GDT: 2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread

[EroCaps]

Oliver Moore or Andrew Cristall if they stay at 8.

 

[YippieKaey]

Yeah Moore could be great for this team. Great speed and hustle which we sorely need.

 

[pman25]

The criticism with Moore is that he hasn’t used his linemates as well as he could have. Great hustle, skating, etc but maybe the IQ isn’t totally there to maximize the use of his linemates.

I can see the Larkin comps but also could easily just see him turning into a bottom six energy winger type of guy. I think he’s just outside the top 10. I like both Leonard and Barlow over him

 

[Langway]

I think Moore sticks up the middle due to skating and positional sense if nothing else. Maybe he's more similar to a Stephenson or RNH in terms of style/build ultimately but that's still pretty valuable, particularly for an older team with such glaring long-term center questions. He hasn't been quite as productive the past couple months despite IINM better quality linemates (albeit younger) but we'll see what the U18s have in store. One of the biggest areas this team needs to address are players that capably track all over the ice, fill in gaps as a two-way presences and push pace back the other way. It's what helps define play-driving capacity. Moore brings that arguably as well as anyone outside the top four, esp. up the middle. At least from a tools and ceiling standpoint.

Smith is a strong small area player but defense and top gear are current limitations that may be even tougher to stay at center. There's a lot of upside so you'd still take the plunge pretty early either way. Leonard is a relatively clean eval and also can be a play driver. I don't know how dynamic a playmaker he'll be but as a north/south power winger he mostly does it all. Barlow currently is not quite as fluid as you'd like IMO. It's not bad at the junior level. His instincts are sound as a two-way player but I don't think it projects great without real strides. It may limit just how effective he can be finding angles/lanes to finish at the next level. Maybe he figures it out or is able to be crafty enough otherwise but it's a question as to his upside. They do need goal-scoring but it's not like that's all they need. From a team success standpoint there are probably other leading areas that would act as better force-multipliers.

I'd bank mainly on skating, four-way mobility, positional sense and the ability to manipulate defenses as keys for adding more consistency in all facets. In time I think if a player is able to drive play first and foremost then more refined aspects of skilled execution can be improved to an extent due to being such a heavily involved player. Such players that are always in the guts of the play and involved are what drives teams. It's not just a one individual matter, of course, but this team doesn't have arguably anyone in the top six that's consistently always in the thick of the play. If they were to add another somewhat flimsy prospect that may figure to struggle to be consistently involved due to either competitiveness or skating it's probably a big missed opportunity. They don't need to add a bunch of Chimeras but adding high-end athleticism to an aging bunch seems like a must, all the better if also positionally sound enough to bring two-way tonesetting that's able to offload more of the burden this bunch may no longer be able to handle.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Michkov's biggest issue is being pretty short. He's fairly direct and efficient on the puck. Creative but not so much cute or fancy for the sake of it. Defense could be an issue to some extent given the lack of size. But he's a winger so you're adding him for the gamebreaking offense anyway.

It's been 20 years since a defenseman didn't go top 6 IINM. You wonder if a team won't talk themselves into Reinbacher early, pushing someone else down. He'll be at the World Championships competing against men. He put up historically strong production as a DY player in the Swiss league. Big right shot D. Any of the #5-7 teams could be a fit. So if not Michkov the Caps may have a shot at Smith, Benson or Moore. I wonder if Benson doesn't return in the WHL playoffs for Winnipeg if it may seed enough doubt for teams to opt elsewhere and for him to slide.

