GDT: 2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Michkof isnt falling to us

One can dream.

As long as the Caps scouting staff isn’t feeling they are smarter than everyone else and attempt to take another Sasha Polulok, we should end up with a good player.

 

[Langway]

Good post here summarizing a recent Pronman/Peters podcast and their thoughts on the top 10. Leonard, Reinbacher & Dvorsky being the most likely top options after the top five group seems like a very prevalent belief.

I still have a hard time taking Reinbacher at 8 if MIchkov/Leonard/Dvorsky are gone. Solid two-way instincts for a D his age but the near-term upgrade over current RD is pretty minimal. TVR could slide over but with Iorio coming along pretty nicely it's hard to see vast upgrade potential. Not like they're likely to move Carlson while the chase to 895 is on and the other two RD have experience on their side at least.

Benson's season is over after Winnipeg lost in five. With tenacity becoming so coveted you wonder if Benson at his size is even a prime option at 8. Solid player, fine value in isolation but not a blazing skater at his size so he doesn't altogether fit as a player you build around per se. That comment by MacLellan sticks with me. Maybe it was a throwaway comment, salesmanship on his part, but even in a solid draft it's an odd characterization for a team in their current stage. Michkov, okay, you can in time build around him. In time being the key. But are you going to be building around even Dvorsky or Leonard in the near-term? Seems like a very optimistic assessment of what they'll be adding. Both are solid competitors and perhaps very healthy culture adds but it seems unlikely they'd drive an NHL second-line as central pieces in the next year or two. It makes me wonder if the pick won't be moved for immediate help up front unless Michkov slides to them. With so many holes up front you wonder just how patient they can afford to be waiting on someone that may not possess elite upside. Whoever they get for the pick may not be a cornerstone player either but they'd at least be adding something of a sure thing and an immediate boost. A lot to sort on the salary front but they should be wide open for business.

The next best thing as for as dawgs go after Dvorsky & Leonard is still Moore for me. There are options with more size but some knocks on their pace of play maybe limiting upside. Others like Benson and Perreault may present more theoretical offensive upside but as wingers they seem less impactful all-around and do carry some questions re: heaviness. If they want a cornerstone type piece then Moore stands out most as an aspirational target for a true 200 ft. difference maker. Dvorsky/Leonard/Moore have the competitive DNA and tools to be very solid second-liners...but I do really wonder whether immediacy won't win out.

 

[BenchBrawl]

I'm a Montreal fan and I'll descend into a violent psychosis if MTL's brass doesn't pick Michkov at 5th (if available).

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Good post here summarizing a recent Pronman/Peters podcast and their thoughts on the top 10. Leonard, Reinbacher & Dvorsky being the most likely top options after the top five group seems like a very prevalent belief.

I still have a hard time taking Reinbacher at 8 if MIchkov/Leonard/Dvorsky are gone. Solid two-way instincts for a D his age but the near-term upgrade over current RD is pretty minimal. TVR could slide over but with Iorio coming along pretty nicely it's hard to see vast upgrade potential. Not like they're likely to move Carlson while the chase to 895 is on and the other two RD have experience on their side at least.

Benson's season is over after Winnipeg lost in five. With tenacity becoming so coveted you wonder if Benson at his size is even a prime option at 8. Solid player, fine value in isolation but not a blazing skater at his size so he doesn't altogether fit as a player you build around per se. That comment by MacLellan sticks with me. Maybe it was a throwaway comment, salesmanship on his part, but even in a solid draft it's an odd characterization for a team in their current stage. Michkov, okay, you can in time build around him. In time being the key. But are you going to be building around even Dvorsky or Leonard in the near-term? Seems like a very optimistic assessment of what they'll be adding. Both are solid competitors and perhaps very healthy culture adds but it seems unlikely they'd drive an NHL second-line as central pieces in the next year or two. It makes me wonder if the pick won't be moved for immediate help up front unless Michkov slides to them. With so many holes up front you wonder just how patient they can afford to be waiting on someone that may not possess elite upside. Whoever they get for the pick may not be a cornerstone player either but they'd at least be adding something of a sure thing and an immediate boost. A lot to sort on the salary front but they should be wide open for business.

The next best thing as for as dawgs go after Dvorsky & Leonard is still Moore for me. There are options with more size but some knocks on their pace of play maybe limiting upside. Others like Benson and Perreault may present more theoretical offensive upside but as wingers they seem less impactful all-around and do carry some questions re: heaviness. If they want a cornerstone type piece then Moore stands out most as an aspirational target for a true 200 ft. difference maker. Dvorsky/Leonard/Moore have the competitive DNA and tools to be very solid second-liners...but I do really wonder whether immediacy won't win out.

