Boston Bruins 2023-24 Roster and Salary Cap Discussion VI

[RussellmaniaKW]

Debrusk averages

67 gp / 20g / 19/ 39p per season before this season started.

That’s not $6m a year worthy. That offensive production is easily replaceable and they can find someone to take his PK minutes.

Can we agree to leave out the COVID years? If you're actually trying to determine what Debrusk contributes it feels like including those seasons skews the numbers (this would be true for most players fwiw).

If you ignore the 19/20 and 20/21 seasons he averages 47 points. That's a better representation of his offensive value.

With that said, here's a comp for Jake: Zach Hyman was basically a ~37 point guy with Toronto. He'd never scored more than 21 goals or 41 points in a season. Edmonton signed him long-term for $5.5m and now he's a point-per-game+ guy in his early 30s. What they have in common is that both guys in their 20s were inconsistent offensive players, with a sound 2-way game and the ability to produce with elite players.

Looking to the future with Jake, could he find a permanent spot on Pastrnak's line as Marchand ages & declines over the next few years? I don't see why not (other than Monty being unable to leave any 1 line together for more than 3 periods).

So the question with Jake, is if you assume his floor is 35-45 point guy who is good defensively and gets strong analytic results what's a fair number? $5.5 seems like market value to me based on that Hyman comp (and probably others). You could probably make a case for $6m given cap-flation, etc. I don't think it's a huge stretch. He almost certainly won't be worse than he is now, but with the right linemates you're looking at a potential 50+ points, 30+ goal guy (maybe even more ala Hyman).

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Based on that list alone I’d have a hard time arguing Debrusk is owed more than Compher. Especially if he continues to struggle putting up numbers.

Really? Compher has hit 40 points once in his career. Never more than 18 goals. He’s a center so that adds to it obviously. But kind of a weird comp. Even then the guy got 5x$5.1M.

Also people need to remember the cap jump for every team. That money isn’t going to go to the bottom of the roster.

 

[Dr Hook]

Also people need to remember the cap jump for every team. That money isn’t going to go to the bottom of the roster.

Be sure to remind Sweeney about that

 

[The National]

4th times a charm?

 

[Hookslide]

4th times a charm?

What is the Bruins fans general opinion?

 

[goldnblack]

Generally speaking the kid that the whole team says can't pack a suitcase, is very often (not always) a guy you wanna be real careful on handing too much money and too much term to. It's the same guy who's had some team issues before too. Let's be clear, Poitras already is twice the player mentally than Debrusk is.

So with that in mind, I think there's maybe room for something like 5m times 4. A deal you really hope looks amazing in years 3 and 4. He gets zero nmc or ntc. If the deal ends up being bad, it's bad by 2M a year in a worst case. And in a best case, he's maybe 3M less than his peers in 2027.

 

[The National]

What is the Bruins fans general opinion?

I was mostly joking. He seems like a lost cause at this point but the risk isn’t too high. His caphit is only 2.6m for the rest of the year, but his production has been spotty to brutal the last few years.

Don’t think they’ll bite.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Generally speaking the kid that the whole team says can't pack a suitcase, is very often (not always) a guy you wanna be real careful on handing too much money and too much term to. It's the same guy who's had some team issues before too. Let's be clear, Poitras already is twice the player mentally than Debrusk is.

So with that in mind, I think there's maybe room for something like 5m times 4. A deal you really hope looks amazing in years 3 and 4. He gets zero nmc or ntc. If the deal ends up being bad, it's bad by 2M a year in a worst case. And in a best case, he's maybe 3M less than his peers in 2027.

That’s a moot point though. If that’s your offer Jake is going to go to free agency and get way more than that.

 

[The National]

If nerd numbers interest you

 

[BergyWho37]

Calgary stinks and has very average wingers. I would say that is reason enough.

Conroy won’t risk any of it unless it’s a guaranteed extension in place maybe if both teams could get agreements Hanifin (4.95mil) or Lindholm (4.85mil) for DeBrusk (4mil) base of a deal cause the money is close this year.
Obviously the guys I mentioned will get paid more next year but what would the trade value difference be to get one cause to get both it’s even more complicated..

trading for RNH on this team is dumb, either ride your rookies or get an impact player.

