Speculation: 2023-24 Roster Thread

[TheGoodShepard1]

I'm also not going to sit here and say that Madden and Co. are infallible, but incoming GMs like to come in and reset, so Verbeek keeping the entire amateur scouting staff (emphasis on that because the pro scouting department was admittedly terrible) with a couple exceptions and overhauling the entire development staff gives me a pretty clear indication of where the new regime thinks the fault ultimately lay.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I think people overestimate the odds of a draftee making (and sticking in) the NHL.

Odds of a Draftee Playing >99 games:
1st Round: 74%
2nd Round: 34%
3rd Round: 27%
4th Round: 22%

It's not so much that Madden & Co. are bad at drafting forwards, I think they're just really good at drafting defensemen and that affects our perspective.

From the same site reference, DobberProspects, shown graphically:

Notice the steep drop from pick 1 to pick 31. There's a significant difference if you pick in the top 5 with picking in the 20's. It's difficult in finding success the further you are from the top-5 pick.


That NHL graph (the blue line is a log plot) above reminded me of an NFL article citing the success value of its draft picks that spanned a 20 year scope.

We are looking at the raw values in the erratic blue line and the black line that cleans up the blue raw data (log line). This draft graph and the NHL draft graph are very similar.

For a decade under Murray & Madden, 2009 draft to 2018, Anaheim was a playoff team. In the two times we didn't make the playoffs, we drafted D Fowler at 12th overall in 2010 and D Lindholm at 6th overall in 2012. We did have a top-10 pick in 2014 in LW Ritchie from the Bobby Ryan trade.
Since the 2019 draft, we've been picking in the top-10.

2019: 9th C Zegras​

2020: 6th D Drysdale​

2021: 3rd C McTavish​

2022: 10th D Mintyukov​

2023: 2nd C Carlsson​

It isn't surprising to see more success/potential success with forwards in the past five drafts.

 

[Sean Garrity]

From the same site reference, DobberProspects, shown graphically:

View attachment 728165

Notice the steep drop from pick 1 to pick 31. There's a significant difference if you pick in the top 5 with picking in the 20's. It's difficult in finding success the further you are from the top-5 pick.


That NHL graph (the blue line is a log plot) above reminded me of an NFL article citing the success value of its draft picks that spanned a 20 year scope.

View attachment 728166

We are looking at the raw values in the erratic blue line and the black line that cleans up the blue raw data (log line). This draft graph and the NHL draft graph are very similar.

For a decade under Murray & Madden, 2009 draft to 2018, Anaheim was a playoff team. In the two times we didn't make the playoffs, we drafted D Fowler at 12th overall in 2010 and D Lindholm at 6th overall in 2012. We did have a top-10 pick in 2014 in LW Ritchie from the Bobby Ryan trade.
Since the 2019 draft, we've been picking in the top-10.

2019: 9th C Zegras​

2020: 6th D Drysdale​

2021: 3rd C McTavish​

2022: 10th D Mintyukov​

2023: 2nd C Carlsson​

It isn't surprising to see more success/potential success with forwards in the past five drafts.

I feel like he's hit on forwards when he had to, so top 10, and pulled out a couple of solid NHLers and one star in a really late round. We can all point to Ritchie, and I'm on board that he was a disappointment but if you looked at statistics he's probably a very good 10th overall pick playing close to 500 games in the league.

 

[Mr Rogers]

They’ve done well at drafting scorers it seems like when they’ve taken a forward with a high pick and honestly that’s more important than anything. My only gripe is some of the depth guys haven’t amounted to much, but there could be a little development stuff mixed in too there. Like we’ve been bad for a while and probably only have one forward prospect in our top 6 or 7. That just doesn’t look good, something is off and I don’t want to say it’s all because of this or all because of that.

 

[DavidBL]

I think it's easy to overlook the success when we really have only drafted 4 top 6 forwards between Perry and Zegras: Ryan, Rakell, Karlsson and Terry. Did I miss anyone. None of those have really been stars. We haven't been able to turn a late pick into a Kucherov, or Pastarnak or really even a Larkin. It overshadows the rest of the success.

