Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[timorous me]

1) Walman - head and shoulders above the rest. I think sometimes provides to much space defending rushes allowing free shots and passes.
2) Thompson - two games and both good.
3) Ceci - Started the season strong but has dropped in quality the last 3 or so games not offering much in tying up net front players or disrupting passing lanes. Better than I expected though overall.
4) Thrun - Was awful with Benning, but I like what I've seen with Thompson. Definitely has a lot of room for improvement though.
5) Ferraro - He is as expected. High energy and all effort. Problem is that means he is chasing the puck out of position, getting puck focused and not paying attention to his surroundings. Have also noticed him joining the rush and getting in the way to forwards.
6) Rutta - A slower version of Ferraro. Chasing the puck, including up to the blue line.
7) Benning - Has been extremely poor this season (by his standards too!). Obviously coming back from injury, he is even slower than usual and whilst he can move the puck he is making horrific decisions.

Yeah, I'll admit Thrun has had some issues this year in some ways where we'd have hoped he'd be improved since last year, but the fact that he's been better these last two games with Thompson makes me think Benning was causing him extra problems and making him look worse.

I also have thought since the start that Ferraro and Rutta is a terrible combination, so while it would be a risk to some extent to break up Ceci and Walman, it might be for the best.

Or, you know, kick Rutta out once Mukhamadullin is ready and have him in there with Ferraro on the right side. Not ideal but I see no point of playing Rutta or Benning except occasionally over Mukhamadullin, Thrun, or Thompson. Not only are the younger guys just as good (probably better), but there's at least a chance they're going to have some role to play with this team for several years to come. Rutta and Benning are only here temporarily and for all their veteran guile, they're actively making things harder for others out there.

 

[PattyLafontaine]

Personally, I have ero faith in GMMG when it comes to buulding this team and signing UFAs.

This offseason, he signed toffoli, which was a great signing, but hen threw 10's of million to Wennberg, Kunin, Grundstrom, Dyllandrea, Goodrow etc. This was after several millions to lindbom, sturm, benning, and several others.

I dont know if Grier was trying to lose this year (or last year) and thats why he purposely gave garbage 10s of millions of dollars. However, if he was actually trying to win, he has so spectacularly failed to sign well, that its almost laughable. I HATED the wennberg signing (look back through all the old posts), and its turned out as expected.

Grier has drafted well (I think, though of course until they play in the NHL all the love of musty, cherny, dick etc remains TBD)., and his trades for walman and ceci were solid. Askarov is obviously very promising too. But, to build a winner, you have to add actual talent in the UFA market. I have ZERO trust in grier to do it. I also have Zero trust in his development and medical staff. How many more pointless 2 penalty games does Smith need to have to realize that he was better served starting the AHL?

obviously the celly bad luck hurts, but If grier had spent the 25M this summer on respectable players (10M unspent and approx 15M on Goodie+kunin+wennberg+grund+dyll), we would be a solid team. nearly every game is close. We are 2 or 3 more toffoli-like players from being 4-2-1 instead of 0-5-2. If grier had half a brain and a modicum of skill in idetifying talent, he could have gotten them.

Needless to say, im really pissed, and really disappointed.

My bets arent lookin' too good :-(

p.s.: all this talk of getting a good UFA D is pointless with grier at the helm. He will throw millions to other team's #6/7 guys and more 4th line grinders. What a crap GM when it comes to adding free agent talent...

He intentionally signed players that he could sign to short contracts. No sense in signing big UFAs when you barely have a NHL roster. Despite the Sharks having a top farm system, they are all still prospects.

Grier didn't want to load up on long term cap hits becuase the core isn't even signed through 2027-2028. The Sharks have two contracts on the books for 2027-2028 Toffoli and Hertl's retention.

Teams are built through the draft and the Sharks still need lots of top picks to get to a point where they can fill out the roster. Some of the highly touted prospects aren't going to pan out or even worse some might end up as uninspiring one diminesional players that tease promise and garner second contracts, but under deliver and do not develop further.

The Sharks are going to be bad for the next few years. Celebrini increases the chances of a successful rebuild, but he's still only one guiy. Sharks need someone like Martone or Schaefer in 2025 along with high picks in 2026 and 2027. 2027-2028 is where the Sharks should be ready to be a playoff team that could win a round or two.

 

[weastern bias]

My bets arent lookin' too good :-(

 

[DG93]

So far, ranking defensemen who have played:

1) Walman
2) Ceci
3) Ferraro
4) Thompson
5) Benning
6) Thrun
7) Rutta

Any disagreements? Of course, the major caveat is that Thompson only has two games.

