Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[TheBeard]

1) I literally hit on the point about drafting better than 11th and laid out the difference between Korchinski and Havelid plus Lund. Still hyperbolic.

2) Probably true, but it's also entirely too soon to know what the variance between Smith and Fantili/Carlson is.

3) The additional 1st rounder is a guy that's already in our system in 2022 in Bystedt. He's taken at the end of the 1st and instead of drafting 34th and 45th, we're drafting in the 60's. Overall, that's a net of literally no consequence.

4) You're the same person that is arguing time after time that the cap is meaningless for us at this juncture and will be for the next 3-4 years because of cap increases and ridding ourselves of most of the big contracts. Can't talk out of both sides of your mouth there and now pretend that it's impactful.

Overall, you're subbing out Havelid, Lund, Muk, and the Pittsburgh 1st in exchange for Korchinski, a 2022 pick in the 60's, and a Pittsburgh 2nd in the mid to late 40's in 2024. You also have cap space that you gain, but you've already established that is not an issue so it's not really factoring into the equation.

So I will double down that the idea that it set the franchise back several years is hyperbolic and inaccurate. It was not the correct move, but the impact will be marginal and nothing that should be consequential if Grier is competent.

I would like to add, however, that having Hertl now at 8 for 6 years is probably better than EK at 11.5 for the next 5 or so. Neither is optimal, but without his monster season we're stil stuck with Erik.

 

[Hodge]

1) I literally hit on the point about drafting better than 11th and laid out the difference between Korchinski and Havelid plus Lund. Still hyperbolic.

2) Probably true, but it's also entirely too soon to know what the variance between Smith and Fantili/Carlson is.

3) The additional 1st rounder is a guy that's already in our system in 2022 in Bystedt. He's taken at the end of the 1st and instead of drafting 34th and 45th, we're drafting in the 60's. Overall, that's a net of literally no consequence.

4) You're the same person that is arguing time after time that the cap is meaningless for us at this juncture and will be for the next 3-4 years because of cap increases and ridding ourselves of most of the big contracts. Can't talk out of both sides of your mouth there and now pretend that it's impactful.

Overall, you're subbing out Havelid, Lund, Muk, and the Pittsburgh 1st in exchange for Korchinski, a 2022 pick in the 60's, and a Pittsburgh 2nd in the mid to late 40's in 2024. You also have cap space that you gain, but you've already established that is not an issue so it's not really factoring into the equation.

So I will double down that the idea that it set the franchise back several years is hyperbolic and inaccurate. It was not the correct move, but the impact will be marginal and nothing that should be consequential if Grier is competent.

Having Korchinski or Mintyukov instead of Havelid+Lund would be franchise changing. It's the difference between actually having a legitimate top pairing defense prospect, a huge missing piece, and having two guys who might be depth NHLers someday but probably won't be.

Fantilli had a significantly better NCAA season last year than Smith is having this year. It's not too soon to know that Fantilli is a vastly superior prospect who is overwhelmingly likely to have a better NHL career than Smith.

Sure, the cap is meaningless for the next few seasons, but are you seriously expecting us to still be rebuilding in say 2028? Because Hertl will still be on the books at 8M per for two more years at that point and I'm willing to bet he won't be worth anywhere near that even adjusted for a higher cap. Unlike the other horrible contracts, the Hertl one is on the books long enough that it could conceivably affect our next contention window.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Having Korchinski or Mintyukov instead of Havelid+Lund would be franchise changing. It's the difference between actually having a legitimate top pairing defense prospect, a huge missing piece, and having two guys who might be depth NHLers someday but probably won't be.

Fantilli had a significantly better NCAA season last year than Smith is having this year. It's not too soon to know that Fantilli is a vastly superior prospect who is overwhelmingly likely to have a better NHL career than Smith.

