Rumor: 2023-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Season Thread

[Gruyeriev]

What’s the cap space at with Franky done for the year?

They just spent a bit of it on Joel Kiviranta.

Also on the main boards there was a thread supposedly Kane is signing in Buffalo sometime soon. Not sure how reliable it was.

 

[dahrougem2]

It's quite remarkable how quickly Sakic and cMac managed to f*** this team after winning a cup.

Such is life in a salary cap world. You have to supplement your superstars with young, cheap depth in order to sustainably compete OR get lucky and have players outproduce their contracts.

Take Vegas for example:

Chandler Stephenson: 2.75M, yet scores 0.80 PPG last 3 seasons and is a fantastic defensive forward. He's a UFA this summer, will be primed to regress but also at least double his current salary.
Jonathan Marchessault: 5M
Shea Theodore: 5.2M top pairing defensemen

They've also got young players now establishing themselves like Pavel Dorofyev (825K), Paul Cotter (775K), and Logan Thomson (776K).


You also can't make mistakes, or at least have to minimize them. The Avs right now are paying:

4.5M to Josh Manson
4M to Ryan Johansen
4M to Ross Colton
2.5M to Miles Wood
987K to Kurtis MacDermid
1.5M to Tomas Tatar

From that list, I would argue the only worthwhile piece is Colton and he should not be making 4M. So remove his total and you've got almost 13.5M to find a 2C, 3LW, 3RW, and 3RD. Which, honestly, should be doable but the Avs made mistake after mistake with the cap.

Thus, we are where we are. A top-heavy team with limited depth due to cap casualties and cap mistakes.

 

[NOTENOUGHRYJOTHINGS]

Such is life in a salary cap world. You have to supplement your superstars with young, cheap depth in order to sustainably compete OR get lucky and have players outproduce their contracts.

Take Vegas for example:

Chandler Stephenson: 2.75M, yet scores 0.80 PPG last 3 seasons and is a fantastic defensive forward. He's a UFA this summer, will be primed to regress but also at least double his current salary.
Jonathan Marchessault: 5M
Shea Theodore: 5.2M top pairing defensemen

They've also got young players now establishing themselves like Pavel Dorofyev (825K), Paul Cotter (775K), and Logan Thomson (776K).


You also can't make mistakes, or at least have to minimize them. The Avs right now are paying:

4.5M to Josh Manson
4M to Ryan Johansen
4M to Ross Colton
2.5M to Miles Wood
987K to Kurtis MacDermid
1.5M to Tomas Tatar

From that list, I would argue the only worthwhile piece is Colton and he should not be making 4M. So remove his total and you've got almost 13.5M to find a 2C, 3LW, 3RW, and 3RD. Which, honestly, should be doable but the Avs made mistake after mistake with the cap.

Thus, we are where we are. A top-heavy team with limited depth due to cap casualties and cap mistakes.

This is the throwing shit at the wall phase.

Colton looks like a low upside third line W at this point who can fill in at C for spot duty. He should be at 3 million max and should not have cost a first rounder.

Kirivanta and whatever other moves they make now will be the smearing your shit on your own face hoping to confuse your enemies phase.

They need another 2 home runs to keep the window open.

Like a new Nuke find or Toews trade or MacK contract.

 

[Pokecheque]

In the end, shitty drafting always catches up with you.

 

[Ararana]

In the end, shitty drafting always catches up with you.

That definitely screwed them, especially in terms of extending the window as long as possible.

But their biggest failure IMO is their obvious ignorance in the importance of good center depth. I genuinely believe this core could have already had multiple cups by now if they stopped dicking around with bargain bin second line centers (and Kadri didn't get suspended).

Hell even the year they won the cup, they got lucky as hell Kadri played way above his mean. They simply haven't put much effort or assets into the second line center position and it's been the crux of almost every season they fell short.

Crazy they used to have all of MacKinnon/Stastny/ROR/Duchene at one point, then only MacKinnon and an aging Kadri in the last six years. They clearly don't care about the position.

 

[henchman21]

In the end, shitty drafting always catches up with you.

Yeah... to be fair here though, their drafting in 19/20 allowed those assets to be used in the Cup push for 22. Without drafting Helleson/Barron (and having Byram as well) the Cup is much more difficult that year. Maybe not impossible, but it would change the outlook a bit.

That definitely screwed them, especially in terms of extending the window as long as possible.

But their biggest failure IMO is their obvious ignorance in the importance of good center depth. I genuinely believe this core could have already had multiple cups by now if they stopped dicking around with bargain bin second line centers (and Kadri didn't get suspended).

Hell even the year they won the cup, they got lucky as hell Kadri played way above his mean. They simply haven't put much effort or assets into the second line center position and it's been the crux of almost every season they fell short.

Crazy they used to have all of MacKinnon/Stastny/ROR/Duchene at one point, then only MacKinnon and an aging Kadri in the last six years. They clearly don't care about the position.

