Speculation: - 2023-24-25-26 Sharks Roster Discussion | Page 1318 | HFBoards - NHL Message Board and Forum for National Hockey League
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Speculation: 2023-24-25-26 Sharks Roster Discussion

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weastern bias said:
Kesselring does have a track record of success in Arizona and Utah as well as winning gold at the WHC under Warsofsky, last year was the off season that I think Grier sees as an aberration
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He was literally a #6 defenseman in Arizona and Utah, the casual fan will see big and almost 30 points and assume he was far better than he was. I don't even have that low of an opinion of Grier, he has to think "potential".
 
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sampler said:
Exactly. I wish Smith and Celly were not such close friends, because I could see Smith being worth a fortune on the trade market, but I actually don't think he's all that good at hockey. Without Celly, I bet he's a serviceable middle six winger, good hockey IQ, vision, an shot, but slow as molasses and soft.

Jumbo creating Cheechoo helped us land heatley. Jumbo creating Seto helped land Burns.

I wonder if Celebrini can serve a similar purpose? The sharks have so much great young players, but we cannot afford to keep them all if they all explode. Fair long term estimates include 15+ for celly, 10+ smith, 10+ misa, 10+ Stenberg?, 10+ dick, 5+ graf, 8+ cherny, 8+ asky....

obviously, some of those guys may not develop into high level players, but if enough do, the sharks will find the cap to be a big problem in 4 years, just as Dallas is running into issues with Robertson. However, if Celly can create a star out of a few of those guys, then grier can strategically trade one or two for a giant futures package to ensure mutiple ELC players each year. It feels like the key to long term (10-20 years) competitive rosters centers around either consistently finding incredible under the radar value plays (like Raddysh, Walker, or Gostisbehere), or trading overvalued guys for nice packages.

Wonder if grier can take advantage of the Celebrini/Thornton effect to keep a steady stream of top picks ad good young players on ELCs providing key cap value.
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Oh for f***s sake. Not good at hockey? Check out Mack's 115 points this year video. Because I'm a sicko, been mean to do this for a while, (and love the video), here's the breakdown.

Smith had a role on other plays (like makes the third or fourth pass on PP before a goal...) but I didn't highlight things that most of our top 9 could go where he didn't get a point, and highlighted it where any of them could have done it, but he got a point.

There's a surprising number of turnovers forced, and there's a ton of 'wires the shot' but he was open and/or arrives at just the right moment to convert a scoring chance. It's debatable whether these things are 'high skill', but Smith does them with far, far greater consistency then anyone else on the team (other than Mack)- or at least based on this video they result in goals with greater frequency when he does them.

