2023-24 Roster Thread #7: A shave and a haircut, two bits

[Rebels57]

Leafs are always mentioned around the flyers d. Knies and Robertson are the obvious names to scout.

Now if you want to go long long long shot. Since Samsonov got the start would the leafs make a run at Hart?

Or something along the lines of leafs have interest in risto and will trade picks but you have to take samsonov back to make it work under the cap?

Just spit balling.

With that doofus Treliving now running the Leafs, anything is possible. I'd definitely be taking a run at their top young players.

 

[Beef Invictus]

So the system is not conservative, but the Center is like a 3rd Defensemen. It's not conservative. Don't put it in the newspaper that they're conservative.

They're not allowed to pass across the ice without enraging the coach. But that's good, actually. Limiting your options is for the best. Less thinking. It's just easier.

 

[Rebels57]

“Hanging on” reminds me of the days of watching VDV and PEB out for every empty net to grind the clock down for 1.5 minutes against an onslaught…..instead of scoring.

Frost is a very savvy defensive player. It’s showing in the metrics this season. This team just has incredibly oversimplified views on defense. And refuses to look past stereotypes.

 

[Matti Mich]

When the Flyers win the Cup this year Torts is gonna make sure he's listed as the Coach and the Captain.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

When the Flyers win the Cup this year Torts is gonna make sure he's listed as the Coach and the Captain.

Speaking of this, let’s say the Flyers did win the Cup.

The absurdity that Scott Laughton would be the first person to get the Cup is frankly astonishing to think about.

 

[Curufinwe]

Speaking of this, let’s say the Flyers did win the Cup.

The absurdity that Scott Laughton would be the first person to get the Cup is frankly astonishing to think about.

Not if he wins the Conn Smythe, too.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Laughton does have longest tenure unless someone has completely slipped my mind so I guess I'm fine with it. He'd presumably have gotten it second anyway.

 

[FromOyVey2Matvei]

Speaking of this, let’s say the Flyers did win the Cup.

The absurdity that Scott Laughton would be the first person to get the Cup is frankly astonishing to think about.

Torts or Deslauriers are the first to touch the cup

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Laughton does have longest tenure unless someone has completely slipped my mind so I guess I'm fine with it. He'd presumably have gotten it second anyway.

Not sure if serious…

someone completely slipped your mind.

 

[deadhead]

So the system is not conservative, but the Center is like a 3rd Defensemen. It's not conservative. Don't put it in the newspaper that they're conservative.

They play zone, not man to man, so on defense it's a 3-2.
That has nothing to do with being "conservative," it's scheme and role.
Conservative is Hakstol.

 

[BritainStix]

Laughton does have longest tenure unless someone has completely slipped my mind so I guess I'm fine with it. He'd presumably have gotten it second anyway.

Couturier is the longest tenured flyer. 2011.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Couturier is the longest tenured flyer. 2011.

I flipped their draft years in my brain

 

[Curufinwe]

<------- 2011

 

[GKJ]

Is Sanheim actually good?

I was surprised to see this given how often we’ve been told that Sanheim is basically a 1D this year.

 

[VladDrag]

Is Sanheim actually good?

I was surprised to see this given how often we’ve been told that Sanheim is basically a 1D this year.

I've been hemming and hauling over this for some time...I just never brought it here because I am not sure how to explain it. I don't really like the Hockeyviz Magnus/sG model right now, which is what is being shown here. I have seen lots of inconsistencies throughout that model during this season. It also should be noted that it's Micah's first year with sG, and there will be improvements as he moves forward. This doesn't mean this is wrong or bad, but it may be one of the reasons. I have wondered if he has the weighting correct.

With that being, here is the actual sG model outputs:

Basically, what this is saying is that his 5v5 offense and PP numbers are making him bad, and everything else is breaking even. But, I find that to be a bit odd, given his plus finishing and plus setting. I asked Micah about it in the thread, maybe he'll respond.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Show Torrey Krug’s.

 

[trostol]

Is Sanheim actually good?

I was surprised to see this given how often we’ve been told that Sanheim is basically a 1D this year.

They are speaking a alien language to me lol

 

[Curufinwe]

I don't get how his 5v5 offense can be bad when he scoring at a much higher rate than any other regular Flyers dman.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[deadhead]

I've been hemming and hauling over this for some time...I just never brought it here because I am not sure how to explain it. I don't really like the Hockeyviz Magnus/sG model right now, which is what is being shown here. I have seen lots of inconsistencies throughout that model during this season. It also should be noted that it's Micah's first year with sG, and there will be improvements as he moves forward. This doesn't mean this is wrong or bad, but it may be one of the reasons. I have wondered if he has the weighting correct.

With that being, here is the actual sG model outputs:

View attachment 805196

Basically, what this is saying is that his 5v5 offense and PP numbers are making him bad, and everything else is breaking even. But, I find that to be a bit odd, given his plus finishing and plus setting. I asked Micah about it in the thread, maybe he'll respond.

I'm wary of most of those models, they seem to overvalue offensive production, and under value defense and PK. Now they're not completely symmetric, but I don't see how you can be 99% on offense, 2% on defense, and 95% on WAR, which I've seen with some players on multiple models.

My suspicion is like with baseball, where offense was overrated until good defensive statistics became available (in terms of run suppression) and defense became a bigger contributor to WAR, the same will happen in hockey as better data becomes available.

Left Out Variable Error is the bane of all regressions.

