Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[weastern bias]

If anything, that Draisaitl contract basically means our window is now until 2035: Celebrini's ELC plus a ~$10Mx8 contract coming off his ELC.

Draisaitl is definitely worth $14M, but there's absolutely no way the Oilers can be serious contenders past this season with $50M tied up in McDavid/Draisaitl/Nurse/Bouchard and no high-end young players ready to perform on ELCs. Their only real hope, now that they lost Broberg and Holloway, is that some idiot GM (hopefully not Grier...) takes Nurse off their hands.

The problem is that it's hard to justify only paying Celebrini $10M per season with that contract already on the books if he's anywhere near as good of a player

With Tavares on the team at $11M Toronto had to pay Marner almost as much as him and Matthews more than him immediately coming off their ELCs because they were as good or better players at that age, they couldn't make an argument to suppress their salaries when they had a comparable talent on the roster making that huge money

If we signed him to $14Mx7Y next summer then in 3 years we'd be at risk of paying 14 for Draisaitl, 13 for Celebrini and 12 for Smith if they both hit, and that's not going to make it sustainable for long term success, we need those two to be around $10M or less as premier players to have a hope to be competitive during their physical prime

 

[Juxtaposer]

The problem is that it's hard to justify only paying Celebrini $10M per season with that contract already on the books if he's anywhere near as good of a player

With Tavares on the team at $11M Toronto had to pay Marner almost as much as him and Matthews more than him immediately coming off their ELCs because they were as good or better players at that age, they couldn't make an argument to suppress their salaries when they had a comparable talent on the roster making that huge money

If we signed him to $14Mx7Y next summer then in 3 years we'd be at risk of paying 14 for Draisaitl, 13 for Celebrini and 12 for Smith if they both hit, and that's not going to make it sustainable for long term success, we need those two to be around $10M or less as premier players to have a hope to be competitive during their physical prime

There's no way in hell Celebrini is getting $14M after his ELC. Draisaitl isn't his comparable, he's ten years older and is only buying out UFA years. Guys like J. Hughes, Stutzle, Fantilli, Carlsson, and to some extent Bedard will be the comparisons. And unless Smith literally puts up a 100 point season there's no way he gets more than like $8M on a second contract (or whatever is equal to today's $8M in three years).

Just because Dubas allowed Marner to use Tavares' contract as leverage doesn't mean that's the norm, it means that Dubas fumbled his young stars.

 

[weastern bias]

There's no way in hell Celebrini is getting $14M after his ELC. Draisaitl isn't his comparable, he's ten years older and is only buying out UFA years. Guys like J. Hughes, Stutzle, Fantilli, Carlsson, and to some extent Bedard will be the comparisons. And unless Smith literally puts up a 100 point season there's no way he gets more than like $8M on a second contract (or whatever is equal to today's $8M in three years).

Just because Dubas allowed Marner to use Tavares' contract as leverage doesn't mean that's the norm, it means that Dubas fumbled his young stars.

I agree that Dubas ruined the cap structure there and is a bad GM but it did set the precedent that it is possible to fight for those deals direct out the gate post-ELC

Auston Matthews 2nd contract only bought 1 UFA year and it was was higher than Tavares' cap hit by over $600K, if Celebrini lights it up in his first three years it's not out of the realm of possibility for him to demand being the highest paid player on the team no matter what the salary structure at the moment entails

 

[Juxtaposer]

I agree that Dubas ruined the cap structure there and is a bad GM but it did set the precedent that it is possible to fight for those deals direct out the gate post-ELC

Auston Matthews 2nd contract only bought 1 UFA year and it was was higher than Tavares' cap hit by over $600K, if Celebrini lights it up in his first three years it's not out of the realm of possibility for him to demand being the highest paid player on the team no matter what the salary structure at the moment entails

Again, why are you using Matthews as a comparable? We don't have a John Tavares on our team.