I can’t see Oil biting anyways they know what they have in RNH and he is very effective on there PP why gamble on DeBrusk even signed unless say Ullmark is part of a bigger package which then effects dollars in and out so doubt it works.

Day Dream 3 way deal

Edm : Ullmark - (something small from Flames)

Cgy : DeBrusk signed - RNH - (something small from Bruins)

Bos : Hanifin - Lindholm hopefully both signed

I admit I get a bit lost what the cost could get to if they’re both signed but the money works for a base of a deal.

Yes NTC or NMC could effect the whole deal don’t need to be told that was just laying something out there for fun.

 

[NeelyDan]

Jake being defensively responsible (i.e. "200 foot player") is table stakes - especially in an organization like ours. It's not something that should come at the expense of production/used as justification for lack of production.

 

[goldnblack]

That’s a moot point though. If that’s your offer Jake is going to go to free agency and get way more than that.

Did Marchand?

I think if Jake gets 35 pts and Boston offers him something with a 5 handle for four years, he'd think about staying. Depends how much the culture means to him. He wouldn't be the first player to take 1m less to stay. Maybe the term is 5 years not 4.

 

[quietbruinfan]

Conroy won’t risk any of it unless it’s a guaranteed extension in place maybe if both teams could get agreements Hanifin (4.95mil) or Lindholm (4.85mil) for DeBrusk (4mil) base of a deal cause the money is close this year.
Obviously the guys I mentioned will get paid more next year but what would the trade value difference be to get one cause to get both it’s even more complicated..

I can’t see Oil biting anyways they know what they have in RNH and he is very effective on there PP why gamble on DeBrusk even signed unless say Ullmark is part of a bigger package which then effects dollars in and out so doubt it works.

Day Dream 3 way deal

Edm : Ullmark - (something small from Flames)

Cgy : DeBrusk signed - RNH - (something small from Bruins)

Bos : Hanifin - Lindholm hopefully both signed

I admit I get a bit lost what the cost could get to if they’re both signed but the money works for a base of a deal.

Yes NTC or NMC could effect the whole deal don’t need to be told that was just laying something out there for fun.

It will take work, an added player or pick, and a hot streak from JDB, but I think it's possible for one of the Flames. An extension is assumed.

 

[Skelen]

4th times a charm?

Zacha 2.0?? Maybe his countymen can spark something in him but I don't know if we can fit him in. I like the potential of the player

 

[The National]

Zacha 2.0?? Maybe his countymen can spark something in him but I don't know if we can fit him in. I like the potential of the player

Seems like a good Blackhawks project

 

[Sheppy]

Give me Jake Middleton, please.

 

[DKH]

I was going to get the Jimmy Paige poster with the double neck guitar at A&H in Seekonk. But then the Cheryl Tiegs in the pale pink bikini poster caught my eye and "Stairway to Heaven" meant something completely different. Jimmy who?

I was more into Marcia Brady till she took that football to the face and her nose looked like Karl Malden

 

[UncleRico]

Can we agree to leave out the COVID years? If you're actually trying to determine what Debrusk contributes it feels like including those seasons skews the numbers (this would be true for most players fwiw).

If you ignore the 19/20 and 20/21 seasons he averages 47 points. That's a better representation of his offensive value.

With that said, here's a comp for Jake: Zach Hyman was basically a ~37 point guy with Toronto. He'd never scored more than 21 goals or 41 points in a season. Edmonton signed him long-term for $5.5m and now he's a point-per-game+ guy in his early 30s. What they have in common is that both guys in their 20s were inconsistent offensive players, with a sound 2-way game and the ability to produce with elite players.

Looking to the future with Jake, could he find a permanent spot on Pastrnak's line as Marchand ages & declines over the next few years? I don't see why not (other than Monty being unable to leave any 1 line together for more than 3 periods).