This is my thought. The Avs seem to be in the camp where they think wingers are as important as centers. They've worked to keep the wingers around while abandoning the center position. Along with that, they think they can draft a center and have them NHL ready for the 2C role in 2 seasons. They only really got Kadri after a playoff/Jost failure and that was clearly meant as a bandaid until Newhook was ready. Only got RyJo after the Newhook failure. And they are clearly planning to Ritchie now.

So maybe don't care is a bit harsh, but they clearly don't value center over wingers

 

[dahrougem2]

The problem doesn't even get better next season, because let's say you buy out Johansen and trade Manson to one of his non-NTC teams.

You still have the looming return of Gabriel Landeskog and his 7M cap hit.

I have a feeling the Avs will be tempted to trade Nichushkin next summer if he continues his poor play. Or in general even if he starts to play a bit better.

They also need to trade Girard because of Toews' extension.

 

[Chiarelli]

I'd keep Johansen he can hang as a top 6 wing and it moves Lehkonen to the 3rd line where he belongs. Ditch Manson and G. Go get Lindholm and sign him long term. Move out Nuke in the summer if you need more cap space.

 

[The Abusement Park]

So maybe don't care is a bit harsh, but they clearly don't value center over wingers

They've also almost completely abandoned what made the team tick in the first place in bottom 9. Play driving ability, puck possession, and some offensive pop(quick strike ability). Having Bura, Kadri, and JTC in depth roles really added a lot of matchup problems in offensive ability and puck possesion. And they've replaced them with guys that are too workman(Lehky), too lazy(RyJo), or don't play the position(Colton). I get there's not a lot of cap space but the cohesion and fit of the team just doesn't make any sense right now. I think you could get away with RyJo if you had a Bura on his wing to drive the play, but right now you have a 2nd line who can't drive play, is quite slow and doesn't have any quick strike or sniping ability. And the 3rd line, while I think Colton has the potential to have some offensive potential, has little puck possession ability and in Woods case no consistent production threat.

 

[Ararana]

The problem doesn't even get better next season, because let's say you buy out Johansen and trade Manson to one of his non-NTC teams.

You still have the looming return of Gabriel Landeskog and his 7M cap hit.

I have a feeling the Avs will be tempted to trade Nichushkin next summer if he continues his poor play. Or in general even if he starts to play a bit better.

They also need to trade Girard because of Toews' extension.

I was screaming it from the mountain top all summer, extending Toews was a death stroke with the flat cap. You know... a lot of these problems could have been solved by trading Toews for a proper 2C and praying Byram could hang with Makar.

I'd much rather pray in a Byram-Makar pairing then watching whatever the hell they're doing at 2C right now...

 

[henchman21]

The problem doesn't even get better next season, because let's say you buy out Johansen and trade Manson to one of his non-NTC teams.

You still have the looming return of Gabriel Landeskog and his 7M cap hit.

I have a feeling the Avs will be tempted to trade Nichushkin next summer if he continues his poor play. Or in general even if he starts to play a bit better.

They also need to trade Girard because of Toews' extension.

Yeah next season is tricky... as the Avs sit (with no moves out), there is only about 2.6m in room with 9F-5D-1G. I think the minimum salary is 800k next season... which with 5 players to add is 4m. They can't even get a minimum roster as things sit if Landy comes back. This points to somebody like Manson/G being moved to even fill out the roster with semi decent pieces, let alone improve.

Say you send out G for pure futures. That gives 7.6m for 6 spots to fill out a minimum roster. Realistically, you'd need at least 7. So 2 1.5m guys, 2 1m guys, and 3 850k guys. We see the value of those prices gets with Drouin, Tatar, JMFJ, etc. You're not exactly getting the cream of the crop.

They've also almost completely abandoned what made the team tick in the first place in bottom 9. Play driving ability, puck possession, and some offensive pop(quick strike ability). Having Bura, Kadri, and JTC in depth roles really added a lot of matchup problems in offensive ability and puck possesion. And they've replaced them with guys that are too workman(Lehky), too lazy(RyJo), or don't play the position(Colton). I get there's not a lot of cap space but the cohesion and fit of the team just doesn't make any sense right now. I think you could get away with RyJo if you had a Bura on his wing to drive the play, but right now you have a 2nd line who can't drive play, is quite slow and doesn't have any quick strike or sniping ability. And the 3rd line, while I think Colton has the potential to have some offensive potential, has little puck possession ability and in Woods case no consistent production threat.

This is honestly a pretty natural progression of teams like the Avs. As the skill starts to dry up from the lineup, coaches compensate with grit and physicality instead of skill. Sometimes that works, but it changes the identity of the team and coaches have to plan with that in mind.

 

[The Abusement Park]

This is honestly a pretty natural progression of teams like the Avs. As the skill starts to dry up from the lineup, coaches compensate with grit and physicality instead of skill. Sometimes that works, but it changes the identity of the team and coaches have to plan with that in mind.

Guess that's fair. I'm surprised the Avs didn't take a look at a guy like Sprong this off season. Definitely a flawed player, but I feel like his shot and goal scoring ability would have been a good risk to take here.

