Speculation: 2023-24-25-26 Sharks Roster Discussion

[spintops]

That's not a winning team with assets we would have to give. Also you would have to pay premium money for Celebrini, McDavid and Matthews all needing to be the number 1 guy. I don't see this working out at all. Depth and defence will get killed in the playoffs.
Best players all together works only on international tournaments where you can build the team you want without thinking about cap space. Even that doesn't guarantee a win (Canada this year both Olympics/World's)

There's some jest in that post, but a team can 100% make Celebrini and McDavid work on a team. Exploding cap, the roster is still cheap(young) McDavid has shown he won't ask for the percentage of the cap he actually deserves (takes discount to win), and it's freaking McDavid.

 

[BaybayShark]

With Eklund off the books how much do we have to spend now to reach the cap floor?

 

[STL Shark]

Was thinking the same thing

9 + 27 + top 10 protected 2027 1st for Harley + Lyubushkin + Faksa

Stars flip 9, Bourque and other stuff for Larkin while still having enough room left over to keep Robertson

Probably a pipe dream though

I don't see Harley as a difference maker though. I think he's fine, but he took a pretty decent sized step back this year. He's rough in his own end and plays way smaller than his frame would indicate he should play.

Giving up that haul of assets for a LH Evan Bouchard type of D-Man that doesn't play to his size while already making $10.5M is scary to me. I get that options are limited, but I don't love the way Harley plays when there is potential to be much more (and going into age 25 season with a fat contract, I don't see him changing his style).

 

[Palaeontologists]

With Eklund off the books how much do we have to spend now to reach the cap floor?

Leo Carlson 2x15 f*** it. He won't say no to that amount of money.

 

[Hodge]

I don't see Harley as a difference maker though. I think he's fine, but he took a pretty decent sized step back this year. He's rough in his own end and plays way smaller than his frame would indicate he should play.

Giving up that haul of assets for a LH Evan Bouchard type of D-Man that doesn't play to his size while already making $10.5M is scary to me. I get that options are limited, but I don't love the way Harley plays when there is potential to be much more (and going into age 25 season with a fat contract, I don't see him changing his style).

Harley is more of a difference maker than any of the defensemen in this class realistically project to be and you're not stuck waiting years for one of them to develop. 10.5 will soon be a bargain for a top pairing D. There aren't many better targets out there on the blueline.

 

[matt trick]

With Eklund off the books how much do we have to spend now to reach the cap floor?

About $29M, and $18M more to hit the ceiling.

Needing new Deals:
RFAs:
Graf- $5.5M
Kesselring- $5M
Muk- $1.8M
Ostapchuk- $1.6M

UFAs:
Reaves- $2M
Desharnis- $3M
Ferraro- $6M

That would still leave us with $5M to hit the floor (removing Cags, adding Stenberg on an ELC), and in need of one d-man. Graf could be higher for longer term, Kess could get a shorter deal for less as well. I could see Grier going long term on Chucky for something like $3M hoping it'd be a bargain in 2+ years. It also includes Couture so there's another $8M to play with.

Obviously, I don't see Ferraro back, but the space is there if they swing and miss on other D.

 

[STL Shark]

Harley is more of a difference maker than any of the defensemen in this class realistically project to be and you're not stuck waiting years for one of them to develop. 10.5 will soon be a bargain for a top pairing D. There aren't many better targets out there on the blueline.

So you like soft offensemen now is how I am taking this? Because that is what Harley is.

 

[Hodge]

So you like soft offensemen now is how I am taking this? Because that is what Harley is.

He really isn't

Harley is in that Byram/Dobson tier of guys who are better at driving offense than they are at defending but are still at worst slightly below average defensively

Of course I'd prefer a defenseman who's elite on both sides of the puck but do you really want to stake the success of this rebuild on pulling off a miracle trade for Sanderson or Seider?