Jack Hughes signed $8Mx8 coming off his ELC. Tim Stutzle signed $8.35Mx8 coming off his ELC. Celebrini will get a little more due to rising cap (and IMO he's gonna be better) but unless Grier is a raging moron he's not going to accept Matthews/Marner contracts as comparables because, again, we don't have a John Tavares in our cap structure. Celebrini's first non-ELC contract will comfortably make him the highest-paid Shark, no drama.

 

[weastern bias]

Again, why are you using Matthews as a comparable? We don't have a John Tavares on our team.

Jack Hughes signed $8Mx8 coming off his ELC. Tim Stutzle signed $8.35Mx8 coming off his ELC. Celebrini will get a little more due to rising cap (and IMO he's gonna be better) but unless Grier is a raging moron he's not going to accept Matthews/Marner contracts as comparables because, again, we don't have a John Tavares in our cap structure. Celebrini's first non-ELC contract will comfortably make him the highest-paid Shark, no drama.

In this hypothetical Draisaitl is the Tavares corollary

I WANT to follow the Hughes/Stutzle/Beniers model, and we absolutely can do so if we don't add a huge wrinkle to our cap structure, Draisaitl at $14M+ would be that huge wrinkle

 

[one2gamble]

Macklin is definitely getting a 10x8 just to cover the taxes and living expenses in California, no way he doesnt hit double digits if he meets expectations

 

[Juxtaposer]

In this hypothetical Draisaitl is the Tavares corollary

I WANT to follow the Hughes/Stutzle/Beniers model, and we absolutely can do so if we don't add a huge wrinkle to our cap structure, Draisaitl at $14M+ would be that huge wrinkle

Ah, I missed that you were talking about a hypothetical where we signed Draisaitl to that contract.

But my point (and the reason I brought up the Draisaitl contract with regards to Celebrini) was about how the Draisaitl contract shows that the third contracts for superstars essentially kill contenders. I'm stating that our true contending window is the next eleven years (3Y ELC + 8Y second contract). Not to say that Draisaitl's new contract has any bearing on Celebrini's second contract.

 

[hohosaregood]

By the time Celebrini's ELC is over, $10m x 8 could easily be the new $8m x 8 that you lock up 1st liners to. I don't think it's going to be that much of an issue if the cap continues to go up.

 

[weastern bias]

My hope is he wants to do the stupid thing where he has his jersey number in his contract and we get him for $9.71Mx8Y and it's signed on July 1st, 2026 as soon as it's legally possible

 

[Pinkfloyd]

We can worry about Celebrini's next contract in two years. We only have Toffoli's last year and Hertl's retention committed for Celebrini's next contract. I think we'll be fine with whatever it ends up being. I'm hoping Grier manages his way to the Sharks being a playoff team in the final year of his ELC but we'll see. Our blue line still needs a lot of work.

 

[weastern bias]

We'll also have Eklund's extension on the books by then but it remains to be seen what he can command by then

He's coming off 16 goals and 45 points, so if his production doesn't pick up massively we have a shot to get him on a real bargain deal like $7Mx7Y, but I think it's a little early to project for him, he still hasn't really broken out yet but I think we all see he has real potential as a scorer

 

[Pinkfloyd]

We'll also have Eklund's extension on the books by then but it remains to be seen what he can command by then

He's coming off 16 goals and 45 points, so if his production doesn't pick up massively we have a shot to get him on a real bargain deal like $7Mx7Y, but I think it's a little early to project for him, he still hasn't really broken out yet but I think we all see he has real potential as a scorer

We'll also likely have a Zetterlund extension in there too. I'd be surprised if he didn't get at least a four year deal if he has another 20 goal campaign.

 

[TheBeard]

We'll also likely have a Zetterlund extension in there too. I'd be surprised if he didn't get at least a four year deal if he has another 20 goal campaign.

