto it. Holding onto both their first and second round picks this year isn't consistent with a retool, it's consistent with a rebuild. And if they are rebuilding, most of their TDL moves like re-signing Jensen and TVR make no sense. Rebuilding teams should be getting something for all of their UFAs and should be weaponizing cap space.

It takes two to tango though, right?

And re-signing Jensen and TvR made sense regardless. They’re not going to tear it down to the studs while Ovi is playing and they weren’t going to sell low or lose them for nothing. Both are very good RHD on good contracts and those will always have value so if this year sucks and they decide to take their medicine then they still have the opportunity to acquire assets for them.

I saw this coming when I said everyone should accept that they’re just going to be kind of crappy for the next two seasons. It’s impossible to compete when your top two centers are replacement level players and no one is going to line up to take them off our hands. Add in Oshie’s decline and Mantha flopping and they need to rebuild at least three positions in the top six; Ovi, Wilson, and Strome are the only top six guys and ideally all of those guys are second liners.

They have the depth, blueline, and goaltending to be a playoff team but their stars are not stars any more and expecting BMac to be able to shed expensive deadweight on the fly and rebuild half of the top six to make them a contender again is setting yourself up for disappointment. I have no doubt that he’s trying to improve the team but this is the price you pay for two decades of competition and for loyalty and there’s no more loyal owner than Ted Leonsis.

 

[pman25]

Bader's tools are neat but also he gets it wrong a lot. He admits it, sometimes, but I get a little anoyed now by Bader and Patrick Bacon. It's a good tool to have but NHLe models can make you look dumb. Here he is on Stutzle, who is the only star from the 2020 draft.