At some point teams are going to realize that short dudes can play and they should stop overlooking them, especially if the production is there in the junior ranks. Cole Caufield, Brayden Point, Cam Atkinson, Alex DeBrincat, Johnny Gaudreau, Brad Marchand, Torey Krug, Conor Sheary, Yanni Gourde, Brendan Gallagher, Jared Spurgeon, Tyler Johnson, Viktor Arvidsson… all 5’9” or shorter. Almost all fell in the draft or went undrafted mainly due to their size. Michkov is listed at 5’10”. If Michkov slips to 8 or 9 because the NHL thinks short kings can’t play then the Caps should be tripping over themselves getting to the podium to draft him.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

At some point teams are going to realize that short dudes can play and they should stop overlooking them, especially if the production is there in the junior ranks. Cole Caufield, Brayden Point, Cam Atkinson, Alex DeBrincat, Johnny Gaudreau, Brad Marchand, Torey Krug, Conor Sheary, Yanni Gourde, Brendan Gallagher, Jared Spurgeon, Tyler Johnson, Viktor Arvidsson… all 5’9” or shorter. Almost all fell in the draft or went undrafted mainly due to their size. Michkov is listed at 5’10”. If Michkov slips to 8 or 9 because the NHL thinks short kings can’t play then the Caps should be tripping over themselves getting to the podium to draft him.

True…but how many small players fail? I’m guessing many many many more than the ones listed above. It’s all about properly scouting the individual and not believing the old default mindset.

 

[Langway]

The KHL contract will be more influential with Michkov you'd think, as he's under KHL contract another three seasons. The Caps waited four years for Kuznetsov but that was later in the first at a time when there was less urgency. Whereas with Moore & Leonard at least if they have a big freshman season they could turn pro next spring. An extra season or two prior to UFA status isn't nothing, nor more proximate hands on development. Some GMs won't want to deal with the hassle and uncertainty, esp. if they don't have a strong track record with Russians or are under the gun to improve more quickly. He's also less visible than he otherwise would be with no Russian team at international events.

Definitely have a hard time believing they'd pass on him if he slides to 8 given their tendencies. But you do wonder how well it aligns with near-term competitiveness, whether they'll still adhere to unconditional BPA or if circumstances won't necessitate more concern for doing whatever it takes to revamp next season's lineup. You'd have to consider Michkov a separate thing on its own--perhaps a bit of post-Ovechkin planning--but given the scale of their issues today securing something that far off makes you wonder how they'll manage in the meantime. They can survive and improve with more subtlety and discipline but they need to get a whole lot right. Or else these higher picks and meaningless games could become the new normal. Also have to wonder just how patient Ovechkin will be allowing them to figure it out. MacLellan is typically pretty resourceful but this is a tough hand to work with.

 

[YippieKaey]

Yeah i think skating and hustle will be two important factors for anyone wishing to succeed in the league going forwards, which is why Moore is my choice at 8. He can always be coached to pass more etc, and with better teammates he will. Right now he sounds like a rich mans two way Daniel Sprong who plays center and that could be dynamite going forward. Larkin and maybe Point seems like good comparisons?

Although i've seen very little of him. Where can one best watch junior games if living in Europe?

 

[Langway]

Another thing re: Michkov, I believe last year no Russian players playing in Russia were invited to the combine. Should that hold true again for geopolitical reasons it's another opportunity teams won't have with Michkov (and But, Gulyayev, Simachev, etc.). Teams will be able to Zoom and talk face-to-face during draft week but it may be another sight unseen factor as far as physical testing.

 

[StrikingDistance]

At some point teams are going to realize that short dudes can play and they should stop overlooking them, especially if the production is there in the junior ranks. Cole Caufield, Brayden Point, Cam Atkinson, Alex DeBrincat, Johnny Gaudreau, Brad Marchand, Torey Krug, Conor Sheary, Yanni Gourde, Brendan Gallagher, Jared Spurgeon, Tyler Johnson, Viktor Arvidsson… all 5’9” or shorter. Almost all fell in the draft or went undrafted mainly due to their size. Michkov is listed at 5’10”. If Michkov slips to 8 or 9 because the NHL thinks short kings can’t play then the Caps should be tripping over themselves getting to the podium to draft him.

Don't forget, Martin St. Louis was 5'2".