Cool. Give it to him at 3.5 per

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Cool. Give it to him at 3.5 per

If he has a second year similar to last or better, 3.5 mil will probably be below his market value since it'll buy at least three UFA years.

 

[Sharksfan66]

I see this roster in two parts; pre trade deadline and a post deadline roster.

The pre deadline roster puts Granlund in the 1C position with Eklund and Zetterlund riding shotgun. The jury is still out how Smith and Celebrini will be played. It would not shock me to see them both paired in some sort of sheltered version in a 3rd line role averaging 13-15 mins and getting some power play time.

Eklund-Granlund-Zetterlund
Kostin-Wennberg-Toffoli
Goodrow-Celebrini-Smith
Kunin-Sturm-Dellandrea
Grundstrom/Bordeleau

Walman-Ceci
Ferraro-Rutta
Thrun-Benning
Vlasic

Blackwood/Vanecek

Post deadline, we should see the emergence of Askarov as a spot starter role with whichever goalie is not traded. Celebrini and Smith should see action apart. Personally I would like to see Celebrini/Smith semi sheltered here if they decide to keep some of their pending UFAs. But I think it’s possible they put Wennberg in the 1C, Smith moves to the middle as a 3C & Celebrini in the 2C with Zetterlund on the RW.

Eklund(f1)-Wennberg-Toffoli
Kostin-Celebrini-Zetterlund(f1)
Bordeleau-Smith-Dellandrea
Grundstrom-Goodrow-Graf

Walman-Ferraro
Thrun-Benning
Mukhamadullin-Vlasic
Thompson

Askarov/Vanacek

The post deadline roster does look a pretty rough. And of course injury does become a factor for the youngsters. The forward and defense take a big roster hit as Im sure Granlund, Sturm, Kunin, Ceci, Rutta & Blackwood will be dealt. I wouldn’t oppose to holding onto Rutta if the trade offers are weak just to help settle the defense.

There are some expectations this year I would like to see the Sharks do this year: Continued growth from the young guns starting with Eklund hitting the 60 point mark. Having Celebrini and Smith notch a .60-.70 ppg season. Establish some more of the young guys into specific roles like Dellandrea and Graf. Will be keeping a close eye on their pending RFA’s specifically Bordeleau and Kostin to see if there is any growth or next step potential. Grier to get more assets in either picks or players.

Lastly the elephant in the room, Couture. Warsofsky should probably rearrange his captaincy at this point. It makes zero sense to continue having an off-ice captain and just give it to Barclay Goodrow already. There’s a lot to be said about a undrafted free agent that goes on to win multiple cups.

This season will probably get ugly. Outside of what was listed above, there isnt much expectations from this roster. But the theme needs to be growth. A bottom 5 finish is in the cards more so than a bubble playoff team.

Goodrow burner account confirmed.

For real though, I’m pumped to have Goodie back this year. Pumped! I just don’t think a 4th liner should wear the C. Gives me Jeff Odgers flashbacks. Not exactly the best time to be a Sharks fan. I think Friedman also said something along these lines on one of his last podcasts?

 

[sampler]

Doesnt make any sense to speculate on Smith or celebrini's next contract (or eklund for that matter).

DW played those cards perfectly in dealing with up and coming stars like cooch, meier, or hertl. Always ELC, then either 2 yr bridge, then 4 yr bridge, then the big one OR ELC+ 4 year bridge, then the big one. Never ELC, then 8 year big one.

1. Cooch: ELC, then 2 yrs around 3m per. then 4 yr, 6M per. Then the big one.

2. Hertl: ELC, then 2 years 3M per, then 4 yrs 5.6M per, then the big one.

3. meier: ELC, then 4 yrs 6M per. Then the big one (from NJD)

He knew that signing a 21 or 22 year old to a big money and term deal was foolhardy, both because you lose the RFA discount and because you run the big risk of a long term albatross.

