GDT: 2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread

[Corby78]

Not a Caps quote, but it's a philosophy I think they should follow this draft.

If there's no gamebreaking talent available at #8 then I'd say trade it for immediate help. It's easy enough to get those second tier type players via trade and free agency. No reason to waste a premium asset in #8 overall on a lower ceiling type player.

What’s your definition of “gamebraking?” Because the guys that will be there at 8 are not being scouted as future 3rd 4th line guys.

 

[Random schmoe]

Pronman's latest mock this morning again has Michkov dropping to the Caps.

NHL Mock Draft 2.0: Leo Carlsson rising after strong play at Worlds

Corey Pronman makes his second attempt at predicting how the first round of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft will play out.

theathletic.com

I still suspect that if the teams at 5, 6, and 7 don't want to select him, one of them will trade down. That's premium real estate.

 

[trick9]

No Russians/Belarusians.

Still think Michkov is going to be there at 8. Really interested to see other options at that range on the Combine though.

 

[twabby]

What’s your definition of “gamebraking?” Because the guys that will be there at 8 are not being scouted as future 3rd 4th line guys.

Legitimate all-star talents with high probability. Basically the type of players that can’t be easily acquired in a trade or free agency.

 

[HecticGlow]

Legitimate all-star talents with high probability. Basically the type of players that can’t be easily acquired in a trade or free agency.

In other words the kind of players that Trotz was forced to adapt to because their talent was so immense (E.g. Ovi, Kuzy, Orlov), rather than the two-way guys who played the game the way he preferred (your Ellers, Beagles and Oshies).

 

[HecticGlow]

Does anyone remember why Miro’s Russian team agreed to let him out of his contract two years early so he could sign with Washington? Seemed to come as a surprise when it was announced, no? I’m seeing a lot of comparisons being made with Michkov - the Caps aren’t scared of his three year KHL deal because they worked around Miro’s - but don’t mention the Caps had to wait years for both Kuzy and Samsonov to be available.

Maybe if Michkov desperately wants to ensure he gets to play with Ovi he’ll try to get out of his contract if the Caps draft him, but otherwise I think he’d be a longer-term pick for any team including the Caps.

 

[Random schmoe]

Does anyone remember why Miro’s Russian team agreed to let him out of his contract two years early so he could sign with Washington? Seemed to come as a surprise when it was announced, no? I’m seeing a lot of comparisons being made with Michkov - the Caps aren’t scared of his three year KHL deal because they worked around Miro’s - but don’t mention the Caps had to wait years for both Kuzy and Samsonov to be available.

Maybe if Miro desperately wants to ensure he gets to play with Ovi he’ll try to get out of his contract if the Caps draft him, but otherwise I think he’d be a longer-term pick for any team including the Caps.

Miro only had one year left on his KHL contract, and public reports said that when he negotiated that contract he negotiated in an opt out for the final season that would allow him to play in North America.

Russian Machine has a post that explained it.

Ivan Miroshnichenko agrees to mutual KHL contract termination, can now immediately join Capitals organization

Ivan Miroshnichenko is headed for North America. The Washington Capitals' 2022 first-round draft selection came to terms on a mutual contract termination…

russianmachineneverbreaks.com

 

[Rayquaza64]

I know it was mentioned but here’s the full thing. Interesting comment on Dvorsky as well.

 

[Langway]

That mock solidifies the sense that after the big four centers there's primarily Michkov, Leonard, Dvorsky and Reinbacher. Danielson, Willander, Wood or Honzek could sneak up. Someone could really like Benson or Moore. It only takes one. But at 8 the consensus sense largely opts for one of Michkov/Leonard/Dvorsky/Reinbacher. Reinbacher will probably be gone or else maybe they could trade down if they're not huge believers and there's demand for the top D. Have to believe Dvorsky remains most likely, not just due to his profile and their needs but the likelihood 5-6-7 winds up Michkov/Leonard/Reinbacher. None of the alternatives seem as compelling.

Big no on Danielson. In addition to questions of vision I don't think his skating backs up being an excellent defensive center or a dynamic one. Similar to Yager he's more of a straight line guy. Laterally it doesn't seem like there's much there and it's hard to smoothly patrol areas without it. Sense and work rate can compensate to an extent but I don't think he's naturally got amazing IQ. He's also less than two weeks from being eligible for last year's draft. Dvorsky's skating isn't great either but he seems to have a better positional sense, style and grasp of angling to see the potential.

