Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Hodge]

its also possible he becomes a dominant NHL player in a few years. Askarov has the same potential and risk as Musty at the moment. Neither are proven. Why give up on potential for one while swapping for the other? It doesn’t make sense.

Because we have nothing in the goalie pipeline and like four other forward prospects on a similar level to Musty.

 

[Star Platinum]

I'm concerned about what his value will be a year from now if he goes back to Sudbury and his production regresses which is very possible.

Of course, there's no realistic basis to have this worry, but have at it

 

[DG93]

Because we have nothing in the goalie pipeline and like four other forward prospects on a similar level to Musty.

Like who? I don't think Chernyshov/Bystedt/Edstrom/Haltunnen are the same level, certainly not Haltunnen

 

[The Nemesis]

Obviously, but Matty Beniers getting a $50M contract with 100 career points feels insane to me. Like I totally get it from Seattle's perspective, you have to lock your 1C down as soon as you can, that's not the player to nickel and dime, it just feels crazy to get that much money with effectively one good season to your name.

This feels a lot like a market over-correction to all those years of people screaming "big contracts should be bets on market value for future contributions rather than rewards for past performance!" to dissuade GMs from giving out 7 and 8 year deals to guys on the wrong side of 30. But now we've swung so hard the other way that it's wiping out the post-ELC/pre-prime bridge deal entirely and just dumping the money truck into the lap of guys who are <24 and at least pretty good on the hope that it won't turn out to be a massive miscalculation when they don't develop as planned.

 

[one2gamble]

Because we have nothing in the goalie pipeline

I still don't think that matters. Average goalies are always available. If you think ask is a sure fire top end starter than sure but if you think he's an average NHL starter I wouldn't give up assets

 

[Hodge]

Like who? I don't think Chernyshov/Bystedt/Edstrom/Haltunnen are the same level, certainly not Haltunnen

At the end of the day they were all recently drafted between 26th and 36th overall. Different types of prospects but roughly similar potential.

Of course, there's no realistic basis to have this worry, but have at it

You're that confident he's going to put up almost 2 points per game again?

 

[Star Platinum]

At the end of the day they were all recently drafted between 26th and 36th overall. Different types of prospects but roughly similar potential.


You're that confident he's going to put up almost 2 points per game again?

My enthusiasm for his chances of becoming a productive NHL player doesn't have a lot to do with his statline, which is a function of a team that sells out for offense at the expense of defense. I expect like most young players who repeat a league that he'll be a better player the second time around.

Musty will have to jump a level where the competition is better to really push him to be a more complete player IMO. We're a year away from getting the answer to that question.

 

[Patty Ice]

Sure, but if they think Askarov is the real deal, then they shouldn't move him, at least right now, for anything less than a standout proposal.

That was Trotz stances as recently as this past draft, then he signed Saros, and now you have the report.

He also made a comment prior that (to paraphrase) "you are ready when you are ready and not when your agent says you are."

So what do you think most likely happened between June and now?

 

[weastern bias]

This feels a lot like a market over-correction to all those years of people screaming "big contracts should be bets on market value for future contributions rather than rewards for past performance!" to dissuade GMs from giving out 7 and 8 year deals to guys on the wrong side of 30. But now we've swung so hard the other way that it's wiping out the post-ELC/pre-prime bridge deal entirely and just dumping the money truck into the lap of guys who are <24 and at least pretty good on the hope that it won't turn out to be a massive miscalculation when they don't develop as planned.

It's the smarter bet, though

In the old bridge system you'd get a player who was coming off an ELC at about age 23, sign them to a 3 year bridge and then a full term 8 year deal that ends when they're in their mid 30s, by which time they are almost definitely no longer worth the money

Now teams are trying to get ahead of it by signing players to 7/8 year deals that will end as they begin their 30s, they take a risk on a higher cap hit early on but if it hits they get a player's true prime years for much cheaper and aren't overcomitted to their declining years at an inflated price

Sometimes you get screwed over like Darnell Nurse, but sometimes you hit a grand slam like Cale Makar, it's better to take the big risk early on

Where teams screw up is when they are already so committed to big money they can't sign a long deal like the Oilers right now with Bouchard, or if they're stupid and give short term term big money deals like the Leafs with Matthews and Marner, the long term deal off the ELC is the smart move to make right now even if it is risky

 

[Hodge]

My enthusiasm for his chances of becoming a productive NHL player doesn't have a lot to do with his statline, which is a function of a team that sells out for offense at the expense of defense. I expect like most young players who repeat a league that he'll be a better player the second time around.

Musty will have to jump a level where the competition is better to really push him to be a more complete player IMO. We're a year away from getting the answer to that question.

Sure but his trade value will likely decline if the production falls off. Especially since there isn't much else to his game.

 

[sharks_dynasty]

Sure but his trade value will likely decline if the production falls off. Especially since there isn't much else to his game.

