Rumor: 2023-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Season Thread

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I have a small quibble with this. This is not how it works with star player contracts. With mid-tier players, you can use term to bring down the AAV. Players want more security, club might be willing to accommodate them by lowering the AAV.

Disagree wholeheartedly. If MacK's agent had proposed $12.6M AAV for 6 years or 7 years. Avs would have snapped his hand off to take the deal. The extra 1-2 years on the end at inflated value are only to the player's benefit and serve to bring overall AAV down.
 
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Pretty sure they did bud, pretty sure they did. Matthews will be just a year younger than MacKinnon when starting his new deal. Toronto still wanted max term. I can guarantee you, the Avs didn't even offer 5 or 6 years to MacKinnon, even though that might be the most effective way of using money relative to on ice performance. But it's not just about that is it. There's value to having these players on your team, that isn't measured just by points. Ask the owners.

The owners have been the biggest proponents of limiting term in every CBA negotiation. In 2012 they tried to limit contracts to 5 years. Odds are high they will take another run at it in the next negotiations.
 
The owners have been the biggest proponents of limiting term in every CBA negotiation. In 2012 they tried to limit contracts to 5 years. Odds are high they will take another run at it in the next negotiations.
Because owners don't want to be tied up to Oliver Ekman-Larsons. They wouldn't mind being tied up for McDavid though. With star players, especially in their prime, it's not something to be really worked up about.
 
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Because owners don't want to be tied up to Oliver Ekman-Larsons. They wouldn't mind being tied up for McDavid though. With star players, especially in their prime, it's not something to be really worked up about.
Owners don't like the term in general. They'll deal with it for the star players... that shouldn't be confused for a desire.
 
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Owners don't like the term in general. They'll deal with it for the star players... that shouldn't be confused for a desire.
I think they like the term for star players, but they are small % of the league. Less term would benefit the owners in the big picture.

Less term would probably be better for fan experience as well, considering how much less player movement there is in the NHL compared to the rest of the NA pro leagues. Term is one part in that equation.
 
The owners have been the biggest proponents of limiting term in every CBA negotiation. In 2012 they tried to limit contracts to 5 years. Odds are high they will take another run at it in the next negotiations.
Best case scenario for the teams and for the league would be 5 year max term and teams retain the rights to a player until age 30.

It will never happen in a million years though.
 
Any kind of decline MacKinnon suffers in his early 30’s will be counteracted by the cap going up.

With the Matthews contract. He already gets the big pay day and then his next contract will be even more because of the rising cap.
 
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Best case scenario for the teams and for the league would be 5 year max term and teams retain the rights to a player until age 30.

It will never happen in a million years though.
The players would never agree to 30. Since they got UFA rights to 27 from 31, zero chance they go backwards. The initial offer was for 5 year term and UFA at 25 or 5 years of service... that's how much owners really hate term. They are willing to let prime age players be UFAs over having term.
 
Any kind of decline MacKinnon suffers in his early 30’s will be counteracted by the cap going up.

With the Matthews contract. He already gets the big pay day and then his next contract will be even more because of the rising cap.
Sure, but from TO’s POV they keep Matthews throughout his peak/prime years and get to shed his worst contract after their window is over. Or at least that should be what happens.
 
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I have a small quibble with this. This is not how it works with star player contracts.
Uhhhh, yes it is? That's literally exactly how it works.


If the Avs had only signed Mack for ~5 years last summer, he would have gotten well over $13M. Probably in the neighborhood of $14M. The 8 year deal brought the AAV down, 100% fact.
 
Any kind of decline MacKinnon suffers in his early 30’s will be counteracted by the cap going up.

With the Matthews contract. He already gets the big pay day and then his next contract will be even more because of the rising cap.

Potentially going up. We have the next CBA coming up in a couple years, the RSO mess that is very likely to decrease HRR, and then the new TV deals. There is already blood in the water on TV negotiations not going well with sports networks (look at the Pac 12). The market very would could fix itself in the next few years... or ESPN could be in real trouble as with most linear TV sports programming.
 
I will say that I think if Toronto is smart and they arent the ones who give Matthews his next contract then this is kind of decent for them.


But it still isn't great because this is still clearly all about maximizing the money he can earn from Matthews' perspective which means winning isn't really something he cares about nearly as much. And by all means good for him, maximize the bag all day.

But it's gonna send the same message to Marner next year, Nylander right now, etc. etc. And thus is a big reason why the Leafs don't win with this core.



