Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Mattb124]

Timo has 36 points (19 goals) and is -23

Zetter has 32 (18 goals) points and is -22

I know plus minus isn't a great indicator. I do find the production numbers being so close kinda comical tho given how much more talented the Devils are overall than the Sharks.

Does this mean Zetterlund gonna have a 10M qualifying offer?

Timo was playing hurt until the past ~2 weeks, and his game improved accordingly once he got healthy.

 

[TheBeard]

Anyone that can’t see Timo is still the best player in the trade is just having a hard time seeing reality.

 

[Jargon]

He's just really young as a July birthday and will be 19 for the entirety of his D+2 season next year. Another example of the NHL-CHL rule being stupid in its rigidity.

It's VERY stupid. And honestly the AHL would be a really great place for him to cut his teeth (especially if they fire McCarthy...) but I don't know, I think if it's going back or NHL, I choose NHL and have him play half the games in a protected role to see how he does. He's physically mature enough to be in the league, he's not like Eklund when he got his first 9 games, where I was worried that every hit would shatter him like a little glass Swedish vase.

 

[Jargon]

Anyone that can’t see Timo is still the best player in the trade is just having a hard time seeing reality.

Yeah, I think it's clear that Timo is the best player right now in the trade. That said, he's definitely struggled with consistency (remember, two and a half seasons ago, he looked pretty bad. Boughner really helped turn his career around) -- and might need to have play run through him to really excel.

But better player or not, there's no question that for the Sharks, Muhk, Musty, Zetterlund and whoever we draft with the NJ 2nd this year is waaaay more valuable. And then, who knows what Muhk and Musty turn into,

 

[TheBeard]

Yeah, I think it's clear that Timo is the best player right now in the trade. That said, he's definitely struggled with consistency (remember, two and a half seasons ago, he looked pretty bad. Boughner really helped turn his career around) -- and might need to have play run through him to really excel.

But better player or not, there's no question that for the Sharks, Muhk, Musty, Zetterlund and whoever we draft with the NJ 2nd this year is waaaay more valuable. And then, who knows what Muhk and Musty turn into,

That could be true, but the one thing I’m starting to notice here, and it may be another coping method, is that some of us are counting our chickens before they hatch. At the end of the day we’re undoubtedly the worst team in hockey with a few kids that may make us eventually not be the worst team in hockey. Sounds obvious, I know, but until anyone of them are with the club and producing, all we have are a bunch of unscratched lotto tickets in our wallets in which we’ve convinced ourselves, “as long as we don’t scratch them they’re winners.”

 

[Jargon]

That could be true, but the one thing I’m starting to notice here, and it may be another coping method, is that some of us are counting our chickens before they hatch. At the end of the day we’re undoubtedly the worst team in hockey with a few kids that may make us eventually not be the worst team in hockey. Sounds obvious, I know, but until anyone of them are with the club and producing, all we have are a bunch of unscratched lotto tickets in our wallets in which we’ve convinced ourselves, “as long as we don’t scratch them they’re winners.”

Well, yeah, of course. I mean, right now all we have to operate on is potential -- but honestly, that's all NJD have to operate on with Meier too, right? He's really not performed like the player they thought they got, they're hopeful he's going to get better because he has been, but who knows.

All that said, I can't live in a state of perpetual "can't get too excited who knows" because ultimately I watch sports for fun and it's fun to get excited about our prospects, particularly when the team is horrific. I like rosterbating and counting chickens -- it's the only thing to cling on to during a rebuild. What's the point of this, otherwise? To be miserable for 5 years until we're good again?

Not to mention, a lot of the prospects are developing really well so far, so they're giving every reason for us to believe that they'll continue to excel.

 

[STL Shark]

That could be true, but the one thing I’m starting to notice here, and it may be another coping method, is that some of us are counting our chickens before they hatch. At the end of the day we’re undoubtedly the worst team in hockey with a few kids that may make us eventually not be the worst team in hockey. Sounds obvious, I know, but until anyone of them are with the club and producing, all we have are a bunch of unscratched lotto tickets in our wallets in which we’ve convinced ourselves, “as long as we don’t scratch them they’re winners.”

It's also the fact that talent prognosticators have our system rated very highly and there are more and more chances at getting high end prospects around the corner. Add in virtually limitless cap space and the only limiting factor in improving is the availability of good players rather than not having the cap space or assets required to go get an available commodity.

We don't know who that next available commodity will be, but if there is another Eichel deal out there or something like that, we have the pieces and cap space needed to make something happen without blowing up the prospect pool.

