CapitalsCupReality
It’s Go Time!!
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GDT: 2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread
- Thread starter Langway
- Start date
ArmadilloThumb
Registered User
- Apr 20, 2018
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Twabby, I respect your player analyses, always well reasoned. I disagree, though, with any notion of trading this pick.
If Benson and Michkov are gone it's also possible one of Dvorsky and Reinbacher are also gone. You might also get someone go off the board and try and grab Wood or Honzek before our pick, thinking they might be getting the next Tage Thompson.
If that happened we possibly have a choice between Smith/Leonard, who I definitely consider a tier above Benson/Dvorsky/Moore. Who knows what will happen and what other teams think?
My list of those who we might have at least some tiny or greater chance of falling to us, who I like, in order, would be:
Michkov
Smith/Leonard
Benson
Dvorsky/Moore
Who knows what Mahoney et al are thinking. Maybe they have increasing nightmares of the memories of trading down two spots to take LuJo - and maybe that makes us go off the board a touch and go for a big'un like Wood/Honzek (because the spot we traded down from was used to take... Tage Thompson).
It's going to be both fun and nerve-wracking. I hope we are all pleased when it's done!!
twabby
Registered User
- Mar 9, 2010
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There will be a lot of moving parts and I don't think they can reasonably trade the #8 pick until the draft starts and they see how the pieces fall. I'm not suggesting trading it now or before the draft. It'd have to be a draft day deal IMO.
FWIW I would be floored if Will Smith falls to #8. I'd put him in that superstar tier according to his current production.
Michkov has the talent for someone to trade up but will the entire Michkov package scare a bunch of would-be suitors off? As shitty as the situation is, especially for the woman involved, the Nichushkin saga might be the best thing to happen for Washington if it adds another check against drafting Russian players for some teams. The police body camera footage was just released from the incident was just released and there’s this weird interaction at the end where the Colorado trainer asks to speak with the cop confidentially about a mental health issue related to Nuke and that’s where the video cuts out. Obviously hope everyone is ok but this is a really strange situation and it’s not terrible timing for the Caps if teams are looking for an excuse not to draft a Russian.
That said, I’m worried about Detroit trying to jump to 6 or 7 to grab him. I don’t think anyone is trading out of the top five but Yzerman has to be feeling the heat given their underperformance and Detroit has 9OA plus the Islanders first rounder this year so they have the ammo to move up a spot or two and take Michkov. If you’re Keith Jones with Philly looking to make a good first impression, trading down two spots and getting another first out of it is a pretty good start.
@NobodyBeatsTheWiz I wonder about ASP. Really shooting up the draft boards and he’s super impressive but he kind of gives me Erik Brannstrom vibes. Brannstrom was the next star Swedish defenseman when he was drafted by Ottawa until he wasn’t, now it’s not clear if he will even stick in the NHL. ASP is actually smaller than Brannstrom too (5’9” 170 vs 5’10” 185) if you believe the posted measurements. This is why the draft is so fun, nobody knows shit!
That said, I’m worried about Detroit trying to jump to 6 or 7 to grab him. I don’t think anyone is trading out of the top five but Yzerman has to be feeling the heat given their underperformance and Detroit has 9OA plus the Islanders first rounder this year so they have the ammo to move up a spot or two and take Michkov. If you’re Keith Jones with Philly looking to make a good first impression, trading down two spots and getting another first out of it is a pretty good start.
@NobodyBeatsTheWiz I wonder about ASP. Really shooting up the draft boards and he’s super impressive but he kind of gives me Erik Brannstrom vibes. Brannstrom was the next star Swedish defenseman when he was drafted by Ottawa until he wasn’t, now it’s not clear if he will even stick in the NHL. ASP is actually smaller than Brannstrom too (5’9” 170 vs 5’10” 185) if you believe the posted measurements. This is why the draft is so fun, nobody knows shit!
Will Smith’s NHL comparable is none other than Evgeni Kuznetsov (the good version). I’d trip over myself taking him if he was available but he’s going top five. Carlsson may have jumped him to three but I don’t see how he gets by San Jose or Montreal.
ArmadilloThumb
Registered User
- Apr 20, 2018
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Imagine, in a few years one hypothetical mix:
Ovi - CCM - xxxx
Miro - Honzek/Wood - Wilson
Suzd - Protas - Strome/xxxx
Beck/xxxx - Hofer/xxxx - xxxx
Could easily move CCM down to 2C if we got one of Michkov/Smith/Leonard/Dvorsky and they fit in at 1C.
Or what if Protas becomes what he did in Prince Albert , basically a star 1st line C.
With the above, we have have traded Lapierre as part of a package for the 1RW (or the pick we use there). Add to that framework whoever we get at 40, plus next year's 1st (or whoever we trade that for - maybe in a deal along with Lapierre), or maybe even another top 25 pick we get this year for Kuzy.
There are a lot of paths to getting very, very competitive in 2 - 3 years without trading 8 OA.
