Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Barrie22]

I mean Martin Jones got a 1st, just have to hope somebody gets desperate if he keeps playing like this.

But Martin Jones was also showing promise as being on the same level as Jonathan Quick when he got that 1st.

 

[PattyLafontaine]

It would take IL for a goaltender on a top team along with Blackwood continuing to play lights out that would maximize the return. A first is extremely unlikely but not impossible.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'd rather just hold onto Blackwood for t least some stability back there. He and KK aren't a bad duo right now and it's not like there's a ton in the pipelines.

I'd only trade him if there's a reasonably good draft pick or prospect to be had. With goalies on the trade market, it seems pretty unlikely to ever see a return on Blackwood better than a 3rd round pick. Given the 6th round pick it took to acquire him, you're still out ahead of course but I'd rather extend him if he continues to play at this level. That's also a year and a half out though. Nobody is trading for him this season.

I know it's unlikely and this is an active tank roster by Grier but I can't help but get a little nervous that this was him implementing his plan expecting us to be better than we have been (ignoring it's early in the year, tons of roster turn over, no Couture, etc)

I thought we'd be terrible but so far it's been real ugly, especially on D

Still have faith but I hope the moves over the next 2-3 years lead to the progress we expect

My expectations of the team are pretty low. The D on paper after the Karlsson was ugly. It was ugly with Karlsson. I expect a long rebuild simply because I don't believe they have anyone to build around yet. Eklund and Smith are the high draft picks but I just don't see them as foundational pieces. I think they can be quality secondary pieces. They got nothing really like that on the blue line. Maybe Muk can be that guy. It's hard to tell until he gets an opportunity in the NHL. Thrun seems like a solid depth piece maybe 2nd pairing. We either need to get an elite catalyst or two or we need to stuff this team with solid young players to provide depth in all positions to get to competitive status. We're at least three years off either way which will include a complete overhaul of the blue line from what it is now with most of the blue line having expiring contracts in 2025-26. We're just going to have to be patient and suffer lol

 

[TheBeard]

I'd only trade him if there's a reasonably good draft pick or prospect to be had. With goalies on the trade market, it seems pretty unlikely to ever see a return on Blackwood better than a 3rd round pick. Given the 6th round pick it took to acquire him, you're still out ahead of course but I'd rather extend him if he continues to play at this level. That's also a year and a half out though. Nobody is trading for him this season.

I can see a team like Carolina or TB or even Dallas trading for someone like him. Carolina always seems to have injury concerns in nets and Dallas/TB need to be cautious about overusing their 1 and someone who may need a break in a series.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I can see a team like Carolina or TB or even Dallas trading for someone like him. Carolina always seems to have injury concerns in nets and Dallas/TB need to be cautious about overusing their 1 and someone who may need a break in a series.

Yeah but they're likely to avoid anyone with an extra year on their contracts. If they're going to trade for reinforcements, it's going to be someone that's expiring at season's end.

 

[TheBeard]

Yeah but they're likely to avoid anyone with an extra year on their contracts. If they're going to trade for reinforcements, it's going to be someone that's expiring at season's end.

Maybe. Maybe not. They may want the stability of someone who will have another year left at a reasonable hit. Dallas has no one else signed next year except Otter at a bargain 4 million. Carolina has Anderson and Kochetkov but how much do they have in them to be the answer? Tampa may be a harder sell with how Johansson is playing, but bottom line at only 27 I don't see why some teams wouldn't see that extra year as a benefit instead of a detriment if he continues to play upper-tier hockey.

 

[Skeksis25]

I worry that we are going to basically be the Coyotes or Sabres in that we are just awful year after year after year and once in a while we compete for a 7th or 8th seed before going back into the rut again. You need a decent amount of luck, need to hit on high picks and hope later round picks can contribute. Even our glory years were the result of Jumbo being available and traded to us out of nowhere and late round guys like Pavs, Clowe, even Nabby turning out to be really good.

Nowadays it seems most of the good teams have multiple guys capable of producing at PPG levels, do it all defensemen and good goalies. Meanwhile even our top guys, we sit here and hope they can be solid top 6 guys or regular defensemen. Unless we can hit on some pick or two that is genuinely a difference maker or another 25-26 year old superstar is traded to us, it feels so bleak.

Planning to start competing by 2028 sounds possible on paper, but we need real blue chip prospects. I don't know if Eklund or Smith are that, but hopefully they can be solid sidekick type players to a true superstar or 2. Be this generations version of Marleau while we wait for Jumbo.

