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Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

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sampler said:
Not a PO team with the roster of last year either way, but not necessarily historically bad.
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Quinn was awful, but our roster really was historically bad. Half of the forwards didn't even belong in the NHL and the rest were playing above their current talent level. All of the defensemen, save Ferraro, didn't belong in the NHL, and he's a bottom pairing guy.

There's an argument that we were lucky to have the record we did.
 
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I've been wondering about the RHD situation too - mainly asking myself what kind of player would suit this group and their "timeline." There's an article or two banging around somewhere about the Panthers potentially looking at trading Ekblad before his contract finishes this year. I personally pin the likelihood of that happening pretty low, but just looking at the nuts and bolts, the idea works.

29 y/o RHD with experience pulling 20+ minutes a night with championship experience. That seems worth kicking the tires on. But is that a fit with the current roster and projections for 25-26 and 26-27?

I personally would question Ekblad's injury history, but I think someone like him could lead the way for the kids coming up. Other names would have merit here for sure - Dobson, Shea Theodore, and others have come up. All of those teams FLA, FV, and NYI all have thin prospect pools and a total lack of draft capital, and probably a shitty contract to send our way for the trouble, but if that means getting a blueliner that gives the team a real shot at being NHL caliber, that's worth something.

My question is if it's too early in the process to pull the trigger on something like this?

Perhaps GMMG won't want to give up more assets to go an acquire a big name blueliner, and might think that drafting and developing the blueline is the way to go. It just seems that defenders take a bit longer to crack a lineup, and given the timeline that Celebrini and Smith are on now, it might be prudent to trade for reinforcements or sign a big free agent on the right side to give the kids their due shot before their cap hits start skyrocketing.

It's my feeling that the quicker this team starts really winning, even a playoff round or two, the more likely it is that the band sticks together. Looking at Marner and Nylander as reference points here. No sense of team, those guys squeezed Toronto for every dollar they could, and its pretty easy to see the downstream effects of that.

It seems like the pieces are almost all there now, and while I don't think the Sharks make a run at a playoff spot this year or next, being at least competitive when it comes time to resign the young guns might do wonders for the Sharks outlook moving forward.
 
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Sleeper Shark said:
I personally would question Ekblad's injury history, but I think someone like him could lead the way for the kids coming up. Other names would have merit here for sure - Dobson, Shea Theodore, and others have come up. All of those teams FLA, FV, and NYI all have thin prospect pools and a total lack of draft capital, and probably a shitty contract to send our way for the trouble, but if that means getting a blueliner that gives the team a real shot at being NHL caliber, that's worth something.

My question is if it's too early in the process to pull the trigger on something like this?

Perhaps GMMG won't want to give up more assets to go an acquire a big name blueliner, and might think that drafting and developing the blueline is the way to go. It just seems that defenders take a bit longer to crack a lineup, and given the timeline that Celebrini and Smith are on now, it might be prudent to trade for reinforcements or sign a big free agent on the right side to give the kids their due shot before their cap hits start skyrocketing.

It's my feeling that the quicker this team starts really winning, even a playoff round or two, the more likely it is that the band sticks together. Looking at Marner and Nylander as reference points here. No sense of team, those guys squeezed Toronto for every dollar they could, and its pretty easy to see the downstream effects of that.

It seems like the pieces are almost all there now, and while I don't think the Sharks make a run at a playoff spot this year or next, being at least competitive when it comes time to resign the young guns might do wonders for the Sharks outlook moving forward.
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I think that after this off-season, Grier has shown that he's looking to deal to get us back into winning seasons. I think he's very likely targeting one or all of these D and it makes sense on the timeline, but in combination with development of depth D as well. If 2 and 71 develop quickly like Kane and Toews, we will have to trade or sign for our Keith/Seabrooks and hope that Dickinson becomes a Hjalmarsson, ish.

But I would once again caution all of us that "the pieces are almost all there now" is only true if we have a 50%++ prospect hit rate and especially at the very top of the list. It's more likely, sadly, that less than 5 of our top 10 establish themselves as NHLers that truly strengthen a lineup wherever they're slotting in. If we have a great hit rate, then we're contenders quickly and the rebuild is a miraculous case study. More likely in my opinion (but I'm not guaranteeing it) is that we are drafting top 5 for two more years and then we might be fringe playoffs or crack them before dumping for another season.

Even with Grier wheeling and dealing, our D pool is thin and our top 6 is still thin in 2-3 years without a big hit on one of Musty, Haltts, Chernyshov. I'm sure they'll all play games, but will their peak align with what the team needs? So much has to go right for us to be true contenders and not land somewhere in the mushy middle.
 
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Barrie22 said:
We should try and sign restricted free agents seider and harley.
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I was turning over the idea of Seider in my head and I think it really comes down to that we'd have to offer the 2x 1sts compensation for either Seider or Detroit to consider it. Not a good idea considering those two 1sts could easily be Hagens and McKenna, never mind the smaller problem of us not having our own 3rd.