So the question with Jake, is if you assume his floor is 35-45 point guy who is good defensively and gets strong analytic results what's a fair number? $5.5 seems like market value to me based on that Hyman comp (and probably others). You could probably make a case for $6m given cap-flation, etc. I don't think it's a huge stretch. He almost certainly won't be worse than he is now, but with the right linemates you're looking at a potential 50+ points, 30+ goal guy (maybe even more ala Hyman).

I pro rated the covid seasons so it wouldn’t skew the numbers. Those are his numbers based on if every year he played was an 82 game season.

67 gp / 20g/ 19 assists / 39 points


Also yes every players stats would be significantly better if you just completely ignore their bad seasons. We just can’t ignore those especially when he’s in the midst of another.

 

[Patdud]

I admit I get a bit lost what the cost could get to if they’re both signed but the money works for a base of a deal.

The only thing lost with RNH to bruins proposals is a sense of reality

 

[UncleRico]

Also why are we assuming debrusks floor is 35 points? The bruins played 56 games in 2020-2021 and he had 14 points. That’s approx a 20 point season if that was a full 82 game schedule.

 

[GordonHowe]

https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/philadelphia-flyers/features/trading-sean-walker-and-nick-seeler-together-creates-more-problems-for-the-flyers-than-it-solves

 

[BergyWho37]

Give me Jake Middleton, please.

Isn’t this basically a Forbort wash tho ? Younger a bit tougher and blocks shots pretty good but you do realize Forbort almost out hit him playing 25 games less last year..
Nothing against him but we scream for things myself included and often we have something similar and we think the grass is greener on the other side.
So I guess I’m asking what sticks out too you so much that he’ll really make that much of a difference ?

You had me with Zadorov cause players would actually need to watch where he was cause of the green light factor.

If it’s the hit factor I’ll ask you would you pay Ristolainen (5.1mil x4yr) to play 3rd pairing cause if memory serves me right he hits everything and he’s RD assuming we’d trade money out like Gryz and ride Lohrei or something along that lines..

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

Also why are we assuming debrusks floor is 35 points? The bruins played 56 games in 2020-2021 and he had 14 points. That’s approx a 20 point season if that was a full 82 game schedule.

People want to excuse that season. It’s an outlier. Shouldn’t count. I say that because as a DeBrusk fan, I want to discount it too.

But you’re right. It should be factored in. Because if that’s the result when things aren’t going right for him, then who is to say that he won’t hit those lows again? Maybe this time it won’t be a result of a pandemic. Maybe it’s something else in his personal life. That’s his floor.

Trying to figure out what to reasonably expect from him from a numbers standpoint is near impossible. I think your numbers are fair, but light. I also think projecting to 82 games/season and omitting bad stretches is entirely unfair but probably a little closer to accurate.

Then we have this season and he doesn’t appear to be loafing, but he’s also not producing. At over six years into his pro career, he shouldn’t be this much of an enigma to predict.

I honestly don’t know what to do.

 

[DKH]

Give me Greg Campbell and Jake Middleton please - blood donations are down

Is it true Middleton has O Negative

https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/philadelphia-flyers/features/trading-sean-walker-and-nick-seeler-together-creates-more-problems-for-the-flyers-than-it-solves

Lohrei gets us Seeler

Let’s go Donny !!!!!

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

People want to excuse that season. It’s an outlier. Shouldn’t count. I say that because as a DeBrusk fan, I want to discount it too.

But you’re right. It should be factored in. Because if that’s the result when things aren’t going right for him, then who is to say that he won’t hit those lows again? Maybe this time it won’t be a result of a pandemic. Maybe it’s something else in his personal life. That’s his floor.

Trying to figure out what to reasonably expect from him from a numbers standpoint is near impossible. I think your numbers are fair, but light. I also think projecting to 82 games/season and omitting bad stretches is entirely unfair but probably a little closer to accurate.

Then we have this season and he doesn’t appear to be loafing, but he’s also not producing. At over six years into his pro career, he shouldn’t be this much of an enigma to predict.

I honestly don’t know what to do.

He’s shooting 7% this year. 12.5% career, 14.1% last year and 13.6% the year before. Shooting percentages have a way of normalizing over larger sample sizes. At his career average he’d have 3 more goals.