 

[coooldude]

My expectations of the team are pretty low. The D on paper after the Karlsson was ugly. It was ugly with Karlsson. I expect a long rebuild simply because I don't believe they have anyone to build around yet. Eklund and Smith are the high draft picks but I just don't see them as foundational pieces. I think they can be quality secondary pieces. They got nothing really like that on the blue line. Maybe Muk can be that guy. It's hard to tell until he gets an opportunity in the NHL. Thrun seems like a solid depth piece maybe 2nd pairing. We either need to get an elite catalyst or two or we need to stuff this team with solid young players to provide depth in all positions to get to competitive status. We're at least three years off either way which will include a complete overhaul of the blue line from what it is now with most of the blue line having expiring contracts in 2025-26. We're just going to have to be patient and suffer lol

Planning to start competing by 2028 sounds possible on paper, but we need real blue chip prospects. I don't know if Eklund or Smith are that, but hopefully they can be solid sidekick type players to a true superstar or 2. Be this generations version of Marleau while we wait for Jumbo.

It's been my drumbeat since the draft... IF and ONLY IF we do the rebuild right, do we have a shot to look like NJD in about 6 years. Not yet a true contender, but everyone's pick for true contender in the next 3-5 years. Pinkfloyd has been saying this everywhere, but we started from basically zero draft capital before the 2023 draft, and it's going to take 5 more years of draft capital accumulation, some of whom become actual key players, others get moved for the right assets (like NJD tried to do with Meier). I also think that Eklund and Smith are complementary, but with the right top C/F and top D, they could be extremely solid complements.

On the D side, I'm with you. We are barren... D prospects look like last year's F prospects - Muk is probably Eklund level, as in, ceiling is complementary piece but not the #1 guy. If we draft 3rd or below in 2024, we should be targeting any number of the extremely solid, immediately better prospect than Mukh D's (Levshunov, Silayev... Kiviharju). If we draft 1-2, we're probably going Macklin or Eiserman, and hoping that we have 11th pick from PIT, and/or another 1st from NJD... if we have both, maybe we try to trade up into the top 10 and select a top D, or maybe we just draft whatever good D falls to 11-16ish pick of PIT. That's only the beginning... we'll probably want to draft top 5 again in 2025, top 5-10 in 2026.

 

[TheBeard]

It's been my drumbeat since the draft... IF and ONLY IF we do the rebuild right, do we have a shot to look like NJD in about 6 years. Not yet a true contender, but everyone's pick for true contender in the next 3-5 years. Pinkfloyd has been saying this everywhere, but we started from basically zero draft capital before the 2023 draft, and it's going to take 5 more years of draft capital accumulation, some of whom become actual key players, others get moved for the right assets (like NJD tried to do with Meier). I also think that Eklund and Smith are complementary, but with the right top C/F and top D, they could be extremely solid complements.

On the D side, I'm with you. We are barren... D prospects look like last year's F prospects - Muk is probably Eklund level, as in, ceiling is complementary piece but not the #1 guy. If we draft 3rd or below in 2024, we should be targeting any number of the extremely solid, immediately better prospect than Mukh D's (Levshunov, Silayev... Kiviharju). If we draft 1-2, we're probably going Macklin or Eiserman, and hoping that we have 11th pick from PIT, and/or another 1st from NJD... if we have both, maybe we try to trade up into the top 10 and select a top D, or maybe we just draft whatever good D falls to 11-16ish pick of PIT. That's only the beginning... we'll probably want to draft top 5 again in 2025, top 5-10 in 2026.

I mean Detroit tanked horrifically and only have one 4th OA and three 6 OA, one of which is on our squad, in the last 7 seasons. It's no sure thing unfortunately with the lotto. Imagine being dead last by 25 points (like they were in 19-20) and still ending up only with the 4th pick?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Maybe. Maybe not. They may want the stability of someone who will have another year left at a reasonable hit. Dallas has no one else signed next year except Otter at a bargain 4 million. Carolina has Anderson and Kochetkov but how much do they have in them to be the answer? Tampa may be a harder sell with how Johansson is playing, but bottom line at only 27 I don't see why some teams wouldn't see that extra year as a benefit instead of a detriment if he continues to play upper-tier hockey.

