GDT: 2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread

[SecretaryofDefense5]

There could be some great options at 8 OA if Michkov goes 2/3/4 and trading up is universally unrealistic. All it takes is someone take Dvorsky, and one or two teams grabbing a D, or a team going off the board ahead of us and we can have more options than expected.

We very well could come out of this with a core star who is a great Cap for over a decade. That's good!!

Or you could end up with Dvorksy.

I am not sure why but I found this Mahoney quite interesting:

“It’s a little bit reminiscent of the year (2006) we took Nicklas Backstrom. Erik Johnson went No. 1, Jordan Staal went No. 2, Jonathan Toewswent No. 3 and we took Nick Backstrom at No. 4. To me, they all could have been No. 1. But they were all the same year, so someone had to go two, three and four. This year is a little similar to that.”

 

[Kalopsia]

Reinbacher would be the biggest impact d-man to come in since John Carlson.

No argument there, but doesn't change the fact that right D is probably the deepest position group in the organization. I don't like drafting for need to begin with, but I also don't think RD is a need for the Caps in the first place.

 

[Langway]

There's a lot more offensive upside with Reinbacher than Alzner. Way more confidence joining the attack and making plays. Not really dynamic but willing and a decent base to build off of. Benson would provide a bit more apparent electricity but, then again, Reinbacher would play more minutes. That may realistically be the toughest call to make among players in the mix.

I've got to believe Washington and Detroit will be the most aggressive on Michkov. They should be anyway given tendencies and needs. But I do wonder if even moving back one additional spot that early on isn't a big deal.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Caps fans, question from a Preds fan here: If Michkov fell to you (seems unlikely but…) is there any scenario you see that has the Caps trading the pick? Presumably it would be a “win now” package of all star talent that fits your
cap, maybe plus picks/prospects? Or is it all Michkov all the way?

I believe they would only seriously consider trading it for the right star player coming in. Otherwise no.

 

[SherVaughn30]

There's a lot more offensive upside with Reinbacher than Alzner. Way more confidence joining the attack and making plays. Not really dynamic but willing and a decent base to build off of. Benson would provide a bit more apparent electricity but, then again, Reinbacher would play more minutes. That may realistically be the toughest call to make among players in the mix.

I've got to believe Washington and Detroit will be the most aggressive on Michkov. They should be anyway given tendencies and needs. But I do wonder if even moving back one additional spot that early on isn't a big deal.

Yup, Caps/Wings have had the most success drafting Russian players. I believe there is a bit of bluffing by other teams that they will pick Michkov earlier than expected. The KHL contract obligation is a big deal for those teams that have a chance for him that they might pass on him. A lot of teams have lack of experience in how to handle drafting Russians. That is due to scouting in areas that most teams don't have scouting resources or connections.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Yup, Caps/Wings have had the most success drafting Russian players. I believe there is a bit of bluffing by other teams that they will pick Michkov earlier than expected. The KHL contract obligation is a big deal for those teams that have a chance for him that they might pass on him. A lot of teams have lack of experience in how to handle drafting Russians. That is due to scouting in areas that most teams don't have scouting resources or connections.

Philly isn’t bluffing IMO.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

Anyone know this poster and have insight on credibility? From page 2 of the "Who will be the most off the board 1st rounder in 2023?" thread in the Draft forum...

 

[HTFN]

Anyone know this poster and have insight on credibility? From page 2 of the "Who will be the most off the board 1st rounder in 2023?" thread in the Draft forum...View attachment 721252

Don't know them, zero credibility, but it also seems like a revelation when it's really not because I have to imagine most teams do it this way. You have your master list in case anything wildly stupid happens, and then your shortlist for guys you think you'll actually be seeing and want around your pick.

It seems so universally the way drafts go that I can't even think of another way to do it.