In terms of Mack points the only other things that stand out are 1) Klingberg's ability with time 2) Graf's ability to create points through turnovers 3) Igor is really f***ing toolsy
  1. Smith well weighted entry pass, Tof scores
  2. Smith goes to front of net (3x)- wins netfront battle to get puck to Ferraro, who scores
  3. Smith pass to Klingberg, who does give and shoot with Mack who scores
  4. (no point) Smith screens, Mack scores
  5. Nice pass to slot, Mack scores
  6. Recovers puck, Tof to Mack who scores
  7. Smith goes to pain, rebound scores
  8. Smith with near assist to Mack, doesn’t score, recovers puck, passes to Smith who wires it
  9. Recovers puck, goes so sneaky area, Mack sets him for wide open shot (he wired it though)
  10. Mack wins faceoff to Smith, shot stopped, gets rebound, blasts shot.
  11. (no point) Forechecks, prevents zone exist, Klingberg recovers to Tof, to Mack scores
  12. Smith touch pass to Klingberg who wires it
  13. Slow developing play to Smith on the point, wires it from distance
  14. Smith drop pass, Mack goes tot ehs slot and loses it. Kurashev recovers, sneds it Mack in frotn of the net, he and Smith in the paint hacking away, Smith finishes
  15. Smith forechecking, creates turnover, to Mack, Mack sores
  16. Tick tack toe- Klingberg to Celebrini to Smith.
  17. (minimal skill)Smith and Ek pass back and forth to Mack who then does the rest.
  18. Smith great pass to Kurashev in the slot, scores
  19. (minimal skill) Smith touch to Mack who finds Klingberg who scores
  20. Wenny, Mack, and Smith three man game down low, culiminates with Smith going backdoor for a great set up from Wenny
  21. Smith in a soft area, broken play, Macklin gets it to him all alone
  22. Smith creates turnover, gets it to Mack to Tof who scores
  23. Mack drop pass on entry, Will dangles two, and scores on a nice wrister, ridiculous skill and timing
  24. (no point) Smith recovers attempt to clear zone, gets it to Mack who gets Graf a tap in
  25. (no point)- 90 seconds left, Smith prevents easy breakout, gets to Wenny who gets it to Mack who sets up Klingberg to tie it up against Toronto
  26. Follows up Mack shot by going to net and finshed a puck tha would have been reocvered
  27. (Minimal skill) two man game with Tof high to low, Tof throws through the paint, finishes by Mack
  28. Ridiculous backhand pass to Mack who wires it
  29. Same exact play as the one before but against Van
  30. Nice pass to Smith in a quiet area, delaus and wires it short side
  31. (Minimal skill) Sets up Klingberg who wires it from the point
  32. Smith forechecks, creates turnover, but can’t get it to Graf, Graf creates turnover to Mack, Mack gets it bakc to Smith who feigns shot, and sets up Graf for a tap in
  33. Smith creates neutral zone turnover, Mack enters misses shot, gets rebound, and sets up Smith who wires it
  34. Smith quick pass to Mack with Ingram out of the ice, Mack makes no mistake
  35. Smith bats Graf’s shot out of the air for a tap-in
  36. Tick tack toe- Smith sets up Graf for a taping
  37. (Minimal skill)- recovers puck, delays and holds up for Mack, who does it all to score
  38. Eye contact with Mack on PP, slides back door for a tap in
  39. Smith touch pass to Celebrini blasts it
  40. Celebrini creates turnover, Smith recovers, pass to Mack who scores
  41. (no point) Recovery on PP, Mack ultimately shoots it off Tof and in
  42. (Minimal skill) Smith glides around kind of not doing much on the PP, find Mack who does the rest
  43. Smith give and go with Mack, Smith finds Cherny who wires it into an open net
  44. (no point) Wenny trying to pass to open Smith, deflected back to Wenny scores
  45. (Minimal skill) Finds Wenny for clean entry, who finds Mack who scores
  46. Beautiful entry by Mack who finds Smith, wires it.
  47. Crazy knock down of puck but can’t get control, creates 50-50, Graf recovers to Smith who baits defender, and finds Mack for a one-timer.
  48. (Minimal skill) low pressure three man high on PP Klingberg, Celebrini, Smith, Klingberg finishes mack pass.
  49. Fins soft area on pass from Celebrini to Graf who finds Smith for a tap in
  50. (minimal skill) Same three man low pressure game as above, this time from Klingberg to Mack
  51. (no point) Screens Lankinen on Cherny shot from Mack
  52. Creates Turnover to Cherny who gains zone and gets to Mack for a tap in
  53. (no point) nice recovery and blind turnaround pass to retain possession, then Mack goes crazy and Cherny scores
  54. (Minimal skill)- Mack kind of does a bunch of Mack things, Smith goes to the soft area and scores a tap in, ties Jumbo
  55. (Minimal skill) Gives puck to Mack (who does that I think intentional but absurd backward skate pass to Klingberg, Mack goes to the soft area Kling finds him and buries it for the record
 
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TheBeard said:
Benson is also playing about 3 minutes less a game and had a solid playoff run. One is a one-dimensional player while the other is a lot more well-rounded.
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Cap hits are largely based on raw counting stats, age and positional value

They're both wingers and both the same age, the higher scoring player is going to get paid more
 
Dwagz said:
"doesn't have a great amount of trade value", but we should fork over a young 20goal scorer who's elite on the PK, and will also be under a valuable contract with further team control.
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3rd line wingers due for a big raise based on a fluke season don't have a great amount of trade value either
 
Zarzh said:
He was literally a #6 defenseman in Arizona and Utah, the casual fan will see big and almost 30 points and assume he was far better than he was. I don't even have that low of an opinion of Grier, he has to think "potential".
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He was 5th in TOI for ARI in 2024 and 3rd in TOI for UTA in 2025, but go off with your inaccurate self
 
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weastern bias said:
He was 5th in TOI for ARI in 2024 and 3rd in TOI for UTA in 2025, but go off with your inaccurate self
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Literally wrong.

Do you not understand how to sort by TOI/game? Or are you trying to argue he was ahead of Marino in the depth chart because somehow 21 minutes a night when everyone is healthy is less than 17 minutes when there are injuries?
 
Dwagz said:
Wrong again, Sherwood cost a pair of top half 2nds. Don't even need to go outside the organization for a comparable.