 

[pman25]

Yes Leonard I think is my guy at 8 or 9 unless Benson somehow makes it there. I do think Reinbacher pushes up to Montreal or Arizona as they both have a clear RHD need and can get a good forward with their next 1st rounder. So that shifts a forward down. And still keeping open the possibility for a Michkov slide

Barlow is a guy I really like and I think the comments on him being a finished product are mostly related to his facial hair and overall Grown Man appearance. He definitely has room to grow (as a hockey player) and think his instincts/IQ are among the best in class. The production also speaks for itself. Top 10 all day

 

[Carlzner]

A top 4 pick would completely change the future direction of this franchise. It seems like there's always teams that move up a few spots with how random the lottery can be.

Tank tank tank baby

 

[Serial_Derecho]

A top 4 pick would completely change the future direction of this franchise. It seems like there's always teams that move up a few spots with how random the lottery can be.

Tank tank tank baby

The lottery only applies for the first two picks. The highest they can pick otherwise is 8. So a “top 4” is only feasible if they win the lottery for one of the “top 2” picks

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

True…but how many small players fail? I’m guessing many many many more than the ones listed above. It’s all about properly scouting the individual and not believing the old default mindset.

Players of all size fail. How many guys are overdrafted because they’re big dudes? If anything giant dudes pose a bigger risk because they’re used to playing against a bunch of smaller and weaker players so any skill deficiency can be masked in the junior ranks due to their size.

But yeah, agree that scouting the individual is important. Dinging a player who crushed it in the junior or college ranks because he’s a bit smaller is dumb.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Players of all size fail. How many guys are overdrafted because they’re big dudes? If anything giant dudes pose a bigger risk because they’re used to playing against a bunch of smaller and weaker players so any skill deficiency can be masked in the junior ranks due to their size.

But yeah, agree that scouting the individual is important. Dinging a player who crushed it in the junior or college ranks because he’s a bit smaller is dumb.

like the old adage says, “you can’t teach size”…..and some see stars in their eyes from it. I think the best evaluators peel those layers back and look at more and don’t overvalue anything.

 

[Langway]

Barlow is a guy I really like and I think the comments on him being a finished product are mostly related to his facial hair and overall Grown Man appearance. He definitely has room to grow (as a hockey player) and think his instincts/IQ are among the best in class. The production also speaks for itself. Top 10 all day

I'd like him more on a team with more pace is all. Teams that can open up areas for him to take advantage of would better suit his game. More on his own I'm not sure he fares as well creating compared to Leonard. He's crafty so maybe he figures it out. He's probably in the top 10 but the WC/U18s will have a say.

You don't want to focus too much on current needs and certainly they also do need goal-scorers. BPA should rule the day but they do need to be mindful of the realistic impact of any less explosive winger minus high grade center play. Strome looks to be a piece, though ideally more of a 2C. Maybe it's not too late for McMichael to be a useful middle six C. It's the 1C spot that really sticks out with 92's time running out and 19 likely too slow at this stage. It's mainly why, as much as one may want to take need out of the equation, positional scarcity has to factor in to any closer decision. Moore vs. Benson I think would be an interesting decision. Would they be in position to add a higher upside C option any time soon (barring their 2023 performance becoming the norm)?

 

[EroCaps]

Size shouldn't be an issue in today's NHL.

My concern with Michkov is that he's small and plays wing. Now, he could be another Patrick Kane or Pasta but teams better have some indication of that if he's on the board.

Other than that he's easily the second-best player in the draft.

 

[Corby78]

At some point teams are going to realize that short dudes can play and they should stop overlooking them, especially if the production is there in the junior ranks. Cole Caufield, Brayden Point, Cam Atkinson, Alex DeBrincat, Johnny Gaudreau, Brad Marchand, Torey Krug, Conor Sheary, Yanni Gourde, Brendan Gallagher, Jared Spurgeon, Tyler Johnson, Viktor Arvidsson… all 5’9” or shorter. Almost all fell in the draft or went undrafted mainly due to their size. Michkov is listed at 5’10”. If Michkov slips to 8 or 9 because the NHL thinks short kings can’t play then the Caps should be tripping over themselves getting to the podium to draft him.