 

[Langway]

Kind of hard to piece that all together. But I'm guessing their three are Michkov, Leonard and Dvorsky. Dvorsky being more speculative than the other two, who after the big four seem pretty obvious inclusions. Not impossible that all three could be gone leaving them with Reinbacher/Benson/Moore. It seems like Benson may not go top 11 based on fit for DET/STL/VAN, who may opt for defense in a shallow class. If the Caps could slide back a bit, let someone move up for Reinbacher and trigger the beginning of a D run where they could land a forward later it may present decent value. Likely not as appealing as trading up and landing The Big Fish. But it's one way to play an area where they may not have a true top target depending on how it plays out. If the next tier group is pretty equal (and broad) maybe adding 12+38 so that Arizona can nab a secondary top target makes sense. At 12 they may be able to still get Benson. Or their pick among the best of the rest.

But if they get too far into the weeds trying to extract maximum value maneuvering around and don't love top options at 8 they probably ought to heavily shop the pick for immediate help instead.

 

[trick9]

Philly isn’t bluffing IMO.

I don't really buy it.

Still it's very limited views they've got on Michkov and it's all through just videos seeing as they are one of the teams without a Russian-based scout. Will be interesting to see what Arizona does but Reinbacher and Leonard are 2 guys i don't see Flyers passing up on.

Around the Combine the word from the Flyers camp was that Reinbacher was their guy and that they were hoping to grab one of the smaller wingers who slide with their pick #22. But what you heard from there is that their main priority seemed to be on fixing the defense, similar as to what Keith Jones pointed out already. That doesn't necessarily mean passing on Michkov if they think one of the top-tier D's are still left at 22 but right now the early word is that there is going to be a mayhem with D's between 10-20 with so many teams needing one but so few options available.

Arizona is the wild-card for me. Habs seem to make their decision between Reinbacher and Leonard, but Arizona is a team who likes Dvorsky a lot along with those guys. They were the team that scouted Dvorsky the most during the season, which makes sense given they have pick #12 too and Dvorsky was a late-riser to top-10. They were one of my Benson-options (Geekie-connection) but hearing that they are looking to get bigger, it seems very unlikely right now. Their picks are in pretty good spots though so drafting a winger at 6 seem unlikely given that you can still get a great one at 12.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I don't really buy it.

Still it's very limited views they've got on Michkov and it's all through just videos seeing as they are one of the teams without a Russian-based scout. Will be interesting to see what Arizona does but Reinbacher and Leonard are 2 guys i don't see Flyers passing up on.

Around the Combine the word from the Flyers camp was that Reinbacher was their guy and that they were hoping to grab one of the smaller wingers who slide with their pick #22. But what you heard from there is that their main priority seemed to be on fixing the defense, similar as to what Keith Jones pointed out already. That doesn't necessarily mean passing on Michkov if they think one of the top-tier D's are still left at 22 but right now the early word is that there is going to be a mayhem with D's between 10-20 with so many teams needing one but so few options available.

Arizona is the wild-card for me. Habs seem to make their decision between Reinbacher and Leonard, but Arizona is a team who likes Dvorsky a lot along with those guys. They were the team that scouted Dvorsky the most during the season, which makes sense given they have pick #12 too and Dvorsky was a late-riser to top-10. They were one of my Benson-options (Geekie-connection) but hearing that they are looking to get bigger, it seems very unlikely right now. Their picks are in pretty good spots though so drafting a winger at 6 seem unlikely given that you can still get a great one at 12.

If you watch Briere’s press conference from a few days ago…sure sounds like a team that will take Michkov. Especially with the multiple first round picks.

 

[SherVaughn30]

Philly just recently traded Provorov after some controversy. Philly is a blue collar town and I don't think any pure Russian player will be adopted by the fans. Michkov has a KHL contract obligation and I don't think Philly fans will be patient to wait that long. I could honestly believe there would be some backlash if Philly chose Michkov. I also think Michkov's preference would be to play for an NHL team that has Russian's on their roster. Doesn't anyone find it a bit odd that he made it so difficult to get clean interviews with him. I think Michkov did it on purpose because he probably wants to increase his chances of playing for the Caps(Ovechkin is a Legend in Russia) or the Wings.

 

[SherVaughn30]

If you watch Briere’s press conference from a few days ago…sure sounds like a team that will take Michkov. Especially with the multiple first round picks.

You do realize a lot of teams are not gonna publicly sell themselves short on any players that are projected to be available in their draft position. Regular viewers of the NHL draft are not dumb. You look at Philly's draft history and they are really weak in drafting Russian players.