 

[FLYguy3911]

His shot and chance metrics for are way down. On the flipside his shot and chance metrics against are very good. Imagine telling someone 8 years ago that Travis Sanheim would be a low event player?

He has points on over half the goals scored when he is on the ice so his skill level certainly didn't deteriorate. Definitely feels like he's been involved in fewer sustained cycles to the naked eye though.

He has drastic splits between playing with the top 6 and the bottom 6. Over 40% of Deslauriers' time on ice came with Sanheim on the ice the last time I checked lol. Play enough with one of the worst (the worst?) players in the league, numbers are going to suffer. Especially for a player whose calling card is activating in transition.

I would be interested to see how he plays with Drysdale, but with Torts already saying he likes him better on the right side (after two games!) I'm not sure when we are going to see that pair.

 

[Bard Marchand]

Speaking of this, let’s say the Flyers did win the Cup.

The absurdity that Scott Laughton would be the first person to get the Cup is frankly astonishing to think about.

Nah, someone will immediately hand the cup to the esteemed veteran dman on the team.

"AND AFTER 17 YEARS, MARC STAAL!"

 

[GKJ]

His shot and chance metrics for are way down. On the flipside his shot and chance metrics against are very good. Imagine telling someone 8 years ago that Travis Sanheim would be a low event player?

He has points on over half the goals scored when he is on the ice so his skill level certainly didn't deteriorate. Definitely feels like he's been involved in fewer sustained cycles to the naked eye though.

He has drastic splits between playing with the top 6 and the bottom 6. Over 40% of Deslauriers' time on ice came with Sanheim on the ice the last time I checked lol. Play enough with one of the worst (the worst?) players in the league, numbers are going to suffer. Especially for a player whose calling card is activating in transition.

I would be interested to see how he plays with Drysdale, but with Torts already saying he likes him better on the right side (after two games!) I'm not sure when we are going to see that pair.

It makes sense to me considering most of the guys who lived through Hakstol and Vigneault had their games so thoroughly torn down that all their strengths and weaknesses upon being drafted completely flipped.

 

[VladDrag]

I'm wary of most of those models, they seem to overvalue offensive production, and under value defense and PK. Now they're not completely symmetric, but I don't see how you can be 99% on offense, 2% on defense, and 95% on WAR, which I've seen with some players on multiple models.

My suspicion is like with baseball, where offense was overrated until good defensive statistics became available (in terms of run suppression) and defense became a bigger contributor to WAR, the same will happen in hockey as better data becomes available.

Left Out Variable Error is the bane of all regressions.

Maybe you overvalue defensive impact?

I think the reason that offensive production is valued much higher is that even the best defensive players in the world cannot prevent the best offensive players from generating chances. Also there is less variation in defensive metrics from the best in the worst which basically means the spread between the best and the worst isn't as wide as the spread between the best and worst offensive players. So in other words, you can be an awesome offensive talent, shit defensively and still be one of the most positively impactful players in the NHL.

But, that being said, I think these models are not as good at identifying individual defensive impacts vs individual offensive impacts.

 

[BiggE]

Maybe you overvalue defensive impact?

I think the reason that offensive production is valued much higher is that even the best defensive players in the world cannot prevent the best offensive players from generating chances. Also there is less variation in defensive metrics from the best in the worst which basically means the spread between the best and the worst isn't as wide as the spread between the best and worst offensive players. So in other words, you can be an awesome offensive talent, shit defensively and still be one of the most positively impactful players in the NHL.

But, that being said, I think these models are not as good at identifying individual defensive impacts vs individual offensive impacts.

People too often mistake defense as how a player defends in their own zone. That’s not how you should judge defensive play though. The key to defense, is to control puck possession and keep the puck away from the other team. Sean Couturier is excellent at this.

It’s not a new concept. Fred Shero used to say that Bobby Orr was the best defensive player in the NHL because the puck was always on his stick. You could say the same about Gretzky and Mario too. Shot blocking is last resort defense, the point is too not allow the opponent to shoot in the first place.

Give me 18 guys who are plus possession players with at least 4 or 5 forwards with above average skills, at least 2 D with the same, and a good goalie and you have a contending team.

 

[Magua]

People too often mistake defense as how a player defends in their own zone. That’s not how you should judge defensive play though. The key to defense, is to control puck possession and keep the puck away from the other team. Sean Couturier is excellent at this.

It’s not a new concept. Fred Shero used to say that Bobby Orr was the best defensive player in the NHL because the puck was always on his stick. You could say the same about Gretzky and Mario too. Shot blocking is last resort defense, the point is too not allow the opponent to shoot in the first place.

Give me 18 guys who are plus possession players with at least 4 or 5 forwards with above average skills, at least 2 D with the same, and a good goalie and you have a contending team.

We’ve seen a popular terminology switch, among coaches and the like, in switching the word “defense” out with “checking.” (Not that kind, sit down, Deslauriers.) It removes the dichotomous aspects with the implication that checking is a 3-zone concept. Some players excel at different aspects of that. It’s a bit different than “puck controlling,” which is obviously the goal, in keeping the discussion centered on off-puck work.

I think Provorov is an even better example than Hagg or someone in differentiating between technique and impact. He absolutely had solid technique: gaps, body leveraging, stick work. And yet he got caved defensively for complex reasons, often having to do with the puck. Prime Justin Braun? Technique and impact. You can be pretty bad in traditional defense and have great impacts. But that does not describe Frost.