2023-24 San Diego Gulls/Tulsa Oilers
- Thread starter MMC
- Start date
- Status
TheGoodShepard1
Dongle Digits.
- Nov 26, 2017
- 10,607
- 15,550
GuLLLLLLLLLLLs lose 1-0 and as should not be surprising with the lack of impact forwards are really struggling to score goals.
Smirnov2Chistov
Fire Greg Cronin!
Some say I’m harsh, but nobody in this ‘prospect group’ excite me - they mostly have limited potential and can be easily replaced.
Outside of Clang, Regenda (and maybe Zellweger) there is not much to look forward to down there. It will only get worse.
Outside of Clang, Regenda (and maybe Zellweger) there is not much to look forward to down there. It will only get worse.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
We might have a middle six out of Nesterenko and King has started to take off. Both wingers moved up to the top line for the Gulls. Another player that recently has improved, according to Defend the Nest, is the play of Gaucher. He's still slated for a bottom-6 role.
Not as exciting, but probably projectable to the NHL is Tyson Hinds' defensive game. I'm surprised we're not training him to play RD in the AHL to give the Ducks possible RD depth this year and next.
The top-10 picks from 2021 (Mac), 2022 (Minty), and 2023 (Carlsson) have all bypassed the AHL. If those three set the standard for "excitement", then it does skew excitement in the AHL for all the non top-10 picks.
Not as exciting, but probably projectable to the NHL is Tyson Hinds' defensive game. I'm surprised we're not training him to play RD in the AHL to give the Ducks possible RD depth this year and next.
The top-10 picks from 2021 (Mac), 2022 (Minty), and 2023 (Carlsson) have all bypassed the AHL. If those three set the standard for "excitement", then it does skew excitement in the AHL for all the non top-10 picks.
MMC
Global Moderator
The Midnight Burrito
True Fan
The 1 goal differential is a bit deceiving, keep in mind they have an NHL goaltender in Stalock. The games don't really feel that close. Sometimes, sure.
MMC
Global Moderator
MMC
Global Moderator
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
About halfway through the 2nd period, the Gulls are down 0-3 to the Barracudas. The 'Cuda have scored 2 PP goals. Gulls are mimicking their NHL affiliate as they have 4 penalties to the 'Cuda's 1 penalty.
TheGoodShepard1
Dongle Digits.
- Nov 26, 2017
- 10,607
- 15,550
- Apr 9, 2012
- 4,094
- 4,911
He’s still based back east as far as I know, which is really weird if he truly is the AGM in charge of the Gulls. That never made much sense to me.
MMC
Global Moderator
Hamilton Bulldogs
Registered User
- Jan 11, 2022
- 4,209
- 5,969
Well at least the Gulls fans will get to see former ducks legend Comtois when his wolves come to town on friday night.
The Midnight Burrito
True Fan
I fell asleep before the 3rd, lol. I'll watch it while I work at some point today.
Interestingly, they didn't actually play better in the third. A couple nice shifts from Carrick led to a couple goals, and then the Gulls really did take over once they pulled Clang with about 2 and a half to play. Carrick was a monster in the 3rd. They look totally defeated to me. When Regenda scored the 5-2 goal no one even celebrated. Regenda didn't even bother doing the drive-by high five at the bench, just took a seat. The announcer mentioned the Gulls are 1-46-1 when trailing after 2 over the last couple years, that was before tonight's loss.
I'll give Perreault credit for some effective forechecking but he'll have a hard time producing if he can't work his way back into at least the top 6. He's not going to produce much with guys like Lopina and Pasta on his line.
Interestingly, they didn't actually play better in the third. A couple nice shifts from Carrick led to a couple goals, and then the Gulls really did take over once they pulled Clang with about 2 and a half to play. Carrick was a monster in the 3rd. They look totally defeated to me. When Regenda scored the 5-2 goal no one even celebrated. Regenda didn't even bother doing the drive-by high five at the bench, just took a seat. The announcer mentioned the Gulls are 1-46-1 when trailing after 2 over the last couple years, that was before tonight's loss.
I'll give Perreault credit for some effective forechecking but he'll have a hard time producing if he can't work his way back into at least the top 6. He's not going to produce much with guys like Lopina and Pasta on his line.
Last edited:
Admittedly, the lack of a star veteran or two has hurt the Gulls over the past couple of years. That said, the real issue is that this organization has been borderline terrible in drafting talent for most of the past 10 years. It's hard to look at the Gulls forward roster and see any future NHL talent except for 4th liners.