 

[Langway]

Still it's very limited views they've got on Michkov and it's all through just videos seeing as they are one of the teams without a Russian-based scout.

They do have a Russian scout according to one of their more recent pressers. But it's still just one guy with no crossover live views for more in-depth assessments and conversations outside of video. Video has greatly improved so it can be done but Michkov at 7 hadn't been anticipated until more recently. Earlier on it seemed like Briere either didn't expect or hoped Michkov would be off the board. Will they have done a deep enough dive to where they're comfortable taking him somewhat on faith? They say they've done their homework but it's more difficult than with any other player in that range. Friedman said there was one team in the top 10 that would take him sight unseen. Given their history I have to believe Washington is that club. Philly must know this so if nothing else it makes sense to try to leverage their position to gain an asset.

If we closely parse some of Philly's statements they've frequently mentioned BPA for them. That's a key way of how they've put it in terms of what they're trying to build at this early stage. They're very much leaning on their vision and values to where you wonder if pure value and upside is the determining factor. Maybe the value is glaring enough to where they do it, esp. after adding the 22nd pick, but I think they'll want more certainty and to lean into a desired team identity. Maybe superstar upside is enough to where they just like to have it in their pocket but I doubt they'll do it over Reinbacher. If it's Dvorsky it's harder to say. Given that they may be in for a lengthy rebuild I'm not sure it's is a no-brainer first pick to make. Fast forward three years and who's going to be around to play with him, boost his production and show him the ropes? They'll have a late meeting but how will they establish and maintain a strong relationship from there? Will the Fedotov situation itself have a chilling effect?

It seems even less likely Leonard makes it out of the top 5 or 6. If it's not MTL it's ARI. Also recall ARI only acquired the 12th pick at the deadline for Chychrun and their interest in Dvorsky goes back a way. A potential run on D between 10-20 may be a key factor for ARI and PHI to be sure. ARI may want to add Reinbacher if he's still available to have their pick of the D at 6 and then add a forward that slides at 12. It seems remote at 22 that any of the top D aside from maybe a sliding Simashev will be on the board. Even that may be a stretch. That sort of game-planning could lead to, if not Michkov, then perhaps Dvorsky making it to 8. And I think that may be a preferred outcome for them compared to Reinbacher.

 

[YippieKaey]

The best argument for drafting Michkov apart from the obvious ones is that him and Miro shoot L and R and one is super-shifty all areas offensive player and the other is more of a physical sniper "Ovi-lite" type. Given Lapierres playmaking potential those three could form a really nice first line even if Lapy doesn't reach higher than a #2 playmaking C type of player.

 

[usiel]

I don't want them to draft Reinbacher for the same reasons I'd rather them not draft Dvorsky. Both are high floor very safe 2nd tier players. Dvorsky screams 2nd line C and Reinbacher is middle pair and some PP if you ask me. If Michkov is gone by 8 or they can't move up to get him I want them to go after someone a bit more dynamic.

Drafting high floor players in what is considered a strong top 10 draft just twists me in the all the wrong ways. My own bias for sure but I'm of course more open to this the further down in the 1st round.

 

[Langway]

Final 2023 NHL Draft thoughts: Player comparables, quotes, predictions and more

As the clock ticks down to Nashville, Scott Wheeler offers his last-minute thoughts, comparables for the top prospects, and more.

theathletic.com

In the reporting process for last week’s scout survey, one NHL scout expressed concerns about a sense of entitlement that some Russian scouts/agents/staff feel Michkov has, confirming talk this year about him mouthing off at a coach.

There has been much said and written about Michkov’s contract and the geopolitics at play, but it sounds there’s more to the decision than that. This isn’t DND (Do Not Draft) off-ice conduct stuff, but Michkov has been a star his whole life and it sounds like he now faces a little adversity with NHL clubs after forcing his way out of SKA this season. I expect that that chatter will make the meetings that some teams have lined up with Michkov this week in Nashville that much more important for both sides. It’s obviously pretty late in the process for introductions but there were very few NHL scouts or staff who actually saw Michkov play in Russia this year and it has added layers and layers of things that make this process more complicated than simply taking the player — a player who may, in the end, be a star in the NHL someday, too.