Sure, the cap is meaningless for the next few seasons, but are you seriously expecting us to still be rebuilding in say 2028? Because Hertl will still be on the books at 8M per for two more years at that point and I'm willing to bet he won't be worth anywhere near that even adjusted for a higher cap. Unlike the other horrible contracts, the Hertl one is on the books long enough that it could conceivably affect our next contention window.

I think it's pretty easy to see the Sharks still rebuilding in 2028. Depending on how one views Eklund and Smith and the Sharks lottery results, we could leave the 2024 draft w/o a franchise changing prospect. Us getting Korchinski or Mintyukov is not something I'd view as franchise changing. They're certainly much better prospects but they're not guys I view as ones that are going to be catalysts for dragging their franchises to a competitive level. They will need significant help that they aren't going to get with what our franchise currently has.

 

[CupfortheSharks]

I think blaming Joe Will is silly. An interim GM is not given the authority to completely change the direction of a franchise. When he took over the Sharks were still retooling and trying to compete. He just moved forward as he was directed and that includes signing Hertl. Even after DW left and they were looking for a new GM we were hearing they still planned to compete. Do you really think Joe Will was given the authority to start a complete rebuild by trading Hertl?

 

[fasterthanlight]

I think blaming Joe Will is silly. An interim GM is not given the authority to completely change the direction of a franchise. When he took over the Sharks were still retooling and trying to compete. He just moved forward as he was directed and that includes signing Hertl. Even after DW left and they were looking for a new GM we were hearing they still planned to compete. Do you really think Joe Will was given the authority to start a complete rebuild by trading Hertl?

I don't personally blame joe will; I think you're probably right he had no real authority. But, he was the face of several dubious decisions. So when I post joe will is lame memes, it's a critique of the directionlessness of an organization in denial at the time, making short-term moves that, IMO, extended the rebuild that they were at the precipice of.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Choosing inaction is an action.

 

[CupfortheSharks]

Choosing inaction is an action.

Have you ever filled in for your boss while they were out? I have. You are there to hold the wheel until your boss gets back not turn the ship 180 degrees. If you start making major changes, your manager’s manager is sure to step in. If Hasso wanted Joe Will to take the team a new direction then he wouldn’t have been an interim GM.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Have you ever filled in for your boss while they were out? I have. You are there to hold the wheel until your boss gets back not turn the ship 180 degrees. If you start making major changes, your manager’s manager is sure to step in. If Hasso wanted Joe Will to take the team a new direction then he wouldn’t have been an interim GM.

I’m not suggesting it’s Joe Will’s fault necessarily but rather that it’s Hasso’s for putting Joe Will in charge and DW for not stepping aside before he did. Without the details of DW’s illness, I won’t take it further than that, but the writing was on the wall before then. I might even blame Hasso for not getting rid of him sooner.

Bottom line is that the Sharks were set-back in the 2021-2022 calendar year because of inaction. We basically chunked a vital year in the rebuild.

All this to say that if we had Mintyukov and Carlsson in the system instead of Bystedt/Lund/Havelid and Smith, we’re basically done rebuilding after this year. And that can be directly traced to inaction taken in the 2021-2022 season.

 

[CupfortheSharks]

I’m not suggesting it’s Joe Will’s fault necessarily but rather that it’s Hasso’s for putting Joe Will in charge and DW for not stepping aside before he did. Without the details of DW’s illness, I won’t take it further than that, but the writing was on the wall before then. I might even blame Hasso for not getting rid of him sooner.

Bottom line is that the Sharks were set-back in the 2021-2022 calendar year because of inaction. We basically chunked a vital year in the rebuild.

All this to say that if we had Mintyukov and Carlsson in the system instead of Bystedt/Lund/Havelid and Smith, we’re basically done rebuilding after this year. And that can be directly traced to inaction taken in the 2021-2022 season.

It would have been even better if we decided to rebuild instead of trading for Karlsson.

 

[hohosaregood]

They took too long to get Grier into the office. If the hiring didn't take like 6 months, and he got in even a week earlier, he could've made the decision whether or not to re-sign Hertl.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

They took too long to get Grier into the office. If the hiring didn't take like 6 months, and he got in even a week earlier, he could've made the decision whether or not to re-sign Hertl.