Depending on how they do this year+, Eklund should be in line to get approximately 2-3 years, 4-5M per. Similar for smith and celly depending on production. Then, if they outplay those contracts, at 24 or 25 years old, they get the big 7-8 year extension for big bucks.

I would be both shocked and siappointed to see grier jump into an 8 year, big money deal right out of the ELC. There is zero need to pay full price and jump the gun for a player with 2-3 years of NHL experience who you own as an RFA for at least 4-5 more years. bridge deals are your friend.

 

[Hodge]

He knew that signing a 21 or 22 year old to a big money and term deal was foolhardy, both because you lose the RFA discount and because you run the big risk of a long term albatross.

Yeah it was much smarter to sign 30 year olds to long term albatross contracts instead.

 

[Cas]

Doesnt make any sense to speculate on Smith or celebrini's next contract (or eklund for that matter).

DW played those cards perfectly in dealing with up and coming stars like cooch, meier, or hertl. Always ELC, then either 2 yr bridge, then 4 yr bridge, then the big one OR ELC+ 4 year bridge, then the big one. Never ELC, then 8 year big one.

1. Cooch: ELC, then 2 yrs around 3m per. then 4 yr, 6M per. Then the big one.

2. Hertl: ELC, then 2 years 3M per, then 4 yrs 5.6M per, then the big one.

3. meier: ELC, then 4 yrs 6M per. Then the big one (from NJD)

He knew that signing a 21 or 22 year old to a big money and term deal was foolhardy, both because you lose the RFA discount and because you run the big risk of a long term albatross.

Depending on how they do this year+, Eklund should be in line to get approximately 2-3 years, 4-5M per. Similar for smith and celly depending on production. Then, if they outplay those contracts, at 24 or 25 years old, they get the big 7-8 year extension for big bucks.

I would be both shocked and siappointed to see grier jump into an 8 year, big money deal right out of the ELC. There is zero need to pay full price and jump the gun for a player with 2-3 years of NHL experience who you own as an RFA for at least 4-5 more years. bridge deals are your friend.

Those were Wilson deals, not Grier deals. The general trend among the league is long-term, big (but not huge) dollar deals, because you get most or all of a player's prime years, maybe even a little more, while locking in a below-market cap hit, rather than a few bargain years and then having to pay real money or lose a player at a young age.

The Couture and Hertl deals are no longer relevant - in hockey market terms, those were eons ago.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Doesnt make any sense to speculate on Smith or celebrini's next contract (or eklund for that matter).

DW played those cards perfectly in dealing with up and coming stars like cooch, meier, or hertl. Always ELC, then either 2 yr bridge, then 4 yr bridge, then the big one OR ELC+ 4 year bridge, then the big one. Never ELC, then 8 year big one.

1. Cooch: ELC, then 2 yrs around 3m per. then 4 yr, 6M per. Then the big one.

2. Hertl: ELC, then 2 years 3M per, then 4 yrs 5.6M per, then the big one.

3. meier: ELC, then 4 yrs 6M per. Then the big one (from NJD)

He knew that signing a 21 or 22 year old to a big money and term deal was foolhardy, both because you lose the RFA discount and because you run the big risk of a long term albatross.

Depending on how they do this year+, Eklund should be in line to get approximately 2-3 years, 4-5M per. Similar for smith and celly depending on production. Then, if they outplay those contracts, at 24 or 25 years old, they get the big 7-8 year extension for big bucks.

I would be both shocked and siappointed to see grier jump into an 8 year, big money deal right out of the ELC. There is zero need to pay full price and jump the gun for a player with 2-3 years of NHL experience who you own as an RFA for at least 4-5 more years. bridge deals are your friend.