I don't see how Blackwood can be seen as an option for stability right now with a reasonable hit. It's four good games after three bad seasons for him. 2.35 mil on a backup for these teams with an extra year is a steep price at that spot. Dallas has been pretty stable with Otter and Wedgewood. Carolina invested in Kochetkov to fill in for Andersen and/or Raanta when they get injured and fill their spot after they're finished with at least one of them. Tampa only has 10 mil in cap space for next season and already have two goalies behind Vasi signed through next season. I think they're content to ride out their goaltending until Vasi comes back near Thanksgiving. Now if he gets hurt again long term then there may be something to do there since I don't think they want Tomkins backing up long term with Johansson but there will be other options for them that may not include an extra year or someone with a bit better recent track record than Blackwood currently.

Right now, no team is going to bank on these four games that Blackwood has played to eat that extra term. Cap is too tight right now. I wouldn't be surprised if he turns in a solid performance this season that a team is willing to give us a 3rd in the offseason but I think Grier would probably prefer to keep him over that extra 3rd.

 

[TheBeard]

I don't see how Blackwood can be seen as an option for stability right now with a reasonable hit. It's four good games after three bad seasons for him. 2.35 mil on a backup for these teams with an extra year is a steep price at that spot. Dallas has been pretty stable with Otter and Wedgewood. Carolina invested in Kochetkov to fill in for Andersen and/or Raanta when they get injured and fill their spot after they're finished with at least one of them. Tampa only has 10 mil in cap space for next season and already have two goalies behind Vasi signed through next season. I think they're content to ride out their goaltending until Vasi comes back near Thanksgiving. Now if he gets hurt again long term then there may be something to do there since I don't think they want Tomkins backing up long term with Johansson but there will be other options for them that may not include an extra year or someone with a bit better recent track record than Blackwood currently.

Right now, no team is going to bank on these four games that Blackwood has played to eat that extra term. Cap is too tight right now. I wouldn't be surprised if he turns in a solid performance this season that a team is willing to give us a 3rd in the offseason but I think Grier would probably prefer to keep him over that extra 3rd.

Clearly you ignored the last 8 words of my post.

Also, defining Mackenzie’s performance based on his stats on those bad devils teams is like dismissing what Reimer did his first year here or what Adin Hill has managed to put together despite previously playing on two horrible teams. That’s a very disappointing take from you.

 

[coooldude]

I mean Detroit tanked horrifically and only have one 4th OA and three 6 OA, one of which is on our squad, in the last 7 seasons. It's no sure thing unfortunately with the lotto. Imagine being dead last by 25 points (like they were in 19-20) and still ending up only with the 4th pick?

Yes. That's why we need a lot of shots on goal. Also, their rebuild looks to be going pretty well. So... I guess you agree with my points. I'm not sure if you thought we were disagreeing?

 

[gaucholoco3]

The success of any rebuild requires at least 1 FA top6/top4/starting goalie. The past two offseasons have been simply asset acquisition to get as many useful assets as possible. Next off season will probably be the last focused just on accumulating assets. After that it is about building the best team possible with the assets. That could be prospects taking over important roles but most of the assets will be best served as trades to acquire proven talent.

 

[TheBeard]

Yes. That's why we need a lot of shots on goal. Also, their rebuild looks to be going pretty well. So... I guess you agree with my points. I'm not sure if you thought we were disagreeing?

It is but most of their team is FA pickups over the last two years ajd their leading scorer was a mid-first rounder from when they were still good.

 

[tiburon12]

The games are too early for me, so I haven't watched, but has anyone seen devils games and can comment on mercer? Wasn't njd pretty hard on not giving him up for Meier, yet now he has no points, is - 1, and only has 4 shots in 6 games.

 

[Alaskanice]

The games are too early for me, so I haven't watched, but has anyone seen devils games and can comment on mercer? Wasn't njd pretty hard on not giving him up for Meier, yet now he has no points, is - 1, and only has 4 shots in 6 games.

I can only speculate but signing Meier and Bratt to long term contracts may make him feel unappreciated.

 

[DG93]

It seems like everything lines up for the Sharks to have their big offseason in 2026 and first fun team in 2026-2027. From a coaching perspective, Quinn's deal expires after 2024-2025, so they part ways after the Sharks draft Celebrini/Eiserman and Misa/Hagens in the next 2 drafts. The Sharks promote Warsofsky or add a new coach in 2025, who basically gets a year to implement his system before 2026-2027 when a bunch of blue-chip prospects show up (Smith, Musty, hopefully Misa/Hagens) + Eklund and Celebrini have gotten comfortable at the NHL level.

