Rumor: 2023-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Season Thread

[Pierce Hawthorne]

In a salary cap world you can’t afford two #1 centers unless you get rid of bunch of depth from your team.

The only team that has two number one centers are the Oilers, and that’s why they can’t get their D and goaltending fixed

That just isn't true at all...

Active right now you've got: New Jersey has two #1Cs in Hughes/Hischier, Tampa has 2 #1Cs in Stamkos/Point and won the cup with that , Toronto had 2 #1Cs in Matthews/Tavares(Debatable as to whether Tavares is still a #1C but he absolutely was until probably this year).

In the past you had Pittsburgh win b2b cups with 2 #1Cs, San Jose had multiple different stretches with 2 #1Cs while they were a top contender.

You can quite easily afford to have two #1Cs. Center is far and away the most important position in hockey, its the position you should be spending the most money on per player.


Perhaps you are confusing #1Cs with elite #1Cs... But even then you'd be wrong.

 

[Valushkin]

That just isn't true at all...

Active right now you've got: New Jersey has two #1Cs in Hughes/Hischier, Tampa has 2 #1Cs in Stamkos/Point and won the cup with that , Toronto had 2 #1Cs in Matthews/Tavares(Debatable as to whether Tavares is still a #1C but he absolutely was until probably this year).

In the past you had Pittsburgh win b2b cups with 2 #1Cs, San Jose had multiple different stretches with 2 #1Cs while they were a top contender.

You can quite easily afford to have two #1Cs. Center is far and away the most important position in hockey, its the position you should be spending the most money on per player.


Perhaps you are confusing #1Cs with elite #1Cs... But even then you'd be wrong.

Yeah I guess I was wrong about Oilers being the only team with two 1Cs, but those other teams you mentioned like Pens, Tampa, or Devils, they have guys like Crosby, Point, Hughes making less than 10 mill which allows them to have another top line center. Avs can’t afford that because MacK is making 12 plus unless EP comes in and agrees to sign for less than 10

 

[ABasin]

That just isn't true at all...

Active right now you've got: New Jersey has two #1Cs in Hughes/Hischier, Tampa has 2 #1Cs in Stamkos/Point and won the cup with that , Toronto had 2 #1Cs in Matthews/Tavares(Debatable as to whether Tavares is still a #1C but he absolutely was until probably this year).

In the past you had Pittsburgh win b2b cups with 2 #1Cs, San Jose had multiple different stretches with 2 #1Cs while they were a top contender.

You can quite easily afford to have two #1Cs. Center is far and away the most important position in hockey, its the position you should be spending the most money on per player.


Perhaps you are confusing #1Cs with elite #1Cs... But even then you'd be wrong.

In the end, there really isn't any team that can be strong 100% everywhere on the ice. Maybe a team can do that for a season here and there (probably mostly driven by cap dynamics), but in general, really good teams have to choose a weakness. Pick your poison, that sort of thing.

After the Cup, the Avs chose center. 2C in particular. I would have preferred wing as the weakness point, but that's not what they did. It didn't play out so well in the first post-cup season, let's see how we do this time around.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Yeah I guess I was wrong about Oilers being the only team with two 1Cs, but those other teams you mentioned like Pens, Tampa, or Devils, they have guys like Crosby, Point, Hughes making less than 10 mill which allows them to have another top line center. Avs can’t afford that because MacK is making 12 plus unless EP comes in and agrees to sign for less than 10

The actual cap hit doesn't matter so much as it does the % of the cap, with the flat cap likely lifting this summer and some pretty significant increases coming($87.5M next year, $92M the year after that being the current projections) Mack being at $12.6M is already going to start looking like a pretty good deal.


When Pittsburgh won b2b cups with Malkin and Crosby back in 2016, the salary cap was $71.4M. Crosby's cap hit was $8.7M or 12.2% and Malkin's cap hit was $9.5M or 13.3%.

At an $87.5M cap hit next year that would translate to $11.65M and $10.65M cap hits today.

So really, if Mack was at $12.6M and Pettersson $10.5M, they'd be in a very similar spot to where the Pens were back in 2016... By the time the cap jumps to $92M in 2025 our guys would actually be under the relative value of Malkin/Sid.


Point is it can be done and made to work... But it would be especially tough for the Avs to make it work having both Makar and Toews making $9M and say $7.5M on Defense. That Penguins team in 2016 had Letang making $7.25M(Which again would line up pretty close to Makars $9M today) but then the next highest cap hitting Dman was Ian Cole at just $2.1M.


Where the Avs are much better built then that Pens team IMO is in net, where we only have $5.4M combined spent on our 2 goalies while the Penguins had $5.75M spent just on Fleury alone that year.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

In the end, there really isn't any team that can be strong 100% everywhere on the ice. Maybe a team can do that for a season here and there (probably mostly driven by cap dynamics), but in general, really good teams have to choose a weakness. Pick your poison, that sort of thing.