I really like him as a player and as a fit in this org. If he was on the block for any reason I'd really consider doing something stupid like Smith+Dickinson... But I think we should stay the course at this point.
 
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sampler said:
I really think the sharks will be a whole lot better than we think. Sturm's quote illustrated the incompetence of Quinn. I've posted repeatedly about how Quinn's departure revolutionized NYR. Honestly, I think Quinn is arguably the worst coach in the NHL, and I wouldnt be surprised if quinn alone was reason for 20-30 pts lost. Not a PO team with the roster of last year either way, but not necessarily historically bad. Thats a Quinn effect of having no system, so much confusion, and just plain ugly.

Coaches matter. They arent everything, but they matter. Look at what Gerard Gallant did with start up vegas or after Quinn in New York, or what Lemaire did with NJD. He was so good at coaching that they had to change the rules because of his neutral zone trap to eliminate the two line pass.

Warsofsky seems to be exponentially better. I wanted Carle or Gallant, but I am warming to Warsofsky. Hes very young. he's personable. He's won a championship just 2 years ago in the AHL and has been a winner at every level very swiftly moving up the ranks. When a guy moves from caoching at non-name Curry college to being an ECHL assistant coach to ECHL head, to AHL Asst, to AHL head, to NHL asst, to NHL head coach in such short time, something is right with him. He knows how to coach defense (not just manage the D, but coach defensive systems) and the PK. He knows how to relate to each player individually (getting full buy in from goodrow after he got totally hosed is amazing). If he can get full buy in from everyone, that's HUGE. A good system, a healthy locker room, and full buy in from players goes a loooooong way. The only problem is that hes a bit undersized at 5'9"...

This year's team is vastly better than last year and its a largely brand new team. 12 new starters, new Coach. New top liners. More quality vets and more young talent. It has multiple cup winners (goodie, toffoli along with ruuta and sturm), as well as ceci who was one game away from a cup winner. It has a calder cup champion coach. There is a fair amount of buzz and optimism around the org.

Imagine last year's team had 67 pts instead of 47 because we had a reasonable system and more buy in from players. If we were coming from a 4th worst reference point, the PO's would seem far more realistic. lets see what happens!

I just put 100 on the sharks to win the cup.... hoping to $40,000 (well aside from taxes)...
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I read through this but I think one thing we need to remember. Nico Sturm is the same person that last season said the sharks would surprise people.
 
Gecklund said:
I read through this but I think one thing we need to remember. Nico Sturm is the same person that last season said the sharks would surprise people.
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To be fair to Sturm, and this has been mentioned a lot, we went into the season with Hertl - Couture - Granlund - Sturm as our center depth and never had all four in the lineup at the same time. If we did, I don’t think we would’ve been AS bad?

But hey, thanks to Couture’s groin, we got Celebrini. In many ways, he’s basically his father.
 
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Jargon said:
To be fair to Sturm, and this has been mentioned a lot, we went into the season with Hertl - Couture - Granlund - Sturm as our center depth and never had all four in the lineup at the same time. If we did, I don’t think we would’ve been AS bad?

But hey, thanks to Couture’s groin, we got Celebrini. In many ways, he’s basically his father.
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I mean let’s be honest it wasn’t scoring that was the issue. It was the defense.
 
Barrie22 said:
I mean considering we scored only 180 goals (2nd last) only 2 above last and 23 away from 30th. I would say scoring was just as big of an issue as defense.
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Yes cause having no dmen that should be above the third pair is a smart strategy. The issue is the sharks last year but either way even with couture healthy and Hertl on the team this team finished exactly where they should have
 
Jargon said:
To be fair to Sturm, and this has been mentioned a lot, we went into the season with Hertl - Couture - Granlund - Sturm as our center depth and never had all four in the lineup at the same time. If we did, I don’t think we would’ve been AS bad?

But hey, thanks to Couture’s groin, we got Celebrini. In many ways, he’s basically his father.
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Yes, and I think the effects of Benning's injury are underrated. He was the only above-average puck-mover on the blueline.
 
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OrrNumber4 said:
Yes, and I think the effects of Benning's injury are underrated. He was the only above-average puck-mover on the blueline.
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The fact that this is true (maybe "above-average" is an overstatement - he was our best puckmover, though) is a rather significant indictment of the quality of our blue line.
 
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Last year was a team effort, beginning with Quinn. I mean, Sturm's assessment is about the most damning interview about a coach I have every seen. To say that the team was confused, had no system, no idea how to build up plays especially in the D zone, and that they will be better this year because we have a new coach speaks volumes.

Yes, the personnel was not good. But a weak roster with a super coach can still be respectable. A weak roster with the worst coach in the NHL means historic ineptitude.