From what I’ve read it has less to do with size and more to do with not knowing when he would get over to the NHL. And a question on his overall commitment to a 200’ game.

 

[trick9]

The KHL contract will be more influential with Michkov you'd think, as he's under KHL contract another three seasons. The Caps waited four years for Kuznetsov but that was later in the first at a time when there was less urgency. Whereas with Moore & Leonard at least if they have a big freshman season they could turn pro next spring. An extra season or two prior to UFA status isn't nothing, nor more proximate hands on development. Some GMs won't want to deal with the hassle and uncertainty, esp. if they don't have a strong track record with Russians or are under the gun to improve more quickly. He's also less visible than he otherwise would be with no Russian team at international events.

Definitely have a hard time believing they'd pass on him if he slides to 8 given their tendencies. But you do wonder how well it aligns with near-term competitiveness, whether they'll still adhere to unconditional BPA or if circumstances won't necessitate more concern for doing whatever it takes to revamp next season's lineup. You'd have to consider Michkov a separate thing on its own--perhaps a bit of post-Ovechkin planning--but given the scale of their issues today securing something that far off makes you wonder how they'll manage in the meantime. They can survive and improve with more subtlety and discipline but they need to get a whole lot right. Or else these higher picks and meaningless games could become the new normal. Also have to wonder just how patient Ovechkin will be allowing them to figure it out. MacLellan is typically pretty resourceful but this is a tough hand to work with.

Ding ding ding.

I think his contract and the fact that he isn't likely to come over any time soon on top of all the uncertainty around KHL make it a pretty safe bet that he's sliding at the draft. The fact that he’s a small winger already slots him as a potential slider and that situation only adds to it. If there is a GM who loves him/hates other guys around those spots and is very confident on his future employment, maybe they go for it.

Looking at who is drafting where... Sharks are propably the one team that could grab him. I don't think Habs take him. Arizona even less so. Flyers are big on their identity and i have a hunch that they are after a center. I think Michkov is still there @ 8.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Ding ding ding.

I think his contract and the fact that he isn't likely to come over any time soon on top of all the uncertainty around KHL make it a pretty safe bet that he's sliding at the draft. The fact that he’s a small winger already slots him as a potential slider and that situation only adds to it. If there is a GM who loves him/hates other guys around those spots and is very confident on his future employment, maybe they go for it.

Looking at who is drafting where... Sharks are propably the one team that could grab him. I don't think Habs take him. Arizona even less so. Flyers are big on their identity and i have a hunch that they are after a center. I think Michkov is still there @ 8.

That would be something

 

[Holtbyisms]

That would be something

It would, because I'm certain our scouting team would take him and throw a party over it. I'd be elated to get him at 8 but I'm not seeing it. He won't make it out of the top 3.

 

[um]

Bedard/Suzdalev game 7 tonight.

Could be good.

 

[Langway]

It would, because I'm certain our scouting team would take him and throw a party over it. I'd be elated to get him at 8 but I'm not seeing it. He won't make it out of the top 3.

I doubt he goes top 3 with the way Carlsson is finishing (9 points in 12 SHL playoff games). 1-2-3 should more or less be a lock.

 

[Jags]

Don't forget, Martin St. Louis was 5'2"

Yeah, but he had thighs so big they each had their own equator.

MSL's a bad metric for small guys. Total physical freak with a monster work ethic, that guy. If a guy's small but has legs that can power a small country, he's not really small. If a guy's small and looks like someone's 9-year-old kid on an NHL bus, that's the kind of small you gotta worry about...

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yeah, but he had thighs so big they each had their own equator.

MSL's a bad metric for small guys. Total physical freak with a monster work ethic, that guy. If a guy's small but has legs that can power a small country, he's not really small. If a guy's small and looks like someone's 9-year-old kid on an NHL bus, that's the kind of small you gotta worry about...