I don't agree. I think Ferraro and Rutta can be competent bottom-pair defensemen if you put either with a puck mover (ie something like Ferraro-Thompson or Mukh/Cagnoni-Rutta 3rd pair) whereas Benning is AHL fodder. Thrun may be in the Ferraro/Rutta category since he has looked better with Thompson. For me, it's 1) Walman 2) Ceci 3) Ferraro 4) Thompson 5) Rutta 6) Thrun 50 layers of shit and then 7) Benning

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I don't agree. I think Ferraro and Rutta can be competent bottom-pair defensemen if you put either with a puck mover (ie something like Ferraro-Thompson or Mukh/Cagnoni-Rutta 3rd pair) whereas Benning is AHL fodder. Thrun may be in the Ferraro/Rutta category since he has looked better with Thompson. For me, it's 1) Walman 2) Ceci 3) Ferraro 4) Thompson 5) Rutta 6) Thrun 50 layers of shit and then 7) Benning

For me, it’s Walman, Thompson, Ceci, Ferraro, Thrun, Rutta, and Benning. Thompson has stepped up his game and should be given more ice while he’s playing well. I like Walman-Ceci as a top pair for now then do Ferraro with Thompson and call up Cagnoni to play with Rutta. If Cagnoni struggles for a few games then you can send him back down and put Thrun back in or Mukhamadullin if he’s ready. If anyone clicks, elevate them in the lineup and make room for them. The quicker young players get experience, the better.

 

[coooldude]

6) Rutta - A slower version of Ferraro. Chasing the puck, including up to the blue line.

While I agree that Rutta has been very bad, and the pairing with Ferraro is shocking, the puck chasing by the D including up above the circles is one clear notable aspect of Warso's DZ system.

It happens multiple times a game - it seems to me that D plays man, F3 (deepest F) typically supports D at first to retrieve pucks and play the center role low in the zone looking for a turnover, then C will take over if the zone time stabilizes and the wings get to the points... This part I'm still a bit fuzzy on. But the wingers are not purely man to man while the D seems to be manning up a lot of the time. All to say that Rutta mostly sucks for taking a bunch of PK penalties and handling and passing pucks like a grenade.

 

[TheBeard]

For me, it’s Walman, Thompson, Ceci, Ferraro, Thrun, Rutta, and Benning. Thompson has stepped up his game and should be given more ice while he’s playing well. I like Walman-Ceci as a top pair for now then do Ferraro with Thompson and call up Cagnoni to play with Rutta. If Cagnoni struggles for a few games then you can send him back down and put Thrun back in or Mukhamadullin if he’s ready. If anyone clicks, elevate them in the lineup and make room for them. The quicker young players get experience, the better.

I think th only way Ruuta/Cags works is if you just keep Jan pinned to our own blue line. Cags turnovers will be spectacular and Ruuta doesn't have the wheels to cover for them.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I think th only way Ruuta/Cags works is if you just keep Jan pinned to our own blue line. Cags turnovers will be spectacular and Ruuta doesn't have the wheels to cover for them.

As long as Cags or Muk start getting the opportunity that Thrun is currently not taking advantage of, I don’t care about the partner. I want to see both those guys get real time this season if we’re showing to be just as awful as last year.

 

[mogambomoroo]

Askarov:

3 games
3 wins
2 SO
0.974% SV
0.67 GAA


Now I understand what a real elite goalie should look like, it's amazing.

 

[Barrie22]

Askarov:

3 games
3 wins
2 SO
0.974% SV
0.67 GAA


Now I understand what a real elite goalie should look like, it's amazing.

Bust he allowed 2 goals in 1 game.

 

[coooldude]

I would normally wait until game 10 to do this kind of thing, but we've had a lot of panic on the boards so I think useful to look at how the Sharks are doing analytically, 7 games in.

Surprisingly -- we are doing quite a bit better than dead last. Stats all from 5v5 from Moneypuck.

1. 13th worst (top of the bottom!) at expected goals for... 9th worst at xGF/60.
2. 7th worst at expected goals against... 5th worst xGA/60.
3. 4th worst at expected goals differential... 5th worst at xGd/60.

So why are we dead last in the standings? It mostly comes down to taking too many penalties. More time at 5v5 and we probably beat one of ANA/CHI/other.

1. We are #1 (worst) in the league at share of penalties (60%) at 5v5. Taking a lot of penalties and more than are being given against us (rightfully or not). We are also tied for #1 in the league at PIM taken WHILE on the PK (aka 3 on 5's)... technically we have 6 PIM and flyers have 7, but obviously that's a 5min major so in reality we are tied for worst.
2. We are #2 in PK goals given. But only 18th worst in xGA/60 at 4v5. Our PK is average, but we are taking lots of penalties.
3. Our PP is 15th best in xGF so middle of pack. But not many PP's. 10th fewest PIM's against us.
4. It's a tiny bit of "puck luck" - PDO is 9th worst, but not a huge factor.
5. Despite the "eye test", we are only 13th worst at DZ giveaways to opponent.
6. We are 5th worst at share of takeaways... so not good at all, but not worst, and actually 12th best at share of giveaways that are in the DZ.

tl;dr take fewer penalties, keep feet moving, get Celebrini back, and we could be a respectable bottom 5 team. In a way, it's good that we're banking all these losses early.

