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GDT: 2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread

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Anyone else getting sick of mock drafts with the statements “Ovie gets his center?” Not saying we don’t need one but it kinda pisses me off that people act like he never had a C. It was the very next draft….
 
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I hate all these mockdrafts and talk about Mitchkov dropping to us. Makes me feel like ive been screwed 3 times with false hopes for a season.

False hopes of making the playoffs.
False hopes of winning the draft lottery.
False hopes of Michkov dropping to 8.

Its hard to get excited for Dvorsky or Reinbacher after over a month of talking about Michkov. This is the guy we fantasized a couple years back but never really thought would be in the mix.

To double down on it im sure Michkov actually drops just to see us passing him for a goalie or whatever.
 
Roshi said:
I hate all these mockdrafts and talk about Mitchkov dropping to us. Makes me feel like ive been screwed 3 times with false hopes for a season.

False hopes of making the playoffs.
False hopes of winning the draft lottery.
False hopes of Michkov dropping to 8.

Its hard to get excited for Dvorsky or Reinbacher after over a month of talking about Michkov. This is the guy we fantasized a couple years back but never really thought would be in the mix.

To double down on it im sure Michkov actually drops just to see us passing him for a goalie or whatever.
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passing on michkov for a goalie? Lmfao. I have my doubts on Michkov falling personally but it’s a more likely possibility than one would think, especially considering every big talking head has mentioned teams are scared of picking him
 
I agree with the BPA approach but who do Ross Mahoney and staff think is BPA when we get to 8???

I see a lot of variability with expert/amateur ratings and mocks, so I would not be surprised if one or even two teams ahead of us go off the board a little (e.g. someone thinks Wood will be the next Tage Thompson...). That and if someone ahead of us goes D it could mean one or both of Smith/Leonard could be there at 8.

If we did get one of those top ranked C we could get more aggressive in trying to move Kuzy to teams that follow on the floor. Getting a second 1st rounder especially in the top 25) would be great.

Benson/Moore definitely seem like great additions if they are BPA at 8. I'm definitely not sold on Dvorsky or going D at 8.
 
AlexBrovechkin8 said:
Danny Nelson can play both center or defense? Is that a typo and should be center or wing? I’ve never seen that before in a scouting report.

Also, Danny Nelson sounds more like a relief pitcher for the Nats than a pro hockey player but I digress.
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He can play both F&D, Brent Burns is probably the most recent successful example.
 
Marshall said:
Not always a huge fan of Prongman, but starting at 38:37 or so in today's Athletic Prospect podcast he does a good job explaining how Michkov's situation is different than Miroshnichenko's. Provides solid context.
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Is there a link for that or is it buried in that mock draft article?
 



Second one is the recent interview with Briere. He also admitted he still had homework to do on Michkov, which likely remains the case for every front office in the 4-7 spots. You'd think four spots is too many for his talent to slide but there's expectation for him to be gone and there's being the one to step up and stop a slide. It should happen at 5 at the latest but there are competitive appeals for Reinbacher/Dvorsky/Leonard. They're selections sacrificing pure offensive upside but gaining in other areas like size, handedness, position, physicality and/or defense. A team that wants pure star power down the line? Well, the choice is easy...but front offices don't always look at it solely from that lens. Add in geopolitical uncertainty and it may require ownership approval. It's probably not a big deal for Montreal but Arizona or Philadelphia? That may be a different story.

GMs in the 5-7 spots should at least feign interest to gauge the trade market and drum up demand. The Caps may well need to trade up, perhaps adding the 40th pick and more if they're dead set on it. If recent history is any indication it's something that wouldn't be at all surprising if he's indeed their target. As much as they could use a center like Dvorsky it's hard to imagine Plan A not being adding Michkov. (Out of any draft-centered target anyway...there may be certain trade targets depending on how the draft falls that become solid business.)
 
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Unless they have some reliable information that suggests Michkov can get here earlier than is being advertised, I contend it's better to not offer this year's 40th to move up, and just go with BPA at 8OA, and get another of the good young talent in this draft at 40 (even if my pipe dream of landing another 1st with a Kuzy move doesn't happen).

If management wants to get quality young talent contributing in the lineup ASAP to coincide with Ovi's last years, it might make more sense to try and move up from 40 if there is a target. Remember, we have THREE 2nd round picks already in 2025, and one/some of those could help us get a second player high on our list this year. Or maybe even a 2nd second round pick this year in the top 45 (Detroit has 41,42, & 43, and maybe they are happy to spread out their second round riches).

