I'd rather give a long term contract to the kid turning 24 rather than the guy turning 30.
Rumor: 2023-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Season Thread
- Thread starter forsbergavs32
- Start date
-
Xenforo Cloud is doing server maintenance Thurdsay 13th at 9 AM GMT. Downtime is to be expected during the process. Server changes were implemented recently to cope with the traffic surge last week. This seems to be affecting the user login, so please anyone experiencing this, log out and clear the browser cache. We expect to have this issue solved once the maintenance is complete.
- Status
I’m just not sure there is much of a choice with Toews. Byram has his own issues and G can’t replace him. If you want to keep the team as good as possible, you kinda have to keep Toews. It is likely to be rough down the line, but Avs have plenty of those contracts in the pipeline anyway.
LOFIN
Registered User
- Sep 16, 2011
- 19,216
- 28,362
Going to be interesting to see what Toews really wants. He could get a monster deal on the open market. But I've got a perception he really likes it here and he's on a really comfortable spot hockey wise. Top pair with the best defensman in the world, can he really be better somewhere else? He can certainly make more than what we can afford to give him...
NorthernAvsFan
Registered User
- Jun 25, 2014
- 1,837
- 4,354
The big key is Byram’s development this season.
If he elevates to top pair status, then the more economical move is to pair him with Makar moving forward and run G and Manson on the second pair.
If Byram doesn’t develop, then I think you look at resigning Toews and moving on from Girard.
Either way, they’ll likely have to move someone to have enough cap to field a good forward group.
If he elevates to top pair status, then the more economical move is to pair him with Makar moving forward and run G and Manson on the second pair.
If Byram doesn’t develop, then I think you look at resigning Toews and moving on from Girard.
Either way, they’ll likely have to move someone to have enough cap to field a good forward group.
GoNordiquesGo
Registered User
Its actually not as bad as expected.
It simply confirms that it is the last year of having those 5 Ds. That's if they all finish the year here... That might not happen, if some of the risky areas we have right now turn sour...
Depth is a luxury the Avs won't have until they can produce prospects. I recall Sakic saying, the year they let Saad walk, that the previous year's roster was the deepest they would have going forward. They made savy moves and won the cup that year, but he was right nonetheless.
Its the subsequent year that's gonna brutal (2025-26)... I always was a firm believer that the window was going to be longer than Mack's contract (arguably still up for debate but we'll see soon). But it won't be eternal... I think this year and next year will be similar to last year. Among the top teams in the league but with vulnerabilities, so success will depend on health, luck, hit/miss ratios, etc... but that subsequent year (25-26), with Rantanan, Byram, Johansen and Georgiev contracts all expiring could be brutal...
If we are talking about keeping this window open with this core, I'd rather sign the much better player, easily.
That said, I think Byram ends up getting significantly more than Toews on his next deal as well. My guesses for both is that Toews' gets 7x$7.5M, Byram gets 8x$9M.
- Apr 25, 2006
- 54,189
- 61,032
Are players from other teams getting waived yet so we can complete the Avs roster? 
- Apr 25, 2006
- 54,189
- 61,032
The good news is the Avs have another full season to evaluate Byram before making a decision on Toews.
Yeah… at the same point, the assets they could have gotten are not going to be there. Best will be a ufa sign and trade or a right trade. Which will be minimal.
Also, if Byram doesn’t take a step and doesn’t stay healthy… hands are tied on Toews. Have to pay him.
FTR I think the Avs have handled this well so far. They don’t really have a choice but to go this path. If Byram had taken the steps needed, then maybe they could have done something different. It just hasn’t worked out that way. You still have to try to contend so selling Toews shouldn’t be an option right now.
niwotsblessing
Registered User
I wonder if Byram is best served being on his own pairing with a Dman who will cover for him when he goes on offense? Manson is a good partner who has less inclination to jump into the offense, although his timing tends to be good when he does. Additionally, having Byram separate from Makar means we could, if Byram develops well, have a 2 pairing punch on defense that would be tops in the NHL.
Exactly what's playing out..
When you were predicting they'd sign Toews, I only really thought they'd do that if Byram needed to be involved in the deal for a 2C.
Letting it play out with Ryjo having been acquired is really the best answer. Ideally Byram takes a step, Landy comes back sometime in the playoffs, we win, and Toews goes big contract hunting. Then Ryjo plays his ass off for a contract year, we win again, and then he goes big contract hunting.
What I don't get is keeping Girard, basically at all.. I mean I guess I can see the need for him moving to #4RD if Manson is actually cooked, but other than that I'd rather have the assets, a better 3rd line, and the room to add Kane or someone like that if it's needed.
The Kingslayer
Registered User
Hes going to the highest bidder. Its likely going to be his only chance to cash in on a long term guaranteed deal.