 

[STL Shark]

He really isn't

Harley is in that Byram/Dobson tier of guys who are better at driving offense than they are at defending but are still at worst slightly below average defensively

Of course I'd prefer a defenseman who's elite on both sides of the puck but do you really want to stake the success of this rebuild on pulling off a miracle trade for Sanderson or Seider?

Ask Dallas fans how they feel about Harley in his own end. He threw up a massive turd this playoff season, and overall had a regression this season as soon as he signed his new deal.

If you are just looking for the offense, I think there are guys that can do it that you don't have to pay that haul for because they're not 6'3 215 lbs, but play just as big as Harley does thanks to him being unengaged physically and in his own end. I think Rielly could be that guy for a whole lot cheaper.

 

[Friday]

Feels like MG might have made that Eklund trade with the expectation that the 9th was going right into Byram. Seems like there is also no intention to be picking at 9 either. 9 +27 is being package for something. Maybe the backup plan is to move from 9 to 6 ish and take a top 4 D prospect. Not surrreee but something silly is happening in the next 2 days

 

[Hodge]

Ask Dallas fans how they feel about Harley in his own end. He threw up a massive turd this playoff season, and overall had a regression this season as soon as he signed his new deal.

If you are just looking for the offense, I think there are guys that can do it that you don't have to pay that haul for because they're not 6'3 215 lbs, but play just as big as Harley does thanks to him being unengaged physically and in his own end. I think Rielly could be that guy for a whole lot cheaper.

Wasn't Harley playing through a significant injury for most of this season?

Anyway it's not that Harley is a perfect player but that there aren't many good alternative uses of 9OA

Drafting a player, even if we trade up and have our pick of the defensemen, gets you someone who's years away and may never be as good as Harley

Worse yet once you use the pick to draft a guy the asset becomes illiquid as valuations on the player you select will vary widely from team to team

With Byram off the board other semi-realistic targets on defense are objectively worse options like Brandt Clarke or Kaiden Guhle

 

[Friday]

Wasn't Harley playing through a significant injury for most of this season?

Anyway it's not that Harley is a perfect player but that there aren't many good alternative uses of 9OA

Drafting a player, even if we trade up and have our pick of the defensemen, gets you someone who's years away and may never be as good as Harley

Worse yet once you use the pick to draft a guy the asset becomes illiquid as valuations on the player you select will vary widely from team to team

With Byram off the board other semi-realistic targets on defense are objectively worse options like Brandt Clarke or Kaiden Guhle

Worse, but are you comfy paying Harley 10.5M the next 5 years? I hope there is someone random out there we had no expectation of being available. Thoughts and prayers haha

 

[Hodge]

Worse, but are you comfy paying Harley 10.5M the next 5 years? I hope there is someone random out there we had no expectation of being available. Thoughts and prayers haha

I'd be fine doing that for the same reason I would have been fine paying Byram 12M+ if we had acquired him: there just aren't enough good players available to reasonably worry about a soon to be 120M cap ceiling

 

[matt trick]

This is a few years down the line, but it looks like more franchises (and therefore, more expansion drafts) are coming.

It'll be interesting to see if they a) bring in multiple franchises concurrently b) use the same expansion draft rules.

Assuming they do use the same rules, you kind of what a 'star and scrubs' type model where you have the 7 best forwards, 3 best d-men, and best goalie you can get with a bunch of equivalently valued 4/5 d-men, and 3rd line forwards.

Given the dearth of talent, I think the age of the top 4 d-men is largely going to be over, as a league with maybe 110 top 4 d-men will soon have 136 spots for them, meaning 26 teams will likely be short one.

Anaheim's failure to plan for this (buy out Bieska!) cost them Theodore. Minnesota's equal talent throughout the roster, cost them Tuch. Plenty of time to plan, but it's something Grier should probably think about.

We're assembling more top end talent then most, let's make sure we don't have to give away a Theodore level piece by not planning intentionally.