Ovi - CCM - xxxx
Miro - Honzek/Wood - Wilson
Suzd - Protas - Strome/xxxx
Beck/xxxx - Hofer/xxxx - xxxx
Could easily move CCM down to 2C if we got one of Michkov/Smith/Leonard/Dvorsky and they fit in at 1C.
Or what if Protas becomes what he did in Prince Albert , basically a star 1st line C.
With the above, we have have traded Lapierre as part of a package for the 1RW (or the pick we use there). Add to that framework whoever we get at 40, plus next year's 1st (or whoever we trade that for - maybe in a deal along with Lapierre), or maybe even another top 25 pick we get this year for Kuzy.
There are a lot of paths to getting very, very competitive in 2 - 3 years without trading 8 OA.
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Langway
In den Wolken
- Jul 7, 2006
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I doubt Benson won't be available at 8. McKenzie had him at 8 in his lottery edition and he's been sliding rather than rising. Pronman has pretty consistently not had him going top 10 for a while and leans quite a bit on league scouts. Benson would be fine but doubtful he's a franchise player. He's not a pure finisher like a Caufield or DeBrincat (neither of whom are franchise players either IMO). He doesn't have Marchand's grit. He's not as brilliant as Kucherov. Drawing up a short list of very talented smaller wingers and saying he's the next is a bit presumptuous. Keller or Fiala may be stronger comparables. Also productive but not without some growing pains. Fair to wonder near-term how well it translates in the playoffs. Benson's motor is fairly promising but with his frame adding more grit and sturdiness ala Marchand will be key to be a more effectively assertive player with and without the puck.
Benson could perhaps help compensate for a lack of playmaking up the middle but structurally this center group will need real work to compete. Just because they lucked into Strome they can't expect that's going to be easy. It still very much remains to be seen what sort of quality they'll get out of Strome in the playoffs. FLA/VGK trading for much of their top six suggests really any high-end talent can be acquired by other means if a GM is bold and resourceful enough. It's then mostly about methodically building value and assets and being more exacting with self-assessment than others. (Also a fair bit of a luck.) But maximizing value isn't just about point production. It takes a special blend of skills and buy-in to succeed and produce when the pressure's on. Obviously they'd like to add the highest-end player at 8 but it's not as simple as boiling it down to raw offensive upside.
Overall I think the main qualities they'll be after are energy, character and determination. It's going to be just as much about the person, their work ethic and the transitional culture they're building. Areas like size and speed are certainly not immaterial. If a player can neither get to spots nor open up space for themselves they'll more easily be contained. (They'll also crucially be far easier to exploit defensively.) It takes everything. Opting for someone with a lesser offensive ceiling would be due to highly valuing strengths in other areas that can be just as instrumental for team success. If the playoffs show us anything it's that determination and size remain hugely relevant. It's not everything. Teams need soft skill within a heavier framework. They need to be deep and balanced but individual offensive skill level is just one component among many.
Benson could perhaps help compensate for a lack of playmaking up the middle but structurally this center group will need real work to compete. Just because they lucked into Strome they can't expect that's going to be easy. It still very much remains to be seen what sort of quality they'll get out of Strome in the playoffs. FLA/VGK trading for much of their top six suggests really any high-end talent can be acquired by other means if a GM is bold and resourceful enough. It's then mostly about methodically building value and assets and being more exacting with self-assessment than others. (Also a fair bit of a luck.) But maximizing value isn't just about point production. It takes a special blend of skills and buy-in to succeed and produce when the pressure's on. Obviously they'd like to add the highest-end player at 8 but it's not as simple as boiling it down to raw offensive upside.
Overall I think the main qualities they'll be after are energy, character and determination. It's going to be just as much about the person, their work ethic and the transitional culture they're building. Areas like size and speed are certainly not immaterial. If a player can neither get to spots nor open up space for themselves they'll more easily be contained. (They'll also crucially be far easier to exploit defensively.) It takes everything. Opting for someone with a lesser offensive ceiling would be due to highly valuing strengths in other areas that can be just as instrumental for team success. If the playoffs show us anything it's that determination and size remain hugely relevant. It's not everything. Teams need soft skill within a heavier framework. They need to be deep and balanced but individual offensive skill level is just one component among many.
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Todos a la Calle
Registered User
I'm intrigued by Moore. Would he be an off-the-board pick at #8?
And who is Leonard seen as comparable to?
Thanks for the insights.
And who is Leonard seen as comparable to?
Thanks for the insights.
Moore is my #1 “realistic shot” pick. He’s a fantastic skater, has a top tier shot and works both sides of the ice.
I doubt Michkov or Benson will actually be there.
twabby
Registered User
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It’s hard for me to say Benson isn’t as brilliant as Kucherov definitively when Kucherov slid to #58 overall. How did every team miss on Kucherov’s brilliance, and most teams miss on it twice if he was truly brilliant at the time? His production was always there yet it was simply overlooked because teams must have found something wrong with him stylistically. It sounds an awful lot like the knocks on Benson right now.