That said, I would think it would be reasonable to use one/some of the 2025 2nds to move up from 8OA this year.

Lots of good talent available this year.
 
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I don't know that they'd value organizational depth over star power, even if the former is up to three years away. There's a case to stay put, of course, and dare teams to take Michkov earlier. But I don't think based on their tendencies they'd value something like Dvorsky and Gulyayev/Ratzlaff/Perron/Gauthier (something along those lines at 40) more than Michkov. Michkov is a relatively easy sell to the fanbase, particularly those that like intriguing Russian talents and the mere promise of a developing offensive star. There's a chance a legit first rounder slides to 40 or they could bundle something to move up further from 40 but I don't know who even in the late 20's would be extremely appealing. Simashev, Gulyayev or But could slide but it's a bit deeper in the woods prioritizing in that direction for a club that's got more of a dire need for needle movers.

There's urgency to improve but the draft isn't the time to lack patience. If that's the mentality the pick should be moved for a Nylander/Ehlers/Konecny or something. Three years is a while to wait, of course. But what would they be getting an extra year or two earlier? A developing middle six center in Dvorsky? A couple of lighter middle sixers in Benson or Moore? Whatever the alternative I doubt there would be substantial enough a differential in '24-26 to offset the difference thereafter. Michkov certainly wouldn't solve all of their problems. They're going to have big issues at center and defense potentially if substantial pieces aren't added in the coming years. But this is probably their best chance at a star talent. Star talent isn't everything but picks 8+40 however they want to play it they do need to come away with talent that adds some swagger back. Not sure I'd expect Dvorsky/Benson/Moore and a late first/early second pick to do that so much. It's possible. But I'd probably rather either trade those picks for immediate help or land the highest upside player they can realistically land.
 
All reasonable points and we really don't have a clue what staff are thinking and who they value on their list.

I guess I come from the perspective that chasing the star name can come with too high a cost (extreme example is Garth Snow offering up all his picks). And great teams often have great success with depth - and McDavid hasn't even been to the Cup finals.

If just one team ahead of us takes a D and another takes Dvorsky we could get one of Smith/Leonard/Benson, any of which could be a star 1st line player for a long time. If we could somehow also get someone else we covet as a late 1st/early second it could be a significant boost to the retool in, say, two years.

Honzek/But/ Stenberg/Sawchyn/Gauthier/Yager/Willander could be potentially available late 1st/early second. They may not be star potential level, but having that prospect depth sooner helps a lot. On the other hand, maybe we see something others don't in one of those (or others) and can snag a steal who can contribute more sooner.

And I also think that Ovi might WANT to play longer than his current contract so that could mean aiming to be Cup competitive a little later rather than sooner. He may have had some input on that but it's just pure speculation based on how much he loves playing.

All we can do is speculate.
 
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Smith will be long gone. Leonard may be also. Hell, even Willander and Honzek are getting some top 10 talk late. Benson or Moore seem more likely at 8, if not Dvorsky, you'd think. Benson or Moore could pop. There's a lot to like. But I'd be surprised if they don't have Michkov essentially on par with Fantilli/Carlsson/Smith at least. I doubt they'll have Leonard/Dvorsky/Benson/Moore ranked on that level. This early that's a talent to move up for if it doesn't require a considerable cost. The ETA could be a factor. Maybe the additional season or two waiting is decisive opting for something else. But I think it's more likely than not given their tendencies that they'd be tempted to be aggressive to add him. It's worth a relatively early second to secure if that's what it takes. It's an extremely rare opportunity to be this close to that level a talent. You'd think they won't expect to be so proximate any time soon unless they happen to get a lot wrong. All of which adds up in favor of trying to take advantage of the opportunity.

They could play it another way. They could methodically target more stout all-around competitive talents. They could add a Dvorsky and perhaps But/Strbak/Price/Halttunen/Stramel giving them something closer to playoff size and jam in the coming years. Would they be as confident coming out of the draft with something like that? I'd be surprised.
 
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Please don't get me wrong, I absolutely agree that Michkov is above Leonard/Dvorsky/Benson/Moore, and it would be great if we could get him, and especially if we could get him over sooner than everyone expects (which maybe possible for the Caps more than any other team).