 

[Gliff]

I think it's easy to overlook the success when we really have only drafted 4 top 6 forwards between Perry and Zegras: Ryan, Rakell, Karlsson and Terry. Did I miss anyone. None of those have really been stars. We haven't been able to turn a late pick into a Kucherov, or Pastarnak or really even a Larkin. It overshadows the rest of the success.

Totally understand what you are saying, but those picks are so rare.

I would rather have a team that turns out consistent NHLers then a team that doesn't and maybe has a 1% chance of getting that diamond in the rough. It is really hard to be good at drafting in the NHL.

Look at Boston. Since 2007 they have developed a total of 2 top 6 forwards (Seguin and Pasta) and 1 was a top 2 pick. Would you say they are better at drafting top 6 forwards since they hit on 1 pick?

 

[Leonardo87]

I think it's easy to overlook the success when we really have only drafted 4 top 6 forwards between Perry and Zegras: Ryan, Rakell, Karlsson and Terry. Did I miss anyone. None of those have really been stars. We haven't been able to turn a late pick into a Kucherov, or Pastarnak or really even a Larkin. It overshadows the rest of the success.

It’s interesting to note that Verbeek was part of that management group that picked Kucherov, Point , Palat, and Cirelli.

 

[DavidBL]

Totally understand what you are saying, but those picks are so rare.

I would rather have a team that turns out consistent NHLers then a team that doesn't and maybe has a 1% chance of getting that diamond in the rough. It is really hard to be good at drafting in the NHL.

Look at Boston. Since 2007 they have developed a total of 2 top 6 forwards (Seguin and Pasta) and 1 was a top 2 pick. Would you say they are better at drafting top 6 forwards since they hit on 1 pick?

You wouldn't consider Debrusk a top 6 forward? 3 vs 4 and 2 of their guys were are legit stars. I'd probably lean towards Boston. Got to remember one of ours was a 2oa pick too. Also easy to forget Kessel which puts them even with the Ducks or we'd have to exclude Ryan for this comparison: Ryan, Rakell, Karlsson, Terry vs Kessel, Seguin, Pasta and Debrusk.
Edit: you include 2006 and tou get Marchand and Lucic too. Yes they have been better at drafting forward in that time. Though to be fair they're last fee years look a bit rough.

 

[Reveille1984]

Overall, roster depth is more important than having "stars" IMHO anyways. Especially defensively and down the middle. Wings are easier to find in free agency/trade than top flight Cs/Ds.

Sure, we haven't hit much on forwards in later rounds. But if if Zegras/Terry can continue on their trajectory (Zegras with some added upside), Carlsson can hit as a bonafide 1C Kopitar type and McTavish a 60-70 point defensively responsible 2C then that's a really good, really young top 6 forward core.

The big caveat to our success is going to be how our defense prospects progress. I think Mintyukov is the most important in this regard honestly. If he can hit his ceiling as a 1D that will solve a lot of our problems down the line, but that's a big ask. Drysdale/Zellweger are likely more in the realm of second pairing guys.

 

[Gliff]

You wouldn't consider Debrusk a top 6 forward? 3 vs 4 and 2 of their guys were are legit stars. I'd probably lean towards Boston. Got to remember one of ours was a 2oa pick too. Also easy to forget Kessel which puts them even with the Ducks or we'd have to exclude Ryan for this comparison: Ryan, Rakell, Karlsson, Terry vs Kessel, Seguin, Pasta and Debrusk.
Edit: you include 2006 and tou get Marchand and Lucic too. Yes they have been better at drafting forward in that time. Though to be fair they're last fee years look a bit rough.

Not at all. He had 50 points (8th on the team) on the best team in NHL history. He is a 45 point guy and I expect his totals next year to go right back down to where they have been his whole career. I may be wrong but I doubt it.

I don't think what the teams did over 15 years ago should actually matter. Its literally a whole generation of players ago. But regardless, you didn't give the Ducks Palmieri.

My point is it isn't like the Bruins are churning out top 6 forwards every draft. Noone is.
The Ducks did however draft 9 top 4 defensemen in 10 years. That is insane.