Not sure if it is a scouting philosophy issue or just bad scouts but it needs to change. If it doesn't (and soon), the Ducks will be plugging key holes with expensive UFA's and trades instead of homegrown ELC talent. That approach rarely works.
Not sure if it is a scouting philosophy issue or just bad scouts but it needs to change. If it doesn't (and soon), the Ducks will be plugging key holes with expensive UFA's and trades instead of homegrown ELC talent. That approach rarely works.
In all likelihood our inability to draft good complementary/depth forwards will probably force us to trade one or more of Lacombe/Zell/Luneau. We’ve gotta get some more young forward talent in the system.
By far the biggest issue for the Gulls is their forwards. Maybe Mcilvane can do something better on the margins but a 1.5 liter engine is a 1.5 liter engine.
By far the biggest issue for the Gulls is their forwards. Maybe Mcilvane can do something better on the margins but a 1.5 liter engine is a 1.5 liter engine.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
I'm lost with the Ducks have been "borderline terrible in drafting talent for the most of the past 10 years".
Playoff run (often no picking in lottery positions)
2012-13: Playoffs; Theodore (rd 1)
2013-14: Playoffs; Pettersson (rd 2), Montour (rd 2), Kase (rd 7)*
2014-15: Playoffs; Terry (rd 5)
2015-16: Playoffs; Jones** (late 1st), Steel** (late first)
2016-17: Playoffs; No first round pick (Eaves condtion), Comtois (rd 2)***
2017-18: Playoffs; Lundy (rd 1), Groulx (rd 2)
* Kase was an amazing find, but concussion derailed his career.
** Jones and Steel looked good in the AHL, but the NHL jump was too high.
*** Comtois lead the team in scoring during 2020-21 (COVID season)
Original rebuild
2018-19: Lottery; Zegras (rd 1), LaCombe (rd 2), Thrun**** (rd 4)
2019-20: Lottery; Drysdale (rd 1) ... still in NCAA: Colangelo (rd 2), Moore (rd 3)
2020-21: Lottery; McTavish (rd 1), Zell (rd 2), Hinds (rd 3) ... still in NCAA: Kukkonen (rd 6)
**** Thrun was traded because he wanted to become a FA.
Reset rebuild
2022-23: Lottery; Minty (rd 1)... to early to tell: Gaucher (rd 1), Luneau (rd 2), Warren (rd 2), King (rd 4), Hvidston (rd 5)
2023-24: Lottery; Carlsson (rd 1)
Top-10 picks make huge impact, but a gamble outside of that. The further you are from the top-10, the higher the gamble. Anaheim went on a 6-year playoff streak, none of their original pick were in the top-10. 2013-14, 10th overall Ritchie was selected due to the Bobby Ryan trade (also picked up Silf).
The top-10 picks from the original rebuild made their way to the pros in 2020-21. Zegras stayed for 17 games in the AHL and Drysdale notched 14 games in the same league. Drysdale won AHL rookie of the month. The following season, McTavish had a conditioning stint in the AHL. All three haven't stayed in the AHL long enough, Mac technically wasn't part of the Gulls since he was on a conditioning stint (he was listed as a part of the NHL club on the conditioning stint).
The top-10 picks from the reset rebuild have bypassed the AHL altogether.
Drafted Ducks with the NHL club today (regardless of injury)
Line 1: xxx - Mac - xxx
Line 2: Z - Carlsson - Terry
Line 3: xxx- Lundy - xxx
Line 4: Jones - Groulx - xxx
Pairing 1: Fowler - Drysdale
Pairing 2: LaCombe - xxx
Pairing 3: Minty - xxx
extra: Luneau
Goalies: Gibson, Dostal
Are we greedy here to say the Ducks can't draft well? And are we greedy to want an all-Ducks drafted roster that we are not supposed to acquire talent outside the org via expensive FA or trades?
Saying we suck at drafting a million times still doesn't make it true.
Everyone has praised the Ducks drafting of dmen and star calibre forwards. The criticism is surrounding the drafting of complementary scorers and capable third-line types - and it's an entirely valid criticism because the drafting has been costly.
McDonald19
Registered User
Yup. I feel like our 2nd-4th round pick forwards should at least be good AHLers, but that hasn’t been happening, with maybe the exception of Groulx.
Pasta
Lopina
Colangelo (still in NCAA, so we’ll see)
Groulx
McLaughlin
Perbix (still in NCAA, but not much of a prospect).