 

[mogambomoroo]

Harley is basically in the same situation as Byram, both playing behind a true 1D with a lot to prove. I think both looked good when given a bigger stage and both would be the 1D for the Sharks.
I don't think it's a bad bet to go for Harley if he's available. I'm talking with 9th overall+ of course, not 2nd overall.

 

[matt trick]

Worse, but are you comfy paying Harley 10.5M the next 5 years? I hope there is someone random out there we had no expectation of being available. Thoughts and prayers haha

Easily. We're going to struggle to hit the floor this year, and won't be near the ceiling next year. We will have $10M in incremental cap and Couture, Goodrow, Jones, Vlasic, Karlsson, and Mack's Bonus carryover of $16.5M can collectively be replaced by a single $1M player meaning we'll have like $25M open in addition to whatever gap we have this year.

Gaduette, Ned, and Orlov's 11.5 will need to replaced though it'll likely cost at least that much.

 

[Patty Ice]

Can't trade Wennberg after just extending him.

I wouldn't really like #9 for Hronek. He's a proven player and has a great contract, but his age is a bit of an issue. Who is the next Noah Dobson?

After seeing Hertl in the playoffs, Vegas should have to pay someone to take him.

I think I'm falling in this camp.

I think at this point Hronek is just being overvalued because A) he's a righty and B) he has a great contract.

But as a guy you are going to count on as your number 1, he is very underwhelming. He's a great two way player for sure but at his size and age, how much more of this current Hronek are we going to get and will it still coincide with the rise of our non-Mack guys?

I don't think I trade a top 10 pick for that.

 

[Cas]

Hertl has a three team trade list. He's not accepting a trade back to San Jose, he's going to Florida/Tampa/Dallas/Carolina/Colorado/Minnesota.

 

[Shark Finn]

Feels like MG might have made that Eklund trade with the expectation that the 9th was going right into Byram. Seems like there is also no intention to be picking at 9 either. 9 +27 is being package for something. Maybe the backup plan is to move from 9 to 6 ish and take a top 4 D prospect. Not surrreee but something silly is happening in the next 2 days

My thoughts exactly. I'm a tad nervous.

 

[STL Shark]

Wasn't Harley playing through a significant injury for most of this season?

Anyway it's not that Harley is a perfect player but that there aren't many good alternative uses of 9OA

Drafting a player, even if we trade up and have our pick of the defensemen, gets you someone who's years away and may never be as good as Harley

Worse yet once you use the pick to draft a guy the asset becomes illiquid as valuations on the player you select will vary widely from team to team

With Byram off the board other semi-realistic targets on defense are objectively worse options like Brandt Clarke or Kaiden Guhle

It's not necessarily 9th overall that I am worried about. It is the additional assets and their purchasing power that I have trepidation about as we figure out additional needs for this team to go from fringe playoff team to contender.

I think you can get about the same value from Rielly as Harley in the near term as a LH offenseman while sorting out the rest of the group. Rielly costs next to nothing to acquire and can be moved off of easily if he doesn't work out. Harley is a way longer term commitment while still having warts and costing more upfront assets to acquire (thus limiting future moves that are inevitably going to be needed to contend).

 

[weastern bias]

 

[67 others]

I wanna be the guy: The movie, the game...

That game gave me nightmares for 2 months. It was harder than the time I beat Battletoads

I think I got past the part you fight Mike Tyson and eventually quit lol

 

[Palaeontologists]

There's 22 active players in the NHL who wear 71. The only ones that matter are Malkin and Macklin.

 

[weastern bias]

The only one that matter are Macklin.

FTFY, TBH

 

[Saskatoon]

We don't know who the prospect was but in terms of pick value 9+27 is actually pretty close to 4+45

Guessing Crevier being better than whoever we were offering tipped the scales in Chicago's favor

Hronek would be solid but 3 years older than Byram without any remaining upside and like you said he might not even waive

I thought I say the pick value difference between our offers was close to a late 1st rounder - which isn't likely to turn into anything amazing but value wise we definitely got outbid.