Boston Bruins 2023-24 Roster and Salary Cap Discussion VI

[DKH]

4th times a charm?

Can he fight ?

 

[4ORRBRUIN]

Can he fight ?

No and he can't play hockey either

 

[Absurdity]

X/Zacha - Zacha/X - Pastrnak
Marchand - Coyle - Frederic

Until the Bruins figure out who player X is, DeBrusk can't be moved.

What is the Bruins fans general opinion?

If I am going off of what St. Louis fans have been saying, I stay far away. He apparently no-showed last night after being in the dog house and given opportunites. That's not gonna cut it on the Bruins.

 

[wintersej]

He’s shooting 7% this year. 12.5% career, 14.1% last year and 13.6% the year before. Shooting percentages have a way of normalizing over larger sample sizes. At his career average he’d have 3 more goals.

What is harder to figure in is if he is getting worse shots or has just been unlucky.

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

He’s shooting 7% this year. 12.5% career, 14.1% last year and 13.6% the year before. Shooting percentages have a way of normalizing over larger sample sizes. At his career average he’d have 3 more goals.

His second year in the league he scored at a 30 goal pace. His last two seasons, he’s scored at a 30 goal pace.

I’m wondering what your expectations are for him this season.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

His second year in the league he scored at a 30 goal pace. His last two seasons, he’s scored at a 30 goal pace.

I’m wondering what your expectations are for him this season.

Well, I think it would help if he actually had a consistent set of linemates but that doesn’t seem like its in the cards. He’s playing hard every game and the right way - no fly bys and off to a change like he did during his funk.

Get back on a 20-25 goal pace from here in and I think most would be happy. Without PP1 time that’s not very common in the NHL.

 

[Sheppy]

Isn’t this basically a Forbort wash tho ? Younger a bit tougher and blocks shots pretty good but you do realize Forbort almost out hit him playing 25 games less last year..
Nothing against him but we scream for things myself included and often we have something similar and we think the grass is greener on the other side.
So I guess I’m asking what sticks out too you so much that he’ll really make that much of a difference ?

You had me with Zadorov cause players would actually need to watch where he was cause of the green light factor.

If it’s the hit factor I’ll ask you would you pay Ristolainen (5.1mil x4yr) to play 3rd pairing cause if memory serves me right he hits everything and he’s RD assuming we’d trade money out like Gryz and ride Lohrei or something along that lines..

Middleton is a significantly better player than Forbort.

 

[bruinshoper]

There is a certain % of Bruins fandom (diminishing as it may be) that enjoys having a legitimate tough guy on the team.

Only speaking for myself, but, IMO 70-80% of players in the league have legitimate deficiencies in their game.

Given that, why is it that tough guys are the only ones who seem to be lamented by so many?

I like Steen, I like Lauko, but what do they have? 4 points between them?

Pat Maroon, who reportedly doesn’t skate as well as my 75 year old mother and according to some here should have voluntarily retired 3 years ago because of his abject lack of any discernible usefulness as a hockey player, has 11 himself.

Would this team be better off with Maroon instead of either of those guys?

Who knows?

But the fact remains that they would be tougher and probably more entertaining and edgy, for lack of a better word.

Don‘t want this to turn into the usual toughness debate.

My only point is that teams need a mix of players and TBH, IMO 40-50% of the league is interchangeable and not difference makers.

Your overall point is well taken. I agree with the concept of infusing a toughness factor, particularly when the difference isn points production is probably negligible,,,, BUT … the salary cap plays a pretty big role. What are Steen/Laukos contracts when compared to a player like Maroon?

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

Well, I think it would help if he actually had a consistent set of linemates but that doesn’t seem like its in the cards. He’s playing hard every game and the right way - no fly bys and off to a change like he did during his funk.

Get back on a 20-25 goal pace from here in and I think most would be happy. Without PP1 time that’s not very common in the NHL.

That would put him at close to 20 goals for the season.

Is that what you expect from him? I hope for it, but I’m not sure I expect it. And what do you think that would mean for a contract extension?

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

There is a certain % of Bruins fandom (diminishing as it may be) that enjoys having a legitimate tough guy on the team.

Only speaking for myself, but, IMO 70-80% of players in the league have legitimate deficiencies in their game.

Given that, why is it that tough guys are the only ones who seem to be lamented by so many?

I like Steen, I like Lauko, but what do they have? 4 points between them?

Pat Maroon, who reportedly doesn’t skate as well as my 75 year old mother and according to some here should have voluntarily retired 3 years ago because of his abject lack of any discernible usefulness as a hockey player, has 11 himself.