BMac has said multiple times they are making the pick. I’d take him at his word.

I’m no expert but I don’t think I’ve seen any pundits even have Moore in their top 10.

 

[YippieKaey]

I'm a Montreal fan and I'll descend into a violent psychosis if MTL's brass doesn't pick Michkov at 5th (if available).

So you'll turn into a Vancouver fan?

 

[Langway]

BMac has said multiple times they are making the pick. I’d take him at his word.

I’m no expert but I don’t think I’ve seen any pundits even have Moore in their top 10.

We'll see. I don't think it's a lock. It depends on their assessment of the options outside of Michkov, how the board falls and what their trade options are. Even in a relatively strong draft I don't think it can be ruled out given where they are.

Re: Moore industry consensus has him as more of an 11-15 guy but to me it's partially fit and faith in his fundamentals. Being arguably the best skater of the draft is a good place to start, as is his willingness to accept a role for the good of the team and adapt to some extent. There are some risks as far as processing as quickly as he skates offensively but outside of maybe Reinbacher everyone after Dvorsky/Leonard has some questions. And, again, even with Reinbacher there's the can of worms of how best to maximize his skill set, almost rearranging the blueline while remaining highly competitive as he adapts. That's a tough one. It's about what strengths to prioritize, what downside risks to accept and what skills to bank on when projecting. What an aging team is most likely to need are pacier talents more able to do the dirty work. Dvorsky and Leonard provide that. Moore would help quite a bit in not just backchecking but retrievals, faceoffs, PK. A lot of the underlying stuff that helps enable crisper pace across the board. And then also, yeah, a lot of offensive upside on top of that should his offensive play fully catch up to his pace down the line. It's a rare enough skillset that he should be considered at least a borderline top 10 guy.

Benson is looking to be perhaps the biggest late slider. He may have more offensive upside or offensive consistency than Moore but the size/skating/positional value makes it hard to be sold on his all-around ceiling and projection. Will his playmaking compensate for potential shortcomings at 2C? How easily will he manage to overcome a lack of size and get interior? He's engaged defensively but does he stand to be a strong defender at his size against men? He's a lot more well-rounded than a couple of the dodgier offensive analytic princes in Cristal/Perreault but it's still a big question. It's been two years for a guy like Guenther to gain traction in Arizona and he's a better talent. I believe Benson is AHL eligible after next season and it's likely when his pro adjustment really begins. Not a lock IMO.

Ideally Reinbacher goes top 7, at least one of the prime forward trio remains and it's perhaps an easy decision. But if not and the board goes against them it may not be clear-cut. If they aren't as bullish on remaining options and there are strong trade offers they'd be foolish to rule it out. Even in a pretty strong draft it's hard to say you're definitely landing a foundational piece at 8. At their stage of play they've got to be critical how best to utilize that asset since it's their biggest card to play. I'd readily invest in one of the trio of forwards or perhaps Moore as a raw upside play. But with so many teams looking to restructure the promise of the options at 8 could outweigh the reality down the line. Certainly within the next 3-4 years at least a readymade top six NHLer could be a vast improvement. And by then maybe they'll have much bigger issues to sort out than one less young piece.

 

[pman25]

How much is skating really an issue at draft? Like what are some of the best players who were labeled terrible skaters in their draft years?

What do the spreadsheets say?

 

[pman25]

Some off the board selections to consider that haven’t been discussed much here as of late: Matthew Wood, Eduard Sale, Nate Danielson, Brayden Yager, Colby Barlow. Doubt it’s one of these guys but Matthew Wood might be one I wouldn’t be shocked to go top 10.

Leonard, Dvorsky, Benson, Michkov are commonly mocked to Caps. Reinbacher too. Moore seems a few picks behind but not exactly out of place at 8

Dark horse - Perreault

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Some off the board selections to consider that haven’t been discussed much here as of late: Matthew Wood, Eduard Sale, Nate Danielson, Brayden Yager, Colby Barlow. Doubt it’s one of these guys but Matthew Wood might be one I wouldn’t be shocked to go top 10.