After the Cup, the Avs chose center. 2C in particular. I would have preferred wing as the weakness point, but that's not what they did. It didn't play out so well in the first post-cup season, let's see how we do this time around.

I dunno if I would say that honestly. I think every year you can probably point to at least 1-2 teams that really dont have a weakness... This year its New Jersey for sure IMO. Maybe Vegas as well again and quite frankly I would even say maybe us if RyJo bounces back in a big way. But I do agree that typically a team can only hold onto that situation for a ~2 years or so at most.

I'd say us and Tampa were both in that window from 2019-2022. Now we are both dealing with different weaknesses due to the cap, for Tampa its Depth/Aging of the core. For us its Center depth/injuries and soon to be age but again I think we have a lot of potential this year.

But this also kind of just speaks to what a select few of us have been preaching for a while now regarding short cup windows.

I've said this many times before but the Avs right now are tied for the 3rd longest active playoff streak in the NHL at 6 straight years(Tied with Tampa). Only Boston and Toronto are ahead of us at 7 years each and Toronto's is a bit of a gimmick because they lost in the "play in" series back in the 2020 bubble.


I also think right now its especially difficult to build a team without weakness due to the flat cap. Once that goes away and teams have more room to work with I think you'll start to see a few teams every year that are clearly way ahead of the rest.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

To keep the AAV low, I guess we're planning for the salary cap to increase and give him some Duncan Keith/Brett Seabrook LTIR years past 35 years old.

This guy could be our Duncan Keith imo

A bit higher salary though, Keith was such a bargain.

 

[Valushkin]

The actual cap hit doesn't matter so much as it does the % of the cap, with the flat cap likely lifting this summer and some pretty significant increases coming($87.5M next year, $92M the year after that being the current projections) Mack being at $12.6M is already going to start looking like a pretty good deal.


When Pittsburgh won b2b cups with Malkin and Crosby back in 2016, the salary cap was $71.4M. Crosby's cap hit was $8.7M or 12.2% and Malkin's cap hit was $9.5M or 13.3%.

At an $87.5M cap hit next year that would translate to $11.65M and $10.65M cap hits today.

So really, if Mack was at $12.6M and Pettersson $10.5M, they'd be in a very similar spot to where the Pens were back in 2016... By the time the cap jumps to $92M in 2025 our guys would actually be under the relative value of Malkin/Sid.


Point is it can be done and made to work... But it would be especially tough for the Avs to make it work having both Makar and Toews making $9M and say $7.5M on Defense. That Penguins team in 2016 had Letang making $7.25M(Which again would line up pretty close to Makars $9M today) but then the next highest cap hitting Dman was Ian Cole at just $2.1M.


Where the Avs are much better built then that Pens team IMO is in net, where we only have $5.4M combined spent on our 2 goalies while the Penguins had $5.75M spent just on Fleury alone that year.

All good points, and the question you would ask is, would you rather have EP and MacK and no Toews, or Makar Toews and lesser 2C? I think Avs are better off with Makar and Toews and lesser 2C as long as that 2C is good for at least 50 to 60 points

 

[Richard88]

With Ottawa shopping Mathieu Joseph as a cap dump to make room for Pinto why not try to take advantage of that situation somehow?

For example:

To Colorado: Mathieu Joseph (@$2m aav X 3 / $950k retained by 3rd team).

To 3rd team (eg. Arizona): Picks/prospects from Ottawa + Francouz

To Ottawa: nothing


Ottawa would get $2.95m x3 in cap relief to sign Pinto. The 3rd team (eg. Arizona) would get good futures and Francouz for pure capspace (or Francouz could get moved in a separate deal). Avs then sign Halak at <$1m as backup.

Joseph could fit nicely on a crazy forechecking line with Wood and Colton, or as 4C between Cogliano and LOC. If $2m aav is too high perhaps pay a little extra to get an additional ~$500k retained to bring his caphit down to $1.475m X3.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

All good points, and the question you would ask is, would you rather have EP and MacK and no Toews, or Makar Toews and lesser 2C? I think Avs are better off with Makar and Toews and lesser 2C as long as that 2C is good for at least 50 to 60 points

I think they could make it work with all of Mackinnon/EP/Makar/Toews... They would just have to take from the wings which I would happily do.

I think they could even re-sign Rantanen and still make it work. But they would have to move at least one of Lehkonen or Nichushkin and possibly both of them.

 

[Valushkin]

I think they could make it work with all of Mackinnon/EP/Makar/Toews... They would just have to take from the wings which I would happily do.

I think they could even re-sign Rantanen and still make it work. But they would have to move at least one of Lehkonen or Nichushkin and possibly both of them.

I wouldn’t do it

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I wouldn’t do it

Why? Wingers aren't nearly as important as Centers.