Grier isn't counting on probably even half of the prospects in the system to contribute on the ice for us. I would imagine he's going to flip a number of them that are just okay pieces rather than top end to fill holes in the roster rather than rely on the unlikely luck of building an entire roster of homegrown talent (something nobody has really ever done).

 

[TheBeard]

Well, yeah, of course. I mean, right now all we have to operate on is potential -- but honestly, that's all NJD have to operate on with Meier too, right? He's really not performed like the player they thought they got, they're hopeful he's going to get better because he has been, but who knows.

All that said, I can't live in a state of perpetual "can't get too excited who knows" because ultimately I watch sports for fun and it's fun to get excited about our prospects, particularly when the team is horrific. I like rosterbating and counting chickens -- it's the only thing to cling on to during a rebuild. What's the point of this, otherwise? To be miserable for 5 years until we're good again?

Not to mention, a lot of the prospects are developing really well so far, so they're giving every reason for us to believe that they'll continue to excel.

All true except the Timo part. He's shown to be a proven top line power forward. Even in this very clear down year where almost everything could go wrong did he's still pacing for about a 30 goal season extrapolated over 82 games.

It's also the fact that talent prognosticators have our system rated very highly and there are more and more chances at getting high end prospects around the corner. Add in virtually limitless cap space and the only limiting factor in improving is the availability of good players rather than not having the cap space or assets required to go get an available commodity.

We don't know who that next available commodity will be, but if there is another Eichel deal out there or something like that, we have the pieces and cap space needed to make something happen without blowing up the prospect pool.

Grier isn't counting on probably even half of the prospects in the system to contribute on the ice for us. I would imagine he's going to flip a number of them that are just okay pieces rather than top end to fill holes in the roster rather than rely on the unlikely luck of building an entire roster of homegrown talent (something nobody has really ever done).

As A Washington Commanders fan, being the offseason champs feels good when we're not in season.

 

[Le Rosbeef]

If I said something good would happen if you flipped a coin and it hit two heads in a row... how confident would you be?

Just fyi, that's more or less the same odds of having Celebrini on the Sharks next year.
Statistically, it's actually very unlikely.

 

[Shark Finn]

If I said something good would happen if you flipped a coin and it hit two heads in a row... how confident would you be?

Just fyi, that's more or less the same odds of having Celebrini on the Sharks next year.
Statistically, it's actually very unlikely.

Now do the same exercise for every other lottery-bound team.

However, securing a top-3 is still very valuable.

 

[Cas]

I think almost any prospect who is actually going to turn into anything special isn't going to be prevented from that by spending an extra year in juniors.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

That could be true, but the one thing I’m starting to notice here, and it may be another coping method, is that some of us are counting our chickens before they hatch. At the end of the day we’re undoubtedly the worst team in hockey with a few kids that may make us eventually not be the worst team in hockey. Sounds obvious, I know, but until anyone of them are with the club and producing, all we have are a bunch of unscratched lotto tickets in our wallets in which we’ve convinced ourselves, “as long as we don’t scratch them they’re winners.”

What are you seeing that you're determining as counting our chickens before they hatch?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I think almost any prospect who is actually going to turn into anything special isn't going to be prevented from that by spending an extra year in juniors.

I think that's probably true but it doesn't mean their best path forward is to go back to juniors and repeat that sort of performance when you're getting older and more mature and a lot of your competition is getting worse because a fresh crop of players is coming in. With Musty, I'd rather him struggle in the NHL next season before being sent to the minors for his age 20 season than spend a year doing the same thing in juniors.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

If I said something good would happen if you flipped a coin and it hit two heads in a row... how confident would you be?

Just fyi, that's more or less the same odds of having Celebrini on the Sharks next year.
Statistically, it's actually very unlikely.

It's also statistically the best we can do...it's still more likely than happening for anyone else.

 

[Le Rosbeef]

Now do the same exercise for every other lottery-bound team.

However, securing a top-3 is still very valuable.

Absolutely.

I'm just trying to temper/point out that it's far from inevitable. Best doesn't mean good odds.

 

[Shark Finn]

Absolutely.

I'm just trying to temper/point out that it's far from inevitable. Best doesn't mean good odds.

I'm sure we all remember what happened last year. Besides, we are Sharks fans. Nothing good will ever happen.

 

[Hodge]

If I said something good would happen if you flipped a coin and it hit two heads in a row... how confident would you be?