I’m happy trading Bysted or Edstrom, but not Musty who I believe has higher upside and could be a difference maker for the Sharks in the future. No issues with trying to get Askarov, just not for certain players. Askarov could become a star, or he could bust. Now if we were trading for Dobson, a proven player, I’d say go for it. Trade Musty all day long.

 

[STL Shark]

I don't know how else to say it, but if Nashville, with its track record of developing goaltending talent, doesn't want to hold on to Askarov, then it seems unlikely that he's going to be a top-tier goaltender.

At this point in the rebuild, there should be no rush from the Sharks; they can afford to wait for the best opportunity while continuing to accumulate assets.

I also get worried when teams get a hyped goaltending prospect; he gets put on a pedastal and penned in as the GOTF, and for 3-5 years the team ignores the other opportunities.

Like I said in a prior discussion, why are we even factoring in a prior management groups "history" when the GM that is there now had no part of that history? I get the goaltending development coach is there, but to assume that Trotz has the same value on goaltending or the same lens to view it as the old management is unwise.

Trotz is clearly in go for it right now mode (see every move that he's made in the 14 or so months since taking the job) and isn't going to risk that on a young goaltender (nor should he whenever he had the spending spree summer he had on older guys and having the 3rd oldest team in the NHL).

 

[Hodge]

I’m happy trading Bysted or Edstrom, but not Musty who I believe has higher upside and could be a difference maker for the Sharks in the future. No issues with trying to get Askarov, just not for certain players. Askarov could become a star, or he could bust. Now if we were trading for Dobson, a proven player, I’d say go for it. Trade Musty all day long.

I'm more hesitant to move the center prospects. While it's impossible to know for sure, I think Musty's trade value has risen a great deal above his 26th overall pick status. Trading him for Askarov, who the Preds were (perhaps delusionally) trying to trade for Montreal's 5th overall pick a year ago, would be like realizing gains on a stock you think is overvalued.

 

[one2gamble]

I'm more hesitant to move the center prospects. While it's impossible to know for sure, I think Musty's trade value has risen a great deal above his 26th overall pick status. Trading him for Askarov, who the Preds were (perhaps delusionally) trying to trade for Montreal's 5th overall pick a year ago, would be like realizing gains on a stock you think is overvalued.

no, it would be like shifting from one high risk stock in one industry to a different high risk stock in another.

 

[STL Shark]

This feels a lot like a market over-correction to all those years of people screaming "big contracts should be bets on market value for future contributions rather than rewards for past performance!" to dissuade GMs from giving out 7 and 8 year deals to guys on the wrong side of 30. But now we've swung so hard the other way that it's wiping out the post-ELC/pre-prime bridge deal entirely and just dumping the money truck into the lap of guys who are <24 and at least pretty good on the hope that it won't turn out to be a massive miscalculation when they don't develop as planned.

Given we're past the COVID nonsense and its effects on the cap, this is the wise way to do things when you're a team that is rebuilding. As caps go up every year (which they will), you get the benefit of having said player locked in with each passing year. Similarly, if you botch it then the hurt lessens each year.

If you're a contending team, you probably still go the bridge route (like Bouchard/Edmonton) and try and keep pushing the cap issues down the line more and more because you likely are tighter to the cap with other good players getting paid handsomely.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'm in no rush to acquire a goalie with the way our blue line is looking. Askarov isn't going to be Shesterkin. Unless he's coming to us in a deal that looks like Bordeleau and someone like Lund or Svoboda, I'm okay with passing.

 

[Le Rosbeef]

I'm in no rush to acquire a goalie with the way our blue line is looking. Askarov isn't going to be Shesterkin. Unless he's coming to us in a deal that looks like Bordeleau and someone like Lund or Svoboda, I'm okay with passing.

Agree with everything here, although to me, he looks like a Grade A thoroughbred goaltending prospect, the likes of which we've never had before.

I wouldn't rush to acquire him, but at the same time, I wouldn't be upset if we did either. Young offense and star young goalie has definite appeal.

 

[STL Shark]

I'm in no rush to acquire a goalie with the way our blue line is looking. Askarov isn't going to be Shesterkin. Unless he's coming to us in a deal that looks like Bordeleau and someone like Lund or Svoboda, I'm okay with passing.

Only issue with that line of thinking is that if you're not going to go get a high upside goalie now, when is that time? Let's say that we realistically want someone for the 2026-27 season where we hope to be close to or in the playoffs as Celebrini/Smith ELCs end (could even use 2028-29).

If we want a goalie situation that isn't just rollout a couple of tandem guys and hope for the best each year, our guy basically has to already be in the organization to be the starter on any of those teams simply due to the time it takes goalies to develop.