 

[Valushkin]

Why? Wingers aren't nearly as important as Centers.

Lehky Nuke are two of the best defensive wingers in the NHL, you get rid of them and have cheaper less effective wingers play with MacK and EP, that makes the Avs worse IMO. And why do that when you can find someone like Kadri and win the cup?

 

[PAZ]

I dunno if I would say that honestly. I think every year you can probably point to at least 1-2 teams that really dont have a weakness... This year its New Jersey for sure IMO. Maybe Vegas as well again and quite frankly I would even say maybe us if RyJo bounces back in a big way. But I do agree that typically a team can only hold onto that situation for a ~2 years or so at most.

I'd say us and Tampa were both in that window from 2019-2022. Now we are both dealing with different weaknesses due to the cap, for Tampa its Depth/Aging of the core. For us its Center depth/injuries and soon to be age but again I think we have a lot of potential this year.

But this also kind of just speaks to what a select few of us have been preaching for a while now regarding short cup windows.

I've said this many times before but the Avs right now are tied for the 3rd longest active playoff streak in the NHL at 6 straight years(Tied with Tampa). Only Boston and Toronto are ahead of us at 7 years each and Toronto's is a bit of a gimmick because they lost in the "play in" series back in the 2020 bubble.


I also think right now it’s especially difficult to build a team without weakness due to the flat cap. Once that goes away and teams have more room to work with I think you'll start to see a few teams every year that are clearly way ahead of the rest.

New Jersey has a pretty glaring weakness is net, or at least a question mark. I personally wouldn’t be comfortable banking a cup contending run with their current duo.

Vanecek is inconsistent and wilts in the playoffs. Schmid looks promising, but he’s unproven.

They definitely have the assets and it wouldn’t be hard for them to find a goalie upgrade, but it’s still a weakness imo.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

New Jersey has a pretty glaring weakness is net, or at least a question mark. I personally wouldn’t be comfortable banking a cup contending run with their current duo.

Vanecek is inconsistent and wilts in the playoffs. Schmid looks promising, but he’s unproven.

They definitely have the assets and it wouldn’t be hard for them to find a goalie upgrade, but it’s still a weakness imo.

Disagree, but that's also because I just dont think goalies are important....


Well, important probably isn't the right word. Obviously you need good goaltending to win generally speaking(Avs cup run being an exception to the rule), but its pretty clear at this point that goaltending is extremely random particularly in the playoffs. We just watched Aiden Hill essentially come out of nowhere to backstop Vegas to a Cup. Bobrovsky was one of the worst contracts in the league and a legit buyout candidate for basically the last 2-3 years before he went god mode in the playoffs for Florida and nearly carried them to a cup.

I just dont think goaltending is one of those things that needs to be a strength. To me its one of the more luck based factors in the playoffs. Sure on paper Vanecek is suspect and Schmid is unproven, but the exact same things could have been said about Hill/Bob last year, Kuemper for us on our Cup run. Binnington during his win for the Blues, Murray during his win for the Penguins, etc. etc.


To me the ingredients for a team that is truly elite without any weakness would be a team that's elite down the middle(Particularly 1C and 2C), elite on Defense(Particularly the Top 4 guys), have really strong depth, and are relatively healthy. New Jersey checks all those boxes in my books as of right now... Vegas and Colorado are also close in my eyes.

 

[Foppa2118]

In a salary cap world you can’t afford two #1 centers unless you get rid of bunch of depth from your team.

The only team that has two number one centers are the Oilers, and that’s why they can’t get their D and goaltending fixed

The only real way to afford two legit #1 centers is if one is either on an ELC or has a bargain deal like Crosby, Draisaitl, Stamkos, Hughes, Hischier, and MacKinnon's last deal.

Not coincidentally those are the examples of the only teams with two 1C's. But these bargain deals don't last forever and the Avs are past that phase anyway with Nate, Mikko, and Makar all making $9M+ and Landy at $7M. So two 1C's for them is probably a pipe dream.

You have to sacrifice somewhere, and if you insist on having a high end 2C, then you're gonna lose depth either on defense or on the wing, and you probably can't have an elite winger unless it's a bargain deal. Which means you can't load up a top line as easily, and you probably don't have a play driving winger that can help your 2C.

The Avs approach this the best way IMO. You save money at 2C by always looking for bargain buy low deals, you pay less than other teams for your 1G at around $3-5M, and you don't sacrifice on defense.

This allows you to have both high end forwards and defenseman, without sacrificing too much depth. Then you just fill in the rest as you go and hope you don't get too unlucky with injuries.

One of the worst things the Avs could do, both short and long term, would be to trade Byram for forward help. He's too good as it is, let alone his ceiling. Their forward depth is fine, they just need to avoid getting extremely unlucky with injuries and they can win. If they have another injury riddled season like last year, it won't matter who the forwards are.

