Arizona starts their preseason playing 3 games on the same day (the Sat at 12:05am is technically a Friday game, as the game is being played in Australia). They need all the players they can get.
Rumor: 2023-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Season Thread
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Arizona starts their preseason playing 3 games on the same day (the Sat at 12:05am is technically a Friday game, as the game is being played in Australia). They need all the players they can get.
NateTheGreat
Registered User
I agree that average age is a misleading stat. With the Avs you have guys like JJ, Cogs, Tatar, Manson bringing the average age up when none of them play a significant role on this team. Our oldest core guys are Landeskog and Toews who are 29 and 30. Hardly an old team.
Manson is expected to be the #2RD, that's a pretty important position. Johansen is expected to be the 2C, another extremely important position.
There's a good chance Tatar is a Top 6 winger as well. The only ones that aren't playing big roles quite frankly are JJ and Cogliano.
NateTheGreat
Registered User
Manson and JJ will be 5th and 6th in ice time amongst our Dmen, I’m pretty confident in saying that.
As long as Drouin is in the top 6, Tatar will be 8th or 9th in ice time amongst our forwards.
JJ and Cogs, the two guys who impact our average age the most, are playing the least important positions on the team in 6th D and 4th line wing.
RyJo just turned 31. Age regression is a non issue for this team this season. The much more concerning thing is our ability to stay healthy.
henchman21
Mr. Meeseeks
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Each team has guys that pull up or down the stats. LA has Lewis pulling up theirs too and he matters less than all of those guys.
Also... this idea that 29/30 isn't old is misguided. 27/28 is where things normally start falling off for most players (I'd argue a year or two earlier). By 29/30 they are well on their way down. By 32/33/34 many guys are not capable of sticking in the league. This is very well established.
A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)
How do NHL players age? When do they peak? How quickly do they decline? Questions about player aging in the NHL have been debated for years, and an incredible amount of research has already been do…
hockey-graphs.com
Just isn't an accurate statement at all. At 29/30 the age regression is already happening for most players, quite aggressively for some. And we have a lot of player approaching that age group.
I dont know how you can possibly look at 3 of the last 4 years from RyJo and not think regression is a very real concern with him.
Each team has guys that pull up or down the stats. LA has Lewis pulling up theirs too and he matters less than all of those guys.
Also... this idea that 29/30 isn't old is misguided. 27/28 is where things normally start falling off for most players (I'd argue a year or two earlier). By 29/30 they are well on their way down. By 32/33/34 many guys are not capable of sticking in the league. This is very well established.
A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)
How do NHL players age? When do they peak? How quickly do they decline? Questions about player aging in the NHL have been debated for years, and an incredible amount of research has already been do…
Exactly. At 29/30 you are already well into the regression years. Avs have a number of guys Turing 29/30 this year and a number of guys already beyond that.
henchman21
Mr. Meeseeks
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Really even 27/28 is into regression statistically where most say the peak is 26. Even for defensemen. There will always be outliers and better players tends to simply stay better... but it is simply a numbers game. If you look at the Avs forwards, the only forward that won't be 27+ this year is Meyers and he's gonna be 25 soon. On defense, the picture is better for sure but still not perfect 3/6 of the every day guys are 29+, 2 are 25 and one is 22. 25 is right in that typical area of a peak, but could be half step better. 22 isn't as concrete for a peak, but odds are high Byram will get a step better over the next 2-3 seasons. Entering that 90-95% peak zone though.
Overall... of the 18 skaters, 78% of them are in the range where step backs should be expected. Even if you get half that don't, that still leaves 9 guys who were not as good. This just compounds over time. Maybe the Avs avoid it another year or two... but odds of 3/4/5 get small quickly.
Goalies are weird in all of this, though the data also suggests they are best 23-29... they are just all over the map though. Harder to say with the noise in the data.
Also a few funny things in this. 34+ players get better (because the riff raff retire and best players stick bringing up averages). PP QBs stay elite with their PP production. Their 5v5 play suffers greatly in their late 20s/30s, but their overall scoring stays up mostly due to PP. Forwards who are elite on the PK, stay elite their entire career. PK defensemen fall off a cliff faster in all situations, but it is most exaggerated on the PK where after 28/29 they become liabilities. PP forwards who are big goal scorers in that area, stay elite, arguably get better in that area in their 30s. Passing types have a very hard time sustaining on the PP. Goal scoring defensemen, almost never lose that ability. Even 5v5.
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NateTheGreat
Registered User
29+ :
Landeskog
Toews
RyJo
Tatar
Cogs
Manson
JJ
Hunt
Dermy
Francouz
28 or less :
Mack
Mikko
Nuke
Lehky
Drouin
Wood
Colton
LOC
Meyers
Makar
Byram
Girard
Georgiev
One group seems a lot more vital to the teams success or failure than the other. Sure in a couple years things will look different. For this season, age regression is a non issue for the team, not individual players themselves.