Benson & Moore not going until the late teens would be excellent value for someone. As much as bigger options look to be rising and I have questions about Benson, it's hard to believe he's not a top 11 guy. Teams do largely prioritize building up the middle and still value size so a slide is somewhat expected. Given what Trotz said about electric talent Simashev seems unlikely for them. Have to believe they'd go Benson if he slides that far.

Eight players not in this first round: Stenberg, Dragicevic, Gulyayev, Wahlberg, Ziemmer, Heidt, Cristall and Sawchyn. 5 of 8 out of the WHL, a Russian and a couple Swedes rank highest on my board and they'd all be somewhat typical fits. There are many others of course--still seems like an area where they could take a goalie--but it's a strong pool for 40.

 

[Rayquaza64]

Ziemmer at 40 would be great

 

[pman25]

I also think a good rule to follow for the draft is to just take one goalie every year. 5th, 6th, or 7th rounders whatever. Just stash one since they take 100 years to develop

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I also think a good rule to follow for the draft is to just take one goalie every year. 5th, 6th, or 7th rounders whatever. Just stash one since they take 100 years to develop

Well they did take one in 20 and 21….

 

[pman25]

Well they did take one in 20 and 21….

That’s right, keep it going! Caps have been a goalie developing gurus. Keep doing it. Best case you get a cup winning goalie (Braden Holtby, 4th round) or you trade them for additional assets as they play their way into starting roles elsewhere (Varlamov, Grubauer, Vanecek) or they just bust and it’s not a big deal (Soberg, Kostenko). Or even just getting decent depth like Copley is a win, who was undrafted.

It was pretty refreshing to just move from Varlamov to Neuvirth to Holtby / Grubauer then Samsonov / Vanecek and then we kinda got into trouble and had to reset with free agency.

But keep the pipeline loaded! Especially euro/Russian goalies since they can stay overseas forever if they want

 

[Langway]

Milic could be interesting later in the draft. Not the biggest but neither is Shepard. He could immediately turn pro next year.

 

[Corby78]

Legitimate all-star talents with high probability. Basically the type of players that can’t be easily acquired in a trade or free agency.

So basically one guy. Got it.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

After doing a deeper dive on a bunch of guys, I'm wondering why ASP isn't getting more love as a top 10 pick. The puck skills and skating look elite. Is there a higher ceiling that's potentially available at 8 outside of Michkov?

 

[usiel]

After doing a deeper dive on a bunch of guys, I'm wondering why ASP isn't getting more love as a top 10 pick. The puck skills and skating look elite. Is there a higher ceiling that's potentially available at 8 outside of Michkov?

Weak 1st round D prospect draft tends to overvalue the pick from my long years of watching, imho.

If there was a truly elite puck moving right handed offensive dman in the top 10 this year sure.

 

[Roshi]

That’s right, keep it going! Caps have been a goalie developing gurus. Keep doing it. Best case you get a cup winning goalie (Braden Holtby, 4th round) or you trade them for additional assets as they play their way into starting roles elsewhere (Varlamov, Grubauer, Vanecek) or they just bust and it’s not a big deal (Soberg, Kostenko). Or even just getting decent depth like Copley is a win, who was undrafted.

It was pretty refreshing to just move from Varlamov to Neuvirth to Holtby / Grubauer then Samsonov / Vanecek and then we kinda got into trouble and had to reset with free agency.

But keep the pipeline loaded! Especially euro/Russian goalies since they can stay overseas forever if they want

While i agree that drafting goalie every year might occasionally bank up and we have a good recent history with success on doing so, its still a question if thats really a thing.

Looking at the goalie market and goalie success past few years it seems like theres plenty of starter qualified or atleast starter potential goalies moving all around for cheap or free. Not many of the goalies seem to be ”home grown” anymore and especially when the difference in skillsets have tied down so much theres pretty much 100 goalies who can just ”get hot at the right time” and only 32 teams with open spots.

Finalists for this year are Adin Hill who is a garbage pin find and Bobrovsky who is UFA signing and also doomed to oblivion before the playoffs started.

CAR had Raanta and Andersen, both UFAs. TOR had Sammy. Bruins with Ullmark. Avs with Georgiev. Etc etc.

We used 1st and 2nd for Sammy and Vanecek so we did end up losing value with them, just to have them a bit too early and to see them making it with other teams. And i think thats a bit of a trend now. Good young goalies are hard to keep under team control, and most of the times they end up shining bright elsewhere.