Just fyi, that's more or less the same odds of having Celebrini on the Sharks next year.
Statistically, it's actually very unlikely.

Way more confident than if you told me something good would happen if I flipped a coin and it hit three heads in a row, which is the odds of winning the lottery from the #2 slot.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I think almost any prospect who is actually going to turn into anything special isn't going to be prevented from that by spending an extra year in juniors.

Fair point.

Reminder today that we had hints about Wilson's incompetence...he originally signed Boedkker to an invalid contract!

 

[Hodge]

Fair point.

Reminder today that we hads hints about Wilson's incompetence...he originally signed Boedkker to an invalid contract!

Wasn't that the same year DeBoer dressed an illegal lineup and Mueller was ejected from the game? It was dumb, dumber & dumbest between those two and Steve Spott.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Wasn't that the same year DeBoer dressed an illegal lineup and Mueller was ejected from the game? It was dumb, dumber & dumbest between those two and Steve Spott.

I don't really view these sorts of errors as enough to claim incompetence. Coaches and managers make mistakes and either correct them as the case was with Boedker or are held accountable for them in some form or fashion like DeBoer did with Mueller in that instance. They aren't going to be perfect and some mistakes are embarrassing but it happens.

 

[stator]

He's just really young as a July birthday and will be 19 for the entirety of his D+2 season next year. Another example of the NHL-CHL rule being stupid in its rigidity.

I agree, he's just a lesson plan for the younger guys in the CHL to get better.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

I think almost any prospect who is actually going to turn into anything special isn't going to be prevented from that by spending an extra year in juniors.

This is a fair point. However, as I was with Eklund, I think the org should give Musty his 9 games and see how he does. If he shows he belongs in the NHL then keep him there.

I don’t think it needs to be overthought either way. If he looks like he’s not quite ready, cool, send him back give him stuff to work on, and slide an ELC year. On the other hand if he looks like he can be successful and play 60-70 NHL games in a middle 6 role better than another forward on the roster, don’t send him back just to save the ELC year.

Basically, when tradeoffs and outcomes are negligible between a set of choices, I’d prefer they just play it straight up rather than trying to get overly clever with things.

 

[Erep]

Since people are talking about ELC years, I think it is worth bringing up, where the Sharks are right now, it is arguably better to burn ELCs than be patient with them.

Extending them a year gets you one huge discount year 4 years down the line. Where the Sharks are now, it is very unlikely there is a desperate cap crunch in 4 years.

Rushing a player to the NHL gets a year or two of under standard play on their record, and potentially leads to contracts that are 8 year steals like Jack Hughes, which set up your franchise going into a competitive window.

That said, whatever is best for the player's development needs to be put first, but saving ELC's really shouldn't be a consideration.

 

[matt trick]

Timo has 36 points (19 goals) and is -23

Zetter has 32 (18 goals) points and is -22

I know plus minus isn't a great indicator. I do find the production numbers being so close kinda comical tho given how much more talented the Devils are overall than the Sharks.

Does this mean Zetterlund gonna have a 10M qualifying offer?

Kind of crazy, let’s say we draft a future #2/3 C with Vegas 1st, and a #4 RHD with NJs 2nd we could turn Hertl and Meier into a second line, second pairing, and #3 C.

Musty-Enstrom/1st-Zetterlund
Enstrom/1st
Muk-2nd

We’d have converted $18M of 30s Hertl and a Meier into ~23 year old middle third of the line-up.

Obviously it’s more likely that 3-4/6 of those assets bust, but still. Top of the lineup needs to come from our 1sts, but considering the cupboard was completely bare, got to give Grier a lot of credit for restocking the farm. In addition to 3-4 premier assets added to Smith, probably need to double the mid tier as well. It’s a journey, but we’re ahead of schedule. Now if we could just get a certain junior shark added to the mix.

 

[timorous me]

I think Musty very well could--and maybe should--be with the Sharks next year. The production this year is obviously really important, but there's also his size and strength. He might be young next season with his 19th birthday this summer, but not all 19-year-olds are created equally. With that in mind, it might be better for him to be with the Sharks next season than for Will Smith to be in the NHL, since Smith could struggle more physically.

And I can't help but think that keeping Musty all the way through training camp and seeing how he'd do in preseason games this season was a tease for this coming season. Anyway, he wouldn't have to play all 82 games; he could be used like Leo Carlsson, sitting out to rest/watch occasionally, and they could let him go play in the WJC on top of that. I think if he gets his nine game trial to start the year he's going to make it clear that this is the best path for his development.