Yep and we most likely would've finished lower in 2022 and drafted someone in that top-10, plus whatever assets we got in a Hertl trade.

We all knew the sharks rebuild would be ugly and long, but at least we're fully committed to it now. I'm happy with starting with Eklund and Smith up top, but there's a lot of work to be done still.

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

I think it's pretty easy to see the Sharks still rebuilding in 2028. Depending on how one views Eklund and Smith and the Sharks lottery results, we could leave the 2024 draft w/o a franchise changing prospect. Us getting Korchinski or Mintyukov is not something I'd view as franchise changing. They're certainly much better prospects but they're not guys I view as ones that are going to be catalysts for dragging their franchises to a competitive level. They will need significant help that they aren't going to get with what our franchise currently has.

It really is nuts that if they don't get Celebrini this year (and definitely if they drop to 3 or lower) the best thing they can do for the future might be to re-rebuild. I think very highly of Eklund but I see him being a great complimentary top 6er. If Couture/Hertl move in the next few seasons, maybe you leave Smith at BC, do you move Eklund too eventually? I think time will also prove Grier should look for a Gauthier type deal with Smith.

 

[Barrie22]

Have you ever filled in for your boss while they were out? I have. You are there to hold the wheel until your boss gets back not turn the ship 180 degrees. If you start making major changes, your manager’s manager is sure to step in. If Hasso wanted Joe Will to take the team a new direction then he wouldn’t have been an interim GM.

And you really should not be making decisions that could affect the new bosses job for when they are hired and most likely that person's entire time with the company. Which he did by making sure whoever was hired was forced to keep Hertl for most likely way passed there own expire date with the club.

 

[LilLeeroy]

And you really should not be making decisions that could affect the new bosses job for when they are hired and most likely that person's entire time with the company. Which he did by making sure whoever was hired was forced to keep Hertl for most likely way passed there own expire date with the club.

Seriously, I never got why people assign none of the blame for those Joe Will decisions to Doug Wilson. Do people really think for major decisions he wasn't involved even while he was "recuperating"?

 

[Barrie22]

Seriously, I never got why people assign none of the blame for those Joe Will decisions to Doug Wilson. Do people really think for major decisions he wasn't involved even while he was "recuperating"?

Because people are smart enough to realize it was a way to fire him, without making him look bad.

 

[one2gamble]

I do think there is such a thing is tearing it to far down

 

[tiburon12]

I do think there is such a thing is tearing it to far down

Hello, have you met the Buffalo Sabres?

 

[TheBeard]

The trade was fine. It was the extension that killed us.

 

[Gecklund]

Having Korchinski or Mintyukov instead of Havelid+Lund would be franchise changing. It's the difference between actually having a legitimate top pairing defense prospect, a huge missing piece, and having two guys who might be depth NHLers someday but probably won't be.

Fantilli had a significantly better NCAA season last year than Smith is having this year. It's not too soon to know that Fantilli is a vastly superior prospect who is overwhelmingly likely to have a better NHL career than Smith.

Sure, the cap is meaningless for the next few seasons, but are you seriously expecting us to still be rebuilding in say 2028? Because Hertl will still be on the books at 8M per for two more years at that point and I'm willing to bet he won't be worth anywhere near that even adjusted for a higher cap. Unlike the other horrible contracts, the Hertl one is on the books long enough that it could conceivably affect our next contention window.

Let’s also add in the 2nd he should have gotten for Barabanov that year. Hypothetically we could have still had one of Havelid or Lund too.

Hell let’s throw in the 2nd he should have gotten for Middleton instead of Kahkonen. Could have gotten both and Mintyukov over Bystedt. Or if we really want we probably could have used those picks to move up and had Mintyukov and Bystedt.