Also, O helps D and D helps O. A team with a stellar O lineup and weak D lineup can still do well because the O can cycle and help control the puck taking pressure off the D. Furthermore, a great D corps helps the O because they can carry pucks out, make good breakout passes, and shut down odd man chances against. And, a good system with everyone in sync and knowing where each other is can make up for a lack of pure talent A LOT. Organized teams look fast and play fast even if individuals may not be mcdavids or mackinnons.

If Warsofsky can get buy in, creates an organized team that knows where each other is and how to make plays at speed, then we can make up for the lack of a Quinn Hughes, Hedman, or makar on the blue line. I also would not be in the least bit surprised, if warsofsky does well, to see Walman put up 50 pts and Ceci put up 40. Sound insane? Of course. But Walman had 20 goals and 33 pts at even strength the last two years playing under 20 mins/gm. What happens if he plays 22-23 mins/gm, and is on the number 1 PP unit? I could see his numbers easily double with more ice, more O zone stars, and more PP time.

Ceci too. 25 pts last year, Zero PP time. 28 pts a few years before, Zero PP time. and only 20 mins. What if he gets 22-23 mins, and number 2 pp time? 40 pts would be in line...

Suddenly, the sharks would have 2+ 40 pt Dmen including a potnetial 15-20 goal scoring Dman in Walman. Woah, that's a very different universe than we currently live in, but these things absolutely happen when the opportunity and coaching is in place.
 
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Pinkfloyd said:
A lot of it is because the leverage doesn't make sense. Moving the top pick for Dobson is a large overpay. Dobson is only available if he's pricing himself out of New York. That should be enough leverage to at least protect the pick in the top ten. We also have other assets to cover the difference and nobody else is likely to have a want to pay a top ten pick for Dobson in that same situation. The other thing is that this draft is likely their next best bet to address such a position if Dobson isn't available. Nobody else on the trade or free agent market looks like a similar answer to such a positional need. We shouldn't pay any and all cost to address such a need. We still have to be smart about leverage.
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It would take more than just Dobson assuredly. I know the NFL and NHL are not the world's best comps in league, but that is the last league that had a #1 overall pick traded in recent memory. The Bears got 9th overall in 2023, 1st rounder in 2024, 2nd rounder in 2023, 2nd rounder in 2025, PLUS they got DJ Moore (who is very much the Noah Dobson equivalent in this deal).

So if we're moving the #1 pick with Dobson in mind, it has to include a lot of other stuff too from NYI to go along with him. I don't see Lou being the type to trade anything from now for the future, so I doubt that would happen. Dobson is a good point producer, but that isn't a must have skillset in my opinion and is somewhat empty calorie spending in my opinion unless they're also very good at actually defending.
 
STL Shark said:
It would take more than just Dobson assuredly. I know the NFL and NHL are not the world's best comps in league, but that is the last league that had a #1 overall pick traded in recent memory. The Bears got 9th overall in 2023, 1st rounder in 2024, 2nd rounder in 2023, 2nd rounder in 2025, PLUS they got DJ Moore (who is very much the Noah Dobson equivalent in this deal).

So if we're moving the #1 pick with Dobson in mind, it has to include a lot of other stuff too from NYI to go along with him. I don't see Lou being the type to trade anything from now for the future, so I doubt that would happen. Dobson is a good point producer, but that isn't a must have skillset in my opinion and is somewhat empty calorie spending in my opinion unless they're also very good at actually defending.
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Isles have a bad prospect pool. The only way I can see this trade working is #1oa for Dobson and their #1 pick (depending on where it is obviously)
 
sampler said:
Optimism
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Sure, a lot of things could go right, but a lot of things could go wrong! I'm sure there will be a tailwind: a new coach, so much turnover, and all the rookies with energy trying to assert themselves. But as the season drags on they are going to hit headwinds.

Not to mention that as the season progresses, Grier will almost assuredly decide to confirm the team as sellers, and then there will be a Cambrian expulsion of talent from the team as players are moved out.
 
OrrNumber4 said:
Sure, a lot of things could go right, but a lot of things could go wrong! I'm sure there will be a tailwind: a new coach, so much turnover, and all the rookies with energy trying to assert themselves. But as the season drags on they are going to hit headwinds.

Not to mention that as the season progresses, Grier will almost assuredly decide to confirm the team as sellers, and then there will be a Cambrian expulsion of talent from the team as players are moved out.
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There aren't nearly as many UFAs on this team as you would think, and the ones here have pretty sizable contracts. The fact the we don't have any retention spots tells me we're not gonna be as big a seller as you think:

Kunin (UFA) - 2.75
Granlund (UFA) - 5
Ruuta (UFA) - 2.75
Ceci (UFA) - 3.25
Kostin (UFA) - 2
Sturm (UFA) - 2

The two goalies
 
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