Give Graf the Jackson Blake contract.
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Sherwood is the most physical forward in the league and had multiple seasons of scoring at a 20+ goal pace when we acquired him.

If you give Graf the Jackson Blake contract his trade value will absolutely crater after next season when his 18% shooting percentage inevitably declines. We're better off getting ahead of that now.
 
Zarzh said:
Literally wrong.

Do you not understand how to sort by TOI/game? Or are you trying to argue he was ahead of Marino in the depth chart because somehow 21 minutes a night when everyone is healthy is less than 17 minutes when there are injuries?
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herm, maybe Marino should have played more than 35 games, herm

But you're right, I also consider the guy who missed 57% of the season to be my top-pair tentpole and not a functional non-entity on my team, this is the way smart people think
 
Hodge said:
Sherwood is the most physical forward in the league and had multiple seasons of scoring at a 20+ goal pace when we acquired him.

If you give Graf the Jackson Blake contract his trade value will absolutely crater after next season when his 18% shooting percentage inevitably declines. We're better off getting ahead of that now.
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Graf percent crater

Sherwood never regress

Tough man hit

Tough man different
 
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weastern bias said:
Graf percent crater

Sherwood never regress

Tough man hit

Tough man different
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Sherwood's shot rate means he will score 20 goals in a season even at his career average SH% of 11.3

Graf's shot rate means he needs to shoot 18% to score 20 goals in a season
 
Hodge said:
Sherwood is the most physical forward in the league and had multiple seasons of scoring at a 20+ goal pace when we acquired him.

If you give Graf the Jackson Blake contract his trade value will absolutely crater after next season when his 18% shooting percentage inevitably declines. We're better off getting ahead of that now.
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Graf wouldn't even be as old as Sherwood NOW when that contract ends. I guess Graf's plateau'd @ 23, Time to give him away so we can make room for Ty Dellandrea.

Also, funny to bring up Graf's shooting % and not Sherwoods
 
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Hodge said:
Sherwood's shot rate means he will score 20 goals in a season even at his career average SH% of 11.3

Graf's shot rate means he needs to shoot 18% to score 20 goals in a season
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Compare rate stat

7 year age gap

216 game play gap

This make sense

This smart
 
Dwagz said:
Graf wouldn't even be as old as Sherwood NOW when that contract ends. I guess Graf's plateau'd @ 23, Time to give him away so we can make room for Ty Dellandrea.

Also, funny to bring up Graf's shooting % and not Sherwoods
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Paying Graf $6 million a year to be like our 8th best forward is not a good use of cap space.

If we can trade him for a top 4 defenseman, even an older one like Rielly or Nurse, we should do it.
 
Hodge said:
Paying Graf $6 million a year to be like our 8th best forward is not a good use of cap space.

If we can trade him for a top 4 defenseman, even an older one like Rielly or Nurse, we should do it.
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Blake has 1st round pedigree and makes $5.1m
I'd expect Graf to be in the 4-5.25 range.

you forgot the word 'bad' before top defenseman.
Rather pay Graf 6 than Nurse 9.25 or Rielly 7.5 for the next 4 years.
 
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Dwagz said:
Blake has 1st round pedigree and makes $5.1m
I'd expect Graf to be in the 4-5.25 range.

you forgot the word 'bad' before top defenseman.
Rather pay Graf 6 than Nurse 9.25 or Rielly 7.5 for the next 4 years.
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Graf is probably going to end up on the 4th line when we draft Stenbust.

The contract you're suggesting will become an untradeable albatross within a year.

At least Rielly and Nurse fill a positional need in our lineup.
 
Hodge said:
Graf is probably going to end up on the 4th line when we draft Stenbust.

The contract you're suggesting will become an untradeable albatross within a year.

At least Rielly and Nurse fill a positional need in our lineup.
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Why would we want to trade a good player immediately after signing him? You think we should move Macklin and Will? ELC's up so no longer a safe bet. Will's played more 4th line time than Graf last year, can't wait for that albatross extension!

Rielly and Nurse are also albatross untradeable contracts. They don't fit a need. We don't need cinderblocks. If he's not good enough for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations, why the hell would he be good enough for us?

Big fan of Stenberg, hope we draft him.
 
weastern bias said:
herm, maybe Marino should have played more than 35 games, herm

But you're right, I also consider the guy who missed 57% of the season to be my top-pair tentpole and not a functional non-entity on my team, this is the way smart people think
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If he couldn't break 18 minutes on a team with a bunch of injuries, that isn't a positive.
 
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