 

[DavidBL]

Not at all. He had 50 points (8th on the team) on the best team in NHL history. He is a 45 point guy and I expect his totals next year to go right back down to where they have been his whole career. I may be wrong but I doubt it.

I don't think what the teams did over 15 years ago should actually matter. Its literally a whole generation of players ago. But regardless, you didn't give the Ducks Palmieri.

My point is it isn't like the Bruins are churning out top 6 forwards every draft. Noone is.
The Ducks did however draft 9 top 4 defensemen in 10 years. That is insane.

That's fair, I forgot Palms. Don't disagree with you, I was just pointing out how it could be perceived we aren't as good at drafting as the media suggests especially when you're looking at forwards. It's really too bad we didn't manage to turn those D men into more top 6 forwards.

 

[Gliff]

I haven't actually looked into the numbers to back this up, but I feel like the Ducks are middle of the road when it comes to developing forwards. They have had a few but obviously not as much as a lot of teams.

But on defense they are clearly number 1, and number 1 by a lot. Like I said, 9 top 4 defensemen from 08-14. Then not much from 15-18, and from 19-now they have been killing it on defensemen again.

Thrun
LaCombe
Moore
Drysdale
Hinds
Zellweger
Luneau
Minty

Even if only half of those guys become top 4 defensemen, thats another 4 guys in 5 drafts.

A lot of teams would kill to trade places with the Ducks when it comes to draft results.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I think it's easy to overlook the success when we really have only drafted 4 top 6 forwards between Perry and Zegras: Ryan, Rakell, Karlsson and Terry. Did I miss anyone. None of those have really been stars. We haven't been able to turn a late pick into a Kucherov, or Pastarnak or really even a Larkin. It overshadows the rest of the success.

@Gliff pointed out Palmieri. I want to point out Kase. Kase is a top-6 forward, but his concussion issues prevented that from panning out.

 

[Sean Garrity]

I haven't actually looked into the numbers to back this up, but I feel like the Ducks are middle of the road when it comes to developing forwards. They have had a few but obviously not as much as a lot of teams.

But on defense they are clearly number 1, and number 1 by a lot. Like I said, 9 top 4 defensemen from 08-14. Then not much from 15-18, and from 19-now they have been killing it on defensemen again.

Thrun
LaCombe
Moore
Drysdale
Hinds
Zellweger
Luneau
Minty

Even if only half of those guys become top 4 defensemen, thats another 4 guys in 5 drafts.

A lot of teams would kill to trade places with the Ducks when it comes to draft results.

I heard something on NHL radio and there was something like 12 Anaheim draft picks in the past 8 years in the NHL and getting top 4 minutes in the NHl. That's just crazy. Numbers may be slightly off, it was like a week ago when I listened to this.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I haven't actually looked into the numbers to back this up, but I feel like the Ducks are middle of the road when it comes to developing forwards. They have had a few but obviously not as much as a lot of teams.

But on defense they are clearly number 1, and number 1 by a lot. Like I said, 9 top 4 defensemen from 08-14. Then not much from 15-18, and from 19-now they have been killing it on defensemen again.

Thrun
LaCombe
Moore
Drysdale
Hinds
Zellweger
Luneau
Minty

Even if only half of those guys become top 4 defensemen, thats another 4 guys in 5 drafts.

A lot of teams would kill to trade places with the Ducks when it comes to draft results.

I want to point out that the Ducks only drafted two defensemen between the 2016-18 drafts: Rd 3 Mahura (2016) and Rd 6 Drew (2018). Anaheim gave the league a three draft handicap to catch up on defensive prospects. We finally went back to a balanced draft in 2019.

In 2019, we drafted four D-men. One in the first three rounds, LaCombe.
In 2020, we drafted three D-men. Two in the first three rounds, Drysdale and Moore.
In 2021, we drafted two D-men. Two in the first three rounds, Zellweger and Hinds.
In 2022, we drafted three D-men. Three in the first two rounds, Mintyukov, Warren, and Luneau.
In 2023, we drafted three D-men. None in the first three rounds.