Would this team be better off with Maroon instead of either of those guys?

Who knows?

But the fact remains that they would be tougher and probably more entertaining and edgy, for lack of a better word.

Don‘t want this to turn into the usual toughness debate.

My only point is that teams need a mix of players and TBH, IMO 40-50% of the league is interchangeable and not difference makers.

Good post, sarge

 

[GordonHowe]

His primary goal is to make this team better every game. I do not agree with you. Jake debrusk will not be moved. He isn’t on the trade block imo. I guess time will tell

Again, I like Jake but the bottom line is that he's here to score.

If Debrusk is unable to do so with relative consistency, are the Bruins really going to sign him to a long-term deal @ 6 mill per?

I don't think so.

Too much risk.

What if offensive inconsistency persists and becomes a pattern?

I don't know what Jake's value will be at the deadline, but Sweeney will listen. The problem is that DeBrusk is not scoring in a contract year, his stock is therefore falling, and the Bruins are not simply going to give him away.

It's rather the quandary.

All I can say is that I hope things work out for all involved.

 

[sarge88]

Your overall point is well taken. I agree with the concept of infusing a toughness factor, particularly when the difference isn points production is probably negligible,,,, BUT … the salary cap plays a pretty big role. What are Steen/Laukos contracts when compared to a player like Maroon?

I get it. You definitely have to be smart about where your money goes.

I think that what a lot of people struggle with is accepting the defficiencies of a player whose primary attribute is toughness, hitting, intimidation and justifying their place in the lineup, when they do so with players who are much less tough.

Maybe, it’s really an issue with them accepting toughness, hitting, intimidation as a legit aspect of the game in the first place.

For illustrative purposes…it seems like more fans today would rather have a player who is a 3 offensively, a 6 defensively and 2 in regard to toughness than they would a player who is a 3 offensively, a 4 defensively and a 7 in regard to toughness.

My contention is that that difference in toughness far outweighs the difference defensively.

Now you can’t have a team full of the latter, but neither can you have a team full of the former.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

That would put him at close to 20 goals for the season.

Is that what you expect from him? I hope for it, but I’m not sure I expect it. And what do you think that would mean for a contract extension?

Well the totals don’t really matter now - can’t change the past. Asking for him to get to 30 goals for the season would be over a 40 goal pace from here on which seems out of reach obviously. Luckily we have a GM that won’t overreact to a small sample size of games - either way. It’s not like if he gets two goals next game and then 1 on the weekend his contract magically lifts by $750k a year. Doesn’t work like that. There’s a larger body of work to evaluate thankfully.

 

[UncleRico]

Well the totals don’t really matter now - can’t change the past. Asking for him to get to 30 goals for the season would be over a 40 goal pace from here on which seems out of reach obviously. Luckily we have a GM that won’t overreact to a small sample size of games - either way. It’s not like if he gets two goals next game and then 1 on the weekend his contract magically lifts by $750k a year. Doesn’t work like that. There’s a larger body of work to evaluate thankfully.

There is a bigger sample and that body of work is a player who on average misses over 15% of a season(67 games played) and 39 points a season.

Excluding this years numbers. Those stats were reflective of numbers coming into the year.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

There is a bigger sample and that body of work is a player who on average misses over 15% of a season(67 games played) and 39 points a season.

I know you want to waive him Rico. We get that you don’t like the player at all. You’ve made this point like a thousand times.

 

[UncleRico]

I know you want to waive him Rico. We get that you don’t like the player at all. You’ve made this point like a thousand times.

No I said I’d pay him $5m max never said waive. I’m curious what you would pay him as someone who said this past offseason you’d pay him $7m+ AAV very recently.

How much is an often injured 39 point player with above average defense worth.

Also just trying to keep up with your forbort rambling but that’s impossible.

 

[GordonHowe]

Be sure to remind Sweeney about that

Ogie returns!

 

[GordonHowe]

Can we agree to leave out the COVID years? If you're actually trying to determine what Debrusk contributes it feels like including those seasons skews the numbers (this would be true for most players fwiw).

If you ignore the 19/20 and 20/21 seasons he averages 47 points. That's a better representation of his offensive value.

With that said, here's a comp for Jake: Zach Hyman was basically a ~37 point guy with Toronto. He'd never scored more than 21 goals or 41 points in a season. Edmonton signed him long-term for $5.5m and now he's a point-per-game+ guy in his early 30s. What they have in common is that both guys in their 20s were inconsistent offensive players, with a sound 2-way game and the ability to produce with elite players.

Looking to the future with Jake, could he find a permanent spot on Pastrnak's line as Marchand ages & declines over the next few years? I don't see why not (other than Monty being unable to leave any 1 line together for more than 3 periods).