Leonard, Dvorsky, Benson, Michkov are commonly mocked to Caps. Reinbacher too. Moore seems a few picks behind but not exactly out of place at 8

Dark horse - Perreault

I wouldn’t be shocked if Barlow goes top 10. He certainly fits the profile of the types of players the Caps covet. I think there are better talents to be had at 8 but the Caps sometimes dance to the beat of their own drum.

 

[Kalopsia]

Ideally Reinbacher goes top 7, at least one of the prime forward trio remains and it's perhaps an easy decision. But if not and the board goes against them it may not be clear-cut. If they aren't as bullish on remaining options and there are strong trade offers they'd be foolish to rule it out. Even in a pretty strong draft it's hard to say you're definitely landing a foundational piece at 8. At their stage of play they've got to be critical how best to utilize that asset since it's their biggest card to play. I'd readily invest in one of the trio of forwards or perhaps Moore as a raw upside play. But with so many teams looking to restructure the promise of the options at 8 could outweigh the reality down the line. Certainly within the next 3-4 years at least a readymade top six NHLer could be a vast improvement. And by then maybe they'll have much bigger issues to sort out than one less young piece.

In the worst case scenario where Michkov, Leonard, and Dvorsky are all gone by 8, I wonder if a team in the 10-12 range would pay to jump up and grab Reinbacher? Yotes could send 12 and 38, then hopefully Moore’s still there at 12.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

Some off the board selections to consider that haven’t been discussed much here as of late: Matthew Wood, Eduard Sale, Nate Danielson, Brayden Yager, Colby Barlow. Doubt it’s one of these guys but Matthew Wood might be one I wouldn’t be shocked to go top 10.

Leonard, Dvorsky, Benson, Michkov are commonly mocked to Caps. Reinbacher too. Moore seems a few picks behind but not exactly out of place at 8

Dark horse - Perreault

With the Caps spot I hope they get Dvorsky.

 

[Corby78]

In the worst case scenario where Michkov, Leonard, and Dvorsky are all gone by 8, I wonder if a team in the 10-12 range would pay to jump up and grab Reinbacher? Yotes could send 12 and 38, then hopefully Moore’s still there at 12.

I’m hoping somebody before the caps takes Reinbacher and bumps one of the Cs to 8.

 

[trick9]

Hard to see Reinbacher being there @ 8 so for people who doesn't want him that likely isn't an issue. Either Montreal or Arizona most likely take him with the hopes of him developing like Seider (who also was a 'reach' at 6 while back).

I'd hope the team who doesn't draft him out of those take Dvorsky. With him there is a chance that he’s the next Kopitar but propably a bigger chance that he's closer to 2nd line center rather than top-line one. Which is risk some teams are certainly willing to take as he has a higher floor than some but given where this team is going to be in few years we desperately need to aim for a guy that has the potential to be a game-breaking talent. I don't really see that in Dvorsky. If there is a question mark for Reinbacher's production it should be mentioned that he still put up 22 points in 46 games in one of top leagues in Europe. Year ago he put up 11 points in 27 games in 2nd tier league in Switzerland. Dvorsky is 8 months younger so it's hard to compare the 2 but Dvorsky did have just 14 points in 38 games in Swedish 2nd tier league. He's a tough player to judge because his numbers are ridiculous when playing against juniors but really underwhelming when playing against men. He is basically right now at where Reinbacher was year ago. He needs to take a huge leap and flourish in a big role for an SHL team to reach where Reinbacher is at right now. Then you are hoping for that another leap when he reaches the NHL-level (which is basically where Reinbacher sits now).

I get the positional need and i've been banging on that C drum for years. But where we sit now is that we need help everywhere in few years. They need to for whoever is the BPA. Passing out on D because you have 2 good RD's who are 33 at the start of next season is silly. Our drafting has been ass for an decade so drafting a BPA over positional needs should be a no-brainer.

That being said i hope both Dvorsky and Reinbacher are gone before we go to the podium.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I've been Michkov or Benson for a while and nothing has really changed for me.

 

[Kalopsia]

Hard to see Reinbacher being there @ 8 so for people who doesn't want him that likely isn't an issue. Either Montreal or Arizona most likely take him with the hopes of him developing like Seider (who also was a 'reach' at 6 while back).