Morand
Badini
Olsen
Kopacka
Dostie
Nattinen
Gates
Sideroff
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
Now you're helping to move the goal post from Ducks' have been terrible at drafting for the past 10 years to "complementary scorers and capable third-line types". Hopefully, you can acknowledge what you did is a completely different conversation.
I suggest you do the research of players panning out b/c you have no idea of the success rates.
Picks 1-3
Picks 4-10
Picks 11-20
Picks 21-32
Rd 2
Rd 3
Rd 4
Rd 5
Rd 6
Rd 7
Since you're spouting things out like drafting is an easy thing to do and every prospect should pan out, you probably still won't do the research. Permit me to help those who are unwilling to do the research.
PDF: What‟s An NHL Draft Pick Worth? A Value Pick Chart for the National Hockey League
The basis of success is measured by the games played in the NHL, with 200 games played is the max. Games played is the chosen measure since it allows for a comparison of careers across positions: forward, defense, and goalies. Note, this research work was conducted when there were only 30 NHL teams, from 1988 - 1997.
Notice the steep drop off in the the first 25 picks. This steep drop off is similar to the NFL draft, using CAV over Average (CAVOA), see chart below, which also has a seven round draft.
How to Value NFL Draft Picks
Look at the black line, which is the clean version of the blue line graph. Notice the significant drop off in the first 25 picks.
I took the liberty of giving a snapshot of the NHL value per draft selection.
NHL | Draft Value | | |
|---|---|---|---|
Pick | Round | Value | Pct of Value |
1 | 1 | 917 | 1.000 |
4 | 1 | 783 | 0.854 |
10 | 1 | 565 | 0.616 |
20 | 1 | 350 | 0.382 |
30 | Rd 1 last pick | 265 | 0.289 |
60 | Rd 2 last pick | 175 | 0.191 |
120 | Rd 3 last pick | 88 | 0.096 |
Anaheim has been in playoff spot in 8 out of 10 years during it's playoff run under Murray.
- The first year we didn't make the playoffs, 2009-10, we drafted D Fowler at 12th overall.
- The second time we missed the playoffs, 2011-12, we drafted D Lindholm at 6th overall.
- Of course, we drafted Ritchie 10th overall due to the Bobby Ryan trade. Ritchie has played 287 games with the Ducks, 481 NHL games overall thus far. Ritchie wasn't a bust, but he was neither great.
- No first round pick in the 2017 draft due to Eaves trade.
- The rest of the drafts, Anaheim has been being outside the lottery. The highest pick was 15th overall in C Peter Holland. Yet another prospect who does well in the AHL, but the NHL jump was too much.
We are unsuccessful at finding quality, scoring forwards beyond the top-20 at a high rate. Palms, Rakell, Kase, and Terry did well for us. We did draft Wild Bill, but it took two more orgs for him to actualize his potential. Jones, Steel, Comtois, and Lundy have all played over 200 NHL games to date. Comtois proved he can score, but he let his body and work ethic go to waste afterwards. Tracey and Perreault are looking like career AHLers. I think we're still a little ahead of the game with respect to NHL value based upon games played.
We are bucking the trend in being superfluously successful at drafting defensemen and goalies, especially when looking beyond the 1st round. We haven't drafted a goalie in the first round since the Murray era.
Goalies drafted
- Rd 3 Andersen
- Rd 2 Gibson
- Rd 3 Dostal
- Rd 2 Clara (drafted in 2023)
D-men drafted beyond 1st round
- Rd 4 Vatanen
- Rd 6 Manson
- Rd 2 Pettersson
- Rd 2 Montour
- Rd 3 Mahura (now has 177 NHL games)
- Rd 2 LaCombe (rookie this year)
- Rd 4 Thrun (rookie this year with Sharks)
- Rd 3 Moore (NCAA junior)
- Rd 2 Zellweger (at AHL this year)
- Rd 3 Hinds (at AHL this year)
- Rd 2 Warren (at QMJHL)
- Rd 2 Luneau (at Ducks)
The way the future holds, Anaheim can boast all all drafted blue line again. Yes, again, because we did it during the playoffs for a game or two. This time around, it could be an all drafted blue line for a season or more.
Exactly. I thought that would have been obvious based upon the discussions which take place daily here. I guess not though!
The Midnight Burrito
True Fan
Still early, but since we seem to lack any sort of forward depth scoring in the pipeline, for the rebuild to succeed we'll likely need to move out some of these D prospects for young forwards who we could maybe count on for 15 minutes and 20-25 goals.
- Status