DW may have played those hands perfectly then but it is no longer where the players and the market is. If we have a legitimate 1/2C combo with Celebrini and Smith and they show as such in the final year of their ELC's, it is in their best interest to re-sign them to 8 year deals. Chances are they will be huge sweetheart deals on the latter half of their deals in a rising cap league. Eklund is also someone I'd sign for 8 years after his final year. The only prospect that I'd be concerned about providing a long term contract to is Askarov but if he turns into the undisputable #1 goalie by the end of his extension, they're not going to have much of a choice. You have to pay the players you're believing are the core to your competitive future.

 

[weastern bias]

The bridge deal is done in the meta, you just get f***ed over on the third contract

You're much better off taking a risk on a super talented 21 year old and maybe overpaying them during their prime rather than giving out a premium to a 27 year old and almost definitely overpaying them during their decline

 

[gaucholoco3]

Also with buyouts of sub 26 year old players being only 1/3, the risk isn’t that high on a young player.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

Also with buyouts of sub 26 year old players being only 1/3, the risk isn’t that high on a young player.

This is the thing that ties the bow on the strategy. For the players where you can form a high-confidence projection coming out of their ELC take the plunge on the big contract, and you have a couple of seasons to pull the ripcord if they fizzle. You can mitigate that buyout. When you bridge + bridge + go big, that low cost escape hatch no longer exists; and you’re stuck with Darnell Nurse forever.

Unless of course you have a franchise player who insists on three year contracts and is willing to take a modest pay cut to keep room to sign other players. In retrospect, without Thornton setting an artificially low upper bound for the team’s cap structure I wonder how long DW is able to keep the entire band together like the Sharks did for so long.

 

[timorous me]

DW may have played those hands perfectly then but it is no longer where the players and the market is. If we have a legitimate 1/2C combo with Celebrini and Smith and they show as such in the final year of their ELC's, it is in their best interest to re-sign them to 8 year deals. Chances are they will be huge sweetheart deals on the latter half of their deals in a rising cap league. Eklund is also someone I'd sign for 8 years after his final year. The only prospect that I'd be concerned about providing a long term contract to is Askarov but if he turns into the undisputable #1 goalie by the end of his extension, they're not going to have much of a choice. You have to pay the players you're believing are the core to your competitive future.

This is the realist's perspective, and I can't help but think it's the way we have to be looking at Grier's moves in the coming years. Any fanciful notions based on previous approaches--which are now outdated--aren't fair to him or the players involved.

The good thing is that if this is how everything plays out, even if it's painful financially (for Plattner), the better it's going to be for the team in the big picture of it all.

And I agree fully on Eklund. I just loved how he came on last season and I think he's going to absolutely thrive with more offensive talent around him in the coming years. Rankings like Pronman's are doing him a disservice and distorting the view of some fans out there, I'm afraid.

 

[mogambomoroo]

I would totally be all in for the 8 year contracts for Celebrini and Smith if they can drive the team as 1/2C. It's very important to have them at their prime locked in. You will have more free agents interested that could take a paycut if they believe they can win here.
Eklund with a long term "hometown" discount could be huge as a premium two-way winger.

On another note it has been refreshing to see a lot NHL content makers being excited to follow San Jose this upcoming season. San Jose is back on the map and I love it.
Getting Celebrini was not important only because Sharks need to get better but to help make this team interesting again for the whole league.

 

[Hodge]

This is the thing that ties the bow on the strategy. For the players where you can form a high-confidence projection coming out of their ELC take the plunge on the big contract, and you have a couple of seasons to pull the ripcord if they fizzle. You can mitigate that buyout. When you bridge + bridge + go big, that low cost escape hatch no longer exists; and you’re stuck with Darnell Nurse forever.

Unless of course you have a franchise player who insists on three year contracts and is willing to take a modest pay cut to keep room to sign other players. In retrospect, without Thornton setting an artificially low upper bound for the team’s cap structure I wonder how long DW is able to keep the entire band together like the Sharks did for so long.

Thornton was making 17% of the cap ceiling when the Sharks acquired him then made 13% on his first extension, the equivalent of $15M and $11.4M cap hits today. Those were not artificially low contracts.