Now, if the Leafs also end up bring the team that gives Matthews his next max term deal(Whether that's 5 or 8 years or somewhere in between) in 2028 for $18-20M... Then this is all going to be worst possible outcome for the Leafs.


They need to be smart and simply move on after this contract is up.
 
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The players would never agree to 30. Since they got UFA rights to 27 from 31, zero chance they go backwards. The initial offer was for 5 year term and UFA at 25 or 5 years of service... that's how much owners really hate term. They are willing to let prime age players be UFAs over having term.
PLEASE let this happpen. UFA would be madness with a bunch of 25 year olds hitting the market.
 
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I will say that I think if Toronto is smart and they arent the ones who give Matthews his next contract then this is kind of decent for them.


But it still isn't great because this is still clearly all about maximizing the money he can earn from Matthews' perspective which means winning isn't really something he cares about nearly as much. And by all means good for him, maximize the bag all day.

But it's gonna send the same message to Marner next year, Nylander right now, etc. etc. And thus is a big reason why the Leafs don't win with this core.



Now, if the Leafs also end up bring the team that gives Matthews his next max term deal(Whether that's 5 or 8 years or somewhere in between) in 2028 for $18-20M... Then this is all going to be worst possible outcome for the Leafs.


They need to be smart and simply move on after this contract is up.
Ultimately... I think Toronto sticking with Matthews and signing a deal at the end of this one vs letting him go comes down to if they win a Cup or not with him over the next 5 seasons. If they win a Cup with him, they'll pay him anything to have him retire a Leaf. If they don't win a Cup with him, they'll be rebuilding by the end of this contract anyway.

PLEASE let this happpen. UFA would be madness with a bunch of 25 year olds hitting the market.
Owners love this trick, GMs hate it. Click here to see what it is!
 
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I still think this is more of a gamble for Matthews than anyone else. One bad injury and he leaves a bunch of money on the table.

Yeah he's taking on a lot of risk. It is easier to do though when you've locked in a $120m in earnings alone beyond sponsorships.
 
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This post on the main boards is interesting. Nobody above 13.3% of cap since Malking in 2016. The Crosby 15% year had Malkin on an ELC. Zero teams since the term limit was implemented have won beyond 12.12% without a 9+ year contract still on the books (Crosby and Ovi had their absurd terms when they won their Cups after). MacK's contract will be at the 12.12% when the cup reaches 103.96m (13.31% of Malkin is at 94.67m).

Here are all the Stanley Cup winners since the cap was introduced, and their highest paid player (as a % of the cap) in the year they won:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Salary cap[/TD]
[TD]Champion[/TD]
[TD]Highest paid player[/TD]
[TD]Cap hit[/TD]
[TD]%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2006[/TD]
[TD]$39,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Carolina[/TD]
[TD]Rod Brind'Amour[/TD]
[TD]$3,800,000[/TD]
[TD]9.74%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2007[/TD]
[TD]$44,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Anaheim[/TD]
[TD]Scott Niedermayer[/TD]
[TD]$6,750,000[/TD]
[TD]15.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2008[/TD]
[TD]$50,300,000[/TD]
[TD]Detroit[/TD]
[TD]Nicklas Lidstrom[/TD]
[TD]$7,600,000[/TD]
[TD]15.11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]$56,700,000[/TD]
[TD]Pittsburgh[/TD]
[TD]Sidney Crosby[/TD]
[TD]$8,700,000[/TD]
[TD]15.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2010[/TD]
[TD]$56,800,000[/TD]
[TD]Chicago[/TD]
[TD]Brian Campbell[/TD]
[TD]$7,142,875[/TD]
[TD]12.58%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]$59,400,000[/TD]
[TD]Boston[/TD]
[TD]Zdeno Chara[/TD]
[TD]$7,500,000[/TD]
[TD]12.63%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2012[/TD]
[TD]$64,300,000[/TD]
[TD]Los Angeles[/TD]
[TD]Drew Doughty[/TD]
[TD]$7,000,000[/TD]
[TD]10.89%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2013[/TD]
[TD]$60,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Chicago[/TD]
[TD]Patrick Kane[/TD]
[TD]$6,300,000[/TD]
[TD]10.50%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2014[/TD]
[TD]$64,300,000[/TD]
[TD]Los Angeles[/TD]
[TD]Drew Doughty[/TD]
[TD]$7,000,000[/TD]
[TD]10.89%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2015[/TD]
[TD]$69,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Chicago[/TD]
[TD]Patrick Kane[/TD]
[TD]$6,300,000[/TD]
[TD]9.13%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2016[/TD]
[TD]$71,400,000[/TD]
[TD]Pittsburgh[/TD]
[TD]Evgeni Malkin[/TD]
[TD]$9,500,000[/TD]
[TD]13.31%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2017[/TD]
[TD]$73,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Pittsburgh[/TD]
[TD]Evgeni Malkin[/TD]
[TD]$9,500,000[/TD]
[TD]13.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2018[/TD]
[TD]$75,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Washington[/TD]
[TD]Alex Ovechkin[/TD]
[TD]$9,538,462[/TD]
[TD]12.72%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2019[/TD]
[TD]$79,500,000[/TD]
[TD]St.Louis[/TD]
[TD]Vladimir Tarasenko[/TD]
[TD]$7,500,000[/TD]
[TD]9.43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020[/TD]
[TD]$81,500,000[/TD]
[TD]Tampa Bay[/TD]
[TD]Nikita Kucherov[/TD]
[TD]$9,500,000[/TD]
[TD]11.66%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2021[/TD]
[TD]$81,500,000[/TD]
[TD]Tampa Bay[/TD]
[TD]Andrei Vasilveskyi[/TD]
[TD]$9,500,000[/TD]
[TD]11.66%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2022[/TD]
[TD]$81,500,000[/TD]
[TD]Colorado[/TD]
[TD]Miko Rantanen[/TD]
[TD]$9,250,000[/TD]
[TD]11.35%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2023[/TD]
[TD]$82,500,000[/TD]
[TD]Vegas[/TD]
[TD]Jack Eichel[/TD]
[TD]$10,000,000[/TD]
[TD]12.12%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