 

[McDonald19]

In the same draft Madden did well with Palms he picked Holland 15th.

Kase was definitely a rare late round gem. Damn concussions…

 

[AngelDuck]

Henrique-Carlsson-Terry
Zegras-McTavish-Killorn
Jones-Strome-Vatrano

Would like to see this top 9 tried

 

[Hockey Duckie]

In the same draft Madden did well with Palms he picked Holland 15th.

Kase was definitely a rare late round gem. Damn concussions…

One of the things I missed about BM is his ability to push picks/prospects forward.

• BM traded Holland (and Staubitz) for prospect Blacker, 2014 second rd pick, and 2014 seventh round pick.
  
  • That 2nd round pick turned out to be D Pettersson. Who we then traded for Sprong. The line ended there.
  • That 7th round pick turned out to be RW Kase. We then traded Kase to the Bruins for Backes salary dump, prospect RD Andersson (no longer with team due to being made out of glass than lack of talent), and a 2020 first round pick. That first round pick became RW Perreault. Perreault is still in San Diego, going into his second season of his ELC.

Holland was drafted in 2009. Perreault was drafted in 2020 and is still part of the org.

 

[DavidBL]

Henrique-Carlsson-Terry
Zegras-McTavish-Killorn
Jones-Strome-Vatrano

Would like to see this top 9 tried

I'd probably swap McTavish and Calrsson.

 

[Leonardo87]

Henrique-Carlsson-Terry
Zegras-McTavish-Killorn
Jones-Strome-Vatrano

Would like to see this top 9 tried

When you have Strome and Vatrano pushed to the 3rd line, you know the depth of the team is starting to get much deeper.

 

[Tony O]

Henrique-Carlsson-Terry
Zegras-McTavish-Killorn
Jones-Strome-Vatrano

Would like to see this top 9 tried

Move McTavish to the wall. Keep Z up the middle.

Henrique-Zegras-Terry
McTavish-Carlsson-Killorn
Jones-Strome-Vatrano

 

[Deuce22]

One of the things I missed about BM is his ability to push picks/prospects forward.

• BM traded Holland (and Staubitz) for prospect Blacker, 2014 second rd pick, and 2014 seventh round pick.
  • That 2nd round pick turned out to be D Pettersson. Who we then traded for Sprong. The line ended there.
  • That 7th round pick turned out to be RW Kase. We then traded Kase to the Bruins for Backes salary dump, prospect RD Andersson (no longer with team due to being made out of glass than lack of talent), and a 2020 first round pick. That first round pick became RW Perreault. Perreault is still in San Diego, going into his second season of his ELC.

Holland was drafted in 2009. Perreault was drafted in 2020 and is still part of the org.

A lot of gymnastics here to turn a poor first rounder into Sprong and Perreault and cite it as a positive. Who drafted Holland in the first place? Who traded a competent D for a forward who was scratched often by Coach Murray? The only thing that was good here was Kase. Perreault has all the signs of a bust.

 

[Mr Rogers]

the Holland pick hurt, I definitely was way wrong on him, thought he'd become a 2C. I kinda remember him being a little off the board. Snarktacular was spot on from very early on with him. I remember watching him very closely during his 09-10 OHL season and he just was disappointing, he'd put up 3/4 points in a game and then go scoreless for stretches. absolutely a motivation/work-ethic issue with him but I also think they must've screwed up on evaluating on his hockey IQ and skills. outside of a decent shot, he looked absolutely lost out there and couldn't make plays to save his life.

that really wasn't a great draft after the top 7 or so in hindsight. luckily the Ducks ended up with two of only a handful of good players picked after Holland (Palms/Silf)

 

[cheesymc]

When you have Strome and Vatrano pushed to the 3rd line, you know the depth of the team is starting to get much deeper.

And it’s going to make Strome’s contract look like another Verbeek winner when he ‘anchors’ the 4rth line next season.

 

[Leonardo87]

And it’s going to make Strome’s contract look like another Verbeek winner when he ‘anchors’ the 4rth line next season.

We aren’t there yet. Strome will probably be at the end of his contract, before that happens.