My concern is giving up THIS years 2nd. I'd be comfortable to dangle one of the 2025 2nds. If someone is going to pass on Michkov for our 40th they weren't going to take him anyways, so I would start with the 2025.

Maybe we can agree that doing a 2025 2nd to move up for Michkov, plus finding a dance parter for Kuzy for a 1st in the 15 -30 range for someone falling who we love, plus keeping the 40 is the dream outcome.

All could be moot If someone above us is set on Michkov.
 
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Another angle we could try to get another 1st for this year is offer next year's 1st protected plus one or even two of the 2025 2nds to a team that has two 1sts this year, and maybe got their guy with the first one (and already have a well stocked prospect pool).

There could be a lot of floor activity attempted with this draft by a number of teams. Should be fascinating to watch.
 
I'm not sure '25 seconds carry that much value. At the deadline they might. Those picks are so far off I doubt they grab much attention unless a team is in for prolonged suckage. Teams like DET/CHI with all of their seconds this year are more persuasive but even that assumes quality depth which may be debatable for some. It's probably quite true that if a team takes the 40th pick to move down a few spots they weren't taking Michkov anyway. But that would at least pass the buck as far as value a bit. For some maybe it doesn't matter, they'll hold their ground, take the BPA on their board and move on. Montreal may not want to even move back three picks and risk losing a prime target. You never know. Montreal may just end up taking Michkov and the idea is moot.

As much as this class is heralded at the top, I'm not super bullish on its secondary depth. Some of it is a function of keying in on a different category than usual and expectation levels amping up. As much as they do need to build primarily through the draft it's also very difficult to execute consistently and place extremely high expectations on it (esp. an org. like them operating under such urgency). I do like options like Ritchie, Simashev, Brindley, But, Edstrom and Gulyayev who could all be excellent value in the 20's. But I'm not sure I'd move a possible top 20 pick next year to land one. The argument is strongest for one of the two Russian LD given existing depth and their upside but a Molendyk/Price could be just as strong value at 40. They're all so far out from being solutions that it's hard to rationalize being extremely aggressive with likely marginal differences. With Michkov it's a rare enough opportunity. They certainly like to Get Their Guy but later in the draft it hasn't proven to be a great routine tendency.

More likely I'd guess if the '24 first is moved, even with conditions, it's more likely for immediate help. The Caps also need to be mindful of prospect spacing. They could use a next wave but are nearing the point of oversaturation in the bottom six. Most any forward prospect will start there and they'll only have so many spots free. LD and goaltending would likely be the best positional openings at 40 or the 20's in terms of system opportunity. They need to be primarily focused on impact and moves that promise to elevate their ceiling substantially in the waning seasons of this group. I'm not sure I'd place those expectations on a player in the 20's. Someone could emerge but targeting another Sandin opportunity seems more up their alley if they're to be aggressive cashing in on later picks IMO.
 
ArmadilloThumb said:
Please don't get me wrong, I absolutely agree that Michkov is above Leonard/Dvorsky/Benson/Moore, and it would be great if we could get him, and especially if we could get him over sooner than everyone expects (which maybe possible for the Caps more than any other team).

My concern is giving up THIS years 2nd. I'd be comfortable to dangle one of the 2025 2nds. If someone is going to pass on Michkov for our 40th they weren't going to take him anyways, so I would start with the 2025.

Maybe we can agree that doing a 2025 2nd to move up for Michkov, plus finding a dance parter for Kuzy for a 1st in the 15 -30 range for someone falling who we love, plus keeping the 40 is the dream outcome.

All could be moot If someone above us is set on Michkov.
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To move up to get Michkov, next years first would be required, at least.

8th to 4th - 2024 first, plus 2023 second

If the fourth pick is being shopped, the cost will be astronomical.
 
The "other team" issue for teams at 3/4/5/6 is if you take assets from the Caps to move down to 8, they run a big honkin' risk of not getting your preferred player (or maybe you miss out on two at the top of your list). You would have to guess/trust that the player they want is not going to be taken before 8 OA.

So yeah, the premium for that would be huge. You then have to ask where does that price become stupid counterproductive for us and acceptable for them. A 1st? 2 1sts? 3 1sts? All our picks (Garth Snow says hi)?

That is not an issue at 7 if Philly doesn't want him, so in that situation maybe a 2025 2nd is reasonable.

Literally, a 2025 2nd got the Stars Max Domi and they are pretty happy about him right now, so at least there is one recent comparable for negotiation.
 
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