The key to the Avs success post Nate's contract has always been their D core. Cale and Bo are younger than the forwards, so this helps them extend their contention window. They also help both defensively and offensively, which helps make up for any lack of depth production as a result of their higher priced forwards. They can't lose that.

 

[PAZ]

Disagree, but that's also because I just dont think goalies are important....


Well, important probably isn't the right word. Obviously you need good goaltending to win generally speaking(Avs cup run being an exception to the rule), but its pretty clear at this point that goaltending is extremely random particularly in the playoffs. We just watched Aiden Hill essentially come out of nowhere to backstop Vegas to a Cup. Bobrovsky was one of the worst contracts in the league and a legit buyout candidate for basically the last 2-3 years before he went god mode in the playoffs for Florida and nearly carried them to a cup.

I just dont think goaltending is one of those things that needs to be a strength. To me its one of the more luck based factors in the playoffs. Sure on paper Vanecek is suspect and Schmid is unproven, but the exact same things could have been said about Hill/Bob last year, Kuemper for us on our Cup run. Binnington during his win for the Blues, Murray during his win for the Penguins, etc. etc.


To me the ingredients for a team that is truly elite without any weakness would be a team that's elite down the middle(Particularly 1C and 2C), elite on Defense(Particularly the Top 4 guys), have really strong depth, and are relatively healthy. New Jersey checks all those boxes in my books as of right now... Vegas and Colorado are also close in my eyes.

I think you still need to have a decent tandem or you're just relying on luck. Winning the cup requires plenty of luck, and without at least average goaltending it's just another piece you need to hope goes right. I think you're downplaying how bad Vanecek has been in the playoffs - he has a career .834 SV% over 10 games and 3 seasons.

People rag on Tatar's playoff performance, but at least he's a winger. If your goalie wilts in the playoffs you just ruined your chance at a cup. Schmid could become this years Binnington, or he could also be just a flash in the pan. I don't think you need to have an elite goaltender, you just need to have it good enough so it doesn't decrease your odds.

They don't need to get Hellebuyck and goalies are voodoo, but they need to have some sort of glimpse of talent imo. My tune will change if Schmid has a .920+ SV% throughout the year - but a lot of the goalies you mentioned were in Vezina form outside of Hill. Bobrovsky has won multiple Vezinas. Binnington had a year long hot streak. Murray was one of the top goalie prospects when he stepped in.

My point is that it's an easy hole to fill - but it's still a weakness as of today.

 

[Balthazar]

Drouin's agent is posting offseason game highlights now... @henchman21

 

[Valushkin]

Disagree, but that's also because I just dont think goalies are important....


Well, important probably isn't the right word. Obviously you need good goaltending to win generally speaking(Avs cup run being an exception to the rule), but its pretty clear at this point that goaltending is extremely random particularly in the playoffs. We just watched Aiden Hill essentially come out of nowhere to backstop Vegas to a Cup. Bobrovsky was one of the worst contracts in the league and a legit buyout candidate for basically the last 2-3 years before he went god mode in the playoffs for Florida and nearly carried them to a cup.

I just dont think goaltending is one of those things that needs to be a strength. To me its one of the more luck based factors in the playoffs. Sure on paper Vanecek is suspect and Schmid is unproven, but the exact same things could have been said about Hill/Bob last year, Kuemper for us on our Cup run. Binnington during his win for the Blues, Murray during his win for the Penguins, etc. etc.


To me the ingredients for a team that is truly elite without any weakness would be a team that's elite down the middle(Particularly 1C and 2C), elite on Defense(Particularly the Top 4 guys), have really strong depth, and are relatively healthy. New Jersey checks all those boxes in my books as of right now... Vegas and Colorado are also close in my eyes.

Goaltending doesn’t have to be elite for teams like Avs and Vegas who have deep d core and play a very good team defense which help the goalie a lot. I don’t think the Devils have all that. They have very good forward group, I wouldn’t say their defense is deep and elite, and I don’t think they play a same team defense like Avs and Vegas, so they probably do need a better goalie to go deep in the playoffs

 

[AllAboutAvs]

If I was a betting man my bet would be on the Devils to get out of the East.

 

[Ceremony]

Can we all please collectively agree to not post Allan Walsh tweets this year? Thanks.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Can we all please collectively agree to not post Allan Walsh tweets this year? Thanks.

They’re so pathetic, they might be amusing to some.

 

[redacted]

Drouin's agent is posting offseason game highlights now... @henchman21

He's going to be insufferable no matter which way this goes.

 

[The Abusement Park]

He's going to be insufferable.

FTFY

 

[redacted]

FTFY

You could have fixed it further to"

He's insufferable.

 

[The Abusement Park]

You could have fixed it further to"

He's insufferable.

Touche.