Goalie position is just so difficult. If theres a talent you really feel strongly about, sure, draft him. But just to draft a goalie for drafting a goalie seems a bit of.. waste. Id say just forget the positions on late round picks and go with the talent/personality trait.

 

[Hivemind]

Drafting goalies is how you avoid having to invest $25M to lure a UFA goalie.

 

[Langway]

After doing a deeper dive on a bunch of guys, I'm wondering why ASP isn't getting more love as a top 10 pick. The puck skills and skating look elite. Is there a higher ceiling that's potentially available at 8 outside of Michkov?

Size. Some concern how well he'll manage forechecking based on SHL play. Against his peers he looks pretty elite skill wise but against men his limitations don't hold up as well. Also it remains very in vogue building bigger bluelines to survive the playoff grind so the threshold for a smaller skilled D remains high. Hence why Reinbacher and likely even Willander end up going before him due to bigger, sturdier frames. There's a pure skill and IQ case to be made but it's a bit unbalanced toward offense and even then a bit short of downright Elite. He did a lot at the U18s suggesting definite upside. Button pushed him all the way to 5 on his list comparing him to Zubov but the broader picture and environment suggests it's a bit rich. You'd need to love his instincts as a player in all phases and it's a work in progress. Comparisons to a Nils Lunqkvist seem too far in the other direction. He'll figure it out to some degree. I think his problem-solving will allow him to be a top 4 D but size will be a limitation that forces great technique to overcome (and realistically should limit certainty in vast potential).

In terms of guys getting slept on I think Wood stands out around the 10 area. It's just that he's not much of a captivating fit for Washington due to skating. As far as ceilings go I think Reinbacher is an easier fit to be an all-situations D that does everything well so teams are likely to rank him higher as a more stable piece. Leonard is likely gone but is another that does everything quite well to be a key player. After that in terms of all-around upside, skill and leadership potential IMO it's still mainly Dvorsky or taking a shot on Moore. Also, again, for the Caps at least I wonder about the positional upgrade to be had in fishing in the RD group early given what they've got and what's in the system already. At 40 if Dragicevic remains available I could see the wisdom. If forced to make a pick if Michkov/Leonard/Dvorsky are gone at 8 I'd probably take Reinbacher but there may not be significant direct upgrade potential to be had. At 8 realistically I think they need to add a dynamic forward that helps modernize and energize their game. Dvorsky has some work to do but has the capacity to impact the game in a lot of areas. Ditto Moore if they're believers in his carrying strengths.

 

[twabby]

So basically one guy. Got it.

I don’t think it’s just Michkov who’d fit that bill if that’s who you’re referring to.

Benson has a great statistical profile which gives him a high probability of turning into a star player and a lot of mocks have him available at 8. And there’s probably another player or two available at that pick that has a great chance of turning into something special.

Dvorsky is who a lot of people see Washington taking and I wouldn’t be as thrilled about this pick, at least based on his numbers to date. Seems like a safe pick to become an NHLer but his numbers point to a lower ceiling type two-way player. Perhaps the same level of impact as someone like Dylan Strome, who was available for free.

With where Washington is they either need to supplement the roster they have now (I.e. trade the pick), or they need to draft a player that has a good chance to become the next franchise player. I’ll be highly disappointed if they play it safe.

 

[pman25]

I liked ASP too but also his puck retrievals haven’t been great at times so he might not be one to withstand heavy d zone pressure very well. But might be something he won’t have a problem with if his skating and transition are so solid, I like his upside though and wouldn’t necessarily have a problem with the pick

I’m feeling the love for Matthew Wood lately as the high risk high reward pick. Especially if Michkov and Leonard are gone. Less certain if I’d pick Dvorsky in that scenario.

 

[Langway]

With where Washington is they either need to supplement the roster they have now (I.e. trade the pick), or they need to draft a player that has a good chance to become the next franchise player. I’ll be highly disappointed if they play it safe.

The last franchise player selected eight or later is, uh, maybe Jason Robertson in 2017? Six years ago. You're going to want them to trade the pick unless Michkov slides. Which, as an Ovechkin fan, makes a ton of sense. And it might even make sense for the franchise depending on the strength of the trade market and their pressure to turn things around.

