Speculation: 2023-24 Roster Thread

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I recall at the end of one period that Mac was stuck on the bench as everyone else went it. He used his hockey stick as a cane to go back into the locker room. I don't know which game that was, but who knows if he's still ailing from that a bit.

I don’t think he is 100 percent.
 
Post that in the overrated Zegras thread on the main board and watch everyone lose their minds.
 
I wish he'd get back to that. He's better at pucky flippy than he is at playing boring Cronin north south hockey.

It does seem crazy to think Z and Terry were scoring more under Eakins.

2022-23 after 36 games
Terry, 36 games: 31 points (12g + 19a) ... 0.86 ppg
Zegras, 36 games: 27 points (10g + 17a) ... 0.75 ppg

2023-24 after 36 games
Terry, 35 games: 22 pts (9g + 13a) ... 0.63 ppg
Zegras, 16 games: 5 pts (2g + 3a) ... 0.31 ppg
 
Here are some stats..

GA/GP
Last Season - 4.09
This Season - 3.39

GF/GP

Last Season - 2.51
This Season - 2.56

PP

Last Season - 15.7%
This Season - 20.2%

PK

Last Season - 72.1%
This Season - 80.1%


Improved defense, but offense has been pretty much the same as last season.
 
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It does seem crazy to think Z and Terry were scoring more under Eakins.

2022-23 after 36 games
Terry, 36 games: 31 points (12g + 19a) ... 0.86 ppg
Zegras, 36 games: 27 points (10g + 17a) ... 0.75 ppg

2023-24 after 36 games
Terry, 35 games: 22 pts (9g + 13a) ... 0.63 ppg
Zegras, 16 games: 5 pts (2g + 3a) ... 0.31 ppg

This is the most depressing chunk of stats I've seen this season.
 
Here are some stats..

GA/GP
Last Season - 4.09
This Season - 3.39

GF/GP

Last Season - 2.51
This Season - 2.56

PP

Last Season - 15.7%
This Season - 20.2%

PK

Last Season - 72.1%
This Season - 80.1%


Improved defense, but offense has been pretty much the same as last season.

Current GF/GP and GA/GP league average is 3.08 (average of 114 goals for 37 games), as per Hockey Reference.

I've been covering this most of this season and there's some hidden stuff. For example, our PP is much more improved this season. That makes our even strength GF/GP average more impotent. Eakins' even strength scoring was better.

Next, looking at our GA/GP this year and our improved PK unit, that looks like a great improvement despite being above the league average. Yet, with the 80.1% PK efficiency, we have the highest TSH opportunities. That means we are letting in a lot more goals than the PK eff% shares. Here's proof:

  • PK Eff Rank
    • 15th. Tampa Bay: 80.36%
      PK Goals Against = 22 goals
      TSH = 112 ⬅️
      .
    • 16th. Anaheim: 80.12%
      PK Goals Against = 32 goals
      TSH = 161 ⬅️
      .
    • 17th. Edmonton = 79.84%
      PK Goals Against = 25 goals
      TSH = 124 ⬅️

      If Anaheim had far fewer TSH opportunities, then we would reduce our GA's by 7 to 10 goals. With 10 fewer goals against, our GA/PG rate would be 3.11. We would be much closer to the league average, which is 3.08.

Therein lies yet another big problem under Cronin, penalties.

PP Opportunities Against (PPOA)/GP
Last season = 3.41
This season = 4.47

That's an extra PKOA per game this year than last year! We were more disciplined under Eakins when comparing at this point of Cronin's career as the Ducks' head coach. Gotta say that it's only 36 games, which is 44% of the season.

And to bring this all home.... with a more talented roster, an improved defense, PP, and PK under new HC Cronin, just how much better are we?

Record after 36 games
  • Last year = 10-22-4 (24 points)
  • This year = 13-23-0 (26 points)
 
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I'm kina perplexed about Cronin's comment on Mac:

"You think about Mason, he's been around a while, but he's 20. I get frustrated like 'why isn't this happening quicker? Why isn't his game getting better?' We all want to see incremental growth, it's about measuring things, right?
He's one of those guys that'll have two or three really good games and you get really excited about where it's going, then there's a drop-off. Pat [Verbeek] keeps reminding me he's a 20-year old kid, he's still trying to figure it out."

Mac was a rookie last year. He's a better player this year than last year despite his roller coaster production. It takes our GM to remind our HC that Mac is only 20 years old. Cronin's gotta do a better job of individualized development rather than the usual plug-n-chug linear development results.
 
Here are some stats..

GA/GP
Last Season - 4.09
This Season - 3.39

GF/GP

Last Season - 2.51
This Season - 2.56

PP

Last Season - 15.7%
This Season - 20.2%

PK

Last Season - 72.1%
This Season - 80.1%


Improved defense, but offense has been pretty much the same as last season.

I need a @Hockey Duckie breakdown on the back end. As much as we clowned on last year's group, it seems like we got way more goals from the defensemen last year than this year, which is intriguing given that this system is supposed to allow the defensemen room to roam.
 
We really are sorely lacking in real veteran leadership. Our home grown vets show nothing and so far Killeen has been highly disappointing in leadership, although perhaps if he stays healthy that could change.
 
I need a @Hockey Duckie breakdown on the back end. As much as we clowned on last year's group, it seems like we got way more goals from the defensemen last year than this year, which is intriguing given that this system is supposed to allow the defensemen room to roam.


Ducks 37 Games
2022-23GoalsPoints.2023-24GoalsPoints
Fowler
4​
17​
Fowler
2​
17​
Shatty
0​
9​
Mintyukov
2​
18​
Klingberg
4​
11​
Gudas
4​
9​
Kulikov
2​
9​
Vaak
0​
6​
Benoit
0​
0​
Lyubushkin
0​
4​
White
0​
1​
LaCombe
0​
4​
Drysdale
0​
0​
Drysdale
1​
3​
Beaulieu
0​
3​
Luneau
1​
2​
Total
10​
50​
Total
10​
63​

Geez. We really have more talent on the blueline this year than last year. Drysdale last year (0pts in 8 games) was a weaker talent than Drysdale this year (1g + 3a in 7 games).
 
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