Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[coooldude]

I'm not worried about the team getting to the playoffs next season. I only worry about getting development out of the players that are their future. I consider next season a success if Eklund hits 20 goals, Celebrini establishes himself as the 1C by the end of the season, Smith does the same at 2C, and either one of Mukhamadullin or Thrun show they belong in the NHL.

Holy shit, this would be an incredible outcome for the season.

I'll feel like the season is a success if:

• Celebrini scores 40 points and seems like he's getting his feet under him. 1C is a stretch goal.
• Smith scores 40 points and doesn't look totally lost. 2C is a stretch goal.
• Eklund hits 20 goals - hell yeah! if he's at 55-60 points that's a huge success. Even if he just treads water at ~45-50pts it's OK in my book, not a bad year unless he takes a step back.
• Zetterlund scores 15. 20 was unexpected.
• Mukh sticks in the lineup in any capacity
• Thrun can play regular bottom 4 minutes and not look overwhelmed.

Anything else is a bonus and puts us on a much better rebuild trajectory, but the above bullets still have us on my personal expected rebuild trajectory. Plus if we hit the above bullets but not much higher, we're almost certainly still the worst team in the league giving us a top 3 pick.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Holy shit, this would be an incredible outcome for the season.

I'll feel like the season is a success if:

• Celebrini scores 40 points and seems like he's getting his feet under him. 1C is a stretch goal.
• Smith scores 40 points and doesn't look totally lost. 2C is a stretch goal.
• Eklund hits 20 goals - hell yeah! if he's at 55-60 points that's a huge success. Even if he just treads water at ~45-50pts it's OK in my book, not a bad year unless he takes a step back.
• Zetterlund scores 15. 20 was unexpected.
• Mukh sticks in the lineup in any capacity
• Thrun can play regular bottom 4 minutes and not look overwhelmed.

Anything else is a bonus and puts us on a much better rebuild trajectory, but the above bullets still have us on my personal expected rebuild trajectory. Plus if we hit the above bullets but not much higher, we're almost certainly still the worst team in the league giving us a top 3 pick.

I think Celebrini and Smith establishing themselves as 1 and 2C doesn't necessarily have to mean producing in line with that immediately. For me, it just means them playing the minutes and responsibilities and holding their own. Creating chances and making players around them better. And really, this doesn't need to happen over the full course of the regular season. I'm thinking more along the lines of them playing that role as the season finishes because Granlund is the guy currently tasked with being the top center to insulate them. Eklund improving by four goals over a season seems like a reasonable expectation of him in his second full year. I think if Eklund does some improving, it will probably mean Zetterlund's production becomes a little more sustainable. He may not improve on his goal or points total but he should be pretty close to it.

 

[PattyLafontaine]

You guys are so pessimistic

The 92-93 Sharks literally set the record for most losses in a season with a 17 game losing streak along the way. Then they made the playoffs the next season and even beat Yzerman’s Red Wings in round 1.

They pulled off a similar turnaround from 96-97 to 97-98. And for those saying that’s ancient history, the leafs just did this after drafting 1OA for Matthews.

I’ve pointed this out a few times this summer and still haven’t heard a reasonable response for why the Sharks can’t do it again.

Note: I’m not saying it’s a guarantee they’ll make the playoffs (not by a long shot) but the prevailing wisdom on here seems to be that it’s a foregone conclusion that they will not make the playoffs this year or next year, and I genuinely don’t get why we all go along with this.

Because it's not 92-93 and it's ridiculous to expect teenagers to carry a team.

 

[TheBeard]

I would be shocked if Celebrini got less than 55. I would have said differently prior to Toffoli but I think Tyler alone gets Macklin 20-25 apples.

 

[Alaskanice]

I think Toffoli will go down as one of our best free agent signings. He’s going to help our kids in scoring.

 

[coooldude]

I would be shocked if Celebrini got less than 55. I would have said differently prior to Toffoli but I think Tyler alone gets Macklin 20-25 apples.

I hope you're right!!

 

[TheBeard]

I hope you're right!!

I don't think it matters one way or another. Points shouldn't be indicative of his development. I'm more concerned about how good he looks.

 

[STL Shark]

I would be shocked if Celebrini got less than 55. I would have said differently prior to Toffoli but I think Tyler alone gets Macklin 20-25 apples.

If he plays all 82 (or very close to it) then I think 50ish is a good number. I don't think he's going to cheat defense for offense and get deployed in an offense only role like Bedard did this year. Beniers would be a solid comp for rookie scoring, but skeptical because he was a full 2 years older than Celebrini (and also just bigger frame overall as a young player).

I'd imagine he will miss some games as he adjusts to the rigorous NHL schedule, and also playing against men. Hope he can get 70 or so games as a rookie with Smith probably getting less as I think he will get some press box time to learn from above occasionally when the rookie wall is pushing against him.

20-30-50 would be a good year for Macklin. Could see him get to 55-60 if our PP performs well, but unsure on that currently. Think 50-55 from Macklin and 35-40 from Smith would be huge for the long-term prospectus of the Sharks. Sets them up for big jumps in Year 2 and gives Grier some freedom/comfort to invest some more assets to keep building around them.

 

[Alaskanice]

Being petty, I hope Macklin scores more than Bedard did.

 

[TheBeard]

If he plays all 82 (or very close to it) then I think 50ish is a good number. I don't think he's going to cheat defense for offense and get deployed in an offense only role like Bedard did this year. Beniers would be a solid comp for rookie scoring, but skeptical because he was a full 2 years older than Celebrini (and also just bigger frame overall as a young player).