 

[TheBeard]

I would normally wait until game 10 to do this kind of thing, but we've had a lot of panic on the boards so I think useful to look at how the Sharks are doing analytically, 7 games in.

Surprisingly -- we are doing quite a bit better than dead last. Stats all from 5v5 from Moneypuck.

1. 13th worst (top of the bottom!) at expected goals for... 9th worst at xGF/60.
2. 7th worst at expected goals against... 5th worst xGA/60.
3. 4th worst at expected goals differential... 5th worst at xGd/60.

So why are we dead last in the standings? It mostly comes down to taking too many penalties. More time at 5v5 and we probably beat one of ANA/CHI/other.

1. We are #1 (worst) in the league at share of penalties (60%) at 5v5. Taking a lot of penalties and more than are being given against us (rightfully or not). We are also tied for #1 in the league at PIM taken WHILE on the PK (aka 3 on 5's)... technically we have 6 PIM and flyers have 7, but obviously that's a 5min major so in reality we are tied for worst.
2. We are #2 in PK goals given. But only 18th worst in xGA/60 at 4v5. Our PK is average, but we are taking lots of penalties.
3. Our PP is 15th best in xGF so middle of pack. But not many PP's. 10th fewest PIM's against us.
4. It's a tiny bit of "puck luck" - PDO is 9th worst, but not a huge factor.
5. Despite the "eye test", we are only 13th worst at DZ giveaways to opponent.
6. We are 5th worst at share of takeaways... so not good at all, but not worst, and actually 12th best at share of giveaways that are in the DZ.

tl;dr take fewer penalties, keep feet moving, get Celebrini back, and we could be a respectable bottom 5 team. In a way, it's good that we're banking all these losses early.

Maybe get some depth scoring? We only have two 5-on-5 goals from the bottom two lines and no goals from d-men in 7 games.

 

[weastern bias]

Unfortunately, this confirms they are busts

https://x.com/i/web/status/1849493618513310035

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

How has Jack Thompson looked??

Is there potential for him to be Sharks PP quarterback??

 

[Gecklund]

How has Jack Thompson looked??

Is there potential for him to be Sharks PP quarterback??

He’s been good! But no no potential for him to be the PP1 quarterback this season.

 

[Hodge]

Well there goes Shea Theodore. Good call by @Pinkfloyd because I honestly thought there was no chance Vegas would keep him.

 

[hohosaregood]

Dang didn't think my dreams would be shattered this quickly. Was expecting it to fall apart in February at least.

 

[Hinterland]

The player I'm most interested in right now is Mukhamadullin. I think he has the tools to really help the Sharks and he'd be an upgrade over Thrun and Benning at the very least but the question is if the Sharks wanna expose him to that or if they'd rather have him dominate the AHL for one more season, especially after coming back from injury.

 

[Hodge]

The better Granlund plays, the more I want to trade rather than extend him. Both for tanking purposes and to potentially get a late 1st that we can include in a package for a top 4 D.

 

[wickedwitch]

The better Granlund plays, the more I want to trade rather than extend him. Both for tanking purposes and to potentially get a late 1st that we can include in a package for a top 4 D.

Do they really need help with this?

Last gets you the same lottery odds whether you're last by 1 or 20 points.

 

[Hodge]

Do they really need help with this?

Last gets you the same lottery odds whether you're last by 1 or 20 points.

I assume we'll start picking up points on occasion when Celebrini returns and/or if Askarov is ever called up. Chicago and Montreal look like they'll be pretty bad too.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Do they really need help with this?

Last gets you the same lottery odds whether you're last by 1 or 20 points.

They only cleared Chicago by 5 points last year and they'll be a better team as Celebrini gets healthy and him and Smith and other players develop. I'm not saying they need help with it but it is possible. If any team is willing to fork over a 1st round pick for Granlund, the Sharks need to move him. We need futures to invest on the defense.

 

[Friday]

Sharks got Granlund as a cap dump. If MG can identify another Granlund type vet in a dump, he can move Granlund for a 1st (maybe). Then find a way to add a vet or two in a similar situation. I know Granlund is a best case for re-finding his game. If Granlund stays for 2/3 more years I wouldn't be mad either. Just can't see him wanting to play out his last few years in SJ

 

[OrrNumber4]

The player I'm most interested in right now is Mukhamadullin. I think he has the tools to really help the Sharks and he'd be an upgrade over Thrun and Benning at the very least but the question is if the Sharks wanna expose him to that or if they'd rather have him dominate the AHL for one more season, especially after coming back from injury.

I want Mukhamadullin to play in the NHL as soon as possible. Very few defensemen can hit the ground running in the NHL; I expect that in his first season, he'll be adjusting and will be barely NHL-quality. He'll then slowly improve. Eventually...not this year, not next year, not even the year after next year, but eventually, he could be a top-4 defenseman.

 

[vortexy]

Anyone interested in claiming Yamamoto? Could help with our 5v5 scoring on the 3rd or 4th line