Not saying we would or should, but if we drafted the equivalent of Wallstedt or Askarov this coming draft in the 1st round, we wouldn't see that guy as our NHL starter until maybe 2031-32 in a pretty "best case scenario" situation (2 years junior, 2-3 AHL, 1-2 NHL backup/tandem, then starter). Think it's a good 6 years for most to be that guy.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I think it's definitely fair to question why Nashville has been so keen to move Askarov, given their historical success at developing goaltenders. If this was the first time we were hearing Askarov rumors (after the Saros extension) then I would just chalk it up to wanting to find value in an elite goaltending prospect because they already have a prime-aged elite starting goaltender locked down long-term. But Trotz has been trying to move Askarov for over a year now, even before they had Saros locked down. There are a bunch of factors and any combination of them could be true:

1. They don't think Askarov has value as a backup given how highly he was drafted and how high his potential. It would be a wasted asset and it makes sense to trade him to shore up other positions given that Saros is locked in for their whole contending window (and beyond).

2. They don't think Askarov is very good or they know something that will limit his NHL outcome that we don't. Maybe it's a fundamentals problem that they can't get him to fix, maybe it's a persistent attitude problem. Maybe they don't like that he's a fiery guy instead of the classic cool calm and collected netminder. Whatever the case, they don't value him.

3. Trotz doesn't care for prospects that he has not personally drafted. We've seen Grier getting rid of a lot of DW/Jr.'s guys seemingly mostly because they aren't his guys and only partially because they aren't very good.

4. Nashville is attempting to be a contender (I don't think they are, but that's just my opinion) and Askarov is their top prospect; it makes sense that they would dangle him for immediate help, as the Sharks did every year we contended. This idea is hurt some by the fact that Trotz was trying to move Askarov+15 for 5 at the 2023 draft in the hopes of getting Will Smith, who is not a "win-now" asset, but I still think this factor plays a part in the situation.

I personally think it's a combo of all four of these factors, which is why I wouldn't be willing to give up anything more than one of Bystedt/Edstrom and a non-1st round pick. But to what degree #2 is true is the deciding factor for how smart it would be to trade for him.

 

[TheBeard]

I see some here are trying to model ourselves after the New Jersey Devils and Toronto Maple Leafs of the world where we stockpile top tier forward talent but rely on third tier goaltending. Makes sense why so many of our goalies have been with all three organizations.

think it's definitely fair to question why Nashville has been so keen to move Askarov,

I believe it was Askarov that wanted out.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I see some here are trying to model ourselves after the New Jersey Devils and Toronto Maple Leafs of the world where we stockpile top tier forward talent but rely on third tier goaltending. Makes sense why so many of our goalies have been with all three organizations.


I believe it was Askarov that wanted out.

Askarov has now officially asked for a trade, But Trotz has been trying to move Askarov since June 2023.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Only issue with that line of thinking is that if you're not going to go get a high upside goalie now, when is that time? Let's say that we realistically want someone for the 2026-27 season where we hope to be close to or in the playoffs as Celebrini/Smith ELCs end (could even use 2028-29).

If we want a goalie situation that isn't just rollout a couple of tandem guys and hope for the best each year, our guy basically has to already be in the organization to be the starter on any of those teams simply due to the time it takes goalies to develop.

Not saying we would or should, but if we drafted the equivalent of Wallstedt or Askarov this coming draft in the 1st round, we wouldn't see that guy as our NHL starter until maybe 2031-32 in a pretty "best case scenario" situation (2 years junior, 2-3 AHL, 1-2 NHL backup/tandem, then starter). Think it's a good 6 years for most to be that guy.

I accept that there's issues with being cheap in net and I'm open to taking calculated shots in net where possible but I value building and investing in skaters much more. I would prefer to build a solid group of nine forwards, six defenseman, and have two mediocre goalies over investing good cap into a definitive starter that likely creates a hole somewhere up front. I'm still against spending 1st round picks on goalies. I think with where this team is currently at, they need to focus on building their blue line before doing anything more than what they have been which is spending mid or late round picks on goalies.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I see some here are trying to model ourselves after the New Jersey Devils and Toronto Maple Leafs of the world where we stockpile top tier forward talent but rely on third tier goaltending. Makes sense why so many of our goalies have been with all three organizations.


I believe it was Askarov that wanted out.

At this stage, we don't even have a similar stockpile of top tier forwards that those teams have so it doesn't make much sense to worry about. Moving forward, our biggest concern isn't goaltending. It's the blue line and team defense. Until we have a legitimate anchor for the blue line, this team isn't going anywhere.

 

[Hatrick Marleau]

I’d rather try to give Askarov an offer sheet next offseason unless they can get him for a 2nd + a mid prospect this year.

 

[Patty Ice]

Askarov has now officially asked for a trade, But Trotz has been trying to move Askarov since June 2023.

But he wasn't trying to move him at this year's draft.

Predators' Barry Trotz unlikely to trade goaltenders Juuse Saros or Yaroslav Askarov at NHL Draft

In an exclusive interview with the Tennessean, Trotz said trading one of the two goalies is "very unlikely" as the team heads into the weekend.

"I would say the chances are nil, almost," Trotz said.