Trading Hertl at the 2022 deadline instead of extending him would mean:
- Very likely landing a higher pick than #11 in the 2022 draft and having one of Mintyukov, Savoie or Korchinski in our system right now
- Almost certainly landing a higher pick than #4 in the 2023 draft and having one of Bedard, Carlsson or Fantilli right now instead of Smith
- Last place finish this season on lock, guaranteeing a top 3 pick
- Additional 2022 1st rounder + an extra 2nd and/or equivalent value prospect from trade return
- Not having a player who already isn't worth his cap hit at 30 under contract through age 36
That's what I mean by set the franchise back years. I would gladly take a lesser return on Karlsson and/or Meier if it meant getting all of the above in exchange.
1) I literally hit on the point about drafting better than 11th and laid out the difference between Korchinski and Havelid plus Lund. Still hyperbolic.
2) Probably true, but it's also entirely too soon to know what the variance between Smith and Fantili/Carlson is.
3) The additional 1st rounder is a guy that's already in our system in 2022 in Bystedt. He's taken at the end of the 1st and instead of drafting 34th and 45th, we're drafting in the 60's. Overall, that's a net of literally no consequence.
4) You're the same person that is arguing time after time that the cap is meaningless for us at this juncture and will be for the next 3-4 years because of cap increases and ridding ourselves of most of the big contracts. Can't talk out of both sides of your mouth there and now pretend that it's impactful.
Overall, you're subbing out Havelid, Lund, Muk, and the Pittsburgh 1st in exchange for Korchinski, a 2022 pick in the 60's, and a Pittsburgh 2nd in the mid to late 40's in 2024. You also have cap space that you gain, but you've already established that is not an issue so it's not really factoring into the equation.
So I will double down that the idea that it set the franchise back several years is hyperbolic and inaccurate. It was not the correct move, but the impact will be marginal and nothing that should be consequential if Grier is competent.