Definitely warming to the idea of daring teams in front of them to take Michkov. You also have to wonder generally whether these concerns may cool interest from other teams trading up for him. It's just so much more complicated than taking the upside play in a vacuum. Sure, there's reward. There's also considerable risk and to downplay it overlooks a lot of what goes into team building. If a smaller winger in Benson is sliding late without half the baggage you've got to wonder if Michkov won't just be there at 8. I'm sure Mahoney is a big believer in MM's upside and may be aggressive about landing him...but it may be needless. They probably should just roll the dice and see if he's there at 8. If not and they want a reasonable facsimile Benson may be there and end up just as good (or better). Michkov is the better goal-scorer but everything else is at least pretty close (with Benson perhaps being the more industrious).


Something else to monitor given that Nashville is hosting. They've got 15+24 and 13 picks total.

 

[OV Rocks]

Seems like teams are warming up to Michkov again. Looks like unless something crazy happens for the Caps to pull of moving up, he won't be there at 8.

Please no Reinbacher or Dvorsky is now all I hope for. Neither of them seem to move the needle.

 

[John Price]

I don't think Michkov or whatever his name is is droppoing to 8. And I'm not sure we want that headache. People are already mad enough at us for the Qatar ownership thing.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[Langway]

Nikolishin is indeed now listed as a scout.

It's lying season. Unless a GM comes out and unequivocally says they're taking Michkov if he's available I'm not going to buy rumors of interest. It's too weak. Seravalli taking it a step further and saying the Flyers are aggressively trying to move up to 4/5 now is similarly hard to buy. Why not just take Carlsson/Smith or Leonard in those spots? Why would SJS or MTL be interested in a trade down for quantity rather than take the player they've keyed in on? It could happen. But it would take a significant offer and I find it hard to believe the Flyers would be that all-in. Trades in the top 10 don't happen very often for good reason. More power to them if so. And on to the next thing...

 

[HTFN]

Nikolishin is indeed now listed as a scout.

It's lying season. Unless a GM comes out and unequivocally says they're taking Michkov if he's available I'm not going to buy rumors of interest. It's too weak. Seravalli taking it a step further and saying the Flyers are aggressively trying to move up to 4/5 now is similarly hard to buy. Why not just take Carlsson/Smith or Leonard in those spots? Why would SJS or MTL be interested in a trade down for quantity rather than take the player they've keyed in on? It could happen. But it would take a significant offer and I find it hard to believe the Flyers would be that all-in. Trades in the top 10 don't happen very often for good reason. More power to them if so. And on to the next thing...

That's a little tough because I could see people getting wild late stages on Michkov just for the fear of losing out on what he could be, and occasionally extra pressure can make GMs flip in the moment, but I don't know why most wouldn't just be biding their time and waiting for the board to start to shake. Going to be good players on the board no matter what

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Nikolishin is indeed now listed as a scout.

It's lying season. Unless a GM comes out and unequivocally says they're taking Michkov if he's available I'm not going to buy rumors of interest. It's too weak. Seravalli taking it a step further and saying the Flyers are aggressively trying to move up to 4/5 now is similarly hard to buy. Why not just take Carlsson/Smith or Leonard in those spots? Why would SJS or MTL be interested in a trade down for quantity rather than take the player they've keyed in on? It could happen. But it would take a significant offer and I find it hard to believe the Flyers would be that all-in. Trades in the top 10 don't happen very often for good reason. More power to them if so. And on to the next thing...

Lol! Shocked/not shocked! Seriously why was that in doubt?

 

[Langway]

Lol! Shocked/not shocked! Seriously why was that in doubt?

Because it hadn't been officially confirmed anywhere aside from the person himself and you never know. It made sense in light of the lack of access in Russia but it's not very often these things are first divulged via media reports.

 

[HTFN]

Because it hadn't been officially confirmed anywhere aside from the person himself and you never know. It made sense in light of the lack of access in Russia but it's not very often these things are first divulged via media reports.

Plus I saw a handful of knobs calling him a Blackhawks scout like a week ago and even I got confused, so that was something.