 

[BobRossColton]

Using Girard and Manson for futures plus a low cost payer almost has to be the plan.

 

[SaltySkywalker]

f*** you and f*** your car too

 

[henchman21]

Guess that's fair. I'm surprised the Avs didn't take a look at a guy like Sprong this off season. Definitely a flawed player, but I feel like his shot and goal scoring ability would have been a good risk to take here.

Their guy for that this year was Drouin, last year was ERod. Tatar was/is a bit more of a sure thing, but he could be in this category too. They've been in this path before, they just need to consistently hit on these guys and that is awfully hard to do.

Using Girard and Manson for futures plus a low cost payer almost has to be the plan.

I expect G will be traded... how much the Avs get there will be up for debate. His offense is going to have to come back around though. Manson isn't bringing back a thing. His NTC narrows the window significantly, but beyond that, he's an expensive bottom pairing defensemen. We're talking about a team that is one of those 19 spots AND has the ability to overpay a defender for 2 seasons by 2.5-3m.

 

[BobRossColton]

If Girard can get us a middle 6/bottom 4D type player plus a draft pick, I'd be okay with that

 

[Pokecheque]

Yeah... to be fair here though, their drafting in 19/20 allowed those assets to be used in the Cup push for 22. Without drafting Helleson/Barron (and having Byram as well) the Cup is much more difficult that year. Maybe not impossible, but it would change the outlook a bit.

Yep, not a total disaster but still way too many big whiffs, especially at center with Jost and Newhook. You really can't win the Cup without excess contract value, and the only way to get that consistently is if you get contributors on the roster on ELCs. They're trying like hell to get it via NCAA FAs but I seriously doubt any of the guys they signed will be impact players.

 

[Chiarelli]

The depth we’re missing are 2C, 3C, middle 6 wing, and 4rd.


Kaut, Jost, newhook and an easy acquisition at the trade deadline would have solved all of this

 

[GeoRox89]

Please continue to proclaim so loudly and proudly how you’re a genius, and everyone is dumb. It’s so enjoyable and that’s why everyone likes you.

Not fond of the peak ‘I don’t think you’ll like me anyways so I’m going act in a way that allows me to believe that it’s because I have chosen this and that I don’t actually want you to anyways’ style posting?

 

[henchman21]

Yep, not a total disaster but still way too many big whiffs, especially at center with Jost and Newhook. You really can't win the Cup without excess contract value, and the only way to get that consistently is if you get contributors on the roster on ELCs. They're trying like hell to get it via NCAA FAs but I seriously doubt any of the guys they signed will be impact players.

The Jost/Newhook/OO/Kaut misses really hurt. You could probably get away with 2 maybe even 3 misses there, but all 4 really hurts. I know people will point to others in the draft and proclaim the Avs did better than those around them (where I'd mostly still disagree), but that misses the point. You really need about a 50% hit rate on your late 1sts and a 25% hit rate on your seconds to really survive through the draft. Simply have to find a way to do that and it should be the expectation.

 

[Tommy Shelby]

Remind me why we're trashing on Lehky?

 

[henchman21]

The depth we’re missing are 2C, 3C, middle 6 wing, and 4rd.


Kaut, Jost, newhook and an easy acquisition at the trade deadline would have solved all of this

Jost -> Chychrun/McAvoy (Chychrun can play right)
Kaut -> Lundestrom
Newhook -> Pinto (just Babcock his phone to delete betting apps)
Olausson -> Knies

Getting all 4 of those 'right' is a large stretch, but the Avs would be in a lot better shape. Easy to armchair scout it now... but the misses have added up.

One that also hurts is Timmins over Robertson. JRob on this team would have been deadly.

Remind me why we're trashing on Lehky?

Is anybody trashing on Lehky?

 

[The Abusement Park]

Remind me why we're trashing on Lehky?

I don't think anyones trashing Lehky. But he's not an ideal top 6 player if he has to be an important figure there. He's an unbelievable compliment there but he is part of the problem that the forward group is kind of a mess stylistically at the moment.

 

[dahrougem2]

I don't think anyones trashing Lehky. But he's not an ideal top 6 player if he has to be an important figure there. He's an unbelievable compliment there but he is part of the problem that the forward group is kind of a mess stylistically at the moment.

He absolutely is an ideal top six player. He does things that nobody else is willing to do in the top six. Especially at his cap hit.

If I'm choosing between Lehkonen and Nichushkin next summer, the choice is easy. It's Lehkonen.

 

[The Abusement Park]

He absolutely is an ideal top six player. He does things that nobody else is willing to do in the top six. Especially at his cap hit.

If I'm choosing between Lehkonen and Nichushkin next summer, the choice is easy. It's Lehkonen.

He's an ideal top 6 player to compliment skill players 100%. There's a reason he's at his best next to Mack(or Kadri during the cup run) and at his worst next to RyJo and Nuke. Again not necessarily his fault though because like I said the makeup of the forward core is a mess right now.