A team with a player making 15% or more of the cap hasn't won the cup since Sidney Crosby did it in 2009. And even that year, it was offset by Malkin still being on his ELC.

Auston Matthews will have a cap hit above 15% of the cap for at least the next 2 seasons. And the Leafs won't have any star players supporting him on significant bargain contracts.

The question isn't "Is Matthews overpaid at $13.25M?" Because, no, he isn't. The question is "Can you win with Matthews making $13.25M?". And the answer is, at least in the next couple of seasons - probably not.

Based on historical numbers, you want your highest cap hit to be 11-13% of the cap. That won't happen for the Leafs until, most likely, 2028.
 
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I still think this is more of a gamble for Matthews than anyone else. One bad injury and he leaves a bunch of money on the table.

He's definitely taking on some risk. But he's also secured $114M pretty much regardless of what else happens.


The way his contract is structured, he is buyout proof on this deal. So even if something happened tomorrow and he couldn't play another game again, leaving the game with $115M is pretty damn solid. Enough to where you can comfortably assume some risk.


If he doesn't have any issues and is still a Top 5 center in the game in 5 years time, he's going to end up making over $200M and flirting with $250M potentially.
 
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He's definitely taking on some risk. But he's also secured $114M pretty much regardless of what else happens.


The way his contract is structured, he is buyout proof on this deal. So even if something happened tomorrow and he couldn't play another game again, leaving the game with $115M is pretty damn solid. Enough to where you can comfortably assume some risk.


If he doesn't have any issues and is still a Top 5 center in the game in 5 years time, he's going to end up making over $200M and flirting with $250M potentially.
It has to be an ego thing. He really has set his sights on breaking that record of who's going to make the most money during his career. And like you said, if he has a career ending injury, "Oh well. I still made over 110 million dollars".

This discussion is brought up every now and then of why more players are not like this, betting on themselves. And then you see what happens with Landeskog. And in the end, if you are making like over 100 million dollars over your career, does it that extra 10 million really make a huge difference? Get some of that money on signing bonuses, and get someone to invest it for you. You're making up the difference there if you are smart. Then again, not every athlete is smart with money...
 
The players would never agree to 30. Since they got UFA rights to 27 from 31, zero chance they go backwards. The initial offer was for 5 year term and UFA at 25 or 5 years of service... that's how much owners really hate term. They are willing to let prime age players be UFAs over having term.
I can see it. Small market owners would do it because they fear term and big market owners would do it because they'd easily attract the stars that left the small markets at age 25.

Everyone wins except fans of small and unattractive markets. Thet get hosed. Also sucks for those people that think that drafting is important.
 
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Best case scenario for the teams and for the league would be 5 year max term and teams retain the rights to a player until age 30.

It will never happen in a million years though.

Nor should it. Players get screwed over enough as it is with restrictions and the league has already taken a lot of the fun out of it. If anything, go in the other direction and allow FA at an earlier age and get more player movement started.
 
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