And then yes as you said Fantilli over Smith. We are already a close to lock for bottom spot this year but guaranteed one of Celebrini, Lindstrom, Levshunov.

Suddenly our future is

Eklund-Fantilli-Halttunen
Musty-Bystedt-xxx

Mintyukov-xxx
Thrun-Shakir

 

[Pinkfloyd]

It really is nuts that if they don't get Celebrini this year (and definitely if they drop to 3 or lower) the best thing they can do for the future might be to re-rebuild. I think very highly of Eklund but I see him being a great complimentary top 6er. If Couture/Hertl move in the next few seasons, maybe you leave Smith at BC, do you move Eklund too eventually? I think time will also prove Grier should look for a Gauthier type deal with Smith.

The best thing to do if they don't get Celebrini is to stay patient. There is no wheeling and dealing our way out of this. We have to wait until we luck our way into a couple of franchise players. Eklund shouldn't be moved until he's a pending UFA but that shouldn't be until like 2034 because they should sign him to 8 years after his ELC expires. As for Smith, I don't think Smith is going to ghost us and want out. Unless Smith forces Grier's hand, which I really doubt, doing a Gauthier type move is probably not on the table.

 

[LadyStanley]

I think Sharks need to shore up goaltending long term. Is Chrona, Makiniemi or someone else the answer in the organization? Is his present value as trade asset worth more than future value?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I think Sharks need to shore up goaltending long term. Is Chrona, Makiniemi or someone else the answer in the organization? Is his present value as trade asset worth more than future value?

I think the Sharks should still trade him even if all he gets is a 5th round pick. They need all the lotto tickets they can get their hands on. If he wants to return after he hits free agency, bring him back on another two year deal. At least then he's given the chance to compete for a Cup and see what's out there on the free agent market.

 

[Hobocop]

I think Sharks need to shore up goaltending long term. Is Chrona, Makiniemi or someone else the answer in the organization? Is his present value as trade asset worth more than future value?

I'm not actually sure Makiniemi comes back next season (he's a pending RFA). I'm not great with figuring out goalies, but along with the injury from before, he has some poor rebound control, and seems like he has one shot a game he just completely whiffs on.

Chrona's been taking over the #1 goalie job for the Cuda, but I think it's partially because Makiniemi's been spotty.

 

[STL Shark]

They took too long to get Grier into the office. If the hiring didn't take like 6 months, and he got in even a week earlier, he could've made the decision whether or not to re-sign Hertl.

That's also not true. Hertl got re-signed in March. Grier was hired a week before the Draft in the summer. Wilson stepped down formally a month after Hertl was re-signed.

 

[STL Shark]

Let’s also add in the 2nd he should have gotten for Barabanov that year. Hypothetically we could have still had one of Havelid or Lund too.

Hell let’s throw in the 2nd he should have gotten for Middleton instead of Kahkonen. Could have gotten both and Mintyukov over Bystedt. Or if we really want we probably could have used those picks to move up and had Mintyukov and Bystedt.

And then yes as you said Fantilli over Smith. We are already a close to lock for bottom spot this year but guaranteed one of Celebrini, Lindstrom, Levshunov.

Suddenly our future is

Eklund-Fantilli-Halttunen
Musty-Bystedt-xxx

Mintyukov-xxx
Thrun-Shakir

1) There is not a world that exists where Barabanov is fetching a 2nd in 2022. Dude had 72 games of NHL experience as a 27 year old and 38 points to his name. No way in the world he was fetching more than probably a 4th at that point in time. He could have gotten a 2nd last year under Grier after backing up his good play with another good year, but no way in 2022.

2) You're not getting Muk without Hertl as Meier is not putting up 31 goals without Hertl last year before being dealt. Thus, his trade value is lower.

Again, nobody is arguing that re-signing Hertl was the right move, but the idea that it set the franchise back several years is nonsense. Would imply that rather than rebuilding until 2028 as we are on course for now, we're magically competing again in 2026 in this alternate universe (which is blatantly unrealistic and wrong).