So the question with Jake, is if you assume his floor is 35-45 point guy who is good defensively and gets strong analytic results what's a fair number? $5.5 seems like market value to me based on that Hyman comp (and probably others). You could probably make a case for $6m given cap-flation, etc. I don't think it's a huge stretch. He almost certainly won't be worse than he is now, but with the right linemates you're looking at a potential 50+ points, 30+ goal guy (maybe even more ala Hyman).

I would sign Jake to 5.2-5.5. I know it won't happen, but I'd do that over two or three years. Given the consistency issue, I would not sign him to a long-term deal.

If the B's could somehow swing that, I'd like Jake to stay. Otherwise, I believe he will be traded. For what, I don't know.

 

[GordonHowe]

People want to excuse that season. It’s an outlier. Shouldn’t count. I say that because as a DeBrusk fan, I want to discount it too.

But you’re right. It should be factored in. Because if that’s the result when things aren’t going right for him, then who is to say that he won’t hit those lows again? Maybe this time it won’t be a result of a pandemic. Maybe it’s something else in his personal life. That’s his floor.

Trying to figure out what to reasonably expect from him from a numbers standpoint is near impossible. I think your numbers are fair, but light. I also think projecting to 82 games/season and omitting bad stretches is entirely unfair but probably a little closer to accurate.

Then we have this season and he doesn’t appear to be loafing, but he’s also not producing. At over six years into his pro career, he shouldn’t be this much of an enigma to predict.

I honestly don’t know what to do.

Neither do I. Good post.

 

[Guelph Bruin]

I would sign Jake to 5.2-5.5. I know it won't happen, but I'd do that over two or three years. Given the consistency issue, I would not sign him to a long-term deal.

If the B's could somehow swing that, I'd like Jake to stay. Otherwise, I believe he will be traded. For what, I don't know.

I'd love it but I think Jake's Dad and his agent will be looking for $7M x4 or 5 years on the open market ...lots of stupid signings in free agency ... I'm on the fence at Jake at that # and term ... I'd likely do it but make sure he has no trade protection so he can be moved down the road if need be

 

[bme44]

I'd love it but I think Jake's Dad and his agent will be looking for $7M x4 or 5 years on the open market ...lots of stupid signings in free agency ... I'm on the fence at Jake at that # and term ... I'd likely do it but make sure he has no trade protection so he can be moved down the road if need be

I would like to see four years at 6 or 6.5 mil for Jake not sure if this is realistic or not ?

 

[GordonHowe]

I'd love it but I think Jake's Dad and his agent will be looking for $7M x4 or 5 years on the open market ...lots of stupid signings in free agency ... I'm on the fence at Jake at that # and term ... I'd likely do it but make sure he has no trade protection so he can be moved down the road if need be

Jake could probably make seven in free agency.

The Bruins are not going to give him that, and I don't believe they should.

I almost feel they'll trade him whether the scoring returns this season or not. At that number, relatively reliable scoring should be a given. In this case, unfortunately, it's not. Unless DeBrusk decides to adjust his ask downward and accept a three- or four-year deal, I would not sign him.

Again, too much risk.

 

[Guelph Bruin]

I would like to see four years at 6 or 6.5 mil for Jake not sure if this is realistic or not ?

One of the issues I have with paying Jake is it's setting dangerous president for Frederic's next contract negotiation .. I do not think 20 goal scorers deserve that type of money.

 

[jgatie]

I'd love it but I think Jake's Dad and his agent will be looking for $7M x4 or 5 years on the open market ...lots of stupid signings in free agency ... I'm on the fence at Jake at that # and term ... I'd likely do it but make sure he has no trade protection so he can be moved down the road if need be

What does his Dad have to do with anything? There's has never been one inkling of evidence that Louie DeBrusk is a father who sticks his nose in his son's business, on the ice or off. Not one scintilla of proof, though the people who like to spread that as fact are numerous. How this reputation smear on an innocent guy has been allowed to fester here is a sad statement on this board.

 

[Guelph Bruin]

What does his Dad have to do with anything? There's has never been one inkling of evidence that Louie DeBrusk is a father who sticks his nose in his son's business, on the ice or off. Not one scintilla of proof, though the people who like to spread that as fact are numerous. How this reputation smear on an innocent guy has been allowed to fester here is a sad statement on this board.

Really? seems common sense to me, they're tight ..thick as thieves family, and Louie has experience ..I'm certain Jake solicits his advice and I'm certain Louie would tell him not to marry the first girl he met ..lots of fish in the sea