A Benson or Perreault could put up a lot of points and do some good things in the regular season at least if all goes right but that doesn't in itself equal franchise player. It's a main component in a star but the strings attached with those two more slight talents physically may not align with an Ovechkin Era competitive timeline. Even beyond that timeframe you wonder about the fit and whether they'd readily look to build around a finesse type winger. With Michkov the impact is more undeniable. Those two? Not the same level of electricity and it's typically not a recipe for success or the primary component in a Cup winner. Teams traditionally look to build down the middle and if that's the route they go over a flashier talent I don't think it's without merit.

 

[Corby78]

I don’t think it’s just Michkov who’d fit that bill if that’s who you’re referring to.

Benson has a great statistical profile which gives him a high probability of turning into a star player and a lot of mocks have him available at 8. And there’s probably another player or two available at that pick that has a great chance of turning into something special.

Dvorsky is who a lot of people see Washington taking and I wouldn’t be as thrilled about this pick, at least based on his numbers to date. Seems like a safe pick to become an NHLer but his numbers point to a lower ceiling type two-way player. Perhaps the same level of impact as someone like Dylan Strome, who was available for free.

With where Washington is they either need to supplement the roster they have now (I.e. trade the pick), or they need to draft a player that has a good chance to become the next franchise player. I’ll be highly disappointed if they play it safe.

Pronman in May is the only guy I’ve seen have benson lower than 7 and he had him at 17 for some crazy reason. The top 6 in this draft all have the possibility to be special, but they aren’t projected to be “legitimate all stars” there is only one guy who already has that title on him and he is going first. Will others become all stars from this draft? Absolutely but we won’t know who for a while.

We need legitimate top six prospects, and we can get that at 8 in this draft. It would be dumb IMO to draft a D or trade that pick unless we are offered a haul. Not saying I’m not open to a trade down or up, I always am. But it would need to be good.

 

[twabby]

The last franchise player selected eight or later is, uh, maybe Jason Robertson in 2017? Six years ago. You're going to want them to trade the pick unless Michkov slides. Which, as an Ovechkin fan, makes a ton of sense. And it might even make sense for the franchise depending on the strength of the trade market and their pressure to turn things around.

A Benson or Perreault could put up a lot of points and do some good things in the regular season at least if all goes right but that doesn't in itself equal franchise player. It's a main component in a star but the strings attached with those two more slight talents physically may not align with an Ovechkin Era competitive timeline. Even beyond that timeframe you wonder about the fit and whether they'd readily look to build around a finesse type winger. With Michkov the impact is more undeniable. Those two? Not the same level of electricity and it's typically not a recipe for success or the primary component in a Cup winner. Teams traditionally look to build down the middle and if that's the route they go over a flashier talent I don't think it's without merit.

I’m not 100% sold on Benson being a franchise talent based on his numbers but I think he’s a better bet than others who may be available at #8 aside from Michkov of course.

I’m far less concerned about size and speed than most. That stuff always ends up mattering far less than production. Smart, talented players almost always find a way around their limitations. Robertson dropped because his skating looked silly. DeBrincat dropped because he’s small. Kucherov dropped because, well I don’t know why. That was a long time ago. He produced like a superstar before he was drafted. Same with Marner.

Benson produces like these guys produced and each had their own limitations that they’ve overcome. Obviously Michkov is the golden goose because when it comes purely to production only Bedard is a step above him in the draft. But I think Benson in particular has a great chance to become as impactful as the guys listed above. I’d much rather they take a swing at that rather than getting a player who can safely be projected as top 6 but with little chance of becoming a superstar.

I do suspect both Benson and Michkov will be off the board by #8 at which point I would probably opt to trade the pick if there’s something that could immediately help the team. That’s been my inclination all along though it’s not set in stone if the market just isn’t there. I just don’t want a safe pick at #8 simply because they need top 6 players in 3-4 years. Top 6 guys are always available elsewhere. Vegas’s entire top 6 was acquired outside of the entry draft and they’ve been one of the best teams in the league since their inception. Florida has one guy (Barkov) in their top 6 that they drafted.

Be aggressive in the draft to get superstar players, and then be aggressive in trades/free agency to fill out those spots to play alongside the stars. I’d rather they swing and miss on the next Kucherov instead of guaranteeing themselves their future 2C. They just got a 2C off the scrap heap in Strome. There will be plenty of opportunities to do that in the future without having to draft and develop that player. There aren’t very many opportunities to get the next Kucherov or Robertson or Marner.