In terms of contracts, a lot of bad deals come off the books this year (Labanc, Lindblom, Kunin, Hoffman, Simek), so in 2024-2025, young guys get more playing time including Zadina, Peterson, Bordeleau, Gushchin, Robins + Thrun and Muk on the back end. After 2024-2025, Burns dead money and Granlund's deal come off the books followed by Vlasic and Ferraro (and Benning/Burroughs I guess) after 2025-2026. So the only real money left on the books after 2025-2026 will be one year of Couture's deal, Hertl, and one year of dead money for Karlsson and Jones.

So it seems like everything lines up for 2026-2027 to be the year, looking forward to it.

 

[Saskatoon]

But Martin Jones was also showing promise as being on the same level as Jonathan Quick when he got that 1st.

And he was........for one season

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Clearly you ignored the last 8 words of my post.

Also, defining Mackenzie’s performance based on his stats on those bad devils teams is like dismissing what Reimer did his first year here or what Adin Hill has managed to put together despite previously playing on two horrible teams. That’s a very disappointing take from you.

I didn’t ignore it. It’s simply not possible for whatever amount he gets between now and the deadline to prove that imo. And those weren’t all bad Devils teams. What Reimer did his first year was quickly stripped away his second year which is why nobody will trust Blackwood for that extra year. Goalies are volatile. Hate the take if you want but it’s true. Don’t know how many times it needs to happen all over the place to not recognize that and limit risk appropriately.

 

[tiburon12]

I can only speculate but signing Meier and Bratt to long term contracts may make him feel unappreciated.

Yea i get that, and moves him down the lineup. But that was always going to be the case with the meier trade.

Those 3/4 line scorers don't get the ice time or are put in scoring positions and you get diminishing returns from good players.

Like, Zetterlund would probably be a better fit in that role, no?

 

[exchequer]

From a coaching perspective, Quinn's deal expires after 2024-2025, so they part ways after the Sharks draft Celebrini/Eiserman and Misa/Hagens in the next 2 drafts.

Looking a bit too far ahead. If the sharks lose another 5 games, Quinn is going to be on the hot seat. I don't any NHL team is really just going sit back and let their prospects develop.

 

[tiburon12]

Looking a bit too far ahead. If the sharks lose another 5 games, Quinn is going to be on the hot seat. I don't any NHL team is really just going sit back and let their prospects develop.

I said it before and was chewed out for it, but winning that game against Colorado would have been huge for the team and the health of the org, without compromising their standings position. It's so clear this team is a tier worse than any other team, 1 point wouldnt have and wont matter

 

[TheBeard]

I didn’t ignore it. It’s simply not possible for whatever amount he gets between now and the deadline to prove that imo. And those weren’t all bad Devils teams. What Reimer did his first year was quickly stripped away his second year which is why nobody will trust Blackwood for that extra year. Goalies are volatile. Hate the take if you want but it’s true. Don’t know how many times it needs to happen all over the place to not recognize that and limit risk appropriately.

Reimer was like 35 when it happened. Mackenzie is literally in his prime. Also, from what I remember there were offers for Reimer at the deadline and DW didn’t go for any of em. Reimer also, with the exception of last year, was consistently good, never having a save percentage below .900 prior to last year, which, as we’re seeing this year, is probably more a product of the awful defence than anything. So far this year he’s looked as good as he’s ever looked in detroit.

Lastly, no one would be bringing him in to be their starter. Merely someone reliable that can spell their starter if needed for any reason. Bringing in a guy like Mackenzie, who was highly touted only to have a rough go of it after Covid, would be way more ideal for a team looking just as much towards the future (like i said, he’s only 26), than some old retread clearly on borrowed time (cough Fleury).

 

[stator]

But Martin Jones was also showing promise as being on the same level as Jonathan Quick when he got that 1st.

Who trades a 1st for a prospect not named McDavid or Matthews (other than DW)? Jones wasn't a top prospect at the time. He had few NHL games with the Kings. There were talk among the scouts on whether Jones could shoulder a full load as a starter.

Jones started out hot with his first season in teal, and since then its been a slow downward slope for him. He's now an AHL goalie with the Marlies. Odds are good that we'll never see him back in the NHL.

Sharks are still taking caphits on Jones. At least the Sharks went to the SCF with him. That season was one heck of a ride for us fans.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

Blackwood has been a stud through each game this season. I don’t really care what he’s done in previous seasons; what I’m seeing right now from him makes me believe he can be our #1 going forward. Obviously he needs to maintain his level of play, and remain consistent. Maybe Kak can be a trade asset, and we can give a guy like Chrona a crack at things to see if he can rise to the level of Blackwoods play. We need to score some damn goals to support Blackwoods stellar play in goal. That may be the short term path to more wins.