I'd imagine he will miss some games as he adjusts to the rigorous NHL schedule, and also playing against men. Hope he can get 70 or so games as a rookie with Smith probably getting less as I think he will get some press box time to learn from above occasionally when the rookie wall is pushing against him.

20-30-50 would be a good year for Macklin. Could see him get to 55-60 if our PP performs well, but unsure on that currently. Think 50-55 from Macklin and 35-40 from Smith would be huge for the long-term prospectus of the Sharks. Sets them up for big jumps in Year 2 and gives Grier some freedom/comfort to invest some more assets to keep building around them.

You may be right. We'll see. I think this applies more to Smith than Celebrini as Celly strikes me as someone who won't hit the wall in ways most rookies do. The production may dry up but he's ultra competitive and I don't see him being someone who will take shifts off and get flustered easily. I can see Grier and War leaving him in the lineup for all 82 (health permitting) a) to get him adjusted to the rigors of an 82 game season and b) good luck convincing him to want to come out of the lineup.

 

[TheBeard]

Being petty, I hope Macklin scores more than Bedard did.

Wouldn't surprise me. I feel like Celebrini has far more talent to play with than Bedard did, especially when Hall went down. I believe he played with Kurashev and Foligno for most of the season. If there's a shot Logan is healthy, a second line of him/Toffoli/ Celebrin should be providing far more offense than we've seen in years.

 

[Jargon]

I am prepared for an Eklund breakout year, honestly. He really hit his stride as the year ended and while he’s gotten to play with some good players in Hertl, Granlund and Zetterlund, having a mildly functional defense and getting time with elite elite guys like Smith and Celebrini should be really good for him. I also expect him to go into the season as one of the leaders on the team — I’m expecting a big season.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I would be thrilled with 50 points from Macklin and 40 points from Smith, personally. More importantly, I just want them to stay healthy and play full seasons.

I feel like both will take some time to get settled in the NHL, so don't expect a four goal game out of the gate for either.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I would be thrilled with 50 points from Macklin and 40 points from Smith, personally. More importantly, I just want them to stay healthy and play full seasons.

I feel like both will take some time to get settled in the NHL, so don't expect a four goal game out of the gate for either.

I would be as well. I don't think it means the season isn't a success if they don't even get to that mark. It just depends on their usage, the personnel especially in the latter half of the season, and how they're handling the speed and physicality of the game. I don't expect much of a lull in Celebrini's game as the season wears on because he seems strong and very willing to play with consistent effort off the puck. Smith is the one that I'm unsure of on how he'll handle being a player if he's not producing. But even if he's non-existent for stretches of games, he can finish a season strong with increased responsibilities with potentially better linemates depending on his roles pre and post-trade deadline.

The young defensemen that may get real opportunities are the ones I'm keeping my eye on the most this season. I want to see Mukhamadullin and/or Thrun establish themselves as NHL'ers. They need them to give the team something that resembles a future foundation to the blue line.

 

[Mattb124]

I would be thrilled with 50 points from Macklin and 40 points from Smith, personally. More importantly, I just want them to stay healthy and play full seasons.

I feel like both will take some time to get settled in the NHL, so don't expect a four goal game out of the gate for either.

And I think it is fair to assume neither can handle an 82 game schedule right out of the gate. 1st year players tend to either disappear or end up in the press box for stretches.

 

[weastern bias]

The more I watch Celebrini the more I'm in love with him as a player, it wouldn't shock me if he has a surprising rookie season and surpassed 60 points, he's so special, but what REALLY makes him special is that his game isn't all about offensive production, like @TheBeard said evaluating his rookie season will be more about his habits than his numbers

 

[pappaf2]

I don't think it matters one way or another. Points shouldn't be indicative of his development. I'm more concerned about how good he looks.

So based on this photo, how good does he look?

 

[Bizz]

I would be thrilled with 50 points from Macklin and 40 points from Smith, personally. More importantly, I just want them to stay healthy and play full seasons.

I feel like both will take some time to get settled in the NHL, so don't expect a four goal game out of the gate for either.

I hope Macklin scores 5 in his first game and the main boards get flooded with "Celebrini > AM34" threads for the rest of their careers.

 

[TheBeard]

So based on this photo, how good does he look?

I don't want to say anything that can be used against me and my family

 

[Juxtaposer]

And I think it is fair to assume neither can handle an 82 game schedule right out of the gate. 1st year players tend to either disappear or end up in the press box for stretches.

18 year olds in the NHL tend to get hurt. Bedard, Carlsson, Fantilli, Slafkovsky, Hughes, etc. That's what I want to avoid.

 

[Mattb124]

18 year olds in the NHL tend to get hurt. Bedard, Carlsson, Fantilli, Slafkovsky, Hughes, etc. That's what I want to avoid.

Yes, and even if they do not get hurt, they tend to have lulls due to the rigors of the 82 game schedule which limits their production. I just think it is fair to the player to diminish expectations accordingly.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Yes, and even if they do not get hurt, they tend to have lulls due to the rigors of the 82 game schedule which limits their production. I just think it is fair to the player to diminish expectations accordingly.

Totally. I just dream of Celebrini and Smith breaking the mold.

 

[Coffees]

They lost me at Edmonton winning this year.

Well so far it's been close...

 

[TheBeard]

Well so far it's been close...

Yeah, that could have been disastrous for my smug take.

 

[gaucholoco3]

I see everyone projecting Celebrini for more points than Smith but in my opinion Smith has just as good if not better offensive potential. I think Celebrini will get better linemates but also face tougher competition. I think both will be on the PP1.

Keller scored 65 after a worse season in the NCAA than Smith. I think both will be able to pass 50 if not hurt and I don’t think it is crazy to think they can each push for 60+ points.