Landeskog
Toews
RyJo
Tatar
Cogs
Manson
JJ
Hunt
Dermy
Francouz
28 or less :
Mack
Mikko
Nuke
Lehky
Drouin
Wood
Colton
LOC
Meyers
Makar
Byram
Girard
Georgiev
One group seems a lot more vital to the teams success or failure than the other. Sure in a couple years things will look different. For this season, age regression is a non issue for the team, not individual players themselves.
henchman21
Mr. Meeseeks
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That 28 or less group is mostly 27/28. The team has a high concentration of players at the typical age of regression. The team is heavily concentrated there without enough younger players still moving to their peak to compensate for any regression (Byram is the only guy on the team in that sort of age). That represents a large risk IMO.
Pulled from McCurdy's site since it isn't clear.
5v5 Offense
5v5 Defense
Total WAR (includes special teams play and year 2 data is skewed towards better players) credit on the graph.
NateTheGreat
Registered User
If players aren’t at their peak, they’re either ascending to it, or regressing from it. In both scenarios, you can make a case those players are at similar levels of play, but travelling in opposite directions. In both scenarios, you can make a case that a team isn’t good enough to win yet, or too old to win (in our case win again). Yet teams have won the cup in both scenarios when the majority of their teams players, including their stars, aren’t at their absolute peak.
In case it wasn’t clear, I’m not worried.
In case it wasn’t clear, I’m not worried.
Yeah the data is pretty overwhelmingly accurate as well. It's why I always get a kick out of the folks who argue against it... The database this information is based off of is huge.
Of course you can always find outliers in both directions. The other thing that's frustrating when talking about the regressing stats is people completely fail to recognize the level of scoring across the league.
A player who was a 70 point player 5 years ago when they were ~25 years old, who is still a 70 point player today at 30 years old... That is a player that has regressed. But people just look at the same 70 point production and suggest otherwise without realizing that 5 years ago, maybe 30 players in the league scored 70 points, compared to the 60 who hit that mark this year.
henchman21
Mr. Meeseeks
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Team's frequently win outside their peak. I'd argue the Avs did as the previous season's team was better on paper and analytically (though solid debate could be had there). That wasn't where this was going though. It has been stated the Avs are not old, and/or that they are not a risk of age regression... which just isn't true. It may not happen this year or next. Weird things happen. Statistically, odds are high we will see some regression this year from a decent amount of players.
People simply have a skewed view of age in hockey. Even the very best players of all time tend to fit this general curve. There are outliers for sure (we've had two big ones here in the past), but even the best player of all time fits this curve. 28 is old. 31 is ancient. 35 is a miracle they are still in the league.
A lot of stats people are turning to relative numbers by season in their modeling. I think most recognize variations that can happen year to year. I think more casual fans see the numbers today put up by older players and think it'll hold for everyone. And it may, if scoring stay or continues to go up. Or it may crash harder if we enter a new dead puck era (which I think is coming in the next 3-4 years).
Don't worry, this will be talked about until the Avs rebuild. How teams normally operate, you got 6 more years.
ANewHope
Nuggets|Avs|Broncos
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No doubt regression is a very real thing as players age and the Avs will be hitting the wall someday. Where I've disagreed is the lack of consistency when comparing it to other teams and acting like it's a fact. Is it cores? overall rosters? it's certainly changed now because in the past when discussions like this happened it was purely the core players that mattered. You can't just move the goals posts so teams like Dallas/L.A aren't "old" but the Avs are. Context is important. If Josh Manson's role is considered important than Koptiar is certainly a top guy for L.A. Last offseason we were supposed to worry about Mack/Rants .. yet Roope Hintz is considered part of the "young" core for Dallas.
Avs 1D turns 25 years old. Kings 1D turns 34. That's more important than Dermy turning 30 this season.
Avs 1D turns 25 years old. Kings 1D turns 34. That's more important than Dermy turning 30 this season.
henchman21
Mr. Meeseeks
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Cores certainly matter more than total. Without a single doubt. The data is actually more extreme on cores than totals. Vegas is the only team to win with more than 1 30+ year old core player since the lockout. In the expansion era, I think it is only 4 teams total (one of those was the Avs BTW) that have pulled it off with 2+ core guys over 30. I might be off by 1 or 2 here. But we are talking ~10% of all Cup winners in the expansion era have cores that are old. You can find many individual teams that have 4-5 guys over 30 that win the Cup. That really isn't all that uncommon.