It’s just hard for me to put much stock in leadership, character, and determination when it comes to 18 year olds. Production is a much more translatable skill. Sure, use those other traits as tiebreakers but to prioritize them seems a bit unwise. Again, get those traits via trade or free agency if it comes to it.
twabby
Registered User
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Again this isn’t to say that Benson will for sure develop into something special. But his statistical profile is incredibly strong and I think it would be foolish to overlook it just because maybe he doesn’t look the part in certain ways. That’s exactly why good players drop and Washington would be foolish to pass on him if Michkov is off the board IMO.
But also- Benson does look the part. He’s pretty fun to watch. And he looks good in the spreadsheets. I’ll take him
If the draft plays out like:
Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Michkov, Smith, Leonard, Benson…
Then I’ve decided I want Matthew Wood as a home run swing over guys like Dvorsky, Moore, and Reinbacher. The skating can look goofy but his puck control, shot, IQ more than make up for it and he probably only just recently shot up in height and is still figuring out his size. It will improve. Everything else? It’s pretty legit.
The superstar comparison is probably Jason Robertson. He’s my #8 if the usual suspects are gone.
If the draft plays out like:
Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Michkov, Smith, Leonard, Benson…
Then I’ve decided I want Matthew Wood as a home run swing over guys like Dvorsky, Moore, and Reinbacher. The skating can look goofy but his puck control, shot, IQ more than make up for it and he probably only just recently shot up in height and is still figuring out his size. It will improve. Everything else? It’s pretty legit.
The superstar comparison is probably Jason Robertson. He’s my #8 if the usual suspects are gone.
Calicaps
NFA
LOLWUT? How can the Caps have nothing to do with it? He came here to join the Caps organization.
HTFN
Registered User
- Feb 8, 2009
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He literally opted out of the last year of his deal to go to Washington and the Caps have nothing to do with it?
Below is Wheelers latest draft ranking as of Sunday.
Seven to nine is Perreault/Dvorski/Moore.
Do like the idea of Simashev falling to potential reach for the Caps second round pick.
Seven to nine is Perreault/Dvorski/Moore.
Do like the idea of Simashev falling to potential reach for the Caps second round pick.
- Feb 13, 2019
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Pronman this morning posted his top 36 by pure upside, "Today’s article is not about realism. Today is about dreaming on what some of these players could ultimately become if a lot of things go right."
#1 was .... not Bedard.
theathletic.com
#1 was .... not Bedard.
Which NHL Draft prospects have the most upside? Corey Pronman ranks the top 36
These rankings are based on pure skill and remove factors that could weigh into which player goes where.
theathletic.com
- Feb 13, 2019
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EliteProspects released their NHL draft guide and David St. Louis, one of their lead analysts, has been posting and answering questions about it and draft prospects over on the main Prospects board. Interesting stuff and analyses.
forums.hfboards.com
The Elite Prospects NHL Draft guide is here!
The Elite Prospects Draft Guide is here, if you want to check it out. It contains 402 scouting reports, 1000s of game reports, quotes from NHL scouts, manually tracked stats, our 136 skaters ranking, and an in-depth explanation of how we made our list. We definitely think it’s our best guide...
Wasn’t it a clause baked into his contract that allowed him to and not so much something the team allowed him to do midway through his contract.
I thought I remembered reading somewhere that he had it added to the contract that if he wanted he could opt out to come play in NA in the final year.
Langway
In den Wolken
- Jul 7, 2006
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Should have just called that one 'The top 36 prospects I draw hearts around in my composition notebook.'
It's a good guide, lot of content.EliteProspects released their NHL draft guide and David St. Louis, one of their lead analysts, has been posting and answering questions about it and draft prospects over on the main Prospects board. Interesting stuff and analyses.
The Elite Prospects NHL Draft guide is here!
The Elite Prospects Draft Guide is here, if you want to check it out. It contains 402 scouting reports, 1000s of game reports, quotes from NHL scouts, manually tracked stats, our 136 skaters ranking, and an in-depth explanation of how we made our list. We definitely think it’s our best guide...
They have Oliver Moore at 8, Simashev at 10, Dvorsky 11, Quentin Musty at 12, and Gracyn Sawchyn at 13!!
Rayquaza64
McMichael>McDavid
I’m a big fan of Musty. Not sure if picking him at 8 would be smart but he’s going to be damn good
ClevelandCapsfan
Registered User
- May 24, 2021
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Per DETHOCKEYNOW.COM
San Jose: Several mock drafts have the Sharks taking Matvei Michkov with the No. 4 pick in the draft, but the Athletic projects them taking Will Smith or David Reinbacher if either of them available. It has been speculated that the Red Wings might be able to parlay some draft picks to move up into a place to land the dynamic Michkov. But those kind of trades don’t happen in the NHL with the frequency of the NFL. Not even close. San Jose Sharks.
San Jose: Several mock drafts have the Sharks taking Matvei Michkov with the No. 4 pick in the draft, but the Athletic projects them taking Will Smith or David Reinbacher if either of them available. It has been speculated that the Red Wings might be able to parlay some draft picks to move up into a place to land the dynamic Michkov. But those kind of trades don’t happen in the NHL with the frequency of the NFL. Not even close. San Jose Sharks.
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