Jazzguitar
Registered User
Feels weird to switch roles on this as I’m usually all about the eye test and you’re all about the fancy stats but….
Fancy stats say Cale and Bo was our best pairing last season besides Toews and Hunt
.
niwotsblessing
Registered User
Sample size? How much time did they spend on the ice together relative to other combos?Feels weird to switch roles on this as I’m usually all about the eye test and you’re all about the fancy stats but….
Fancy stats say Cale and Bo was our best pairing last season besides Toews and Hunt
NorthernAvsFan
Registered User
- Jun 25, 2014
- 1,837
- 4,354
If Byram is getting 8X$9M on his next deal, it’s great news for Colorado.
Because it means two things… 1. He’s provided tremendous value on this current deal and 2. He’s become one of the best defenceman in the league.
I dont think either one of those are necessarily true.
I wouldn't call Sergachev, Chabot, or Werenski three of the best Dmen in the league.
According to what statistics exactly?Feels weird to switch roles on this as I’m usually all about the eye test and you’re all about the fancy stats but….
Fancy stats say Cale and Bo was our best pairing last season besides Toews and Hunt
Byram - Makar were below 50% expected goals last year, and had some of the highest expected goals against per 60 of all Avs pairings last year.
Although, if you really look at it, you can see the problem here was Byram. Not one single pairing that he was on had a positive expected goals rate. He was dragging down every partner he played with.
I'm not the biggest advanced stats person in the world. With context they can tell you things, and as models get more refined, they are getting better. They are not the end all be all. Saying that, the advanced stats don't paint a pretty picture of Byram. Advanced stats wise, the only defensemen that were worse than Byram were Manson and Dermy. EJ, JMFJ, Hunt, G, etc were all better. Even guys like MacDonald and Englund had better advanced stats. Going through the lineup, when paired with Byram only two defensmen were better with him than without him... EJ and Manson.
Now as I said, I don't think advanced stats tell the whole story and out of context they cause some issues in evaluations. But there are not many advanced stats that show Byram in a positive light. I wouldn't be using them to prop him up.
Now as I said, I don't think advanced stats tell the whole story and out of context they cause some issues in evaluations. But there are not many advanced stats that show Byram in a positive light. I wouldn't be using them to prop him up.
- Apr 25, 2006
- 54,189
- 61,032
Monthly reminder that Bowen Byram has played a total of 91 regular season games in the NHL, which is basically nothing for a defenseman.
niwotsblessing
Registered User
So a full regular season leading to a second round exit from the playoffs. Trade Byram!
Ehhh... there are two sides to this coin.
On the bad, there's a large reason he's only played 91 games and it simply isn't a positive reason. Those projecting him to be ultra elite are simply projecting based off hype. The numbers in his 91 games don't signal sure thing star defensemen.. they actually signal a flawed 3/4 more than a #1.
On the positive, he should be better in his next 2-400 games than he was in his first 91. That doesn't always happen with defensemen, but it is the normal. If he can stay healthy and take a step, he can move more into that conversation of being a legit top pairing guy you can count on. His skill set should equate to him being a good top pairing guy.
This has been the whole crux with Byram and the reason the Avs pretty much have to rely on Toews. Toews, today, is a sure thing top pairing guy. Zero doubt about it. You can make an argument he's a legit #1 (and I'd agree). Byram hasn't proven a bit he can replace Toews. So to keep the team at as high of level as possible, the Avs have to keep Toews until Byram does. At this point, the risk is getting pretty high to move on from Toews and the safe move is to lock up Toews. I'd say the odds are the Avs will go the safe move here. Then deal with the aftermath.
- Apr 25, 2006
- 54,189
- 61,032
I'd say there is still a very major reason... security and knowing if you can use a defensemen to shore up the team during the season in a hockey trade. If you don't re-sign Toews until after the season... you really can't use a valuable defensemen to solve roster issue on the team this season.
- Apr 25, 2006
- 54,189
- 61,032
I don't see them trading a dman during the season. Waiting is better because:
1- Team will have a better idea if Byram can play first pairing going forward.
2- Toews went from 0.82 PPG in 2021-22 to 0.62 PPG in 2022-23 (while the scoring went up in the NHL). If we re-up him now chances are we're paying the 0.82 PPG guy.
Another regression like this though and he should be significantly cheaper if we decide to keep him.
On the opposite side, if Byram proves he can’t handle top pairing (or gets injured again) and Toews goes back to .8ppg… then Toews has a ton of leverage. There is a decent amount of risk on both sides here.
Keeping the options open to trade is key to me though. Injuries happen and roster holes come up. If the Avs limit their ability to add, they could end up having another wasted year.
- Status