The point is absolutely not that Dallas, Colorado, and/or LA are not old. That is twisting what is being stated here. They are ALL old teams. They are varied in how they are old, but all are old. Dallas is a mix of old and young. A few old guys, a few young guys, and a couple in the middle. Avs are a highly concentrated team at 27/28 with a couple core slightly above, a couple slightly below. Really keyed into that late 20s age. LA is a team that has a core that is mostly 25/28 with a couple outliers high... then a group of ~4 players 22 or younger that are expected to be a part of their core, but not there yet. They are all different in their makeups, but all of them , without a doubt, are old. If that young group in LA succeeds, LA would move to middle age team rather quickly. If they fail, they'll be aged out as soon as Fiala and PLD do.
The young teams in the league are the ones like New Jersey. The middle age teams are like Florida. Your olds are Colorado/Dallas/LA. Your nursing homes are Pitt and Washington.
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I sais it last time but if people want to make an honest average age of each team, the age needs to be weighted based on ice time.
Player A who is 30 years old who plays 20 minutes a game should be weighted double player B who is 20 years old and plays 10 minutes. This combo of players has a weighted age of 26.7.
Impossible to do before a season I know.
Player A who is 30 years old who plays 20 minutes a game should be weighted double player B who is 20 years old and plays 10 minutes. This combo of players has a weighted age of 26.7.
Impossible to do before a season I know.
Great post, and exactly mate. Also don't forget that competition for spots is also a very healthy place and space to be, because it lifts everyone's effort (even in training).
There's so much to look forward to. I'm betting everyone is absolutely pumped for the season to begin.
A big question though; who's jersey to buy
Nuke is high on my list, might even be obtainable since everyone hates him now.
Chiarelli
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so Kopitar, Doughty, and Danault are on their way down and may not be able to stick in the league any day now....Each team has guys that pull up or down the stats. LA has Lewis pulling up theirs too and he matters less than all of those guys.
Also... this idea that 29/30 isn't old is misguided. 27/28 is where things normally start falling off for most players (I'd argue a year or two earlier). By 29/30 they are well on their way down. By 32/33/34 many guys are not capable of sticking in the league. This is very well established.
A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)
How do NHL players age? When do they peak? How quickly do they decline? Questions about player aging in the NHL have been debated for years, and an incredible amount of research has already been do…
If Landeskog returns it may still be feasible to keep the team intact next summer simply by moving Manson.
The cap is projected to rise to $87.5m in 2024, so there's an additional $4m which basically covers Toews' raise. It might be on the low side but in the AGM below I used $7.5m X 8 years (the 8th year being what keeps the AAV down a bit), and that allows just enough capspace to fill out a 22 man roster by simply moving Manson off the roster (his NTC becomes a limited NTC so it is possible and may even actually be the plan by CMac).
The 4th liners, 5/6D, and backup G would all need to be $1m but that shouldn't be an issue if the Avs can continue to be an attractive destination for players (as we've already seen with ERod, Tatar, Drouin, Cogliano, Jack Johnson, and college free agents Meyers, Pavel, Malinski, etc).
Missed ya dude
I almost started doing these myself, but I'm way too lazy these days.
henchman21
Mr. Meeseeks
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Kopi and Doughty fit that elite category that hold on longer and tick up that later curve. They could fall of the cliff at any point though, could easily be this year (and outside of last season Doughty has been a shell of his former self... IE last season could be the blip that sometimes happens). Danault is likely on his last big deal and won't be a positive value very soon. Probably gets 3 more years after his deal to be a PK 4th line C (which if you read though my stuff you'd see that is a trait for forwards that doesn't die).
NorthernAvsFan
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Personally feel the only team that has a better roster on paper than Colorado is New Jersey.
The gap is close with several other teams, but I think Colorado’s overall talent level is really strong this year.
A lot of room for optimism. Expectations should be high.
The gap is close with several other teams, but I think Colorado’s overall talent level is really strong this year.
A lot of room for optimism. Expectations should be high.
ANewHope
Nuggets|Avs|Broncos
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I think that's the thing for me. I remember discussing this about the Penguins cups with you and you completely ignored all the older players who played a role(Guerin, Gonchar, Kunitz, Cullen, Fedotenko, Daley etc) because they weren't "core players" but now when it comes to L.A vs Colorado the young players not playing core roles/not being paid like core players all of a sudden matter just as much?
I still remember the entire age thing starting with L.A awhile ago because someone said they were up and coming and it was someone who had been saying the Avs were old. The Dallas thing started because apparently the Avs have to worry about age regression but Dallas was penciled in as a top team with no concern. IMO Dallas/L.A have more upside with youth than Colorado does but more risk with top end players who are much older. Colorado is right in the middle with very little youth but no key pieces outside of Landy who are very old.
Doughty is the 1D at 34. Koptiar is 36, Danualt 30, Fiala 27, Kempe 27. I just don't think 25-28 makes sense as there core until Byfield/Kaliyev/Clarke become more important. Even PLD was drafted 1 year after Rants. L.A has some older key players, important pieces in the Avs range, and than they have some promising young players that can change the conversation.
Ceremony
How I choose to feel is how I am
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