I'd hope the team who doesn't draft him out of those take Dvorsky. With him there is a chance that he’s the next Kopitar but propably a bigger chance that he's closer to 2nd line center rather than top-line one. Which is risk some teams are certainly willing to take as he has a higher floor than some but given where this team is going to be in few years we desperately need to aim for a guy that has the potential to be a game-breaking talent. I don't really see that in Dvorsky. If there is a question mark for Reinbacher's production it should be mentioned that he still put up 22 points in 46 games in one of top leagues in Europe. Year ago he put up 11 points in 27 games in 2nd tier league in Switzerland. Dvorsky is 8 months younger so it's hard to compare the 2 but Dvorsky did have just 14 points in 38 games in Swedish 2nd tier league. He's a tough player to judge because his numbers are ridiculous when playing against juniors but really underwhelming when playing against men. He is basically right now at where Reinbacher was year ago. He needs to take a huge leap and flourish in a big role for an SHL team to reach where Reinbacher is at right now. Then you are hoping for that another leap when he reaches the NHL-level (which is basically where Reinbacher sits now).

I get the positional need and i've been banging on that C drum for years. But where we sit now is that we need help everywhere in few years. They need to for whoever is the BPA. Passing out on D because you have 2 good RD's who are 33 at the start of next season is silly. Our drafting has been ass for an decade so drafting a BPA over positional needs should be a no-brainer.

That being said i hope both Dvorsky and Reinbacher are gone before we go to the podium.

Filip Forsberg (also a late birthday for his draft year) put up 17 points in 43 games in the Allsvenskan in his pre-draft year. Dvorsky's 14 in 38 is pretty strong production for a 17 year old in that league.

 

[usiel]

No idea these guys pedigree but if you enjoy mock draft videos:

 

[usiel]

I've been Michkov or Benson for a while and nothing has really changed for me.

I've sort of come around to Benson due to is apparent motor on top of his skills.

 

[pman25]

Zach Benson seems pretty great at pick 8 and I would take him there. Edges and speed look pretty good here. I’d expect that to only improve. While he may slide for whatever reason I’d be very on board in stopping that slide

 

[Corby78]

Zach Benson seems pretty great at pick 8 and I would take him there. Edges and speed look pretty good here. I’d expect that to only improve. While he may slide for whatever reason I’d be very on board in stopping that slide

Yeah, from what I've read the only issues is he is a bit smaller and doesn't have great faceoff skills. Neither of those are deal breakers to me. He is one of the 6 guys that most sites sight as a good bet for first line. Guys like Lenard, Barlow, Dvorksy, Moore etc.. all seem to scouted as two-way second line guys.

 

[Devil Dancer]

Faceoff skill is a total nonconsideration for me.

 

[Vilica]

Wheeler and Pronman did a 2 round mock and had the Caps taking Michkov at 8 and Danny Nelson at 40 (the pick at 28 they traded for Sandin was Oscar Fisker Morgaard). CB AF WS LC RL DR DD was order in front of them.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

If I'm the Caps, I am absolutely muddying the waters with Michkov and anonymously sourcing information that he will fullfill his entire KHL contract - three more years - and even then, it is not a guarantee that he will come over. This type of tactical game happens in the NFL draft every year (except A LOT dirtier). If he falls to us, you bet your ass we are drafting him and I am willing to bet there's a contract buyout after a year.

 

[usiel]

If I'm the Caps, I am absolutely muddying the waters with Michkov and anonymously sourcing information that he will fullfill his entire KHL contract - three more years - and even then, it is not a guarantee that he will come over. This type of tactical game happens in the NFL draft every year (except A LOT dirtier). If he falls to us, you bet your ass we are drafting him and I am willing to bet there's a contract buyout after a year.

Would be fun to drink HFBoard's Hab's fans tear if they passed on Michkov.

Though would be hilarious if Michkov dropped to the caps and they passed and seeing the reaction here.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Would be fun to drink HFBoard's Hab's fans tear if they passed on Michkov.

Though would be hilarious if Michkov dropped to the caps and they passed and seeing the reaction here.

I am likely biased, but I don't see a better fit in the top-10 than Washington for Michkov. Given our organization, culture, & history with successful Russian-born players and bringing them over too.

I hope that we can make it happen (however much of a pipe dream it is). Perfect fit.

 

[pman25]

Yeah, from what I've read the only issues is he is a bit smaller and doesn't have great faceoff skills. Neither of those are deal breakers to me. He is one of the 6 guys that most sites sight as a good bet for first line. Guys like Lenard, Barlow, Dvorksy, Moore etc.. all seem to scouted as two-way second line guys.

Well I think Benson is a winger. You don’t draft him to be a center anyway. Wouldn’t rule it out, but he’s probably a LW. Which is fine by me, I’ll take any top end forward